Thundercat32

The only thing I know for sure is that you're not an employee in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. There's a reason why they sign the catchers that they do, why they bring in the relievers they do. There's a reason to everything they do. The Brewers' front office is like watching an intoxicated noob at the poker table. Nothing they do is intentional or coordinated with their previous decisions, and in the same hand; it's all reactionary... just call check/call, check/call, check/call... that's the Attanasio way. That's nice, but it did not address the point I made. How many teams were offering the Brewers a couple of top shelf prospects for Lucroy? I don't know, I'm not Buster Olney. How much do you know about defensive catching metrics?

How exactly Attanasio been a "cheap skate"? Long term contracts have been given to Lucroy and Braun. We have signed fairly high dollar free agents like Aramis Ramirez, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse in recent years. We'll never be the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers, but the team's payroll is competitive. He could of just signed Nelson Cruz to a one year deal for $8 mil and eclipsed the value any of those 3 players have had... You get awfully excited for guys like Aramis Ramirez, Matt Garza, and Kyle Lohse... Who's your dream girl? A late 30s, bleach blonde, trailer queen with a pronounced fupa & 4 kids?... Who exactly was competing for those 3's services??? Each one of those players settled coming to Milwaukee. Attanasio didn't go out & win their FA bidding war. It was probably Milwaukee or Japan for Lohse... I'm exaggerating here, but not by much.

The only thing I know for sure is that you're not an employee in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. There's a reason why they sign the catchers that they do, why they bring in the relievers they do. There's a reason to everything they do. The Brewers' front office is like watching an intoxicated noob at the poker table. Nothing they do is intentional or coordinated with their previous decisions, and in the same hand; it's all reactionary... just call check/call, check/call, check/call... that's the Attanasio way.

It's obviously not true. 2014 leader was Starling Marte at .373. Chris Johnson, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, Allen Craig and Mike Napoli were all above .363 in 2013. There are 10 players above .363 this year. career babip. For an entire career. Post 1900. Rogers Hornsby .365 career babip http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1006030&position=2B Flame me all you want, but don't tell me I'm not a knowledgeable baseball fan. Like I said, when I quote a statistic, I know [expletive deleted by moderator] I'm talking about.

Dave Cameron was the source. He mentioned it in a presentation at the 2013 Sabre Seminar in Boston. I was recalling it from memory, but the actual babip # is .365 and the player is Rogers Hornsby. [Expletive deleted by moderator], get off of Mitch Haniger already. As I stated in a previous post, it wouldn't matter if the Brewers gave up the Chorizo sausage & a roll of pennies for Parra. A) Parra is dog excrement at the plate and did not help the Brewers make the playoffs. All he did was, in theory, push us down a slot or two in this year's draft. We landed Trenton Clark, so it didn't hurt us in actuality, but it was a bad strategic move... Or maybe you're the type of fan who looks at a manager when he pulls the starter in the 7th inning with 1 out and runners on 1st & 2nd and you wait to see whether the reliever gets out of the inning unscathed or not, and whether we win the game or not, before you decide whether pulling the starter was the right move or not. Is that how you think? Do you need to see the results first before you can make an evaluation?

So, are you a cherry-picker when you go to the supermarket to buy fruit, as well, or is it just when you're reviewing my posts?

If Lucroy is notching an extra four wins a season - and he makes the pitching staff better, I'm inclined to fork over the cash to keep him. Furthermore, with the infusion of young pitching into the AA/AAA levels of the minors, and the young rotation the Brewers currently have - maybe spending the cash to keep Lucroy is a good investment. I think that Lucroy is probably shaving about .25 points of ERA off the Brewers pitchers... which could entice another team to overpay for a pitcher or two. I agree. In an ideal world Attanasio wouldn't be such a cheapskate. If you look at how fortunate we were with Carlos Gomez, a lottery ticket that cashed in, and what Lucroy blossomed into, I mean, it's exactly what you would hope a young group of prospects would become. You would hope for better than what we've gotten from Segura & you'd hope for better pitching prospects... Although, Odorizzi's been pretty nice, and all you had to do there was just keep him (which I'm going to get flamed for saying that because how could you not deal for Greinke with the 2011 team?)... Anyways, where the Brewers are at now, you're forced to play for 2018 & beyond. You kind of have to suspend belief that Attanasio will ever spend any money to retain productive players too.

Ironic these two are facing off, given that the Rangers traded for Dempster & Garza back in 2012 & those deals included Kyle Hendricks. Rangers missed the playoffs that year & probably wish they had Hendricks back.

Braun use to post a recent years average wRC+ in the 170s vs LHP 2-3 years ago. Now that average is in the 140s. His wRC+ average vs RHP use to be in the 130s, now it's in the 110s. I think we all know why he's declined. Moving him to 1b, will put him as a league average bat. I'm not saying that they shouldn't move him to 1b; he'd still be an upgrade over what we have there now; I'm just highlighting how far he's fallen off from the 2011 MVP we all knew & loved.

Those who think I've irrationally overreacted. This ^ is the post that sent me over the edge. It's a selective, ridiculous citing of specific moves (putting words in my mouth) and ignoring my overall point. My overall point: There is no discernible direction for this organization. I think Melvin is handicapped by Attanasio's year-to-year, maybe even month-to-month, reactionary vision for the franchise. There is no organizational philosophy (outside of maybe emphasizing groundball pitchers and advocating shifts) like the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, or a handful of other teams have. The Brewers are in the worst possible position they can be in--they're indecisive. Edit: Actually (or technically), they may be decisive. Attanasio's apparent decision looks to be contend every year. They appear to be scared to swing for the fences because Attanasio is deathly afraid of what happens when they swing & miss and are terrible, which is ironic because that's what they've backed into this year. At least when you swing & miss, you wind up with a top of the draft pick & hope on the horizon. Until they moved Gomez, there wasn't a lot of hope on the horizon. Personally, I wanna play for the World Series. Boom or bust. I'm never going to be an advocate of just trying to stay competitive. Maybe that makes the most financial sense, and it's easy to take a boom or bust approach when you're not the one signing the checks. That said, if there was an actual plan, one that was adhered to, I think the fanbase would support the team. But, when you so obviously take a cheapskate approach, like they did during the 2013 off-season when they hoped they'd sign a starter below market value & wound up paying for Lohse, fans can't support that. Which then becomes a vicious cycle where Attanasio can turn around and say he can't spend on this team because the fans don't support it. Which might be the case because unless the Brewers are in the playoffs does anyone give them a second thought past "Who's the Packers' nickel DB?" (I'm seriously asking. I don't know what the typical Wisconsin sports fan pays attention to... like is anyone taking notice of what the Bucks are doing?)... The current approach is still very poor. Even under Attanasio's financial restrictions, they could be taking an approach more likely to land this team in the post-season with starting pitching that would allow them to contend for a title.

Ranking the best courses of action: 1) dealing both Gomez and Lucroy for prospects 2) keeping both Gomez and Lucroy to contend 3) dealing either Gomez or Lucroy and keeping the other Granted, they can still deal Lucroy in the winter or at next year's trade deadline. That said, you'd like to take a haul of young prospects all at the same time, so they have the best chance of having young prospects hit the majors at the same time. Especially when the Brewers basically let everyone walk after their arbitration eligible years are over. Fans having an issue with the Brewers' current course of option #3 is completely understandable and should not cause you a headache, in my opinion.

For those advocating last year as a buy year... I think you're overlooking the tendencies in post-season baseball, which is why teams pay exuberant prices for front-of-the-line starters. Those are the critical pieces that you have to have to succeed in the post-season. We all know that. The Brewers had the offense to compete last year (minus a quality left-handed bat), but offenses are regularly shut down in the post-season. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but teams runs per game averages drop noticeably in the post-season. So, the question becomes, "Did the Brewers have the top-of-the-rotation starters & back-of-the-bullpen relievers that they needed to seriously contend for the World Series last year?" Personally, I don't think so. Which is why I despise trading a prospect and depleting the farm system. Even, if everyone is right, and I'm wrong, and Mitch Haniger never plays an inning in the majors, all adding Gerardo Parra did was knock the Brewers down a couple spots in this year's MLB draft, which hurts the farm system... Now, thankfully for us, Parra hit his ceiling this year (which as I indicated in a previous post, has been significantly aided by a sky high babip of .372 & over a 50% increase in his hr-fb rate), and we made out with a significant pitching prospect. However, that's results-orientated; there's no way you'll be able to convince me that the Brewers' thought they were flipping Mitch Haniger for a pitching prospect at the time of that trade. Not to mention, they included Banda in that deal & he's thought of as a potential back-of-the-rotation arm. It's certainly possible that Banda has a better career than Davies. No matter, how that plays out; the Brewers did not have the pitching to compete in the playoffs last year, so do NOT touch the farm system. That's been my main point throughout this thread.

Cole Hamels had a hamstring strain that sidelined him for a week in June; then he returned in late June to post a 7.46 ERA & 1.78 WHIP over 25.1 ip (twice not making it out of the 3rd inning). Teams were lining up to trade for him with proposals that included several top-shelf prospects. And that was before his no-hitter. In addition, Hamels has had his issues since the start of the 2014 season, so I think teams who are trying to compete in the post-season are willing to overpay for a player they perceive will put them over the edge, regardless of red flags. Not to mention, Hamels has an abortion of a contract at $23.5 mil per year. I mean, Texas took him on & it might mean saying good bye to Yu Darvish, which is so, so bad if it plays out that way. I mean, they have to deal Shin Soo-Choo or Elvis Andrus to clear the room for a Darvish extension, and who's going to take on either one of those guys with their contracts? Point being, don't discount the possibility of teams doing something stupid. But, also Lucroy having a bad year is a results-orientated, offense-only look at his season. His home run to fly ball rate is the lowest it's been since his rookie year of 2010. It's at 4.8%, which is abnormally low for a hitter with a career .428 SLG playing half of his games at Miller Park. His babip this season is 28 points below his career average. His walk rate is equivalent to his career average and his k rate is 1.3% lower than his career average. It's a down year for Lucroy, but not a bad year. And health has played a factor too. If teams were willing to overlook Hamels' struggles in late June & July, then there's no reason to think they wouldn't be willing to overlook Lucroy's modest struggles, which I think they probably should. Citing an article from April of this year, Lucroy has the most "stolen" strikes in MLB over the past 5 seasons. It's over 1,000, which Baseball Prospectus equates to 18 wins. Teams are willing to pay a hefty price for 3.6 extra wins per season; particularly, for a player who only costs $4 mil next season. Citing a couple of stats you quickly glanced at off of Lucroy's ESPN profile page isn't an accurate method to assess his value in the trade market. Additionally, the other catchers in baseball who excel at pitch framing have OPS in the 500s. Lucroy's a god send. His return on the open market would be/should be substantial.

No, they should do whatever you think they should do. [Expletive deleted by moderator] I'm done with this thread. The Brewers' front office is [expletive deleted by moderator] outstanding! GoPackGo

This article paints a different picture of what the Vanderbilt faithful thought Everett's chances of honoring his commitment were: http://www.anchorofgold.com/2015/6/12/8774835/donny-everett-turned-down-2-5-million-to-attend-vanderbilt What? Teams were asking him before the draft if they offered him $2.5 million would he sign and he said no. So it was pretty obvious that he was going to go to college to pretty much everybody. That article doesn't say whatever you think it says. "When I originally speculated odds on him suiting up in the black and gold would fall somewhere between Slim and None... Donny Baseball's commitment to Vandy was a lot more firm than we all thought..." Just saying it sounds like people at Vandy weren't as sure as everyone else was.

It's really sad that the expectation in Milwaukee is the moment a guy exceeds his arbitration years, he's gone. It's so sad. Apparently, Lucroy proposed a long-term deal to the club in the off-season, a deal he said that would of made him a career Brewer, and they told him "No, thanks. Not at this time."

They need to find better infielders than Segura/Gennett/Lind to make it an effective strategy.

This article paints a different picture of what the Vanderbilt faithful thought Everett's chances of honoring his commitment were: http://www.anchorofgold.com/2015/6/12/8774835/donny-everett-turned-down-2-5-million-to-attend-vanderbilt http://i.imgur.com/xZEBBLp.gif How do you feel about the Texas Rangers trading Tomas Telis and Cody Ege to Miami for Sam Dyson?

tmwiese55, You're busy writing your own narrative here, so I guess, who am I to disagree? I doubt until I posted that trading Haniger last year was a mistake that you would of characterized him as having "little" chance to make the bigs. You probably would of just said he'll be a serviceable 4th OF'er, but now that you disagree with me, you have to over-exaggerate your position. Your entire post is filled with over-exaggeration. It's towards the end of the day, and I don't have the energy to go back & refute all of it, anymore. We'll just agree to disagree on this one.

This article paints a different picture of what the Vanderbilt faithful thought Everett's chances of honoring his commitment were: http://www.anchorofgold.com/2015/6/12/8774835/donny-everett-turned-down-2-5-million-to-attend-vanderbilt

By the way, I haven't mentioned him much, yet, but wouldn't the Yankees have some interest in Jean Segura? I know, he's not very good, but he's better than Gregorius and Ryan, plus he offers an upgrade to the RHB platoon opposite Gregorius, if they wanted to go that route. I doubt we'd get much in return. Not much more than a low A-ball prospect with upside (sad, when you think about Segura being the cornerpiece of the Greinke deal), but we have Arcia on the way up, why not clear the path now? I guess, it's a move that can be made in the offseason or at next year's trade deadline, but I wouldn't of minded making it now. The Yankees are contending this year. Who knows were they'll be at next year's trade deadline.

trwi7, All valid points. When I brought up the Lohse signing, originally, it was to highlight the indecision the front office has shown. Though, the Lohse signing is probably a product of Attanasio's tight purse-strings than Melvin's choice of an ideal starting pitching fit for the rotation. Still, if you remember that 2013 FA period, the Brewers let one quality starter after another go off the market, until Kyle Lohse was the only SP left. They waited so long to sign him that he missed spring training all together, and he didn't even make his Brewers' debut until a week into the season. And they overpaid $11 mil a year for a guy that's a back end of the rotation starter on a contender. Every point you made to why offering Everett stupid money to sign and how that messes up the rest of your draft, it's still preferable to being indecisive and panic signing Lohse, in my opinion. That was what I was trying to say. Almost like, "Hey, if you're going to screw the pooch, there's better ways to do it... ways that at least have some upside to them."

Wouldn't the Mets be the ideal trade partner for Lucroy? Who else needs a catcher that's a contender? Pirates, maybe... Diamondbacks... Angels... The choices are fairly limited, and I prefer the idea of landing say Wheeler & Conforto for Lucroy. I know that's a steep price for the Mets to pay, but teams that understand analytics, and the Mets are towards the top of that list, realize the extra value Lucroy's pitch framing offers. I mean, that Mets' rotation coupled with Lucroy's catching. Jesus! That doesn't even seem fair. I'm with you, though. I really want to see a young, dominant, front of the line pitching prospect added. Otherwise, we're on another collision course for 2011. Stacked offense, but rip apart the farm to add a starter on a 1-2 year rental. No thanks.

Point Beer is Best, That's a really excellent point, and I had forgotten that. I remember it being discussed last year, when everyone was so pumped that we got Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison all signed with enough remaining to sign the rest of our draftees. That said, mlb.com had Everett rated as the 23rd best overall prospect from this year's draft (not some 29th rounder). As long as his offer didn't prohibit the Brewers from signing Trenton Clark (#12 on that list), then I don't care if the only 2 guys they were able to sign from this year's draft were Clark & Everett. I think you could offer Everett more than we did & still land Clark & Ponce, and then I'm doing fist pumps. So, yes there's limitations, but no, they could of offered Everett more. And that strategy could totally blow up in your face. The most volatile type of player to take in a draft is a high school pitcher. But, signing Kyle Lohse types to $11 mil/per year deals never lands you a front of the rotation line starter and worse than that it only causes you to drop out of a top 5 selection when you do miss the playoffs. If you spend your money on a high school arm that's a bust, then fine, you're right back at the top of the draft order the next year. Eventually, you're going to land a franchise changing player, if not a couple. I know you know that. I'm just explaining my stance in greater detail.

[ ] Judging a player solely on their age to competition level and 174 plate appearances at that level is an accurate way to project future success.