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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    If you look at these stats, it seems to fly in the face of assembling the best team and winning possible The Brewers were 12th out of MLB teams in Runs/Game this year, 9th in 2009 and 17th in 2008. I don't think the offense was holding them back. You would have to demonstrate that the Brewers offense is being negatively impacted because of their balance before using their record as any kind of evidence. I'd say you should have at least 2 or 3 guys in your regular lineup that are left handed or switch hitters, because it allows you to alternate a few lefties and righties in your batting order. I would rather structure my lineup for the 3 or so times that my lineup faces the starter, and not focus on a few relief appearances.
  2. kramnoj
    Ultimately, and this is something I have said many times, we need to stop putting our worst defenders at first just because we have no other options. Calling Casey our worst defender is a presumption. I appreciate your response, but I just don't see Casey as having less mobility than Prince.
  3. kramnoj
    If the Dodgers want to replace Manny, they presumably have the option of bringing back Manny. They could do it without trading players, and I don't think that Manny is going to get paid more than Prince in 2011, but that's just a guess.
  4. kramnoj
    How do you think the typical thought process of trying to decide what a manager's resume and market position suggests works? Personally, I would approach it with a quantifiable method as opposed to just guesstimating. I said that I think teams look at resumes and pay market value based off that. Given that I said that, why are you asking me what I think the thought process is? What specifically are you asking that I haven't already said? They use a quantifiable method based on resume and market value to offer a contract, but I don't believe that is necessarily tied to the value the manager will bring to the team. I assume most MLB front offices are at least as capable as run of the mill companies that can pull that off when hiring employees I am not under the impress that most run of the mill companies base their hiring on any sort of value specific based process. I don't really know how they could. I think most companies hire people based on resume and market value.
  5. kramnoj
    I don't think guesstimate and quantify mean the same thing. I haven't read anything that indicates that a GM or an owner looks at a manager and tries to accurately measure what pros and cons a manager has and what impact that will have on the team's bottom line, or how many wins they will be responsible for tactically or how many wins they will be responsible for by managing their players. What I see is that front offices find the manager they feel to be the best fit and pay what the resume and market suggests.
  6. kramnoj
    Seems like you are saying that teams might not even be trying to properly value managers. I find that extremely unlikely. I see no evidence of teams trying to quantify manager value and then pay accordingly. Of course, this could be happening and not be reported. What I see is that managers are paid according to their resume, and are paid relative to the market value. We have some idea what baseball teams are willing to spend for a win, so either teams have no idea how to estimate the value of a manager or they think it's small, relative to their peers. Again, this is where I disagree. Let me provide an example. The Rangers paid ARod a salary that was actually less than his value, but higher than what the market was offering. The Rangers would have been better off if they had reduced their offer closer to what the market was offering. They would have received even more value, and had extra resources to allow to spend on the team.
  7. kramnoj
    This is born out by the fact that the Brewers were approximately 10 games under .500 vs. RH starters during 2008-2010 while finishing about 15 over .500 during the same timeframe. I don't see anything born out here. I see you saying the Brewers were a winning team over that time span. The goal isn't to accumulate the best record vs RHP, it's to assemble the best team and record possible. I would say a good break even number would be 3 lefties in the regular lineup, or possibly two with Fielder in the mix. I'm curious, why would you say that is a good number?
  8. kramnoj
    Wouldn't a discrepency like that break a bunch of free market assumptions? Are you suggesting collusion or something? How is what I'm talking about breaking free market assumptions? I'm describing the free market. A market value that applies to players hasn't been assigned to coaches. That is the market that we now have. The market is what teams have paid for managers. Teams may pay a different amount for wins each year. Not because the value of a win changes in any given year, but because the teams competing for wins will vary each year. I don't think collusion is at play here. I would call it more a common belief. There isn't an active movement to depress coaches salaries, but there isn't momentum to quantify a manager's value and pay accordingly either. Too often people look at the assigned value for players and think that is going to be meaningful when it comes to predicting the player's offers when it comes to FA. An actual attempt to understand the market in any given year is often lacking.
  9. kramnoj
    You can't consistently start a lineup with 7 right handed hitters. Why not? What is the break even number? What is the gap between having a left handed hitter just to have one, versus having a superior right handed hitter? I would like to assemble a team that gives me the best chance to win most of the time, and look at handedness as my last priority.
  10. kramnoj
    Gamel is known for not making much of an effort to play 3B well I think that is overstating things. We have a comment that he hasn't responded to coaching on improving his throwing, but I don't think we have reason to believe that he plays without much effort. He certainly didn't display that in his limited time in the majors. If Gamel didn't react as well as the staff liked in response to coaching, the staff is partially to blame. If Gamel really wasn't listening to coaches, you bench him until he does. What one accepts becomes the standard.
  11. kramnoj
    I can only see McGehee being a worst defensive first baseman than Prince Why do you feel that way? Casey was able to play 2B. Not very well, but he could play it. In what areas do you feel Casey is deficient in defensively compared to Prince?
  12. kramnoj
    If a team is willing to spend about $4 mil per win in free agency, they must think managers have little to offer the team and/or they are all roughly the same in talent. A team could think a manager is worth two wins, but there's no reason to pay the manager $8M/year if the market for a manager isn't more than $3.5M/year.
  13. kramnoj
    You end up agreeing with his main conclusion so I don't really see where you are going with this. What do you think his main conclusion is? Given that he said that Casey needs to move to an easier position, I disagree strongly.
  14. kramnoj
    Are you really going to this much trouble just to rally for "not good" over "bad"? What trouble? All I said was that being 16th out of 30 teams isn't bad, and that a UZR/150 of -4 isn't bad. Anything else I said was in response to another post. It's clear to anyone that wants to read logan's posts that he isn't calling Casey McGehee the worst fielder in the league or anything like that. Strawman. Where is this coming from? This just seems like an argument over semantics, and not anything constructive. Semantics? Words have actual meanings. Casey was slightly below average in 2010, and not at all good in 2009. We don't have sufficient evidence to say that he can't handle 3B. A UZR of -4 certainly isn't proof of that. logan isn't trying to use that, he *is* using that -- just not as his entire argument. Saying that something is 16th out of 19 isn't proof of anything. If I were to list the 19 most prolific posters here and said that you were 16th best in terms of offering insight, that's not damning in any way. That wouldn't tell anything about what kind of distance separated you from #1 or #19. It's meaningless without context. Listing rankings without context and using that to support the idea that Casey shouldn't stay at 3B is silly. And the actual context contradicts the claim.
  15. kramnoj
    Here it seems to me you are drawing conclusions from 1 year of UZR for McGehee in order to dispute someone's opinion from stats and the eye test. logan is trying to use the fact that Casey being 16th out of 19th in UZR/150 in 2010 is evidence that Casey shouldn't stay at 3B, because he can't handle it. All I am doing is presenting the actual evidence that by UZR/150, Casey didn't perform badly in 2010. I in this argument am not taking my own position on UZR, I am merely pointing out that Casey's UZR performance in 2010 doesn't support logan's claim. I personally find it hard to come to the conclusion that McGehee is slightly below average at 3B because of a -4 UZR this year and find it odd that you came to that conclusion. I am not taking the position that Casey is slightly below average at 3B. That is what UZR says about him in 2010. This is especially troubling when McGehee was -22.0 UZR/150 last year, yet you didn't include that in your post. Given that I was responding to a post talking about 2010 stats, including 2009 stats wasn't relevant. Why do you find that odd? UZR is so subject to small samples that Braun and Hart both improved by the end of the season... This isn't an example of me hating UZR. This is me acknowledging the limitations of UZR.
  16. kramnoj
    It's interesting how perceptions form. I'd encourage you to find a post where I even hint at hating UZR. But it doesn't even matter if I like UZR or not. logan used it, while shrinking the pool of players, to somehow claim that he has damning evidence about how bad Casey was defensively this year. The actual stat, which compares Casey to all players who played at 3B this year, says something quite different that what logan claimed.
  17. kramnoj
    Casey's UZR/150 this year was -4. That's not anywhere near bad. It's slightly below average.
  18. kramnoj
    Pretty damning in my opinion. It's only damning if you compare him to a pool of 19 players. If you compare him to the number of teams that have to field a 3B, he looks decidedly average, except for OOZ.
  19. kramnoj
    120 is a bit of a high threshold. Wolf reached it once this year, in his last start. Gallardo did it 4 times in May and June and some here said that he was being abused. And it may be worth noting that Gallardo's best ERA was 2.36 after he threw a season high of 122 pitches, and rose since then. Bush's high was 119 this year. Narveson did it once this year, with 130 pitches. Parra's high was 116. Davis and Cap didn't get there. The general point is valid, but that number is a high expectation.
  20. kramnoj
    Pitchers only have limited control over winning games. That argument is at best weak. Yes, it's weak. It's also weak to look at a months worth of games and think that it's going to be meaningful. I could have gone into more detail highlighting the games where Suppan didn't allow a run, but that wouldn't have convinced anybody. Given all of the information available to Dale, I think he made a poor choice and did it for the wrong reasons Your position on this was that it was Cameron's OBP that made it a poor choice, and then didn't give Cameron credit for his power that he provides, which made him a better hitter than Weeks. If you think he made a poor choice, you are welcome to your opinion, but you haven't provided sufficient evidence to say that Sveum makes poor tactical decisions.
  21. kramnoj
    I don't see how games 1 and 2 matter all that much since there was an off day after game 2. All that much? Maybe not, but it has to be part of the decision making process. What in Suppan's 2008 season gave us any indication that he would be decent? The team had a winning record in his starts. Suppan was awful in September, but that's a small sample size. He could have been unlucky, or he might have been banged up, I don't know. I don't think starting Suppan was brilliant, but I don't think it's nearly as clear cut as many make it out to be.
  22. kramnoj
    And game 5 should have had zero impact on Sveum's decision. You play to win game 4 and worry about game 5 later That's easy for a fan to say. A manager who has to manage a pitching staff needs to have more strategy than that. Sveum could have got lucky and Suppan could have had a decent start. But there wasn't going to be any luck in how long Gallardo could go, there was going to be a limit regardless. Sveum rolled the dice and hoped that Suppan could keep them in the game. It didn't turn out well, but that wasn't unexpected.
  23. kramnoj
    And all three of those runs were unearned. Yes, but those 4 walks in 4 IP didn't show that Gallardo really had good control yet. Even if he could only go three innings, I would much rather have him pitch those innings when the score is 0-0 than have him come in when we were already down 5-0 thanks to Suppan. If those are the only known factors? Sure. But the bullpen had already thrown 4 IP in Game 1, 4.1 IP in Game 2, and 3.2 IP in Game 3. I would be hesitant to know that I would need to get at least 6 IP out my bullpen in Game 4, and then have CC pitch game 5 when he was shelled in his last start (I don't know if that would have been on 3 days rest or more, which would have also been a factor). And, Gallardo's last start didn't really give any indication that he would be so good as to believe that you would be guaranteed 3 scoreless innings.
  24. kramnoj
    In terms of using that power, I think it is more effective down farther in the order. Sure, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have any use in the leadoff spot. If Cameron hits a double, he's a lot easier to drive in. I think that's more useful than someone who is going to get on base 4% more of the time, but is more likely to be on 1B. At the end of 2008, who would you have rather had as the leadoff hitter, Weeks or Cameron? I think relying on small sample sizes like September OPS is useless, so based on 2008 and years before, I think Cameron is going to add more contribution with the bat than Weeks in the end of 2008. I don't think the 11 points of OBP is worth more than the 69 points of OPS. Weeks in 2008 was a below average hitter. Don't forget starting Suppan over Gallardo in a playoff game. I must be the only person who doesn't have a problem with this. Gallardo threw 75 pitches on October 1 walked 5 batters (one of which was IBB) and gave up 3 runs in 4 IP. I wouldn't think he would be a good choice to start on 3 days rest, when he wasn't fully stretched out from coming back from his injury. An injury where at least two moderators here said some combination of we shouldn't talk about him coming back in the season or blaming the pitching staff if they allowed him to pitch again in the season. Gallardo pitched 3 IP in relief in that elimination game, I don't know that he was going to pitch much more than that if he had started.
  25. kramnoj
    Lawrie could move to 3B if needed. Presumably Lawrie is playing 2B, because that could easily be a position of need in 2012, while the Brewers currently have Casey and Gamel at 3B. I don't think the Brewers are so loaded with advanced hitters that they need to move Lawrie.
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