Looking at historic extensions since 2009 (Note that I'm including extensions only and not FA contracts):
Ryan Braun 2009 - Buyout of Arbitration and a few years of FA. 7 years, $55.5M 2016 - Second Extension: 5 years, $89.3M Corey Hart 2010: Final year of arbitration plus 2 years of FA: 3 years, $26.5M Yovani Gallardo 2010 – Arbitration plus 1 (or two) years of FA: 5 years, $30.1M with 1 club option ($42.5M total) Rickie Weeks 2011: Final year of arbitration plus 4 years of FA: 5 years, $50M Jonathan Lucroy 2012: Arbitration plus a club option for 1 year FA: 5 years, $11M with 1 club option ($16.25M total) Carlos Gomez 2013 – All arbitration years: 4 years, $28.3M Christian Yelich 2015: All arbitration and 3 years of FA: 7 years $49.6M (with the Marlins) 2020: Second Extension – 9 years $215M Freddie Peralta 2020: All arbitration (plus club option for 2 years of FA) - 5 years, $15.5M plus 2 club option years ($30M total) Aaron Ashby 2022: All arbitration (plus club option for 2 years FA) - 5 years, 20.5M with 2 club option years ($42.5M total) Jackson Chourio 2024: All arbitration plus 2 (or 4) years of FA – 8 years $82M with 2 club option years ($142.5M total) *Note: Contract details come from internet searches and might not be perfect on exact dollar amounts given conflicting articles. But the timing and number of arbitration and free agent years covered (which is the point I'm making) is accurate.
So the question comes to… who is next?
It would seem that our best extensions were ones that bought out arbitration and a year or two of FA. The only two players we extended past that were Braun and Yelich. In both cases, we knew it would be fine initially and a bit painful at the end of the contract. Outside of steroid-gate (and the subsequent suspension), Braun earned his money up to the thumb injury. Yelich unfortunately hurt his back immediately after signing the extension and went from a 7+bWAR player to the current 2-3 bWAR player he is today. At 33 years old with 3 years more on the contract, he probably won’t be any more than a 3 bWAR player.
Ashby’s extension might be the only first contract that didn’t work out great for the Brewers – though I’d be hard pressed to call it a “bust” either. On the other sides, the initial Braun and Yelich extensions along with Freddy’s extension were rousing wins for the Brewers. Chourio’s extension is also well on its way to joining them, but too early to know for sure right now.
My favorite targets for extension (in age order):
William Contreras – This one might be a bit too late as we just finalized his last year of arbitration. With a 4.9 bWAR season in 2024 (and gathered MVP votes), he managed 3.9 bWAR last year with a broken finger. Now 28 years old and healthy, I think he is going to have a great season. I wouldn’t pay him like an MVP, but he is clearly a top 3-4 catcher in the majors. A 4-year extension would be a great way to pair Contreras with the coming wave of talent without putting an anchor around the Brewer’s payroll with a player long past his prime. He also has an intangible leadership quality that was emphasized even more after losing Adames. Brice Turang – Brice’s ascension the last couple of years has been fun to watch. Hard to believe that a couple of years ago, there were questions on whether he was a MLB caliber player. His OPS+ (61, 85, 121) and bWAR (1.5, 4.7, 5.6) growth shows his growing value to the team; not only defensively but offensively as well. Plus, he just showcased that to the world with a strong WBC performance. Brice is pre-arbitration right now, so he fits right into the Brewer’s MO for an extension. Jacob Misiorowski – Despite Jacob’s All-Star Appearance and good playoff performance, his rookie season was only average on the whole. But his ceiling is undeniable and the Brewers don’t have another pitcher with top of the rotation potential like him. But as with all pitchers, there is the risk of injury sapping his ceiling and this is an area that seems to bite the Brewers more often than not. Jesus Made – Three years ago, suggesting this type of extension would’ve been widely ridiculed… but along came Jackson Chourio and his 8 (or 10) year extension before he was even on the 40-man roster. But did we just get a once-in-a-generation type player twice in 2 years? Jackson played most of the year at AA and just touched AAA before signing his contract that precipitated his 20 year-old rookie season. Now the highly touted Made is set to play at AA this year with AAA easily in his reach, will the Brewers take the same approach and sign him to a long term deal that will pair our future to these two young and exciting players? Who is your choice?
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