topper09er
-
Posts
6,158 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by topper09er
-
No, you are less likely to score 1 run, you are more likely to score more than one run. Also, the chart only shows average numbers, so it really should never be applied to any one in game scenario because there are too many factors in play that are different from an "average" scenario. Also, the main reason not bunting leads to more runs is that you have one extra chance to hit a HR, but as a manager you should take into account your chances of hitting HRs. It is stupid to always assume someone will hit a HR for you when you need it, especially if it is Ecobar or Counsell or someone who rarely hits HRs. I would be willing to bet those charts would look much different if you threw out all innings without HRs.
-
And he was wrong if you are talking about the chances that the runner himself will score, only of course based on the average outcome of thousands of in-game situations. For any one given scenario many things need to be considered before making a decision and there is not absolute right/wrong decision or formula that can account for the uniqueness of every in-game situation. http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html Base Outs Runs 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Empty 0 0.707 0.154 0.074 0.035 0.016 0.013 Empty 1 0.827 0.101 0.042 0.017 0.007 0.005 Empty 2 0.923 0.051 0.017 0.005 0.002 0.001 1st 0 0.563 0.176 0.132 0.067 0.034 0.028 1st 1 0.717 0.123 0.091 0.04 0.017 0.013 1st 2 0.864 0.062 0.049 0.016 0.006 0.003 2nd 0 0.368 0.348 0.142 0.076 0.035 0.03 2nd 1 0.594 0.23 0.098 0.045 0.018 0.014 2nd 2 0.777 0.147 0.049 0.017 0.006 0.003
-
Nice number crunching, too bad it has never occured to Macha to think about something this beforehand so he would know the correct decision in the game. Similar to how football coaches have charts that tell them in what score scenarios they should go for 2 so they dont have to think about it in the heat of the game. Plus as I said McGehee has some catching experience. -
McGehee C, Braun 3B, pitcher in LF given the very rare situation that a catcher has to leave the game due to injury
-
Was that some Telly gold?
-
Worst case scenario if Kot goes down, McGehee at C, Braun at 3B, Gallardo in LF.....only IF the catcher gets injured, which is pretty rare.
-
WALK-off please
-
Kottaras better have injured himself on third or DFA Macha
-
I think you have to put someone in the on deck circle, he doesnt need a bat though, he could just sit on the ground and watch
-
I guess Macha disagrees
-
I hate you Macha, why no Lucroy, seriously, catchers do not get injured in 85% of games.
-
Which is what Corey made it sound like on the radio
-
But if you are in the stadium in person you need to watch the OFers, if they are running full speed they think they have a chance to catch it. If they start jogging or just watch and look you know it is gone.
-
Just turned the radio on in the office...man did Corey pull a real BA there with that call on Prince's fly out. Everyone thought it over initially
-
Finally clutch hitting
-
You gotta think the Astros would give Weeks 2B here to avoid a possible double steal, but I wouldnt send him until 2 strikes on CarGo
-
Great AB Weeks, all we need is a SF or with gomez a weakly hit IF groundball...but do the brewers know how to situationally hit?
-
Wow, Macha bunts with a non-pitcher, Im stunned.
-
Corey should run here with 2 outs
-
It was a question, Im only on gameday...but im sure it would have worked either way.
-
We've only given up 3 today
-
How brutal was that throwing error by Weeks?
-
Astros have had leadoff man on in 4 of 6 innings
-
We need to vote Casey to start the all-star game so I can have something to look forward to for a while.
