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Eye Black

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Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    I keep seeing references to MLB setting the prices but I don’t understand how that works. The Brewers (or MLB?) are clearly using dynamic pricing. Yesterday the Brewers were selling tickets in 124 for $2,600 each. Today those exact same seats were now $3,852. Regarding the Cleveland tickets he got them through SeatGeek which is the official ticket reseller of MLB and basically the next best thing to getting tickets from an MLB ticket office.
  2. Eye Black
    My buddy pulled the trigger on potential WS Game 5 tickets in Cleveland this morning after striking out in the presale. I feel like if the Brewers and Guardians both win today he won’t be the only one making that leap. Those tickets ended up being less than half the cost of comparable tickets for a home game.
  3. Eye Black
    I used this morning’s code to grab Game 6 WS tickets. That’s easily the most I’ve ever spent on tickets to a single sporting event, but if it gets to that point the stakes will be so high that I don’t think I’ll regret it. I did a pros and cons when deciding between Games 1 and 6 (both on Friday’s). Game 1 would be guaranteed, would feature the Miz on the mound, and be the first World Series game in Miller Park/AmFam history. Game 6 on the other hand isn’t a guarantee but has a chance to be for a World Championship. I also justified it as if it doesn’t happen I’ll either be ecstatic anyway that the Brewers won the WS or happy to get my money back if they got beat before then.
  4. Eye Black
    Ashby’s little head shake after striking out Freeman sent me 😆
  5. Eye Black
    Time to manufacture a run now.
  6. Eye Black
    Contreras has been an absolute beast with the bat this Postseason. ABS challenges on the other hand, not so much.
  7. Eye Black
    The one downside of an otherwise fantastic turn of events.
  8. Eye Black
    From a 2025 NLCS game two complete game to a 2026 NLCS game two shortest start of his career. The Postseason comes at you fast!
  9. Eye Black
    Sort of continues the Postseason trend where uncharacteristic miscues cost them but simultaneously could’ve also been so much worse.
  10. Eye Black
    I had such PTSD from facing Yamamoto in last year’s NLCS that I’m just ecstatic he had to throw 20+ pitches out of the gate.
  11. Eye Black
    It’s been a minute (or a few years), how’s everyone doing?!
  12. Eye Black
    Thanks for sharing this, and I agree that you’d like to see the contact rate a little higher. Luckily, a low contact rate alone isn’t guaranteed to be a death knell, and there are a few outliers in terms of players that can produce big time value with a lower contact rate. One notable example that comes to mind is Fernando Tatis Jr. who had an even worse 67.2% contact rate during his monster 2021 season which included 42 home runs. One plate discipline stat that’s slightly more favorable to William Contreras is swinging strike rate. If you do the same query of 350 plate appearances from last season, the younger Contreras ranked 40 spots from the bottom in SwStr% at 14.0%. Some notable names he finished better than included Nick Castellanos (17.0%), Salvador Perez (16.9%), Jeremy Peña (15.7%), Luis Robert (15.2%), Nelson Cruz (15.0%), Bryce Harper (14.8%), Byron Buxton (14.6%), Julio Rodriguez (14.4%), Rafael Devers (14.2%). One spot better than Contreras was Dansby Swanson (13.9%) who was in the midst of having a career season offensively. William even finished ahead of brother Wilson (14.4%) in swinging strike rate. Plate discipline is obviously a crucial part of the equation, but as long as he’s barreling the ball and doing damage when he is making contact I think he’ll end up proving to be a valuable offensive threat.
  13. Eye Black
    The Baseball America trade reaction podcast is a great listen, and covers a lot of angles of the transaction. It’s overwhelmingly positive in favor of the Brewers. Was also listening to a Braves-centric podcast, Battery Power, and they are very high on Contreras. They maybe summed it up best of all, “the Brewers should feel like this is Christmas morning.”
  14. Eye Black
    I agree that Ruiz’s industry evaluations are probably a bit all over the place. I think it’s fair to assume the Brewers were another team that valued him more highly than the median when they acquired him back in July. I do think there are certain teams that place a high value on having a speedy centerfielder with good range. Here is A’s GM David Forst discussing Esteury Ruiz’s future in centerfielder: "I think he has the ability to play there every day in the big leagues between the speed and the range -- I think he has a chance to be really good there." He also confirmed that he expects Ruiz to start the season with the major league club.
  15. Eye Black
    Contreras has played just five career games against the Brewers (four of them at AmFamField), and in those 21 plate appearances he has a line of .333 BA / .524 OBP / 1.391 OPS. Meaningless small sample, but still a little awesome as well.
  16. Eye Black
    I’m just stunned the Brewers didn’t give up more here. Not another outfielder, not a prospect arm, not a competitive balance pick… just wow.
  17. Eye Black
    Except for the Cubs! Instead they’re now surrounded by Contreras brothers.
  18. Eye Black
    I am not among the highest on Sal Frelick, but I actually think his skill set pairs very well with a style of play that’s going to be coveted in MLB over the next decade. I am hopeful the recent rules changes increase the value and impact of players like Frelick. If he can get on base and cause havoc from there he will be an asset to the top of the Brewers lineup.
  19. Eye Black
    I’ve been intrigued by Abraham Toro for awhile, a switch hitter with a low strikeout rate that put up very impressive wRC+ numbers throughout his minor league career. For whatever reason things haven’t clicked yet in the majors, but he turns 26 years old next month which is often the age MLB hitters take a step forward. Also, it’s worth remembering that switch hitters take longer to adjust and develop at the highest level since they’re dividing plate opportunities across two different swings. Add the fact that he can fill the utility role, and it makes sense why he would be a Brewers target.
  20. Eye Black
    Good catch, I’ll update the list.
  21. Eye Black
    Among position players that could reasonably see time in Milwaukee next season below are the top 2022 stolen base totals/percentages (combined stats across both MiLB and MLB). With the new rule changes geared towards increasing stolen bases I would expect these numbers to improve a bit in 2023. 2022 Stolen Base Percentages (MLB & MiLB stats combined) Garrett Mitchell (SB: 25 / CS: 1): 96% Brice Turang (SB: 34 / CS: 2): 95% Joey Wiemer (SB: 31 / CS: 3): 91% Blake Perkins (SB: 21 / CS: 2): 91% Christian Yelich (SB: 19 / CS: 3): 86% Esteury Ruiz (SB: 86 / CS: 16): 84% Sal Frelick (SB: 24 / CS: 8): 80% Willy Adames (SB: 8 / CS: 3): 73%
  22. Eye Black
    I think there is a chance the Brewers are going to be shifting gears towards a greater emphasis on contact and speed in 2023. With the new rule changes (shift restrictions, larger bases, and limit on pickoff moves) I think there’s a reasonable argument to be made that balls in play and speed on the base paths could be an exploitable advantage as baseball adjusts to these new rules tweaks. Speed is an important element to the overall profiles of many of the Brewers younger players such as Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Esteury Ruiz, and Brice Turang. Even the outfielder they picked up today, 26-year old Blake Perkins, reportedly has 60 grade speed according to scouting reports. The Brewers were tied for 10th overall in MLB in stolen bases per game last season. We’ll have to see how the remainder of the offseason plays out, but I think there’s a decent possibility the Brewers could be much more aggressive in putting pressure on opposing pitchers with their ability to run and steal.
  23. Eye Black
    FanGraphs Scouting Reports on all three pitchers from last offseason:
  24. Eye Black
    Baseball America Scouting Report for Janson Junk (was ranked as #14 prospect in Angels system): FanGraphs article, titled “High Sliders: Junk or Genius” on Janson Junk throwing high sliders this year: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/high-sliders-junk-or-genius/
  25. Eye Black
    Backend starter Eric Lauer: “It’s kind of time to put up or shut up.” GM Matt Arnold on newly acquired pitcher Janson Junk: “We believe that he has a chance to compete for a spot in our rotation.”
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