topper09er

Now they can rock Halladay because there is no pressure to win

Yuni is embarrasing. How do you not get behind that ball, he looks like a little leaguer who doesnt get behind balls because they are scared of getting hit

Not if you compare him to everyone else in the league minus their one ugly game. If you do this he will still be towards the bottom of MLB pitchers. I find it hard to say someone had a pretty nice season if it below average.

Correct, you remove outliers if you have a justifiable reason that it does not reflect the same sample as the rest of your data point, or it was collected under different conditions. For example in structural testing which I have background in, you may throw out an outlier because you determined that the strain gage collecting that data was broken or not calibrated correctly thus the data it gives is not the same as other data points in the sample from funtional strain gages. Or you may throw out a data point because it failed by a different mode thus you essentially did not conduct the same experiment as the other data points, there are many reasons for this. You CANNOT remove a data point simply because it is different from the others. Baseball is different, every start you are facing major league hitters and you try to get them out. The lineups and parks are different but there are factors to account for this like ERA+ or WAR. Unless you have a good reason as to why Wolf facing the Pirates on July 21, 2010 was fundamentally different than any other MLB starting pitcher facing any other MLB lineup then you cant just throw it away because it is an "outlier". This is the other problem, what is an outlier? This is the major problem I have with many sabr inclined people is that they do not understand statistics and treat baseball as if everything has tight normal distributions where the average of any population is a good approximation for the population and all baseball events are independent, random variables. If this was the case you would be able to predict baseball events with some degree on uncertainty, and if you could do that you should move to Las Vegas and become a millionaire. What type of distribution applies to the ERA of a MLB pitcher on any given outing? Normal, log-normal, gamma? Can you predict how many of those will occur this season, how confident are you in that prediction? Basically, can you prove this is an outlier even if it is the only time it has ever happened to Randy Wolf in his whole career?

OK, this seriously needs to end. Betancourt sucks, stop hoping that this will magically change, or quit your job and just assume that you will win the lottery and everything will work out which would be a similar leap of faith. The people who are naively giving Yuni a chance to show his stuff are making the same mistake as Ronny batting Gomez 2nd over and over. Im sure Roenicke came in during spring training and gave some speech like every position is open and whoever earns it gets it blah blah even though some positions were not up for grab. He did not want to judge his team based on previous seasons or managers because maybe these guys would respond differently blah blah. Then, unfortunately for all of us, Gomez was hot all spring (although his approach did not change at all and the only difference was that he was facing spring training pitching: .333/.344/.667 3 HR over 63 AB....WITH ONE WALK). So based on this Roenicke is letting him bat 2nd because if he could actually hit .333/.344 in the 2 hole that would be great. He is ignoring the 1400+ PAs Gomez has previously had against MLB pitching when he hit .244/.292. All of us here could have told him Gomez would suck, swing at every pitch and never walk and be a terrible 2 hitter in front of the best 3-4 combo in MLB. This is why it is frustrating for us because we feel like everyone in world knows Gomez sucks at hitting except Roenicke who is magically hoping he will turn this around and stop swinging at every pitch. The Yuni defenders (how ironic) are choosing to ignore his past which shows he sucks and only judge him based on what they see with their own eyes in Milwaukee, exactly what Roenicke is doing with Gomez's hitting. This is causing 2 problems, 1 is that people are incorrectly evaluating Yuni based on some unreliable stats or misguided eye tests (like saying he is doing OK because he doesnt have many errors without realizing it is his lack of getting to balls that is his weakness, and this fact actually causes him to have fewer errors because you cant throw a ball into the stands that is slowly rolling in left field), and the other bigger problem is that his entire record shows he sucks and anyone could have told you that (like KC or SEA fans, scouts or stats). Basically by "giving Yuni a chance" you are making the same mistake that Roenicke is with Gomez in the batting order, and time will show you are wrong because guys do not magically completely reverse years of consistent trends. Also, why were we excited to get Greinke? Because he has a proven track record of being a stud including one of the best seasons in the past 30 years for an MLB pitcher. So why is it OK to assume he will continue to be a valuable player when he has not done anything as a brewer? Why will his home debut be a sellout? Why is it OK to be excited about him but not mad with Betancourt? Shouldnt we instead have a discussion on the fact that Greinke may have been good in the past but I am not passing judgement on him until he makes 10 starts for the brewers, and if those starts do not result in great stats we should assume he sucks and will never be able to dominate?

If you remove Gallardo's worst start, 7 ER in 3.1 IP, his ERA was 3.56.

Wolf's average start minus best 4 and worst 2 from 2010 (for ease I ranked best and worst starts based on game score): IP 6.08 H 6.32 R 3.04 ER 2.79 BB 2.71 SO 4.18 HR 0.75 HBP 0.29 ERA 4.13 WHIP 1.49 Replacement level pitching for Wolf last season was a 4.70 ERA. Thus we can expect him to be pretty close to replacement level. Edit: The ERA was wrong before, by a lot.

Id start Plush even against the lefty so he can show the Nats they made a mistake (and because he is better than any other option).

Baseball-reference uses Total Zone and Fangraphs uses UZR. That is why their WAR values are different.

Im not sure if you looked at the link? Baseball-reference uses total zone. If you hover over the +3 you cited it saying Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average.

But when will this end, will he just be able to maintain a 4-4.25 ERA until he is 55 years old? No, he will drop off at some point. Although there are no specific stats that point to this season being worse than usual for him, by watching this guy pitch I am of the opinion that he will be worse than last year, and by next year we will be regretting the huge contract he has which will keep him in the rotation until August of 2012. That is what I meant by Jeff Suppan 2.0, we will regret his contract and it will keep him in the rotation longer than he would if he was a young cheap guy we could just put in the pen.

Jeff Suppan's 3 full seasons in MKE: 07: 4.62 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 2.5 WAR 08: 4.96 ERA, 5.51 FIP, -0.2WAR 09: 5.29 ERA, 5.70 FIP, -0.7 WAR Randy Wolf in MKE: 10: 4.17 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 0.7 WAR Suppan was much better than Wolf in their first years in milwaukee, then Suppan completely fell off a cliff. You cant just assume forever that every player will be able to revert back to their previous year's pace, players get older and skills diminish. There have been 100s of MLB pitchers who have hit a wall in their age 34 season. Wolf has been absolutely crushed in spring training and by the 2 major league teams he has faced this season. He dominated yesterday but I have a feeling outings like that will be pretty common against the pirates this year.

Total zone just assigns responsibility of each hit to different players weighed differently. Therefore it takes time to average out. For example, a hit to right is charged to the RF, even if it is a rope down the line hit so hard even Mr. Plush could not get to it. Over a small sample some guys are lucky by having most balls hit right at them or unlucky with balls that Ozzie Smith could not have turned into outs. Over a longer time the hits even out. This number is also compared to average, and I am starting to think all the shifting the brewers are doing is really helping their defense a lot. Over the season this may cause Betancourt to field many more balls than the average SS, not because he is good at getting to them, but because the shift put him in a better position. This will cause him to look like an above average fielder, when he is clearly not.

Rule 10.16(i) applies (i) When pitchers are changed during an inning, the relief pitcher shall not have the benefit of previous chances for outs not accepted in determining earned runs. Rule 10.16(i) Comment: It is the intent of Rule 10.16(i) to charge a relief pitcher with earned runs for which such relief pitcher is solely responsible. In some instances, runs charged as earned against the relief pitcher can be charged as unearned against the team. For example: (1) With two out and Peter pitching, Abel reaches first base on a base on balls. Baker reaches first base on an error. Roger relieves Peter. Charlie hits a home run, scoring three runs. The official scorer shall charge two unearned runs to Peter, one earned run to Roger and three unearned runs to the team (because the inning should have ended with the third out when Baker batted and an error was committed). This happened on Sunday in Cincy, if you look carefully at the box score you see 9 individual earned runs but only 8 team earned runs. The inning in question is the 6th: Bottom of the 6th, Reds Batting, Ahead 7-3, Brewers' Brandon Kintzler facing 2-3-4 b6 7-3 0 --- 3,(0-2) CIN B. Phillips B. Kintzler 1% 96% Single to RF (Line Drive to Short RF) b6 7-3 0 1-- 1,(0-0) CIN J. Votto B. Kintzler 1% 97% Reached on E6/attempted forceout (Ground Ball to Weak SS); Phillips to 2B b6 7-3 0 12- 3,(0-2) CIN S. Rolen B. Kintzler 1% 98% Balk; Phillips to 3B; Votto to 2B b6 7-3 0 -23 9,(3-2) RO CIN S. Rolen B. Kintzler -0% 98% Flyball: CF/Sacrifice Fly (Deep CF); Phillips Scores/unER b6 8-3 1 -2- 4,(1-2) CIN J. Gomes B. Kintzler 0% 98% Single to 2B (Ground Ball to SS-2B); Votto to 3B Mitch Stetter replaces Brandon Kintzler pitching and batting 9th b6 8-3 1 1-3 1,(0-0) CIN J. Bruce M. Stetter 0% 98% Gomes Steals 2B b6 8-3 1 -23 4,(2-1) O CIN J. Bruce M. Stetter -1% 98% Popfly: SS b6 8-3 2 -23 2,(0-1) RRR CIN R. Hanigan M. Stetter 2% 100% Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Votto Scores/unER; Gomes Scores/unER; Hanigan Scores/Team unER b6 11-3 2 --- 6,(3-2) O CIN P. Janish M. Stetter -0% 100% Lineout: LF (Short LF-CF) 4 runs, 3 hits, 1 error, 0 LOB. Brewers 3, Reds 11.The inning should have been over for the team when Hannigan was up, BUT the inning should not have been over for Stetter so the run is charged to Stetter but not the team.

This would imply half of the major league SS have worse range than he does, but to me it looks like 0 SS have worse range than he does, including Jeter.

Quade only said these things to stick up for his players (Soto) who was embarrassed by Gomez. This is the only reason Quade said these things, because he thinks it is in the best interest of Soto's confidence level. Remembering managing these 30 year old babies who are not used to looking bad is a major job of a manager and you have to always give your players the impression you support them 100% or they will not play as hard/focused as possible.

Randy Wolf = Jeff Suppan 2.0. He cant get quality mlb hitters out. He will also remain in the rotation the entire year due to his contract.

It would be even better if you could somehow make a Tony Plush tuxedo t-shirt brewer uniform

If Nieves can groundout to SS twice on Monday we would have swept the Braves, who is a good team.

Lets go Sergio http://mystiqueandaura.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/meat_tray.jpg

It is not a nickname, it is another person. For example, when he is on the ball field or ice rink he is a bad mother who doesn't back down from anyone including catchers who weigh 100 lbs more than him. When he is accompanying a fashionable young debutant to the opera, tasting wine, hunting foxes or playing bridge he becomes the charming chap Tony Plush.

That DP was another below average fastball Marcum left up and it got crushed. KEEP THE BALL DOWN

Gameday has not updated in about 10 minutes for me, anyone else?

Ground out Kot

Marcum does not have a good enough fastball to blow it by anyone up with 2 strikes. Same thing he tried to do against Rolen when he gave up the HR. Keep the ball down with 2 strikes Marcum.