Playing Catch
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Everything posted by Playing Catch
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I think there's an interesting topic here. I think I've been conditioned during the 3TO era to believe that K-rate is the most important pitching stat, and that bigger is always better, like hitting more HRs is almost always better. We celebrate, and rightly so, the dominance of the "immaculate inning," but conversely constantly worry about pitch counts. Perhaps, if our defense continues to be as good as we think it is, having a lower K-rate will allow our best pitchers to rack up what I believe is the most overlooked counting stat for pitchers... Innings Pitched. Or as Counsell likes to say, "getting outs". -
Highlighted above, and evident with the eye-test, has been the improvement of the defense. The Brewers might be better at every position sans the holdover starters. Turang and Wiemer look like gold glovers. That kind of defensive impact wins games.
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- christian yelich
- willy adames
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So fun to watch!
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I'll predict Wiemer makes OD roster. Many of us were surprised when Mitchell came up last year, even though he was the chronological choice. Wiemer, too, is chronologically, the choice ahead of Frelick. In addition, he is the better defender, bats from the right side, offers more power, and is the baserunning equal. We keep talking about what GMs do to manipulate service time, and maximize value, but we rarely give credence to the idea that GMs are usually judged by how effectively they help the team win. Wiemer has yet to experience failure whilst healthy (or one could reasonably say so). Other than prospect lists, why wouldn't bullish Brewers fans like ourselves not consider him to not only be a superior prospect, but also the best current starting RFer in the organization?
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I didn't realize this. I had it in my head that Naquin was a good OFer, defensively. If it's true that he's bad, I too, do not care to have Naquin on the roster.
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- tyrone taylor
- brice turang
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Good defense, good wheels, lefty stick, ostensibly strong "makeup". He'll play for a long time in MLB. I just don't see him ever being league average. *ducks*
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I have to think that signing four Nicaraguans is all about trying to establish relationships there, in order to have a leg-up in the future.
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I was encouraged, too, by the comment that he "hit balls hard in every quadrant of the zone". He also has good walk rates. But yeah, the strikeout rates are frightening.
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- alexander cornielle
- janson junk
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What I was positing, is that it's possible that agents/players WANT to go to arbitration. Either so that they get their number, or so that they can go to the media the next day to complain about the system, and make vague references badmouthing the system/ownership/MLB. I'm not claiming this IS what happened, just that I think this is a method by which the union creates sympathy with fans over their plight. It is especially effective when you are all but guaranteed to hit a record-breaking jackpot in free agency, as it very likely gets some national attention.
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As I mentioned in another thread, it makes one appreciate the NBA's CBA/Global Marketing, which allows for smaller markets to compete with the big markets. Regarding Burnes, we're only going to get his side of the story. While I think it's unlikely, it's possible Burnes wasn't willing to sign for either arbitration number. It's possible that was simply what he and his agent thought they could win in the case. Perhaps they wanted a big deal and the Brewers countered with a deal commensurate with what arbitration figures would be. But we won't find out the details.
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Glad to be looking forward to spring! 1- I forgot about the balanced schedule. That will hopefully make the boring 3TO baseball a little less so, with some fresher opponents, but also make it more difficult for the Central divisions to earn wild cards. 2- Success is finishing ahead of the Cards and the Cubs.
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I love the idea of Houser to the pen. I don't understand advanced pitching metrics well enough to know, but it seems that a ground ball pitcher that can also strike guys out is a real benefit. He can come in with the bases jammed and nobody out, and you can still hope to prevent any runs. In addition, his 2019 season (18 starts, 35 appearances, 111 IP) resulted in very good K-rates, and his lowest walk-rates. He's a great guy to be the swingman. Also a great candidate to piggy-back with Ashby being that they are RH/LH and both look better in shorter stints. I guess all pitchers do.
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Burnes in on pace to sign the largest contract for a pitcher in the history of the game (simply because salaries keep rising, not because he's some kind of unicorn). I don't see him signing an extension. I think if the Brewers want to keep him long term, they should build up a lot of good will in the next couple of years, and then offer him that megadeal in free agency. Few of us here believe this will happen, or believe that it should happen. For a team that is ostensibly trying to compete every year, I don't see the Brewers getting fair value back in a trade next off-season (because 1 season of Cy Young is extremely valuable to a team trying to win). I also don't believe they will trade him at the deadline (barring having an uncompetitive record, or injury issues). So I guess I'm in the camp that says the Brewers will have benefited from having one of the best starters in baseball during his prime, and for that I am thankful. It's important to note that very good, big market teams also lose out on signing stars to extensions or out-bidding teams in free agency sometimes.
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Burnes in on pace to sign the largest contract for a pitcher in the history of the game (simply because salaries keep rising, not because he's some kind of unicorn). I don't see him signing an extension. I think if the Brewers want to keep him long term, they should build up a lot of good will in the next couple of years, and then offer him that megadeal in free agency. Few of us here believe this will happen, or believe that it should happen. For a team that is ostensibly trying to compete every year, I don't see the Brewers getting fair value back in a trade next off-season (because 1 season of Cy Young is extremely valuable to a team trying to win). I also don't believe they will trade him at the deadline (barring having an uncompetitive record, or injury issues). So I guess I'm in the camp that says the Brewers will have benefited from having one of the best starters in baseball during his prime, and for that I am thankful. It's important to note that very good, big market teams also lose out on signing stars to extensions or out-bidding teams in free agency sometimes.
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I really hope they both play a lot. Even if they just end up being replacement level players. If they are able to improve just a smidge in a couple areas, they will become 50-grade players. It's been a long time since the Brewers have developed a 50-grade player. Trent Grisham maybe? I'm not sure he's better than a 45. In addition, I really want to see those left-handed speedsters wreaking havoc on the pitchers/IFers. Bunts, Butcher-boys, fielding errors, balks, stolen bases, hustle doubles, triples... That's fun.
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In another universe, Hiura would've been drafted by a bad team; he'd have been allowed to start everyday at 1B/DH, and been a hot commodity at the trade deadline for a contending team needing a stick. I love him, but the gaping holes in his player profile prevent me from being able to laud his inclusion in an everyday lineup for a contender. I also feel like he's the baseball equivalent of a "volume scorer" in basketball... he needs regular ABs to prove his worth.
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Looking through that list, it seems to me the Brewers have probably done as well as any other team in the league. The prospects in that list with the highest draft capital were Lucroy, Coulter (whom most teams NEVER considered to be a catcher), and Feliciano. It's like saying the Brewers have "failed" to develop first basemen, because Fielder was the only one to pan out. I tend to agree that, "there's no such thing as a catching prospect."
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Yep. For all of the hand-wringing about their offense, the reality is that the team was constructed to pitch at an elite level, and play good defense. The pitching was merely "good," and the defense wasn't. If the pitching staff as a whole, improve, as I would predict, they could get right back to the 90+ win mark.
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Contreras REALLY outperformed expectations in his rookie year. If I was predicting how he would hit this year, I would not predict he match last year's wRC+ of 138(!) If he DOES match those numbers, well... we may have a future HOFer on the roster. Ivan Rodriguez's age 28 season was the only one of his career that featured a higher wRC+ than Contreras's year last season. My other observation was Frelick. I'm as bullish as anyone on Frelick, but even I can't believe they are projecting a wRC+ of 111 (in limited ABs) for a true rookie. If the Brewers' internal metrics are aligned, I'd be shocked if he wasn't the Brewers' opening day, every day CFer. I do believe that the hope of gaining a draft pick for a ROY, would be enough for the Brewers to play Frelick right out of the gate.
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My question is... What if they ALL stay healthy, and ALL of them have a career year in 2023? How many games would the Brewers win?
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Yeah, it's probably just my Stockholm Syndrome after being a Brewers fan all these years, but it's really hard for me to ever feel like paying FAs market value is a good use of Brewers' budget resources, unless the existing roster is waaayy under budget. I don't see them resigning guys like Jace, Wong, Narvaez, Rogers, or even guys like Adames or Tellez. I think the only way they'd sign these players would be if it's late in the window, and the price comes back down to a number the F.O. is comfortable with (i.e. not "market-value").
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Yeah, it's probably just my Stockholm Syndrome after being a Brewers fan all these years, but it's really hard for me to ever feel like paying FAs market value is a good use of Brewers' budget resources, unless the existing roster is waaayy under budget. I don't see them resigning guys like Jace, Wong, Narvaez, Rogers, or even guys like Adames or Tellez. I think the only way they'd sign these players would be if it's late in the window, and the price comes back down to a number the F.O. is comfortable with (i.e. not "market-value").
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I just mentioned in another thread, but yeah. Just a great year on the farm. Both quality and depth. I, too, don't care about rankings (and as I've mentioned before, rankings in most contexts is flawed). Trading Kelly, I think, hurt our TOR potential, not that I'm too worried about it. Perhaps Misiorowski will change that in a hurry. I agree with everyone posting about the quality and depth of our recent classes of Venezuelans (and a couple of Dominicans). My own pet belief, too, is that power is overrated in a prospect. MLB parks are tiny. Even the "40 future power" graded Luis Urias is a 20-30 HR hitter. If guys can get clean contact with some launch angle, they will hit big league HRs. Tangential to said pet belief is that the average square-footage of big-league parks combined with a newfound belief in defense (including the Brewers choosing "middle-of the-diamond" defenders), is making it very difficult to hit singles/doubles, thus squeezing the life out of contact hitters. However, this season, MLB instituted their humidors. MAYBE the reason for the low-average, 3TO-style of baseball will change due to the humidors or other such alterations (shift rules?). I expect to see this reflected in the contracts doled out to players. I believe we will see a renaissance of the .300 hitter.
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I just mentioned in another thread, but yeah. Just a great year on the farm. Both quality and depth. I, too, don't care about rankings (and as I've mentioned before, rankings in most contexts is flawed). Trading Kelly, I think, hurt our TOR potential, not that I'm too worried about it. Perhaps Misiorowski will change that in a hurry. I agree with everyone posting about the quality and depth of our recent classes of Venezuelans (and a couple of Dominicans). My own pet belief, too, is that power is overrated in a prospect. MLB parks are tiny. Even the "40 future power" graded Luis Urias is a 20-30 HR hitter. If guys can get clean contact with some launch angle, they will hit big league HRs. Tangential to said pet belief is that the average square-footage of big-league parks combined with a newfound belief in defense (including the Brewers choosing "middle-of the-diamond" defenders), is making it very difficult to hit singles/doubles, thus squeezing the life out of contact hitters. However, this season, MLB instituted their humidors. MAYBE the reason for the low-average, 3TO-style of baseball will change due to the humidors or other such alterations (shift rules?). I expect to see this reflected in the contracts doled out to players. I believe we will see a renaissance of the .300 hitter.
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Article: What Should the Brewers do With Luis Urías?
Playing Catch replied to Kyle Ginsbach's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I really like Urias in his role. With this said, it's hard for me to not be a little disappointed that he hasn't been more with the stick. I agree that his future is that of other decent "everyday" utility players from around the league. For that reason, the FO will keep him around so long as he's reasonably affordable.
