BrewerProspectus

No, I'm pretty sure you can trade prospects, provided that they're not a part of the 40 man roster (think that's the case). I don't think Hardy would make it that far unclaimed, however. The best time for this trade will likely be in the offseason. Here's a link on how the process works, but it says nothing about this issue http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1362

Agreed, I think Buchholz is a possibility if Tazawa pitches well this week and/or DiceK/Wakefield demonstrate that they're close to returning.

From Buster Olney today....(I'm not sure if JJ will pass thru waivers however)... 2. Heard this: The Brewers' J.J. Hardy has not passed through waivers yet, and given Boston's need for a shortstop, you wonder if he would be a natural target for the Red Sox if Milwaukee -- now six games out in the NL Central -- decides to wave the white flag later this month. Boston and Milwaukee had some talks before the trade deadline about Hardy, who is hitting .228 with 11 homers and 45 RBI, but had a major disagreement at that time about the shortstop's value: The Brewers wanted top-of-the line pitching, and the Red Sox thought that was too expensive, given his poor numbers this year, his streaky nature and his escalating salary (he's making $4.65 million this year and is arbitration eligible). The Brewers, of course, have a shortstop in waiting in Triple-A, in Alcides Escobar.

I think a month ago that was true about Buchholz, but as someone who lived in Boston for quite some time (tho not currently), the shine has worn off him, and most true Sox fans who don't get blinded by the hype machines, recognize he's at best a #3 in the AL; he just doesn't have the demeanor of a #1--he's really a lot like Manny. Last 100 innings in MLB, he has allowed 180 base-runners. Just think about that for a second....I think Hardy for Buchholz is a lot more realistic than it was a month ago. Bard will be the Sox closer in two years; if they're not dealing him for Halladay, they're not dealing him for Hardy.

I think the JJ Putz deal is more realistic as a model, although there were some other parts that make it more complex. In any case, I don't think DelCarmen is neccessarily out of line as a return for Hardy in terms of pure "value", I just think that the Red Sox (or perhaps I'm just projecting my own preference) value him more than they do the upgrade that Hardy would provide over Lowrie/whoever for 1 year. For what it's worth, I think the Giants are selling high on Alderson even though they probably could have gotten more for him. His delivery screams inverted W, even to a non-expert at mechanics like myself. It's pretty unlikely the Sox would trade for Hardy and only keep him for one year; but like like I said, even if they did that, the two draft picks themselves would hold far more value than Manny friggin Delcarmen. I'm not sure what you're trying to compare w/ the Putz analogy, but prior to his move to the Mets, he was one of the better closers in the game. Manny Delcarmen hasn't even been an elite set-up guy, much less a decent closer. The point about the Sanchez trade is that solid, MLB positions players hold far more value than do prospects, or relief pitchers. Alderson was a very highly regarded prospect, akin to perhaps Bowden w/in the Sox organization. JJ Hardy has been a better player than Freddie Sanchez, this year notwithstanding, at a position that's much harder to find a quality bat. Delcarmen's about to get run out of Boston b/c the hometown boy has lost much of his local appeal. It's pretty ridiculous to suggest that would be a fair deal. As I said, the more Buchholz pitches in MLB, the more of a #3-5 rotation pitcher he appears to be--perhaps that's why the Sox kept him in the minors for so long. That's about what Hardy could expect to get at this point. If Boston won't do it, then there will be others.

So you don't think we could get a reliever for Hardy? That's ridiculous considering that right now you either sign him and get him for however many years he signs for or you let him walk and get two picks for him. Agreed. Take a look at what Freddie Sanchez commanded and then argue that JJ Hardy is worth only a reliever. Yes, he may be "only" a 1 year rental, but he's also likely to be a Type A free agent. Those two first round picks are worth more than said reliever. Bowden could definitely be had in a deal for Hardy as could likely Buchholz, considering his performance of late against big league pitching. He's looking a lot more like a Manny Parra type pitcher/prospect than he is Tommy Hanson. Bard is likely untouchable though.

Well we could spend all our time trying to build an offense with Braun at every position and sign FA pitchers like you want, but there doesn't seem to be enough money to go around... Somewhere, somehow, the Brewers need more top of the rotation pitching. Not Lowe, or Davis, anyone else from FA, but a young pitcher that can be in the rotation for 3-6 years. agreed. but it's unlikely you'd get that value from a McGehee trade this offseason. Hart and hardy? Yes. But unlikely McGehee, just yet.

I don't expect him to do that which is why I would trade him now.But who else does tho? You're not going to get that sort of value in a deal for him now anyway, so why not keep him and see if that transpires? I think far more teams will value Corey Hart wayyy more than Casey McGehee; so much so that the return from the Hart deal would supersede their difference in production next year (which will likely be below those numbers above).

not necessarily. Look at the arm the Pirates acquired for Freddie Sanchez, who is not as good of a palyer as JJ Hardy. Depends on a team's specific needs as much as anything. A Braun or Fielder package would net a top of the rotation starter amongst a litany of other top tier prospects. Actually, the Sanchez trade proves my point. Sanchez netted a very good 20 year old pitcher who just made it AA this summer. I guess I didn't make my point well. I see Hardy bringing someone like Tim Alderson and maybe another player or two in the high minors who doesn't have Alderson's upside. I don't see Hardy bringing a Gallardo type pitcher who is part of the Opening Day 2010 rotation. To get someone at that talent level they will be coming from A or AA ball with the chance of making the team in late 2010 or 2011.OK, gotcha. With that, I agree. But provided that Hardy picks up his play a bit over the final two months, I do think Hardy (and perhaps top 15-20 prospect) could fetch a Clay Buchholz (assuming Clay isn't lights out). Whether he could get a Tillman or Arrieta from Baltimore or not would depend on a couple of other factors (how well Hardy performs the rest of the year, the ceiling of the other prospect likely to be included, the Orioles' desire to win next year, etc.). If the Brewers can land a Kazmir or Shields with a Hart trade (more would be required to land Shields), it lessens the need for the Hardy trade to net a 2010 rotation starter, and the Brewers could afford to have that top pitching prospect pitch in AAA for a year and perhaps bring up as a bullpen arm for the second half (ala Price, Joba, Hughes etc.). That would be my personal preference.

not necessarily. Look at the arm the Pirates acquired for Freddie Sanchez, who is not as good of a palyer as JJ Hardy. Depends on a team's specific needs as much as anything. A Braun or Fielder package would net a top of the rotation starter amongst a litany of other top tier prospects.

I love the idea, unfortunately I don't think it's realistic. Nobody is going to give up a solid #2 type starting pitcher for Hardy and McGehee. Think about a year ago or so when Gallardo was the #2 pitcher behind Sheets. Would you trade Gallardo for Hardy and McGehee?? Sure we could get the Nats #2 starter, but I don't think that's what you had in mind. I think a more practical way to go would be to trade some combination of Weeks, McGehee, Hardy, Hart, etc. for a real solid bullpen arm or two, and/or a starting CF. Not as urgent as starting pitching, but needed just the same. Any real quality starting pitcher that can be had in atrade will have injury issues, or in the last year of their contract. Best bet will be to sign a Free Agent for big bucks, someone with a talent level somewhere between Suppan and Sabathia. Otherwise, I'm sure Melvin will try to turn water into wine by bringing a few guys into camp with potential. Then it's wait for the farm. I just don't see an easy way to add a front of the rotation type of starter, there's lots of teams looking for the same thing. Take a look at what Freddie Sanchez commanded. Despite his struggles this year, JJ Hardy could command a significant starting pitcher by himself. For all that people have genuflected at the feet of Clay Buchholz, he looked like a #3-5 starter at best yesterday. That's why players like Hardy hold a lot more value than they're given credit for (don't forget, he's a borderline Type A FA after next year--if he has a good "contract year" he'll definitely be class A). That said, I think the debate comes down to the value the Brewers can get b/w Hart and Mcgehee. The Brewers are almost assuredly dealing Hardy and could include either Hart or Casey along with Hardy to net a #2 type SP (would probably have to happen in the case of Mcgehee, but not necessarily w/ Hart), but I think they may be able to comparable value by dealing Hart an dHardy separately (perhaps w/ a prospect included). The Rays are a very good option for Hart and a deal for Kazmir or even Shields is a possibility due to their financial constraints, window to contend (now), and compulsion to deal Crawford this offseason. In that case, the difference in prodcution b/w Hart and Mcgehee would likely be offset by the greater pitching value of a James Shields/Scott Kazmir trade vs. that which a McGehee trade would recover. If the Brewers could get Shields for a Hart/Lucory type offer or even Kazmir straight up for Hart, then move Gamel to right and Mcgehee to 3rd, that would probably be their best option than dealing McGehee with Hardy, who alone should net a pretty good prospect. The more that Buchholz struggles this year, the more likely a Hardy trade becomes; otherwise, Hardy could net one of the Orioles' young arms (see the Sanchez trade for comparison purposes). So while McGehee may be playing over his head right now and may produce less next year, I think that production would be more than offset by the windfall of a Hart deal than if the Brewers just attempted to capitalize alone on McGehee's "sell high" season right now.

Brewers and Rays make a lot of sense together, but I'm not sure they'd be interested in Hardy b/c of Bartlett. If the Brewers could swing a Hardy/Hart/Lucroy for Kaz/Crawford deal, that'd be great--and there's a lot of sense to it b/c it allows the Rays to continue to push to win in this window but also gives them much greater financial flexibility. If that's not possible, i'd like to see the Brewers attempt to work out a Hart for Shields swap and settle w/ a Hart for Kazmir deal if that isn't possible.

Not only that, but in this economy, teams will be less likely to claim players w/ large contracts b/c the risk of being saddled w/ that contract is too high. in fact, this could be an opportunity to get rid of Suppan; teams like LAD or SF may need an experienced SP for the stretch run (both teams are having issues here w/ Billingsley faltering and Randy needing surgery; both teams play in pitcher friendly ballparks in the NL) and may be willing to take on Soup's final year. Replacing those payroll dollars next year could be very significant for this team.

Kazmir looked pretty damn good last night against the Yankees. I'd definitely move Hart for either Kaz or Shields.

I'm completely making stuff up b/c you're failing to recognize what the entire world of baseball knows: that the AL East has the best collective pitching staff of any division in baseball AND that the hitting and pitching in the AL is far superior to the NL? OK bud, if you disagree with that based on your arguments that "well the ERA of the NL Central clubs is lower" and "the AL offensive numbers are inflated because they have a DH," then you're absolutely delusional. Sure they did give up elite prospects, but that's a sunk cost at this point unless they're really intending to re-sign him. Again, take a look at what Harden was acquired for and let me know which one is an "elite prospect." Bedard has no higher trade value than Harden just because he was originally acquired at a steep price. That was the old mariner GM's mistake, not Jack Z's.

we'll end the discussion there. If you believe that Ted Lilly is as good as CC Sabathia just b/c his ERA and WHIP is similar, despite pitching in vastly different leagues, we'll just never agree. There's a reason why CC was unhittable in the NL and less dominant in the AL. But I do agree, the Cubs and Cards have very good rotations--I said that from the beginning--the rest of the NL, not so much. But the fact that the Cubs and Cards do have a comparable rotation to the AL East is even further justification for the Brewers to acquire an arm like Bedard. as I said earlier, that one start shouldn't matter in the whole scheme of things, except for the fact that he looks healthy.... Like Harden who had a very similar track record (with injuries and production), Bedard will not cost elite prospects--perhaps maybe someone like Jeffress if Jack Z wants to take on that risk...but he won't cost Escobar, Gamel, Lawrie etc. In fact, Harden had more value as he was under contract for another year (Bedars is a FA). Davis may be haviong a heck of a season, but he is what he is at this point...and that is not a top 2 rotation starter--what the Brewers need to make it to October.

no offense, but Brendan Katin couldn't hold Travis Snider's jock in terms of "talent." there's no way this is close to what they'd get for Halladay. Have you seen Snider's OPS? It's .686 as of now (per Baseball-Reference.com). yes. and I also have seen this.... http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267698.html

no offense, but Brendan Katin couldn't hold Travis Snider's jock in terms of "talent." there's no way this is close to what they'd get for Halladay.

Post from page 17: Please stop making the AL/NL comparisons - The majority of AL teams will rank ahead of NL teams because of the DH...... I don't mean to be rude, but it's downright foolish to compare team stats from the 2 leagues. The O's primary DH has 17HR's and 50 RBI's...... take that away and replace it with a pitcher hitting and they fall into the bottom portion between the 2 leagues. The O's went on to put up 10 runs after Bedard left - so they obviously were swining the bats pretty well, but when it comes down to it, they are a below average team offensively. The stats back this up. This has gotten way off topic though - Bedard shouldn't be an option unless he can come over for a few lower level prospects and nothing major, otherwise I'd rather pass on him. The cubs comparison is a fare one, but they still had a pretty solid staff without Harden in Z, Dempster and Lilly. The Brewers don't and if they are gonna make a move and have it pay off - the guy they trade for needs to be durable if they are going to have a shot at post season baseball. They ARE in the top 1/2 of the league in OPS/Runs scored/OBP etc; That's a fact. AGREED that these stats may be inflated b/c of the DH, but I'm NOT the one that pulled up these stats initially; I simply pointed out to the original poster that the stats he used didn't fit his argument that they're "only the Orioles." I then responded that while they have a DH to "inflate" their offensive stats, they're undoubtedly going up against superior pitching than their NL counterparts, so you cannot just dismiss their superior stats as "DH inflated" (to which you responded w/ the non-senical comparisons of team ERA in attempting to say that the pitching staffs are as good in the NL Central has as they are in the AL East b/c of a highly suspect stat). AL East pitching >> NL pitching, so you cannot view OL offensive states solely through the prism that they're "better than they would be in the NL" just b/c they have a DH hitting instead of a pitcher. If anything's foolish in this argument, it's that ignorance. So if you'd like to "take away" the DH and replace w/ a pitcher, you cannot ignore the difference in the quality of the pitching staffs (that said, your argument isn't accurate in the first place since most teams would have that DH play in the field if they didn't have a DH; so it's not a DH's bat vs. a pitcher's bat, it's a less valuable position player's bat vs. a pitcher's bat...i.e. Ortiz would be playing first and Kotsay would be on the bench if there were no DH for the Red Sox; thus, offensively-speaking, you compare Kotsay to a pitcher, NOT Ortiz to a pitcher....but as w/ most of the recent comments, that's neither here nor there...) Bedard is certainly an injury risk, but he's a far better option than Doug Davis, who won't take this team to the playoffs--you can guarantee that. IF the Brewers have no interest in making the playoffs, then they should deal Hardy and others now....but that's not the current plan (that'll come this offseason)--making the playoffs is the goal, w/out giving up Escobar or Gamel. To that end, Bedard makes the most sense...despite the injury risk.

I think you're confusing my point. I never said they're a top offense, I said they would be in the national league after stats pointed to them being middle of the road in the AL w/ only 3-4 NL teams ranked above them. You yourself mention that they rank in the bottom half of "their league." As Keith Law said yesterday, there's about a ten win difference between the AL and NL (and if you watched any of the Interleague games w/ the Brewers, I think that distinction is pretty obvious). Therefore, the O's have a respectable offense when you look at the entire league as well as how they would rank compared to their NL counterparts. as i mentioned earlier, this whole discussion about the O's offense is irrelevant and confuses the point of the thread; the initial poster was attempting to diminish Bedard's performance by saying that it was "against the Orioles", when in fact, the Orioles have a respectable offense particularly CONSIDERING what Bedard would be going up against in the NL (most NL offenses are not as potent as the Orioles). If he can do that well against the Orioles, as the original poster attempted to argue, it would not would not follow that he wouldn't do well in the NL. So, do not view the Orioles through the prism of how they rank "in their league" but as a reflection of how Bedard would perform against similar, or less potent offenses in the NL. That's the last I'll say about that.

Didn't your previous post answer your own criticism here? You just made a cyclical argument; of course they've got higher ERA's b/c of the lineups they're facing (DH included), but that doesn't mean their rotations are better, and it certainly doesn't mean their starting pitchers are better. Sox, Yanks, Rays and Jays all have rotations at least as good, if not better, than the the Cubs and Cards. answer me this: would you rather have Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ian Snell, Ohlendorf etc. OR CC, Joba, Burnett, Pettite. Or how about Lester, Penny, Beckett etc. Cards and Cubs have very good pitching lineups--comparable to what you'd see in the AL East--but they are few and far between. I'll take the AL East starting rotation top to bottom as well as the AL East lineup top to bottom over the NL Central's rotation and lineup respectively and I don't think you'd find anyone who disagrees. again, this is getting way OT anyway. Bedard's an injury risk, but as I said earlier, so was Harden. The added injury risk with Bedard is outweighed by the marginal difference a Doug Davis would make or the farm system-decimation that would result from any Halladay trade. That's why Bedard makes the most sense.

Very misleading when you look at all of baseball - why do you think only 1 NL team is in the top 5 for HR's, Runs scored, SLG and AVG? The DH might just have a little something to do with that. Even if we ignore that - the O's are still average in all of baseball - they only rank in the top 1/3rd in one category: 13th in runs 15th in HR's 7th in AVG 14th in SLG I firmly understand that Crew, but I also understand that the quality of starting pitching they face day in and day out is far superior to what the Brewers face in the NL…even the NL Central. End of the day, this shouldn't be a discussion about the O's offense b/c Bedard isn't going to be traded b/c of his performance against the Orioles. He's been very good all year, despite his recent DL stint, of which he appears fully recovered from. He's far better than the other potential starters bandied about (Davis, Washburn etc.) and wouldn't cost nearly the price of Halladay. I don't think the Brewers will trade for him until after they see another start, but if they do deal for him, it's not going to be at the July 31st deadline.

My problem is not w/ calling the O's offense unspectacular, it's diminishing Bedard's performance b/c he played "the Orioles," a team whose offense is in the top half of baseball in all of the more important offensive categories AND is behind only a handful of National League clubs (3-4). That would suggest that if Bedard were pretty darn good against the Orioles, he'd be pretty darn good against the bottom 15 teams in those same offensive categories (which are dominated by NL clubs). So my point is not to laud the O's offense, but not to minimize Bedard's performance. If you're looking for a big arm w/out having to give up Gamel or Escobar, he's the best one out there (hell, the only one). Sure he comes with some risk (injuries), but I think it's very similar to the Harden situation last year, and certainly worth doing if the Brewers have any intention of competing this year. Otherwise, they might as well sink/swim with what they've got and look to unload Hart and Hardy for a run next year.

I said top 5 NL. (go back and re-read) If that lineup is in the NL, it's a top 5 offense; there are only 3 NL teams (Colorado, Philly, LAD) ahead of them in Runs scored and only 4 ahead in OPS and OBP (add Milwaukee to that list). And that's w/ numbers going up against the best division of pitchers in baseball in the AL East (NY, Tor, Boston, Tampa). There's no doubt that offense is top 5 if it's in the NL...so I can't see how you can minimize Bedard's start against "the Orioles."

then we'll jut have to agree to disagree. I think if that offense is in the NL, it's probably a top 5 offense. Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Roberts, Wieters, Huff, Scott...actually, that's easy top 5 NL right there. And obviously that's all that would matter if Bedard came over. sargennm, I'm perfectly chill. Just don't think it was a fair assessment of their offense or much of a justification to minimize Bedard's performance.