BrewerProspectus

so b/c they're "below average" at 3 of nine positions (DH) they're a poor offense, or one that should diminish Bedard's outing? Christ, what are your thoughts on the Brewers then....? If you don't think the Orioles have good hitters, just look at what happened after Bedard left. Anyway, this is neither here nor there. He's got another start before the AS break where he'll go over 100 pitchers assuming he's not getting rocked. That should be enough to convince the Brewers to make a move for him, provided that the Brewers don't perform so poorly before then that management questions whether they have an offense to get to the playoffs in the first place.

Everyone and their mother realizes that the Mariners aren't really "in the hunt" despite what their record indicates. They've got an awful farm system that needs to be re-tooled, have already lost Beltre for the year, and know that the Angels have their best ball in front of them (as they usually do in the second half). Couple that with the Rangers being buyers and Jack Z knows full well that his team is a paper tiger in the AL West right now. It's very similar to the Harden situation last year, where most thought Billy Beane would string teams along until the deadline to deal the oft-injured Harden...but then he pulled the trigger immediately, fearing a possible subsequent DL stint that would greatly diminish his value. If Bedard were to go on the DL at any point again in the next couple weeks, or hell, just miss a start, he becomes essentially untradeable. So Jack Z has to weigh the risk of injury in waiting to deal Bedard with the added value he may get by waiting. Also, as we all know he knows the Brewers farm system very well--if he waits, perhaps the Brewers fall out of contention and decide to be sellers. Obviously there's a lot less risk in acquiring the players he knows very well than there is in those that he doesn't. So, that's another risk he'd have to weigh by waiting. For the Brewers, the deal is obvious; yes, he's coming off the DL, but he appears OK. Similar to the Cubs last year w/ Harden, there's an added risk w/ Bedard, but it's the best one out there. There Brewers cannot afford to trade for Halladay and give up Escobar/Gamel, b/c those are the players they need to afford an elite pitcher in the first place (don't think for a second the Brewers can pay Hardy at short, Hart in right, and Halladay on the mound on top of needing to sign a CF, C and another Closer next year). Halladay doesn't make sense b/c you cannot give up the prospects you'd need to afford him in the first place. If the Brewers can make an offer w/ Hardy and Parra as the "centerpieces" w/ more top tier lower prospects, then fine-do it. But that's not happening. The Brewers should strike for Bedard now that the rest of the world is more concerned with Halladay, particularly given the relationship w/ Jack Z, a Harden-like offer should be enough (even less considering Bedard's a FA after this year).

I'd be surprised if Bedard weren't a Brewer by the All Star Game if the Brewers were to make a move this year. He makes far more sense than Halladay.

The Brewers will not have to give up Escobar or Gamel or hell, even Parra, for Bedard. He's nowhere near the pitcher that CC was last year and both of those prospects are at least on par with LaPorta....and neither are viewed as "available" (or even as disposable) as LaPorta was. Escobar's not going anywhere. Bedard will likely command a package surrounding Jeffress; while Bedard's another "rental player," that would probably be palatable in terms of the long-term impact of sacrificing prospects for another 1/2 season rental. Jeffress is years from contributing at the MLB level, so the two picks we'd get from Bedard's FA departure may not be much more delayed in reaching the majors (particularly if the Brewers were to draft an Arnette type). IF the Brewers can land Lee with a Jeffress/Parra/Salome type package w/out having to sacrifice top tier major-league ready prospects (i.e. Gamel/Escobar), I'd do that in a heartbeat; but I'm not sure the Indians would take anything less than Escobar/Gamel. Bedard is probably the highest impact and least expensive option of all the available top tier pitchers. The difference in the packages the Brewers would have to offer to land Lee vs. that of Bedard is likely to be too much to offset the preference for non-rental player.