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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    BR's WAR is crap, well some people think all WAR is crap, but BR's is especially bad for hitting and pitching. I'm going to guess you mean fielding and pitching, but maybe there's something about hitting that I don't know about. As far as the pitching differences, they measure different things. bref uses ERA, so it measures the actual impact on the game, for the most part. Fangraphs uses FIP, which measures components, but not the runs that actually determine the outcome of the game. If you are trying to measure the value the pitcher had in the game, bref is going to be closer. If you want WAR to be something that you can use to predict future performance, fangraphs is going to do a better job.
  2. kramnoj
    Arod's contract, per Cot's 08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
  3. kramnoj
    with seemingly no interest in making defensive upgrades or stressing fundamentals from the players that are currently on the team. As long as that philosophy continues, the Brewers will have below-average pitching--and I have not seen any evidence that management has even acknowledged this problem- I think this is overstating things. Escobar and Gomez were supposed to be good defensive players. They haven't been as good as hoped, but that's some combination of bad luck, sample size and maybe scouting. It's not indicative that the Brewers don't want to be making upgrades. The moves before the 08 season clearly indicate that Melvin saw defensive issues and moved to correct them. The issue is that some of the best hitters the Brewers have are not good defensively. The Brewers could easily improve defensively at those positions, but it doesn't mean the team would be better overall if the offensive drop was more than the defensive gain.
  4. kramnoj
    X seemed to answer the question by saying it was just speculation. Which of course is all it is going to be right now.
  5. kramnoj
    I think the closest thing Attanasio has said, and really the strongest thing he can say publicly while still supporting Melvin is "The organization has been offense-driven. There has been a reticence to gamble on pitching (by trading regular players). We have to come up with an answer." http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/101731208.html
  6. kramnoj
    I knew that Cardinal arrogance had gone way over the edge when they signed Suppan The Suppan who was able to step in and not stink for 54 IP? How dare they?
  7. kramnoj
    I don't see a need to call x surly. The likely scenarios may be that Weeks is extended or traded, but the statement is far too assertive. If the Brewers are lucky enough to be in contention next year with Weeks at 2B, I don't see the Brewers trading him away.
  8. kramnoj
    Post 2002 calcs use UZR, pre use Total Zone and positional adjustments are based by decade and from Sean Smith’s positional adjustments instead of Tangotiger. False. Current B-ref stats use Total Zone, which does not use UZR, although it correlates well to it. I just don't like WAR being used for players in the past there are just to many variables to take into consideration for it to be real conclusive to compare player A from x time period to player B from x time period. I feel confident that we can conclude that Yount in 82 was a far better player compared to his peers than Braun has yet been. What specifically do you think keeps us from reaching that conclusion?
  9. kramnoj
    Of course Yount is going to have a higher WAR. Yount played SS and CF both of those positions lack a lot of good bats. Yount had a good WAR when he hit well. He didn't always have a higher WAR. What defensive metrics are you using to judge that players defense and is it the same as the one you are comparing with the current player? You haven't read the posts where I have addressed this, you don't understand them, or you disagree with them. Which of these apply, and if relevant, why or how? You also have to take into consideration the type of competition that was going on during the two players you are comparing. What specifically do you think needs to be taken into consideration when comparing Yount versus Braun and their eras? In Yount's day, there was very little talent from Asia in the majors, while in Braun's era there seem to be a declining number of African Americans who instead focus on basketball or football.
  10. kramnoj
    I was simply saying that WAR was calculated differently back then vs today, which it was. WAR wasn't calculated at all back then. The WAR that we have now that puts a value for Yount back then and for players today is the same formula.
  11. kramnoj
    Other posters have not addressed what I wrote in 25. The calculation of WAR for offense that is used now is applied to the past. Yount being a shortstop is important to how valuable he was, but his actual defensive performance represents less than a win of the 11.5 Wins he is attributed in 1982. We can compare players from now and the past, but the biggest thing we are doing is saying how Yount compared to his peers versus how Braun compares to his. Yount in 82 provided more Wins above replacement than Pujols, for example, has provided in any season.
  12. kramnoj
    I was just pointing out the hole in bringing up Yount's WAR compared to Braun's. What hole are you pointing out? If there is a change in calculating a version of WAR, it would apply to the past and present.
  13. kramnoj
    I have a memory of LaRussa trying 3 pitchers in a game for 3 IP per game. I believe he tried it towards the end of his stay with the A's, but it may have been more theory than practice. I believe the thinking was that hitters tend to do better as the pitcher tires and as the hitter sees the same pitcher multiple times. If you keep the pitcher fresh and don't allow a hitter to see him for a 3rd time, the pitcher should have some advantages and do better. If it was tried, it didn't last long, mostly because the pitchers used weren't really good anyway.
  14. kramnoj
    But wasn't WAR calculated differently before 2002 Was WAR calculated in 2002? Unless you mean BPro's WARP, which includes a questionable non-PBP defense valuation. Yount's 82 is truly incredible. Sean Smith's WAR, per B-Ref, has him worth 11.5 Wins, and less than a win of that was because of his defense on the field. His offense, especially compared to the shortstops, was just amazing.
  15. kramnoj
    Lee's contract is just awful at this point. Combining this year and last year, Lee has been paid almost as much as Suppan was while with the Brewers, and has provided less value. And he still has two years remaining with $37M owed.
  16. kramnoj
    Heyward now has an OPS+ of 133. Comparable to Griffey as a 20 year old, and better than Aaron, Mays, Mantle, etc.
  17. kramnoj
    If he has enough money to buy the Dodgers, why is our payroll still in the lower half of the league? The two aren't related in any way. Pohlad was a billionaire, wouldn't build a stadium for his team, and kept the Twins payroll low. A team can support a certain amount of payroll, but there aren't lots of people willing to lose millions of their own dollars to support a team. Also, as discussed, Attanasio doesn't have the money to buy the Dodgers. He has enough money and enough business partners to put together a group that can buy the Dodgers.
  18. kramnoj
    My random guess as to what the payroll will be cut is to around the $75-80M mark. Why is having a payroll of $80M an issue? The Brewers will have enough money to add one or two SP, depending on who is available. They won't really need to spend money anywhere else.
  19. kramnoj
    It costs about $70k or so to bring up a player for September.
  20. kramnoj
    Not from anybody who actually knows anything about the situation.
  21. kramnoj
    Gomez has been told he is a bench player for now, and he knows he needs to improve his OBP in order to be a starter with the Brewers again: http://milwaukee.brewers....k_mil&fext=.jsp&c_id=mil
  22. kramnoj
    That may be how you read it, but if you look at the comments you are in the extream minority. Being in the extreme minority of a population of messageboard commenters should be a point of pride. TH didn't do Gamel any favors with the headline, but it seems to be accurate. If you disagree, where does Gamel seem excited in the quotes provided either by TH or AM? The most positive thing he says he that he will be happy to have a job. Gamel is analytical when talking about playing 1B, and even exhibits a fear of failure by talking about letting his teammates down by not picking low throws. Those thoughts describe someone who isn't excited.
  23. kramnoj
    Baldkin, I don't see how your post proves anything different than what I said. If the Yankees retain Pettitte, Jeter and Rivera, they will have about the same money, or possibly less, to spend on Lee than the Brewers will. We also at this point don't know that $213M is the new budget for the Yankees. That may have been a stretch for them this year, so we can't assume that they will be able to spend every dollar they spent this year.
  24. kramnoj
    It's not instructive to look at a handful of things that MLEs get wrong and think that means anything. Andy Marte was a top prospect, slugged over .500 in multiple minor league seasons yet couldn't translate that to the majors. Calvin Pickering slugged over .500 over his career in the minors and was a below average hitter in limited opportunities in the majors. I could go on, but it wouldn't be that useful, just as picking MLE misses isn't useful. ZiPs uses some version of MLE to make its predictions each year, and it is one of the best predictors out there. It will have lots of misses, but it will hit lots of times as well.
  25. kramnoj
    Like they did for Carlos Beltran? No, they were outbid by their cross town rival. They were only outbid in the sense that the Yankees didn't go strong after Beltran. There were rumblings that Beltran would have signed for less with the Yankees than he did with the Mets (better chance of winning). Contrary to what some believe, the Yankees actually have a limit, and couldn't get both Randy Johnson and Beltran that season, so the Yankees chose the Big Unit and let Beltran go. I think the assumption is that Lee is signing with the Yankees, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers actually had more money to spend this offseason than the Yankees do. Just a guess, but I would imagine that the Yankees will sign Lee, but it will be backloaded where a lot of the money comes after 3 years or so when Posada, Rivera, and maybe Jeter may not be playing anymore.
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