faede

I love your counterpoints. Very well put and I can definitely understand where you are coming from. I must admit, my blueprint is probably kinda crappy. I don't even like it much and I made it! That being said, I still think we have to take a good hard look at what we have to figure out how to plug holes. Until we know what we have, it's almost impossible to plug the holes, but, I do think we have enough knowledge of what we have to say that it would be really really difficult to replace the production of Aramis Ramirez in 2013 OR 2014 if he is traded in the offseason.

I'm not sure that's the point of contention. I feel like many fans are trying to "fix" the problem by making another problem. The lineup is as solid as you are going to get for a mid-market team. In my opinion, too many people are saying.. Trade Hart and Aramis for some type of long term fix to the rotation/bullpen. There's four problems I have with that thinking. 1. It's dang hard to find Aramis/Hart (and obviously Aramis is the key for me) type players. That fact is being woefully underestimated. 2. The prospect pathway does not 1) guarantee you a good result, prospects are still unproven and 2)does not guarantee when that result will occur on the time frame we want (2014) 3. A once-in-a-generation type talent (Ryan Braun) does not happen often. It's essential to maximize the window of opportunity while he's still in his prime. 4. We're much better prepared, prospectwise, to shore up pitching then we are position.. ESPECIALLY 3rd base, which essentially has zero replacement for Aramis currently and in the not distant future. Depends what is available in the offseason and the rest of the season. But that, again, is somewhat my point. We currently have no idea what we have. Advocating all these trades is doing so without a solid understanding of what we have and don't have. If I've learned anything in management of project/people etc. To get to where you want to be, you have to know where you are at. "Know thyself". So, here's a gameplan as a rough starting point: -Assess Mark Rogers, Mike Fiers, Jim Henderson at the major league level. (shutdown Fiers and Rogers when required) -Promote and assess Wily Peralta, Hiram Burgos, Jesus Sanchez, Fausto De Los Santos and Tyler Thornberg at the major league level. -Promote and assess Khris Davis at the major league level in the same way Jean Segura is getting time (RF, platoon Aoki and Gomez in CF) -Make an attempt at a #1 starter in the offseason. Greinke would be the #1 FA target. If not in Free Agency, a "Grienke-like" trade would be ideal. -If no #1's are possible, a 2/3 type must be obtained (Edwin Jackson, Marcum, Liriano etc). -At least two solid FA Relievers (Betancourt, Belisle, Burnett, Marshall etc.) -At least two replacement relievers (Henderson, Sanchez, De Los Santos (and I'd move Estrada back to the bullpen too) etc) Just stuff off the top of my head, but, it doesn't seem that unattainable.

See, that's my biggest problem. Why is it probable that we won't contend? Baseball is so fun because the key is to "just get to the playoffs". In the playoffs, anything can happen!!! Not to mention, it's the Cardinals, Reds and even moreso, Pirates who have the juice in the farm system that's nearing the big leagues (that's not even considering the Cubs). We have 22 blown saves this year. Worst in the league. If we were even at league average we'd have 8 to 9 more wins. And that's is just looking at blown saves. Our bullpen has been epic bad. In terms of hitting, despite a massive hole at SS, a massive slump from Ricky Weeks and a fluke injury to Lucroy, we're amongst the leaders in hitting in the NL. We're 4th in team ISO and non-pitching WAR. We can even expect a bit of a bump hitting in next season if Segura works out and we stay relatively injury free. Fix the bullpen, grab one FA starting pitcher and we're right there, statistically. Here's the best news, we probably have enough money and potential pitching prospects to do just that! Why give up on 2013???

Schaefer and Green are still young and cheap. I'd prefer not to deal them unless I got blown away by an offer for them. At this point, I see the contracts of Ramirez and Hart as potential problems - I can think of better ways to spend about $36 million over the next two years. In Hart's case, if the old comp system were in place (offer arby to get comp picks), it would be a tougher call, but the new system makes it more worthwhile to move Hart in the offseason. Furthermore, if there are a lot of starters in the system, some can always be converted to the bullpen. This is frustrating. Id be interested to know how you plan to replace two .850 ops (well over that in the case of aramis) 4+ war players. If you say taylor green, schafer or gindl, im going to politely chuckle. Finding that type of consistent production is so completely underappreciated its amazing to me.

The damian magnifico box score watch is starting to get exciting. Nice to see Hiram back on track in a big way too.

Im such a fan of aramis right now. Even his defense has been stellar this year. Such a great professional having an amazing year.

2/30 is still going to water down the prospects. I think you have to eat 6mil to make it a really viable. And fair too as the 6mil he's technically getting this year is such a ridiculous steal, it's amazing (fangraphs has him valued at 15.7mil right now). To just shed a 5+WAR player would be completely unacceptable to me especially with almost no viable alternative behind. That's potentially a 7win swing as there is nobody at replacement level to take the spot. That is where we will completely disagree and I would imagine (thankfully, from my perspective), Melvin would agree with my opinion. You just don't "dump" a .850 OPS guy (he's trending toward .900 in reality) if you want to have a successful team.

I don't think your going to get much of a return in prospects if you go that route. 3/36 is a great deal for Aramis and would be a very tradable asset. 1/20 (16+4 add on) is not a great deal and would require the prospect package to watered down significantly!!

You are preaching to the choir, my friend. I agree on Hart, it's Ramirez I have a tough time swallowing.

I believe none of this even takes into account anybody drafted this year and if I am not mistaken we got 1-3 high ceiling guys. Not saying we should really count those guys before they play in the minors for us but the farm is definitely heading in the right direction. I wouldn't say overlooked just that making decisions short term based on attendance is a losing strategy. Very good point. Haniger looked decent before he got injured. Coulter is doing great (hitting) at AZL, not so much fielding. Tyrone Taylor was way better than I expected (very limited sample size) and Victor Roache is a complete unknown with uber power.

I'd totally agree with Hart. He's a really good player, arguably he's as under-appreciated as a .800+OPS guy can be. But, we're a lot more prepared to deal with Hart leaving (CF/RF: Gomez, Aoki, Khrush, Schafer; 1B: Gamel, Morris). I doubt we'd have a significant drop off in Wins if we traded Hart during the offseason to maximize value. Ramirez, on the other hand, is a different story. He's likely a 5+ish WAR guy right now. And that assumes you have an "average" guy to take his place... which we don't. If we could trade Hart and get enough pitching to make a decent deal for a 3+ish WAR 3b, I could get on the trade Ramirez bandwagon a lot easier. The problem with Weeks/Fielder/Braun type guys is that we don't pick in the top 10 very much lately. I'd love to see another wave of awesomeness show up that was the Fielder/Weeks/Rogers/Braun 4 year swing (picks 7/2/5/5). And we may crap out enough this season to get a top 10. But, I think it's pretty tough to get franchise guys out of the later rounds unless you get really lucky. And I don't think it's a good idea to do the Marlins thing, win then tank win then tank. We have an opportunity to keep a solid fanbase if we can just keep winning the next few years. I'm not sure we'd be able to handle a full on tank like the Astros are doing right now.

Please expand on that. "decent" is arguably a stretch. I'm sorry, but the Brewers farm system is still a bottom five system when compared to the rest of MLB. Fiers has been a great surprise, but I think the other arms in our system are still either overhyped, or too inexperienced to make any sort of impact next year. I'm all for giving them a shot in the rotation next year, but expecting them to perform at a level that would push the Brewers towards contention is highly unlikely. Let them work their bugs out in 2013, either in the bigs or AAA, and let's come out in 2014 or 2015 as a legit contender. That's actually pretty easy. (The ratings of the team farm clubs.. Keith Law, the brewers 24, BA: 26) Additions since that time: -Jean Segura is a top 50 prospect in baseball and he's only increased his status since he was obtained. That and only that raises the farm system significantly. -Mike Fiers wasn't even on the prospect list and now he's sporting a sub 2 ERA in MLB action. -Khris Davis wasn't getting much credit within the prospect lists as he was old for the system (lo/hi A) he was dominating in. He's subsequently got a 1.00+ OPS in both AA and AAA since then. He's back on the radar, significantly. -Hunter Morris: Non-Prospect has transformed into the Southern League MVP. -Jimmy Nelson is actually "buzzing" in the prospect circles now -Hellweg and Pena are just cherries on top! BA's top 10 before: 1. Wily Peralta, rhp 2. Taylor Jungmann, rhp 3. Jed Bradley, lhp 4. Tyler Thornburg, rhp 5. Scooter Gennett, 2b 6. Logan Schafer, of 7. Cody Scarpetta, rhp 8. Taylor Green, 3b/2b 9. Jorge Lopez, rhp 10. Jimmy Nelson, rhp Mine, now: 1. Jean Segura ss 2. Mike Fiers rhp 3. Wily Peralta rhp 4. Tyler Thornburg, rhp 5. Johnny Hellweg, rhp 6. Taylor Jungmann, rhp 7. Jimmy Nelson, rhp 8. Khris Davis, lf/rf 9. Hunter Morris, 1b 10. Scooter Gennett, 2b And that doesn't even sniff at the questionable calls of leaving off guys like Ariel Pena, Hiram Burgos and Mark Rogers. I'm not sure how the argument that the farm isn't significantly improved with production and the Greinke trade is possible. I'd put us middle of the pack, maybe above average at this point. But the best part is.. our weak spots are our prospect strengths. Harts last season next year: Khris Davis is demanding his chance at this point. The Black Hole of SS: Jean Segura 1B question mark: Hunter Morris is definitely stepping up. Starting/Relief Pitching: Just have 3 or 4 of Thornburg, Nelson, Fiers, Burgos, Rogers (who I think would make an EXCELLENT relief guy), Peralta, Hellweg, Pena and you're built up pretty solidly. I don't disagree that there might be bumps in the road in 2013, but, if the stars align right..... I can't argue with this strategy in a vacuum. But let me try to belabor one point. 2013 would be a question mark, for sure. Even if everything works out. Blowing it up and getting prepped for a 2014 run is certainly viable and likely much more possible than 2013. But.. and it's a big one.. one of the biggest aids in the resurgence of the Brewers is financial viability. Without some playoff magic the last few years, 3mil at the ballpark doesn't seem viable. And, in my opinion, we NEED the money to compete. 2014 has great potential, but, our gate receipts get crushed by a season and a half of bad baseball, I think we'll be in trouble financially when we go to fill a gap that we need money to do so. I may be panicking a bit on this, but, it seems like each year we're close, the brand grows and the money comes in. I don't want to lose that to the more bandwagon fans and go backwards in salary significantly. Anyone agree on this?

Totally agree with you there. An extension is certainly not something I'd be interested in and one that should be handled extremely carefully. My apologies on the quote. I'm not that great with the software here on the board. It's edited. I do understand your point, though and feel it is a good one on getting prospects for Hart and (possibly) Ramirez. I just really think we could go somewhere in 2013 if things fall for us right and I think, as a whole, the baseball community tends to overrate prospects a little too much. They are a risk and an unknown. I'm pretty much with Melvin on this one. Blow me away and we'll talk. But otherwise, I'm comfortable going in with Ramirez and less so, with Hart (as he only has a year left).

Another big start for Wily. Come on, buddy. Make us proud!! Keep this up and we'll be counting on you in the rotation in 2013!!

Two big questions: why would a team trade a 3b prospect that is projected for 2014 with enough potential for Aramis? That would equate to something similar to us now trading Jean Segura for say, Jimmy Rollins (if Rollins only had two more seasons left on his contract). I doubt it would happen. To get that kind of prospect, we'd have to probably trade one of our better pitching prospects. Which is a scary proposition. Second. I don't think people are giving Aramis enough credit for what he is doing. He's currently a 3.3 WAR. Behind only David Wright, Chase Headley and Miguel Cabrera. Seriously, that is HARD to match. I think people are far overestimating how difficult that is to find in a prospect and how difficult that is to be certain of when projecting a prospect. To be certain you could match that, you're looking at a Brett Lawrie type trade candidate. Among the top 10ish prospects out there, you'd probably have to get a Olt/Castellanos/Rendon type haul for your trade to really be certain you can get that type of production and be truly confident the prospect will pan out to what you need. How are you going to get that type of talent without a Wily Peralta/Tyler Thornberg type trade to do so. Look, I'm not saying it's not possible and I can't imagine Doug Melvin won't at least see what is out there in terms of trade for Hart/Ramirez. There's a lot of question marks out there right now. Aramis and Hart are stability. It'll take a bit of luck to ensure our starting pitchers (although there is a LOT of options, so that risk is mitigated) are solid 2013-2014. I would HATE to add more question marks to the equation in 2013 and 2014. In summary: Don't underestimate what you have in Hart, and moreso, Aramis. That is a STRENGTH right now and I'd hate to turn it into a weakness.

It's kinda weird that Claudio Vargas is hitting .308 right now, right?

Hunter Morris, also good at baseball, and walkoff three run homeruns in the 11th inning.

Jean Segura is good at baseball.

That's a bit rough, isn't it? I don't think there is ignorance there. I think it's a difference of opinion. I happen to disagree with the idea of moving Ramirez as well. I understand the thought of moving him for youth, but, just think that's the wrong direction. Ryan Braun is a once in a LONG time talent and there is a whole bunch of really good pitching prospects and a decent amount of free agent money that is usable as a resource for a successful 2013 season. Aramis is exceeding his value this year (likely will end up as a 16-17mil value via fangraphs unless something explodes) and its certainly not a stretch to think he won't maintain a pretty solid value over the next two seasons as well. Personally, I find the risk of a dramatic drop off in 2013 to be pretty low in comparison to the risk of not being able to find an adequate replacement for Aramis i we end up trading him for other pieces. Maybe that risk goes up in 2014, but for now, i'm not overly concerned. As well, if next year stinks, he's probably a pretty potent trade chip at the deadline. Both directions are viable, I (and apparently others) think that the "bird in the hand" direction is better for us in 2013 for sure and not altogether too worrisome for years beyond that.

My last name is Hellwig. Therefore, Johnny has become my all time favorite brewer prospect.

Totally agree. Jean Segura maybe, for need. Though I could see a stop-gap to begin 2013 while he finishes up in AAA. It just seems to me that prospects should be making the club put them on the roster. Earn your position, don't have it given to you.

I can think of two replacements offhand: Mat Gamel and Taylor Green. Neither would be poor options, especially if the team commits to one or the other as the starter, and gets them regular at-bats. With all the young prospects coming up in the outfield (Schaefer, Gindl, John Prince, and the Davises), maybe it's time to think about moving Braun to another position to fill a hole that might be opened up if A-Ram and Hart are traded. Green, Gindl, Schafer, Prince and Kentrail Davis aren't exactly lighting it up in the minors. I'm not sure how a bunch of guys who put up .750 or less OPS in the minors is not considered a poor option when compared to Aramis (and Hart), who consistently puts up 800+ OPS against major league pitching. Jean Segura, Khris Davis and possibly Hunter Morris are the only ones within the minors who are consistently proving they are ready for a major league position. I seriously don't understand why an argument for a youth movement is not taking into consideration that quite a few of those youth movement pieces aren't even proving their worth against lesser competition.

Doesn't that make a big assumption though? That none of our plethora of options next season will be ready? After Fiers this year, I think that's somewhat of a bad assumption. Gallardo and Fiers for sure. Peralta and Rogers we will get an idea of the rest of the season. Thornburg, Hellweg, Nelson, Burgos are all probably options for spots in the rotation and we'll get a better picture of them the rest of the season. Not to mention, Marcum on a 1 year 13mil deal might not be a bad thing if he proves healthy the rest of the season. I think the assumption of finding a 800+ OPS 4+ WAR player to replace Aramis and a 800+OPS 3+WAR player to Replace Hart in 2014 is less likely then finding three decently above average starters from that pool of candidates we have. Not to mention, you could 1. still trade Hart at the Deadline and 2) Still trade Ramirez at the deadline or next offseason, should the need arise. Both options are viable. I just think we have more options to find help in the rotation and less options to replace such truly excellent players in Hart and Ramirez.

I dont disagree with the strategy and the A's did it well. I simply don't think it's the right one to employ. I think there is another wave of prospects coming. Those prospects can be plugged in or traded but if three or four of Segura, Morris, Davis, Burgos, Fiers, Thornburg (cant believe i forgot him in my last post), Peralta, Rogers, Nelson, Hellweg, Pena find success (or are used to buy success, ala the greinke/marcum trades), another window is not long off and 2013 is not outside of the realm of possibility by any means.

Just wondering why exactly? I know I'm new to posting here. But... Aoki/Gomez CF Lucroy C Braun LF Ramirez 3B Hart/Khris Davis RF Morris/Hart 1B Weeks 2B Segura SS Seems like a pretty strong lineup to me. I maybe delusional, but, I actually like that lineup a lot! I think Khrush Davis (love that nickname), Hunter Morris and Segura are "demanding their time" in Milwaukee next year. Where guys like Green, Shafer, Gindl and Gennett aren't really pushing the front office to get rid of the quality guys (Hart especially) some are attempting to replace. The rest of this season is the key. Who is going to step up and "demand" their time in Milwaukee next year? I think you have enough pieces Fiers/Burgos/Peralta/Rogers/Nelson/Hellweg/Marcum(1 year)/Estrada to find at least three solid rotation spots around Yo and you just know they are going to at least make a run at Greinke (sure, unlikely, but who knows) and still have a shot at a Greinke/Marcum-like trade in the offseason. The bullpen stinks, but, you're not locked into any crappy contracts and there's a ton of guys I'd like a look at: Henderson, Jesus Sanchez, Pena maybe and if you are going to fix something in free agency, the least expensive thing to fix is the bullpen. I'm actually excited for the rest of the season and the September call ups. And I'm loving Peralta, Burgos, Fiers, Rogers, Segura, Morris, and Davis allowing another wave of, what appears to be, a decent maybe above average wave of prospects to start another window of winning. I'd say the success of these guys are key.. they are a wave of prospects that "snuck up" a bit, success-wise. They just aren't as obvious as a Weeks/Fielder/Braun/Hart type wave. Reap the benefits!