I'm not going to disagree about some of the bad approaches at the plate. However, this line of thinking has always bothered me. When people say, "If this then it would have been this..." it indicates that they believe that the next action would be exactly the same even though the situation would have been different. This is simply not the case. Each pitch is a new event in a new situation so you never know what the pitcher would have done if the count were different before that pitch. This argument is used all the time in sports for various situations and it just really bothers me... not trying to take it out on you specifically! You are taking it out on me specifically, but it's somewhat deserved. No, you're right, maybe he would have guided the ball over the plate on the next pitch or maybe he wouldn't have. I don't think that events are entirely independent though. If there have been a string of pitches where he's had control issues then it increases the likelihood it would have happened again. Regardless, you take all the way 2-0 in that situation, especially if you're Jonathan Lucroy. I think we agree that the approach is the problem, but to say that we know the results of the at bat after the count would have been 3-0 is the problem. I would not argue that it's statistically likely he walks there but to say, if he would've taken he would've walked is where I don't agree. And you're completely right in saying that not all events are independent, that actually is why my logic makes even more sense. A 3-0 pitch is completely different than a 2-1 pitch and that's what it's not predictable. If the events were truly 100% independent, the count would never matter, nor would the score. It's way more prevalent in football, where fans may say something like, "If we would've scored a TD there, we would've won the game," when there is still time left... no, you would've had the lead and then who knows what the other team would have done now that they are trailing! And finally, I did attack your statement and sorry for making it feel personal. It truly wasn't! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif