Jopal78

No doubt, but the concept of winning and losing trades based on surplus value is all guess work. The Addison Russell, McKinney and Straily for Samardzija, and Hammel trade is a good example. It looked great for Oakland in 2014, Samardzija (16 starts 111+ innings, 0.937 WHIP) was a bear for the A’s. Hammel not so much but was a serviceable back of the rotation arm. By 2016 the trade looked great for the Cubs. Russell was an All Star and Hammel resigned as a FA. In 2026, when all the players are long gone, it was probably fair for both sides.

Yes, Russell had a big season when the Cubs won the World Series (they all did), but absolutely incorrect (career average .240, career OBP .312) on the perennial All-Star (Seager, Turner, B. Crawford, etc). The suspension absolutely hurt his career and a glove for a shortstop with a diminishing bat isn’t all that valuable the commodity to begin with. But to your larger point, I don’t know how anyone can look at these type of trades besides through hindsight. There is no player in the minor leagues who is better today, than Skubal, Mason Miller, etc. so it is all guess work as to how much any minor leaguer will contribute vis a vis a major leaguer for 2 months.

That’s also a good counter example too. Addison Russell was a glove first shortstop who played parts of 5 seasons then was non-tendered (His non-tender occurring over a year after his domestic violence suspension). The other two players sent to Chicago from Oakland were Billy McKinney (Oakland’s #2 prospect) and Dan Straily a 24 year old starter who already had a 10 win season and a career 1.26 WHIP and 2:1 K:BB ratio. McKinney never appeared in the majors for the Cubs and played for 8 different teams across 8 years. Straily pitched 7 games for the Cubs and suited up for 4 different team in 5 seasons post trade. There is risk for a team like the Brewers to trade prospects when they will never be big players in free agency. But obviously the above trade included Oakland’s #1, #2 prospects and a major league starting pitcher, and while Oakland may not have gained much with the acquisitions, the loss of the 3 players they traded didn’t amount to much either. You’re misleading on Lester’s impact to try to make a point though. He pitched like an ace for Oakland down the stretch going 6-4 in 11 starts (76 2/3 innings!!) with a 1.07 whip. To be clear in the 2014 AL Wild Card game, Lester did give up 6 runs, but pitched 7 1/3 innings and left the game with Oakland ahead. They ended up losing 9-8 in 12 innings. What more could a team ask of a rental ace than to pitch 7 innings per start in the regular season, then pitch into the 8th inning of an elimination game and leave with the team in the lead?

That’s actually an interesting idea. With potentially three years left in his contract Ashby is a controllable reliever which is always in demand Further his guarantee for next year is $8.7M, I doubt the Brewers intend to carry that kind of salary in 2027 for a non-elite reliever anyway.

Really? Being 22 or 23 in Triple A isn’t the point. The best prospects barely play there anymore. Chourio, Lara and Pratt all reached AAA before turning 22 and spent minimal time there. Focusing on age misses the broader trend. More importantly, I never said Williams has “minimal trade value”. But rebuilding clubs want certainty not question marks. The “young for Triple A” argument is beside the point— elite prospects barely stay there anymore, and Williams has 500+ AAA plate appearances. That’s enough of a sample to take the lingering power concerns seriously. That’s not “height is destiny” it’s acknowledging the risk that is still present in a substantial sample. And despite my apparently trademark “collegial self-effacing” style, you’re overstating how much “young for Triple A” moves the needle in a trade valuation discussion. Is he trade-able? Sure. Is he the type of minor leaguer who headlines a deal for a marquee veteran? The evidence to date does not seem to support it.

No, he’s a two time Cy Young award winner who averages more than 6 innings per start, with impeccable control giving up less than a baserunner per inning over his last 550 innings. Henderson is terrific, but he’s got 70 major league innings in his career and has never thrown 110 innings since turning pro in 2021. I agree with you it does not make sense to trade from the major league rotation to get rental starting pitchers, i just disagreed with the magnitude Skubal brings. If he pitched to his norms, just the length he’d add would make the entire staff better whereas Henderson and Drohan present some real serious innings issues in the next couple weeks.

Who cares about his age compared to league average age? He’s not going to grow any taller at 23. Odds are he’s not going to pack on 20 lbs of muscle either. Is simply getting older going to allow him to drive the ball more consistently? Williams has 500+ PAs in AAA, that is significant experience especially considering in today’s game the best minor league talent barely plays in AAA at all (Caminero 236 PAs, McGonigle 0 PAs, Konnor Griffin 21 PAs, Witt Jr. 285 PAs, PCA 275 PAs, Chourio 54 PAs, Pratt 261 PAs). What is it about his current game that suggests he has a clear path to being an impact player (besides he was a first round pick and was on some prospect list)? My point is, when Jett Williams was drafted the people who scout players for a living, had concerns if his size would allow him to generate enough power to be a meaningful player in the major leagues. In the low levels of the minor leagues he was able to do it. Now, in a significant number of plate appearances against advanced pitching in AAA he hasn’t. His on base skills which have always been his calling card have deteriorated to merely average against advanced pitching as well. Williams has some tools, so you might be right and he’s not a finished product, but he’s certainly validated the skepticism about his game, and would not be considered amongst the elite prospects in the game.

Certainly Detroit’s front office is noticing how Boston got back in the race and how Minnesota has gotten back in the race. Cleveland came back from the dead in ‘25. It’s not as though their roster lacks the talent to compete with anyone in the AL, they simply have under achieved all season. I’m starting to think their GM won’t have the nerve to throw in the towel on 2026 and break up the 200M payroll team. .

I don’t disagree. That’s my whole point, the chance of Yelich ever being DFA’d before his contract expires is about 5% and maybe less i pushed back on the notion being DFA’d is some sort of humiliation for a pro baseball player. To the contrary there might be a brief ego sting, but they get paid anyways and have a chance to for a fresh start somewhere else.

They’re not in the context you’re using them though. If you want to spin it as tools, Williams is even more at a cross roads. Little guys rarely hit with enough pop to be meaningful, and like Frelick, Jett Williams isn’t suddenly going to grow 4 inches and he probably isn’t going to pack on 20 additional pounds of muscle either. But more importantly his speed and eye haven’t helped him get on base at the same rate against advanced competition as they did when he was in the low minor leagues. Like I said, he’s trade-able but rebuilding clubs want players with impact upside and Jett Williams hasn’t shown any evidence of that in a significant amount of experience in AAA, and his small size gives him little margin for error. If the shoe is on the other foot, and the Brewers were rebuilding would you be excited about shipping out a veteran player for a minor leaguer who is probably close to major league ready but is small, and might be a defense first CFer or 2B with doubles power?

Of course they can, you can even trade for major league players who are currently on the injured list

No, the Brewers traded for them because of tools, (Harrison wasn’t even a rookie player so I don’t know what his prospect pedigree would have to do with anything) and their belief they could extract additional upside from those tools. Jett Williams made prospect lists because he was succeeding in spite of scouting concerns all the way back to when he was drafted that his small size would prevent him from generating enough power against major league pitching. Now, as he has gained significant experience against advanced minor league pitching in AAA, those scouting concerns are being borne out. Further, for a player who always had an OBP/speed profile there is no realistic way to spin it but as a disappointment that his AAA OBP has been average at best. No organization is going to value a player above what his stat sheet says, simply because he was a first round pick some years ago, or was on some writer’s prospect list.

That’s the difference between us working folk, and performers with generational wealth. The DFA is a temporary ego bruise, but the obscene amounts of money that still roll in is a powerful balm. Take McCullers for example, you think he’s with a box cleaning out his locker in the Brewers clubhouse with the other players looking on? He probably took a call at the Pfister or Black Wolf Run, letting him know he was being designated for an assignment, then booked a first class flight home. The team packs up and ships his gear wherever he wants it sent. Of course, there may be some players in denial, but veteran players who have been in the game long enough to sign a multi year guaranteed contract, are certainly aware what magnitude of struggles a team will tolerate and what degree of poor performance gets you released.

It’s a fallacy that “prospect pedigree” cloaks a player in some sort of value that overcomes the stat sheet. Williams is certainly experienced against AAA pitching with 539 PAs (more than Frelick, Pratt, Mitchell, Chourio, and Lara received) and has a SLG% in AAA of .407. Not bad, but not evidence of a meaningful player. His OBP has fallen at every advancing level and is .336 in AAA; which isn’t disastrous but is certainly underwhelming for a player where OBP and speed are supposed to carry him. Is he tradeable? Sure. But probably for a 2nd tier reliever on an expiring contract and not the headliner in a deal for an impact veteran coming back to Milwaukee.

I know it’s done by other teams in baseball. But the Brewers really don’t eat big remaining guarantees except when the player has become so diminished they are not competitive. They ate $10 million when they released Cain and is .450 OPS, and as you point out they ate another $10 million when they released Suppan with his WHIP of 2.0 and ERA of 8. However, those are not the only instances. They never released Garza in ‘17 they just stopped using him and his contract expired. Ditto Kyle Lohse in ‘15, they moved him to the pen and used him sparingly. They did release Randy Wolf in 2012 but it was at the end of August and they ate just $3.5M. Yelich for all his warts is roughly a league average bat. It’s certainly disappointing production given his salad days of 2018-2019, but there’s next to zero chance he gets released or “quietly retires” absent a complete and sudden collapse of his baseball skills. Finally on a side note, I doubt major league veterans with a guaranteed salary view a DFA as embarrassing. They still get paid, which is always paramount. They are all competitors so the chance for a fresh start with a new club is probably liberating. Look at Pujols. He got DFA’d by the Angels after years of sucking went to the Dodgers played another season and a half while putting up and .850+ OPS and knocking 36 more homers.