kramnoj

Was an interesting game to be at. Was fun to hear the crowd react to the Packer game. Packer game was being played at the concession stands and was on a TV at the Harley Davidson area. Tonight was a BP game, so there were probably a fair number of people who either got tickets free or paid a small upgrade. If you haven't paid full price for a ticket, it's probably a little easier to skip the game to watch the Packers instead.

from http://milwaukee.brewers....ey=notebook_mil&c_id=mil It was manager Ron Roenicke's idea to go cowboy for the flight to St. Louis, and players traveled in groups to Houston outfitters to gear-up. Rather, most of them did. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy had everything he needed already in his closet, and bought a new belt buckle for fun. Craig Counsell opted for a thrift store, figuring his cowboy getup had very little chance of seeing the light of day after Sunday.

One of the things that Roenicke talked about in the post game conference last night was that extra players disrupts the routine of things like batting practice. Now, I've never been involved in a big league club. It seems easy to me to say just start BP earlier to let the extra guys get their cuts in and then the rest of the team can do BP like they normally do. But since I've never been involved in a big league club, I don't know what is preventing the team from doing that. Maybe there's a whole routine to gameday, and things like starting BP 15-30 minutes disrupts that, and the value of bringing up extra guys that aren't going to see much time isn't worth the disruption to the norm.

This is a guy who has never put up an ERA under 3 at any level, How did you decide that this should be a reason not to use Peralta? Marcum never had an ERA under 3 for a full season in the minors. Neither did Wolf,

This means absolutely nothing, but figured this would be as good a thread as any to share it in. I'm playing the latest version of OOTP and in the offseason between 2011 and 2012, both Fielder and Pujols went in looking for $25 Million. They each went months without getting an offer. Pujols actually caved and took a deal to stay with the Cards. Fielder went the whole offseason without getting the deal he wanted. On Opening Day, he finally lowered his demands and I got him for 5/$70M.

That's not the issue. When you point out that people were saying that he should keep his job during the hot streak, and it continued being a hot streak, yes, yes, it is an issue. Yes, but they've been hindered by his poor play before and since. There really isn't enough of a sample size in "since" to support this, and I think a lot of teams would love to be so hindered as the Brewers have been during that time.

There was also a sentiment of "who cares what his past performance and future projections say -- he's hitting right now and therefore deserves to play everyday." Can you provide compelling evidence of who would have provided equal production to Betancourt during his hot streak? The Brewers benefited from his play during that time. He's not hitting anymore. So, now what defense is there to continue playing him everyday with Hairston on the team? Right now? I would rather Hairston split his time between 2B and CF until Weeks comes back.

If only there were some way this could have been foreseen. What is this in response to? Can you point to one person who said that Betancourt was going to maintain his hot streak for the rest of the season? Just as someone could say that 10 days of a hot streak was meaningless, the last 10 days are meaningless. His season to date is remarkably close to his preseason projection. I thoroughly enjoyed Betancourt's run and the run the Brewers had for a good part that went along with it. I hope that he is a positive to the Brewers while we await the return of Weeks and Gomez, and am hopeful Hairston does a good enough job as well to convince management that he should get some starts at SS in September.

For God's sake, they were analogies, not 1:1 comparisons. I know that's a tough concept for some people. Well, you didn't find one analogy that worked either. Given that you couldn't do that, it seemed to be an exercise in futility. The point of listing the players I did was to show age, outside extremes, shouldn't be practically the sole cause for excluding a minor leaguer as a prospect. You didn't support your point. Your analogies were of players when they became major league players. However, the improvement in statuses of prospects like Green, Schafer, Peralta, Thornburg, and yes even Fiers, etc.; make it far from the worst as was originally claimed. How far? Have you made projections for all Brewer farmhands and then for other systems to reach this conclusion?

May I have a definition of the way prospect mavens use the term? I didn't know there was an exact definition. The easiest response for me is, I can't define it, but I know it when I see it. I wonder why you ask the question though. Do you think Fiers is a prospect, in the way that BA and other minor league devotees use the term? If so, why did he last to the 22nd round? Why hasn't he been ranked by BA in their top 100? Even in the most recent Power 50, he's number 19. I don't think that a team's 19th best prospect is going to meet the definition of a major league prospect. My own definition of prospect would be a player who has the tools to have significant impact at the major league level and who has demonstrated some level of performance to go along with the tools in a way that is equal to or superior to his peers. It is certainly possible for a player to have a good, possibly great MLB career with out being a prospect. Josh Hamilton was 26 when getting first called up. Was he not a prospect? This seems to be an odd response if you are quoting me. I didn't use the term called up. I mentioned the age at when he first appeared in AA. Hamilton isn't anywhere close to a valid comparison. He was actually rated the #1 prospect once upon a time, and made it to AA at age 20. Randy Johnson was 25 and had spent 4 years in the minors before getting called up. Was he not a prospect or a borderline one? He was called up in his 24 age season. He doesn't appear to have been ranked in BA's top 100, but he was drafted in the 2nd round. I don't think it would be accurate to say he spent 4 seasons in the minors. Axford got called up at the same age as Fiers is right now and similarly started in the minors at 24. Did he not constitute a prospect in reality? Axford was in AAA by his age 24 season. You aren't finding actual comparable players. A prospect is anyone who, when looking at all the circumstances, projects to benefit a major league team in the future. That definition becomes so broad as to be close to meaningless. A player destined for a role as a backup catcher isn't a prospect in any useful sense of the word. If the collective projected impact of all of them combined is better than average then you have a good farm system. That's an interesting point. Have you done the research to say that this is the current state of the Brewers minor league system?

I'd say its a bit to early to say hes not a prospect. What's your definition of prospect? Fiers could absolutely have a future with the Brewers and I root for that to happen, but he's not a prospect in the way that prospect mavens use the term.

The worst system has nothing to do with the current record of the major league team. DLC is 27. He's not a prospect. Maldonado has an OPS of .643 in the minors in his career, he's not a prospect. Fiers is 26 and didn't get to AA until last year. He could be a part of next years team, but he's not a prospect. The other players could be good major league players or useful role players, but they don't have the prospect status that BA likes. I don't know that BA's rankings are all that important when it comes to the future of this team. I would guess that BA's rankings reflect, rather than inform, a prospect's status.

Or if he really succeeds out of the bullpen next year, maybe the next closer I'm all for planning for the future, but I'm pretty sure the Brewers have control of Axford for 4 more seasons. I think bullpen arm in 2012 and possible starter beyond is the optimistic path. And if starting is out of the question, a cheap young BP arm is nice to have for a few years.

The 9/11 game has more to do with the 10th anniversary of events in NY that day than playoff relevance.

ESPN has Billingsley vs Gallardo Eovaldi vs Greinke Kershaw vs Estrada for the final 3 games. No idea how accurate they usually are.

Yes, Josh Wilson had never played OF in the majors before and had a single appearance in the OF in the minors a few years ago.

They wouldn't schedule weekday matinees if they didn't sell. How many weekday matinees do the Brewers schedule in the middle of a series?

Ray Durham was a freqeunt 3 to 4 WAR player for a long stretch of his career. Betancourt has never been above 2.2. I'm sorry, but that's a terrible comparison. I'm not comparing the players themselves. I'm comparing aberrant seasons. Seasons in which Betancourt was a 0 WAR and 0.2 WAR are hardly glowing endorsements for not being 'below replacement'. Well, I don't know how many people are endorsing Betancourt. I'm endorsing accuracy. It's something that can be sometimes lacking. Seasons of being basically a replacement level player doesn't make the -1.8 an aberration, that was a terrible season in the middle of a bunch of bad seasons. I'm really wondering if this is an argument that you would make about another player. You are saying that a 2 Win difference between his worst season and his second worst season isn't an aberration? What is the level of difference that would require you to accept that definition?

Here are the free agents for next year, but a moderator might feel this belongs in the rumors section Clint Barmes (33) Yuniesky Betancourt (30) - $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout Orlando Cabrera (37) Jamey Carroll (37) Ronny Cedeno (29) - $3MM club option with a $200K buyout Craig Counsell (41) Rafael Furcal (34) - $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout Alex Gonzalez (34) Jerry Hairston Jr. (36) Omar Infante (30) Cesar Izturis (32) Julio Lugo (36) John McDonald (37) Augie Ojeda (37) Nick Punto (34) Edgar Renteria (35) Jose Reyes (29) Jimmy Rollins (33) Ramon Santiago (32) Marco Scutaro (36) - $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout Miguel Tejada (38) Jack Wilson (34) I know some were hoping that we could acquire Barmes, and he looks like a decent target to me.

So you have to go back 5 seasons to find when he was an adequate player fit for every day use. I'm saying that there shouldn't be an assumption that he's below replacement level. He's been that for one year in his career. He was genuinely awful that year, no question. I personally feel that if one year is such an aberration for a player's career, a standard Marcel projection might not be as useful. There were people here who didn't want want Ray Durham as a Brewer because of his awful year the year before. I felt that the bulk of his career and his season to date performance was more relevant than the outlier year. I feel the same way about Betancourt. For his career, he's been around replacement level. Certainly a player you would like to replace given the option.

He was below replacement level 2 of the past 4 years. And he was less than 2 WAR (starting player level) the other 2 years. Where do you see that he was below replacement level for 2 of the past 4 years? Neither WAR on B-ref or fangraphs has that. You might be seeing that he was below replacement level with two teams in 2009. That actually supports my claim. There is such an air of despair created here that it can lead someone to assume the worst about him without closely looking at the facts.

He probably is the worst full time SS in baseball over the past 4 years or so, that is a very different sentence than saying he is the worst SS in baseball though. That full time means a lot especially when you are talking multiple seasons. The issue here is that using the adjective worst is useless. It doesn't provide any value or meaningful distinction. By continuing to use this word, it distorts the understanding of where Betancout fits with his peers. It might lead someone to assume that he is below replacement level, without actually bothering to look it up.

I did a forum search using "betancourt worst". A lot of hits don't match up, but there are certainly quite a few posts that describe Betancourt as one of the worst SS, one of the worst players people have ever seen, worst player in baseball, etc. As an example, here is one post that says "Betancourt very well may be the worst full time player in major league baseball." http://forum.brewerfan.net/search.php?keywords=685058/How-many-of-you-are-willing-to-give-Betancourt-a-shot#reply-685058

Peralta & Gamel would have to be added to the 25-man by Aug. 31; What are the current rules with the DL and playoff spots? I looked, and from what I could see, Peralta could be added to the playoff roster in place of one of the players currently on the DL (K-rod was awesome in the playoffs in his first year, and he didn't get into a game until September of that year). The rules that I read said that the switch has to match up pitcher for pitcher and position player for position player, so if that rule is current, we wouldn't have the same loophole for position players.

nobody said he was absolutely the worst SS in baseball You don't think anybody ever said that? How confident are you in that? I don't feel like actually looking this up but I'm betting he is close to the worst, 15 points separate him from Alcides. As a comparison, Elvis is 15 points ahead of Yuni at 95.