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bill hAll Star

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Everything posted by bill hAll Star

  1. bill hAll Star
    It's still early but Dubon may have the career that [if Pomeranz doesn't stay and Black is nothing special] will draw fans' ire even if it shouldn't. I foresee a Freddy Galvis with the juiced ball future for Dubon. A high batting average, steals, and homers with the juiced ball and the casual fan being impressed with his lack of strikeouts. Of course, he'll be the type that could and should be DFAed at any moment since he is not an elite defensive player and carries a bad OBP along with not a great SLG, but that won't stop the casual fan from complaining that we really botched it because, "he's hitting .270 with 19 homers and 22 steals. What were we thinking?" Especially given the understandable dislike of having Arcia in there every day.
  2. bill hAll Star
    We have 30 days with guys probably getting sent up-and-down a lot + bullpen ball before we play extreme bullpen ball in September.
  3. bill hAll Star
    Fixed
  4. bill hAll Star
    Maybe a 1-1.5 WAR utility guy that gets around 300-400 plate appearances per year? So a slightly better Hernan Perez. They could probably just bring back Hernan Perez at some point for cheaper short-term, then.
  5. bill hAll Star
    FWIW, he had a lot of buzz coming into this season. The stats back it up, Steamer for example has a rest-of-season projection of 3.01 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 13.3 K/9. Don't just look at his ERA in 25 career innings. He's been walking everybody and giving up homers on top of that in AAA which has led to a 5+ ERA. Forgive me if I find it unlikely that he posts a 3 ERA in the majors. What do you project Dubon to do in the majors?
  6. bill hAll Star
    Dubon is probably overrated but yuck.
  7. bill hAll Star
    I think you nailed it. We already have a younger, cheaper version of Ozuna in Santana, and they spent the whole offseason trying to dump him. I somewhat get the point, but Santana is at another level from Ozuna. The question is whether or not one believes Ozuna's season from last year being a new version of him. I'm using FanGraphs' defensive numbers just as a hand-wavy rating, of course they are not perfect: Santana has always been really bad. Yelich has basically been around average his whole career except for one bad year on FanGraphs. Ozuna was a really good defender his first 2 years and now is just OK (a 0 Def rating on Fangraphs, give or take). Career batting average Santana: .262 (trending up) Yelich: .291 Ozuna: .277 (trending up) BB%/K% Santana: (11.5%/31.5%) Yelich: (10.6%/20.6%) Ozuna: (7%/22.1%) There are some aspects of Ozuna that are definitely trending toward Santana, but he's probably a bit closer to Yelich than to Santana. All of that said, I'd take Yelich even with cost/control taken out of the scenario.
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