bill hAll Star

I don't believe so. I know these rumors are swirling about Cleveland but I think they're dangling some of their expensive guys out there to cut costs (I think they're done with that, though) and if a few teams offered a bunch of top 20 prospects then they'd just go ahead and rebuild. Ramirez is: 27 years old Locked up for 4 more years with 2 of those being options in case things somehow go south Averaging roughly $5m/year Had a down year last year but still has averaged roughly 5 WAR the past 4 seasons. I think it would cost our entire farm system to knock them over into making a deal and I still don't think that does it. I know people want to jump on and see what they can get out of "cheap" ownership but maybe I'm naive in expecting the best out of people, but I don't think Cleveland is going to give away an MVP candidate locked into an extremely team friendly deal unless it is for a massive, massive haul. To me, this would be like Attanasio saying, "OK $125 million was a special one-time thing for Grandal but now we want to get down to $110-115 million" and others immediately asking if Yelich is available. I guess I'd trade him for the Dodgers 5 best prospects but otherwise that's not the best way to shave cash off of payroll.

Tailgating isn't cheap either, still have to buy all the fixins...Tickets, parking and gas money are still things that have to be paid for. Not saying anything other than it isn't cheap to go to a game. Tailgating can be done however you want it to be done. You can buy a party size bag of doritos, burgers, buns, and some american cheese/ketchup (for multiple games) for $10/person. Throw in a 12-pack of Miller Lite for $10 to share among a few people. Even a 4 pack of good IPAs (I'd hope you only drink 2 in the lot) for yourself and maybe one other person is still only $7/person or so. Or you can make fancy bloody marys and have too many drinks on hand with a full selection of meats and cheeses and everyone ends up paying $40-50. Not saying there is anything wrong with the second choice or binge drinking in the parking lot but that's not something that the Brewers make unaffordable. That's on you. I agree that almost anything in the stadium is overpriced at any ballpark. I personally go to 1-3 games/year and end up splurging on a few beers and a $12 sandwich inside but I'm only doing it a few times so it's not unaffordable. If I went to 10+ games a year, yeah...I'd be out a few hundred or grand on overpriced food/beer.

Tailgating isn't cheap either, still have to buy all the fixins...Tickets, parking and gas money are still things that have to be paid for. Not saying anything other than it isn't cheap to go to a game. Tailgating can be done however you want it to be done. You can buy a party size bag of doritos, burgers, buns, and some american cheese/ketchup (for multiple games) for $10/person. Throw in a 12-pack of Miller Lite for $10 to share among a few people. Even a 4 pack of good IPAs (I'd hope you only drink 2 in the lot) for yourself and maybe one other person is still only $7/person or so. Or you can make fancy bloody marys and have too many drinks on hand with a full selection of meats and cheeses and everyone ends up paying $40-50. Not saying there is anything wrong with the second choice or binge drinking in the parking lot but that's not something that the Brewers make unaffordable. That's on you. I agree that almost anything in the stadium is overpriced at any ballpark. I personally go to 1-3 games/year and end up splurging on a few beers and a $12 sandwich inside but I'm only doing it a few times so it's not unaffordable. If I went to 10+ games a year, yeah...I'd be out a few hundred or grand on overpriced food/beer.

While I'm fine taking him on as a utility player if getting another player with him, I am definitely not banking on this trend continuing at age 36. I mean I guess I could understand the theory that if he can rest up his injury for a long time he gets back to his old ways of being a good hitter but this seems like more of random luck when his good seasons happen than some tried and true theory of rest helping him. Also, his best season he's had as a pro came after playing a full season.

While I'm fine taking him on as a utility player if getting another player with him, I am definitely not banking on this trend continuing at age 36. I mean I guess I could understand the theory that if he can rest up his injury for a long time he gets back to his old ways of being a good hitter but this seems like more of random luck when his good seasons happen than some tried and true theory of rest helping him. Also, his best season he's had as a pro came after playing a full season.

Stearns and CC clearly believe that over time, their analysis and projections of players are correct. Shaw, Aguilar, Sogard, Villar, maybe Jennings are the bad examples. Braun, Thames, Chacin, Anderson, Davies, and now 2020 Smoak hopefully are in the collection of good examples. That analysis is, "we think this player is this good. Yes, I know the fans are yelling at me because he has struck out 15 times in the past 2 weeks or that Chacin's first month was awful...but our analysis tells us that this player should be this good with average luck." So unless you see something truly wrong with the guy, you keep running him out there. If you think Ryan Braun is an .850 OPS hitter, you do not sit him because he had an unlucky 2018 and started out 2019 with a .196 average over the first month. Guess what? It generally pays off if you correctly project players. Braun crushed the ball save for the first month and landed at an .850 OPS. In 2020 there will be 3 guys that fans are screaming at Counsell to bench and they will be right at the end of the year. However, there will be 4-5 guys that struggle mightily that Counsell sticks with that end up with great numbers by the end of the year. This is how it works.

Stearns and CC clearly believe that over time, their analysis and projections of players are correct. Shaw, Aguilar, Sogard, Villar, maybe Jennings are the bad examples. Braun, Thames, Chacin, Anderson, Davies, and now 2020 Smoak hopefully are in the collection of good examples. That analysis is, "we think this player is this good. Yes, I know the fans are yelling at me because he has struck out 15 times in the past 2 weeks or that Chacin's first month was awful...but our analysis tells us that this player should be this good with average luck." So unless you see something truly wrong with the guy, you keep running him out there. If you think Ryan Braun is an .850 OPS hitter, you do not sit him because he had an unlucky 2018 and started out 2019 with a .196 average over the first month. Guess what? It generally pays off if you correctly project players. Braun crushed the ball save for the first month and landed at an .850 OPS. In 2020 there will be 3 guys that fans are screaming at Counsell to bench and they will be right at the end of the year. However, there will be 4-5 guys that struggle mightily that Counsell sticks with that end up with great numbers by the end of the year. This is how it works.

Thinking about the little nerd guy having any kind of a large role on this team makes me violently ill. I thought this page was turned a long time ago, yet here we are, starting a new novel. He was just so bad the last time he played here, and it seems people have forgotten just how terrible he was when we released him. Let that sink in, we cut him, released him, and now we are paying him 4.5 million to return. Baseball is strange sometimes. As I noted in the signing thread, outside of the top 100 or so players in baseball, the success of the next tier of players has to do with finding perfect mechanical adjustments, stadium/team environment, and maybe age at certain times. I don't know why these deep, personal feelings cut so deep for certain fans. Chase Anderson is one of these players that drew the ire of every Haudricourt reply when he was having home run struggles. He'd tweet, "Anderson gives up a home run and the Brewers are down 2-0" and 50 replies would fill up with how terrible of a player he was. Ditto on the first month of Chacin in 2018. Then Anderson returned to being a somewhat valuable piece in 2019 and counted on. These things happen. If the generally good management team thinks that Sogard is a good utility add and that he had some bad luck in 2018 and his mechanical changes in 2017 are really the guy he is (solid 2017, good 2019) then sign me up. I really don't care about the past in these cases. If I cared that much about that I'd probably have hated half of the Brewers players in the past few years that have ever had a down season. Say Yasmani bombed in 2019 on the Brewers but was crushing the ball after fixing his mechanics on another 1-year deal in 2020 for some other team. If the Brewers traded back for him in 2020 I'd be a fan. Who cares?

OPS vs LHP: Thames: .679 (2019), .612 (2018) Smoak: .672 (2019), .688 (2018) PAs vs LHP: Thames: 62 (2019), 29 (2018) Smoak: 154 (2019), 192 (2018) You can take that in a number of ways, namely that the Blue Jays had much less motivation to try to win the last few years and that Smoak was coming off a good 2017 as a RH hitter. That said, I think the assumption would be that Thames is poor enough vs. LHP that his numbers would keep dropping with increased chances. Thames was saved in 2017 by a few HR but he was terrible at getting on base against LHP when he had some increased ABs. So yes, I do think Smoak is much better against LHP. I'd still prefer to play Braun 90% of the time in those situations, but Smoak is not a black hole, as described by the previous poster. I think Thames probably is, which is why the Brewers avoided ABs vs LHP at all costs for him. Smoak also crushed lefty pitching in 2017 as noted above. I'm not expecting that to ever happen again but it also means that I wouldn't be surprised by a solid year against LHP or maybe even one more great one. I would be completely shocked and stunned if Thames mashed LHP for 200 plate appearances in a season.

Would you also describe yourself by a pitch that is fast and up in the zone? And would you say that your favorite number is one less than twenty?

Basically what JosephC said. Cleveland has been good at doing the "sell now before you lose out" thing and just continue to restock their system, which has kept them pretty good for a long period of time given small-ish market paired with cheap ownership. I agree, they'll dangle him in the off-case that someone blows them away. I also think if a trade really does happen, the 2 main pieces will have more than 5 years of team control left.

I'm not really sure why Hader and even Peralta/Arcia would be of interest for Cleveland if they trade those two guys. If they trade those guys, they're tearing it down. Hiura makes some sense with 6 years of control but why would they want Hader as a main piece with only 4 years of control? If you trade Lindor and Clevenger, even with some solid pieces remaining, your new window starts in 2022 or 2023. Yes, Hader will still be around for a year or two at the back end...but if I am Cleveland and truly trading Clevenger and Lindor, I'm trading for some guys that are 2 years away from the majors.

26 man roster, not 28. ????? Infielders: Smoak/Braun, Hiura, Urias, Seager, Sogard, Healy Outfielders: Braun, Garcia, Cain, Gamel, Yelich Catchers: Narvaez, Pina 13 pitchers or 12 pitchers and a 3rd catcher OK, I didn't notice Arcia going out in that trade but I will still adress the fact that Healy will not be in a platoon at 3B. His splits are pretty neutral but Seager's are not drastic either. If you did Arcia for Seager I think you'd have Seager take 80% of the starts and Sogard/Urias get a few over there. I still think you'd have yet another utility guy for defensive purposes instead of Healy but it is also possible that Healy just sits as the 26th man and gets 3 ABs/week looking to tie the game in the 8th with a homer after the Brewers have pulled a lot of other strings.

26 man roster, not 28.

Thanks...good article. I had long surmised that is why Stearns did not value 2B defense and it appears that there is data to back it up.

Davis at 3rd, Urias at SS, Hiura at 2nd and Smoak at 1st would give the Brewers the worst infield defense in MLB. The Brewers haven't let perceived defensive shortcomings stand in the way of putting together their idea lineup in recent seasons. I doubt that is going to start now. Yes and no. They had Arcia anchoring them in shifts and protecting Shaw/Mous at 2B. If they go to Urias, who I am excited to see if he can step into the role but apparently is not a wizard...I'm not sure you also want a subpar 3B. Especially when you've just signed Brett Anderson.

Point taken but I will add that Miley is a lefty for the Reds.

I was the biggest Sogard hater in 2017. I saw some of the improvements in hard hit % and launch angle but thought it was all luck. I was obviously cheering for the team but was also expecting some of the dropoff he had later in the 2017 season. All of that said, I personally don't care what his 2018 was like. If Travis Shaw hit 30 HR with a .350 OBP next year after a one year contract for someone and then wanted to come back to the Brewers, I'd take him. I don't really see why there is such a stigma around these guys. Who cares? Other than the top 100 or so players in the game who perennially are very good, the next 200-300 guys are all talented enough that they can fluctuate between good and not very good based on team, health, mechanical adjustments, etc. This is the Chase Anderson, Davies, etc. tier of player. If they think Sogard will succeed and can get him to do so, by all means, pay market value for him.

I feel like Asdrubal is ready to fall off a click but there is zero evidence or logic behind that other than age and how he looks running around out there. But he does keep putting up productive seasons. I know that Seager is coming off an injury but for some reason I trust that more. Of course it's a lot more cash to him than to Asdrubal so maybe Seattle does eat some.

I really don't see Healy starting in the majors. Not only have they basically stated he'll be down there due to rehabbing an injury, I just trust that Stearns will not go with a guy with this weak of a track record and 3B defense going into a contending season. It is illogical to have Healy penned into a major role.

It was reported that he would get rid of that player option if traded to a contender. Yeah but I'm pretty sure Seager also graded the Brett Anderson signing an F and laughed at the Brewers for signing Sogard for more money after his abysmal 2018 stint with the team and therefore I doubt he considers them a contender.

If the Brewers are in on Donaldson or might end up overpaying for Seager. This is like when you're sitting in an auction fantasy draft and you've paid for bargains in the middle with a list of sleepers in your pocket at the end. "Alright, I think Ryan McMahon is a sneaky pickup this year with a starting role in Coors." Or maybe you didn't grab a 1B but you were waiting to buy a Joey Votto bounceback the whole time. Then you get to that portion of the draft and not only do you have $20 to spread across your sleepers...but 3 other guys all have $15-20. You finally nominate the guy you want to sneak through and the bidding keeps going up by a dollar. In the end you end up paying more for Votto than 3 or 4 of the guys ranked in front of him. I'm not going to complain if the Brewers take on most or all of Seager's contract or really do pay Donaldson big money. But we're at that point of the game where that may be the option.

Say the Nats or a similar team strike out on Donaldson. Why wouldn't they just say, "no, Mariners, we'll just take Seager. If the Brewers want Justus Sheffield thrown in, we don't need him if that's what wins us the trade from you." The way the market is going I don't think the Mariners are going to have to toss in a prospect to get a team to take most of Seager's money.

Smoak is probably the ~1 WAR guy he seems to be. He had a miraculous season from the RH side of the plate in 2017. I think if platooned correctly he will provide good value. His value was bogged down a bit by getting a fair amount of RH plate appearances the past two years.

I feel like after teams strike out on Donaldson that the Mariners will not be forced to attach a pretty good prospect to get someone on the hook for most or all of Seager's salary. I'm guessing it's more likely the Brewers send something of value AND pick up a good deal of the contract.