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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    We're obviously seeing sample size to some extent here. He's not going to continue hitting this way. But I do think it would be interesting, and pretty darn cool, if Kapler were able to provide some nice value off the bench this year. There have been players who have just played over their head for varying lengths of time. Shane Spencer put together an insane 73 PA for the Yankees in 1998. Let's hope that Kapler can put together an insane 200 or so PA for the Crew this year.
  2. kramnoj
    If all Ben wanted was $15 mil/year, I would personally be surprised if the Brewers didn't offer it (up to a certain point anyway, I don't see the Brewers offering him 6 years).
  3. kramnoj
    If Braun and Fielder maintain similar years to last year over the course of their career, than describing last year as a career year won't really be that mindless, will it? You said that these players should make themself better. I have a hard time imagining these players being significantly better than they were last year.
  4. kramnoj
    "Are you referring to his .340 OBP and .354 SLG with Boston in 2006? Why is he obviously better than that?" One reason it is obvious is that he had the talent at to do so previously in his career. Kapler wasn't just bad his last few years, he was awful, below replacement level. I have a hard time believing that someone as terrible as he was for the last few years could be so successful, even in a small sample, without some kind of change. I would be curious to know what happened with Kapler. Maybe he was one of those muscle heads who tried to get as big as he could, and forgot that he needed agility as a baseball player. Maybe he discovered some relaxation technique that enables him to focus better. Or maybe it's just small sample size. I, personally, think it's fun to imagine what could be, rather than end all discussions with "sample size". That doesn't result in interesting discussion.
  5. kramnoj
    I'm curious Naivin, what do you envision a career year from Braun being? He had insane success against lefties last year. Do you think that is a special skill he has? As far as Prince is concerned, if he doesn't lose this weight, it will be harder for him to stay in the lineup enough to improve on 50 HRs.
  6. kramnoj
    Naivin, I don't understand your post. You think Braun and Fielder can be better than they were last year? I think there's a significant chance that we saw each of their career years last year.
  7. kramnoj
    I would be surprised if Prince's motivation here was money. I think it's much easier to believe that Prince feels comforatble in the role that he had last year, and is unsure of his role now. He might feel pressure to have a different approach, otherwise why would the manager change where he hit in the lineup?
  8. kramnoj
    They do. There are people on this board who are still on the fence about Melvin. Previous front offices were ripped for their failures. Why do you think this never happens?
  9. kramnoj
    I wonder if it's just a mental approach for Kapler. He obviously had the talent to be a better player than he was at the end of his previous stint. For whatever reason, he just stunk. Taking the season off may have really given him a focus that he needed to perform better. It's crazy, he has as many HRs this season has the previous 250 PA spread out over his 2 most recent years.
  10. kramnoj
    It's interesting that Yost used "placebo". Even if it shouldn't matter, the fact that this is in the heads of Braun and Fielder indicates that the placebo may just work. I never really understood Yost's reasoning for making the move, but I wasn't too vocal about it. The Brewers are in a weird place. They are winning, so changing strategies wouldn't normally be an issue. But some of the Brewers are clearly struggling at the plate, and I would rather they address that before too many games are lost.
  11. kramnoj
    He didn't say a #1 caliber arm. He said "another". Why would he refer to another #1 caliber arm for $5 million when talking about Sheets, who clearly isn't available for $5 mil a year?
  12. kramnoj
    Then what does "I know people like to pretend that the Brewers are suddenly going to find another arm thats #1 caliber for $5 m a year, but it isn't going to happen. You have Bush at $5 m or next years Suppan at $11 m for four years. " mean?
  13. kramnoj
    Actually, using context adjusted stats, you can compare anybody to anybody. That's the awesome thing about baseball-reference.com. I could have used Adam Dunn as a guy who is successful despite a .248 career batting average. Weeks has shown flashes of being a valuable player. It is far too early to call him a bust. It's a claim you can't substantiate.
  14. kramnoj
    If Bush has a #1 arm, why hasn't he been able to put together a full season showing that? I also don't understand your Suppan comment. He's here for two years after this one. If you're saying that the Brewers need to go get a FA to replace Bush, I don't see why that's true. They should be able to replace Bush's production with someone in their system or a leftovers like Kyle Lohse.
  15. kramnoj
    I'm not saying he's going to be Schmidt. I'm saying that a player can provide value without having a good batting average. For Weeks, his value so far has shown to be getting on base, being productive on the bases, and showing the potential for more power than the usual person at his position/
  16. kramnoj
    "Braun also hit .324 to Weeks' .235. He hit 34 bombs and knocked in 97 runs. And this was in 40 more at-bats. In his rookie year. C'mon man, some of your arguments are ridiculous". That's true, but .OBP is more predictive than BA. There aren't a lot of .324 career hitters. Braun also gave up a lot of value on defense. The simple truth is that Braun was more likely to cause an out than Weeks last year, and you are calling Weeks a bust. You can't support it.
  17. kramnoj
    I think you should actually look at Schmidt's career. His batting averages through age 26 were .196, .282, .249 and .262. It also doesn't make sense to compare his whole career to Rickie. The whole point is that it's too early to call him a bust, because he's so early in his career.
  18. kramnoj
    Last year, Ryan Braun had 5 sac flies. Last year, Weeks had 3 sac hits and 2 sac flies. Braun last year had 13 GDP, and weeks had 3. Last year, Braun had an OBP of .370 and Weeks had an OBP of .374. Braun last year was more likely to make an out than Weeks was. It's not really true that the best hitters make outs 7 out of 10 times. That's for people who don't understand OBP. The best hitters will have an OBP of .400 or higher and will make outs 6 out of 10 times, or less.
  19. kramnoj
    I do wonder about the "usually clear" part. I assume this was true in a previous age of gentelmen's agreements, and I wonder if that is still the case. If the Cubs are behind the Brewers in the standings and they try to send Bush down, do we expect that the Cubs wouldn't claim him, just to block the move?
  20. kramnoj
    From Cot's: "Optional waivers. Optional major league waivers are required when optioning a player who has options remaining but who is more than three calendar years removed from his first appearance on a Major League roster. Because optional waivers are revocable, players usually clear in this scenario."
  21. kramnoj
    I believe Bush would go through revocable waivers, so the Brewers wouldn't lose him if they didn't want to. They could pull him back if he was claimed and go with whatever their plan B would be. There is an interesting balance between now and the future. If Bush's best role for this team is long relief, that's fine. But if that is his best role for this team in the future, there is no reason to bring him back next year, he would be too expensive for the role.
  22. kramnoj
    I agree that having a guy warming up pro-actively sounds like a good idea, but I wonder how many things we don't know. As silly as it may sound, confidence is important, and I don't think having a replacement pitcher ready for a pitcher who has done well is going to help the starter get through the last part of their outing. If you have so little confidence in the pitcher's ability to go deep, why even let them have the opportunity to give up a run? I've watched Brewer's games where I was confident that the struggling starter was going to blow the game, only to have Yost's confidence in the pitcher pay off.
  23. kramnoj
    "He's still making bad outs" What are good outs, and how should he make them? "But OBP is not a BA, and OBP is not something makes a player great." Mike Schmidt hit .267 for his career, what do you think of him? There have been good players who haven't contributed anything in their bigs before the age of 25. Rickie is still providing value to this team. He will continue to do so for at least another year or two. If that time comes, and he hasn't improved his game, then the Brewers might have to make a tough decision. Until then, we should forget where he went in the draft and use it against him. The decision has been made, there's no benefit to use that as a mark against him when deciding his future value.
  24. kramnoj
    How does the fact that people who buy a ticket make them not clueless? I imagine Geoff is a big boy, and therefore booing isn't going to negatively impact him. It might give him a little extra motivation to shut those boors up by doing well against his former team. How does that help the Brewers?
  25. kramnoj
    "* After reading about your port-a-potty situation in the parking lots, I don't think I ever want to read about how boorish you think Cubs fans are." You're right. Going in a trough with 20 other guys is much better than going in a bucket in a makeshift outhouse.
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