kramnoj

I'm not familiar with Win Percentage Added, but it sounds like a generic formula that doesn't really add anything. I don't doubt that Estrada didn't add much value to the Brewers last year, except that he was the best option they had within the system. I don't buy that the Brewers would have been better off without him last year, and the Brewers clearly agree, otherwise he wouldn't have played 120 games.

When Branyan is on, his k rate is acceptable compared to the slugging he brings. Slugging equals runs. We wouldn't expect Branyan to be worse than Hall is versus righties right now, and he could be a significant improvement.

He had a huge checkbook in Texas and didn't know what starting pitching was. You should look at the 1996 team. That is a very solid pitching staff, and it did a good job in the postseason against the Yankees too. 3 quality starts in 4 games is far from a disaster.

http://www.jsonline.com/index/index.aspx?id=33 is a link to the breakdown of the Braun contract (I haven't seen it posted here yet). Here is the year-by-year breakdown of the eight-year, $45 million contract that Ryan Braun agreed to with the Brewers on Thursday: 2008: $455,000 plus $2.3 million signing bonus 2009: $745,000 2010: $1 million 2011: $4 million 2012: $6 million 2013: $8.5 million 2014: $10 million 2015: $12 million If Braun becomes eligible for salary arbitration after 2009 as a "Super 2" player, these salaries change: 2010: $3.5 million 2011: $5.5 million 2012: $7.5 million 2013: $9 million

Players need to be a little nervous, and maybe look over their shoulder now and then. They need to know if they screw up or simply don't perform, their spot in the lineup is not guaranteed. Maybe I'm reading this stronger than you intend, but I don't think that fear is really an effective long term motivation. When it comes to baseball, it's not usually screwing up or not performing that warrants a benching. It's lack of effort, or an extended poor approach. I don't usually see players that are a little nervous playing well. Braun looked nervous when he was flailing at balls a week or two ago. When he is rocketing balls out of the park, he looks comfortable. That's one example, but I think it's representative of most players.

I think it's important to point out that Fielder is making $670k, not half a mil. $170k is still a lot of money, to both parties. I'm not bothered by what Prince has done so far. He hasn't really said anything remarkable as far as I'm concerned, and I don't see his attitude affecting his play or that of the team. I would be in favor of him signing an extension that buys out a year or two, but if he wants to go year to year and we need to trade him a year from FA, I'm okay with that too.

One more thing. A Brewer fan on a cubs board said that A. The payroll will eventually be pushed to 100Mil and B. that Mark A has stated he would like to bring in another #1 for the push. Are either of these two statements remotely accurate? There is a thread about Attanasio saying there is money to go get a pitcher if there is one on the market and it makes sense. I don't know if Mark actually said a #1, but I think that terminology is overused anyway. If the Brewers can improve their rotation and it makese sense, they will do it. As far as the $100 million payroll, I'm sure it's true that the Brewers will eventually have that. I just don't know where the endpoint of eventually is. I would be surprised if that was this season, but it is possible that the payroll could get there within a few years.

His agent and father were on 540 this afternoon. Obviously, guaranteed money is great, but they really indicated that Braun enjoys Milwaukee. I think that's awesome. I heard one caller today saying that he has young children and that he is thrilled that he can tell his children that they will grow up watching Braun. Great deal for Braun, great deal for the Brewers. Major kudos to Attanasio for doing this, and Melvin and the front office for getting this done.

Greg Maddux? Wonder how much a rental would be, and I wonder when the Padres would be willing to call it a season.

The Brewers simply cannot DFA Gagne and then use that money somewhere else via trade. Their pockets aren't that deep. I've never said that the Brewers can use that money elsewhere. No other team can DFA someone and then use that same money elsewhere. The Brewers took a calculated, very expensive, risk. Right now, it's not working out. They have a plan to try to fix Gagne, and I hope for everybody that they do. But whatever decision is made with Gagne should revolve only around his talent and his future value to the team. His paycheck should not enter into the equation, because his paycheck won't have any effect on the field.

I'd like to know the last time a $10 million dollar player got DFA'd and how frequent it is. "Sunk cost" doesn't exist there Frank Thomas was cut this year, he will make $8 million. It doesn't happen often, but it wouldn't be unprecedented. I said "could". You actually said should. I think there is reason to dismiss it -- it's May. Timing is irrelevant. If the team determines that Gagne has no value to the team, they shouldn't wait, they should cut bait. The money at this point is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is what value he has to the Brewers. you can take this high level investor view at it or in my mind take the Milwaukee view. This is from your previous post, but I don't understand why you feel there should be a difference. You keep bringing up New York and Boston, and saying that the Brewers can't cut somebody with a huge contract. It is true that a long term mistake would cripple the Brewers far more than it would affect bigger market teams, but this is a one year deal. If the Brewers focus on his salary instead of whatever value he has, that would have a much bigger effect on this team than the money that is already committed.

This isn't the Yankees, the Red Sox, or any other team with deep pockets. The decision to sign Gagne could cost jobs. Why do you think this, and why do you think Attansio thinks this? It only cost the team money, and it only committed them for one year. You think Mevlin should be fired for that? Do you have any evidence that Attansio believes that? I honestly don't think "sunk cost" applies to anything in May. If you want to use that type of financial terminology, the Brewers would've easily made the playoffs and done well because in May last year they were 24 - 10. This doesn't make any sense at all. There's zero reason to dismiss the concept of a sunk cost, because it is something the Brewers have to consider. A sunk cost in baseball can occur any time from spring training to the end of the season. The fact that it is May has no relevance. I think I should also point out that I haven't said that Gagne is a sunk cost. It's just something the Brewers have to consider. The money is guaranteed and to DFA $10 million in May means Melvin should be gone today. You believe that a move made that impacted the team for only one year, that didn't cost any talent, that didn't bankrupt the team should be used to dismiss Melvin? Why do you think this? You think Mark would allow Mevlin to sign Gagne without accepting the possibility that Gagne wouldn't be worth the money? And for your "sunk cost" I'll throw out the "opportunity cost" factor. The Brewers look like they could've used that $10 million a lot better somewhere else I don't think anybody disagrees with this. But that doesn't really matter today. Finding what value Gagne has to the team, and ignoring how much he is being paid, will help this team for the rest of the year.

Having him in mop up roles on a team that underperforms isn't going to look good -- if that is what happens At this point, that doesn't matter. Only winning matters. Gagne isn't going to be part of this team after this season, so the only objective is determining what role he can perform that will be most beneficial to the Brewers, whether that role is closer, 7th inning guy, mop up duty, or being DFA'ed. The Brewers have to try and figure out a way to get something back from Gagne. Why? This is the tough thing about recognizing a sunk cost. There is an emotional attachment to the money spent. The Brewers don't have to try to get anything from Gagne if he doesn't have anything to give. If Gagne was a bad investment, the Brewers don't gain anything by giving him innings to try to save face. It's May and we're talking about "sunk costs"? That's not even an investment -- that's poor financial management. There's no reason to put the quotes around sunk costs. It's a real thing that people have to deal with. Poor financial management is throwing resources at a bad investment to try to make it look good. Throwing good money after bad. If you have a sunk cost, it helps you to realize it early, so that you can mitigate the damage that it will cost you. I just don't think he'd be fine paying $10 million without receiving any results. I believe Mark A values $10 million by saying that. Of course he wouldn't be fine with paying $10 million without receiving any results, unless there were more important factors. The overriding factor is the $80 million spent on this seasons team. Mark wants this team to succeed, and if the best chance for that to occur is to have Gagne DFAd, I doubt Gagne's salary would delay him one second in approving that.

My point is that moving Gagne out of the closer role has more to it than just some of the results he's had. It makes Melvin look bad and Yost doesn't want to make his boss look bad. There's more dynamics than Gagne's results so far. This is a guess on my part, but I imagine Attanasio cares more about winning games than whether one employee hire works out. If Yost wants to make his boss look good, he should try to win as many games as possible this season, and not focus on the results of one player. This move would be the biggest move in terms of dollars that don't work out (at least based on a per year basis) and I have to imagine that the investor is aware of that. An investor that recognizes a sunk cost realizes that a risk was taken and it failed, and then he moves on, putting the bad investment out of his mind, because he can't do anything about it anymore. Gagne is going to get his salary no matter if he pitches another inning, or what inning he pitches in. The team should try to objectively determine what value Gagne has for this team going forward, and ignore that 12 % of the payroll is involved in the decision.

But every other sampling as a Brewer has been awful for Bush. What is your definition of awful? Bush's ERA+ in 2007 was about average for a #5 starter in the majors last year. Since Bush was able to start 31 games, give the Brewers 186 innings, and have a winning record, he was actually better than a #5 starter. I don't see how that is awful in any rational sense, especially at a cost of $450k.

There was a story on the Sporting News site that talked about the June 1st deadline for calling up Weaver, and how the Brewers are having their review tomorrow. It mentioned that one of the Brewer's scouts will be in Nashville today to observe Weaver. I'm guessing Weaver will get the first call, but DiFelice has to get a look at some point.

He's making $10 million this year. Moving Gagne in May to a mop up role isn't going to look good in the eyes of Melvin's boss. The decision to sign Gagne I'm sure will be a high on Melvin's review this year. I would guess that Attanasio cares more about the $80 million he's spending on the Brewers than the $10 million he's paying Gagne. The owner is an investor, he knows that not all moves work out, and that it is important to recognize a sunk cost. The thing that is interesting to me is that Gagne said he doesn't deserve to pitch in the 9th. I wonder if he actually thinks he would pitch better in the 7th ot 8th.

I fault him for signing Suppan for so much money that it appears that we won't be able to compete for Sheets in the free-agent market. Why do you think this? We could almost sign Sheets by using money that is being spent this season on relievers: Gagne, Turnbow, Mota. Then there's other players that could be gone after this season, depending on how young Brewers improve: Cameron, Counsell, Kendall. There's no reason that the Brewers won't have enough money to spend on Sheets, it will just be a question of whether the price and the years make sense.

I don't care for the Suppan signing because he simply hasn't produced. What were you expecting from Suppan, and how did you base your expectations?

I wouldn't even call signing Gagne a huge mistake. It was a calculated one-year gamble. The team had a huge hole to fill, and he took an expensive flier on a move that could have a nice reward. I guess we could imagine what it would have taken to get Valverde. What would it have cost the Brewers to get him?

I don't think there is evidence right now that his psyche is stronger than Turnbow. That is one of the problems. He doesn't have confidence in his ability to do the job. Having people tell you that you stink doesn't help you stop believing that you stink. (edit: nested quote --1992)

Burkett pitched a complete game and gave up two runs in that game. I don't think he's your best evidence that Mevlin doesn't know how to build a pitching staff. I believe Melvin is signed through next year. Certainly there will be some kind of review after this season, but I believe Melvin is a better GM than most.

People booing him before he throws a pitch can't help his confidence.

Brewer Fever, I understand what you are saying, but my point isn't to ignore the present. The point is that a team has to manage the present and the future. Also, I should point out that I realize that Melvin doesn't run the draft, but I do wonder if Attanasio will exert some influence to indicate that he would prefer talent that is near major-league ready versus high ceiling 18 year olds that could could take 4-5 years to develop.

The way they're playing right now is reason to postpone any talk of 2010. It's a complete crapshoot. One of the reasons I did this is because I wanted to put myself in Melvin's chair and try to imagine the choices he has to make. He has to be thinking of these things, because he has to decide how this team and the current farm system will affect the June draft. Does he take the best available player, even if that is a corner spot, or will he focus on college pitchers because he wants to get guys that he can fast-track to the majors? This town has shown a great interest in supporting a team that is near contention. Melvin has to balance building towards the future with keeping the current team stocked with enough talent to keep the fans coming into Miller Park.