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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    The Braves did this with Wickman last year, right? I don't know all the details, but I think they wanted to remove him from the closer role, he resisted, so they just cut him in August.
  2. kramnoj
    I don't understand your point. Which veterans are we kissing goodbye? If you're talking about Francisco Cordero, I'm okay with that. If you're talking about Ben Sheets, I think it'll be tough to keep him regardless of whether these contracts exist. I don't think these contracts will keep us from signing stopgaps like Kendall or good backups like Counsell.
  3. kramnoj
    But how do you know that? Did you know 3 years ago that someone like Howard would get $10 million in his first arbitration year? I think one thing that gets lost a little bit here is the non-monetary value of avoiding arbitration. Arbitration is not fun. The act of demonstrating a player's weaknesses to suppress their value isn't good for team relations. Teams are (and should be) willing to risk spending a few extra million over a contract to avoid that process.
  4. kramnoj
    endaround, small injuries like that are part of the planning for any long term contract. They won't factor into preventing a team from offering a deal. Again, baseball teams need to take smart risks to get rewards. A small market team playing it safe looks like the Brewers for most of the last two decades or the Pirates for the same time frame. I would much rather the Brewers swing for home runs and strike out every now and then then aim for singles and not score enough runs. Edit: "Also these al;l assume salary growht. Lasrt time theri was a recession salaries staked out. This recession would be deeper than in 2001." Not all recessions will produce the same results. Teams weren't getting MLBAM money earlier this decade either. And we're not just assuming salary growth, we've already witnessed it with the arbitration award for Howard.
  5. kramnoj
    "I don't want to gamble $15-20 mil. over the next three years when he's under contract for less than $2 mil. in that timeframe. That's just bad investing imo." If you are saying what I think you are saying, this is the wrong way to look at this deal. If Braun would a 6 year deal for $30 million, he wouldn't be getting $15 million over the first three years. It would be structured to pay out like arbitration contracts. You are also severely overrating the injury factor. Healthy young position players rarely suffer the injuries you are trying to avoid.
  6. kramnoj
    TooLiveBrew, the chances of artbitration costs exploding are much higher than a player with Braun's skills degrading or suffering a career ending injury. The purpose of these deals isn't necessarily to lock in a future year, as it is to get cost certainty in future years. I would be surprised if the Brewers get in the top half of revenue in the near future. For them to seriously compete, they need to take risks, and they need to try to get maximum value when they can. Edit: I would not offer one of these contracts to Hardy. We already have his replacement in the sytstem. Hardy is a good player, but he hasn't consistently looked like a star. These contracts really only work for star players. And one of the things a small market team has to do is not be sentimental when it comes to player choices. Cut the bait on Hardy too early rather than locking him in too long.
  7. kramnoj
    I would like to think that they realized he is bad at stealing bases so he has less attempts. Outs are outs. The best way to win games is minimize outs. Hall attempting stealing leads to an increased in outs and therefore less scoring. The slugging is very relevant, even in the 5th spot. If we had singles hitter after Hall it might make sense to steal, but we don't. The likely hood of a multibase hit is pretty good so he is better off waiting at 1st than making an out on the bases. I think we can. Are you going to tell me that we also don't know what kind of base stealer Fielder is since he has so few attempts? When did they realize he was a bad base stealer? After he had stolen at a 75% rate? And if they thought he was a bad base stealer, why did he have any attempts at all? It's not true that outs are outs. The value of an out varies depending on the run environment. You indicated this yourself when you talked about the slugging on the team. I am making the point that the two best sluggers on this team are in front of Hall, so we can't count the value of their slugging when considering when Hall should run. Now, if Hart continues to show the power that he had last year, you are correct, the need for Hall to run will decrease. As far as Fielder is concerned, the evidence so far is that when he has attempted to steal a base, he has chosen wisely. As for what kind of runner he is now, I would judge that more on whatever speed he has shown now more than on his success two years ago.
  8. kramnoj
    I seem to remember hearing somebody in the offseason say that the Brewers would try to be more aggressive this year. Part of moving Braun behind Prince was to get the use of Braun's speed. There will certainly be times when it will cost us runs and it may cost us some games. But I think the point is that agressive players are more sharp, and its better to be sharp than rely on the home run to win games.
  9. kramnoj
    He has been at 50% or lower stealing bases in all but 2 years of his career. One year he was 66%, which I believe is about break even for an average team, and once 75%. With the slugging on our team I am not sure if 75% is high enough to break even. Well, the actual number of events is important. He had almost as many attempts 3 years ago when he was good as the last two years combined. As to the breakeven point and slugging, if Hall continues to hit 5th, I don't know how relevant that is. If it's a tight game and they think they can get Hall to 2nd so that a single from Hart or Hardy can score him, sounds good to me. I don't think we know at this point whether or not we can say with certainty what kind of base-stealer Hall is right now. We obviously don't have enough to think that he should always have the green light, but there isn't enough to suggest he is horrible either.
  10. kramnoj
    He's a career 57% base stealer. He had one year where he was over 70% so that looks to be an aberration. I agree with logan, I don't want Hall stealing very much, if at all. You present the argument well. I was genuinely asking why he would only the last two years of data. That only represents 27 data points. With a sample that small, we don't know how much is noise and how much is relevant.
  11. kramnoj
    Why would you use the last two years, when he was a good base stealer 3 years ago?
  12. kramnoj
    I want the guy who can turn whatever tools he has into keeping the opponents from scoring more often, especially if he has a history of doing so.
  13. kramnoj
    So part of your reasoning is based on looking at carrer ERA, without looking at full context? Part of this discrepancy is based on Suppan's early career, from ages 20-23, when he was in the major leagues as a below average pitcher. At the same age, Bush wasn't in the major leagues. It doesn't make a lot of sense to hold this against Suppan when evaluating their current value. Bush's best season was his first season, at partial season of less than 100 innings thrown 4 years ago. His performance certainly looked impressive, but the 3 seasons he has pitched since then haven't really come close when looking at ERA+ (131 then, 103 is the highest since). I'm far from a pitching expert, but I do wonder why Bush hasn't been able to come close to the same results over the last three years that he had in his first. I don't know if he surprised big league hitters with some funky movement and there is now a book on hitting him, I don't know if he just got lucky in his first year, and his recent performance is his true talent. It's true that Suppan has never dominated over a full season as Bush did in his first. Of course, Bush has never done so over a full season either.
  14. kramnoj
    Suppan was a good pitcher before he was with the Cardinals. Now maybe that's not relevant because projection systems typically don't go back that far. But Bush from age 24-27 was an inferior pitcher to Suppan at the same age, and I dont currently see a reason to think that Bush is going to get better than he has been.
  15. kramnoj
    Peripherals are a good indicator, but they are just that, an indicator. Wang with the Yankees has less than inspiring peripherals, yet has performed as a top pitcher. This really isn't any different than what endaround was saying. If Bush projects to be better than Suppan, it is because of these peripherals. The end result matters. I would love it if Suppan performed as a 3 this year and Bush peformed better. I just don't think it's likely.
  16. kramnoj
    I think of a young pitcher's arm like driving on ice. You don't know that you've gone across the danger zone until it's too late. It's best to be cautious and not get maximum value than attempt to get the most and have a crash.
  17. kramnoj
    Your evidence for Bush being better than Suppan is projections? Projections that are usually wrong about 1/3 of the time? Projections have their uses, but that doesn't mean that we should just blindly follow them and turn off our brain.
  18. kramnoj
    Mike and Mike is on 540, it's on from 5-9 AM. They also have Mike Tirico (and friends) from noon - 2 (although someone posted here recently that 540 is looking to replace that with local programming as well).
  19. kramnoj
    This isn't 100% accurate. Goldman Sachs owned about 1/3 of the network when it launched. It still owns a portion of the network, although it is currently up for sale.
  20. kramnoj
    540 isn't all National Radio Shows. They have local programming from 9 AM - 12 AM and from 2 PM - 6PM (other times too, I'm sure, but that's when I listen).Of course, 1250 airs Rome, so it's not like they are all local radio either.
  21. kramnoj
    You're going to rank Suppan based on one season? If you know where to find VORP, you should know better than that. I would like to see you support the assertion that Bush is better than Suppan.
  22. kramnoj
    Suppan isn't a 4/5. He's a 2/3. You vastly overrate how many good pitchers there are in the major leagues. Seriously, if you are saying that Suppan is a 4, then you are saying that there are at least 90 pitchers starting in the big leagues better than him. All of our pitchers don't have to be above average. To succeed in the playoffs you want 3 really good starters and a couple guys that will keep you in the game. I don't know if this rotation will get us anywhere in the playoffs, but it could be good enough to get us there.
  23. kramnoj
    I can pick up 540 in Sheboygan (furthest north I go for business) and I've heard that it goes down to Chicago.
  24. kramnoj
    Even if you were able to figure out how much YES takes in, you can't just take that and put that as rights fees to the Yankees. That's like looking at a team's revenue and subtracting player payroll and thinking you know what their profit is. It takes money to run YES, just as it takes money to run a team. Also, I'm not sure that the Yankees own 100% of YES.
  25. kramnoj
    I haven't listened to 1250 a lot, but is it true that they give away a $25 gift card, or something similar, to the most valuable caller of each post game show? How is the winner determined? Random drawing? Best take, ala Rome? I could be off base, but I imagine that a station that carries Rome and rewards people for calling in is going to result in people trying to get that reward by being rack-worthy. And if that's the case, some callers are going to say extreme things to get noticed, rather than trying to provide anything insightful.
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