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I sort of lost track of Jimmy Nelson in the mix of really fun SP prospects to watch. Nice to see him coming out strong. He's another guy who has mid to top of the rotation stuff if he puts it all together. Go Downward Thunder!

My bright spots: -Jean Segura... a SS that can defend and hit. Looks like a legit leadoff type. -Nori Aoki.. a nice core piece playing well. -Braun.. he's just unreal. -Peralta/Estrada.. nice bounce-back outings! Looks great. Definitely excited to see how they roll this year. -Lohse.. I'll reserve a bit of judgment for now as it's only been one start, but he started off fantastic. -SP prospects: Burgos, Hellweg, Nelson, Jungman, Thornburg, even Bradley have started off really well and have some serious potential to positively impact our starting pitching. (I think this is the most pivotal year for prospects since Prince/Braun/Weeks were coming through)

Your post is very well thought out and I applaud the kindhearted debate. I'd argue that the Brewers approach is very similar to the Rangers. They had a run and are now re-loading for another potential run. The Rangers have a bigger wallet the Milwaukee, but I can see some very similar concepts in practice. Cliff Lee trade, CC Sabathia trade. Braun locked up, Andrus locked up Lock up core pieces: Hart, Weeks, Gallardo v. Kinsler, Young, Harrison Take a shot types (I'd argue that the Rangers REALLY hit the jackpot on this): Aoki, Nyjer v. Hamilton, Cruz Fill in holes with Free Agents (I'd argue that the Rangers can spend a lot more then us on this): Ramirez, Lohse v. Darvish, Beltre Both the Rangers and the Brewers are somewhat taking a breath this season to re-load their window. Maybe I'm delusional, but I see them as very similar situations.

It's not a solution. It's a band-aid. The "plan" was Hart with Gamel as a backup. Gamel isn't in the "prospect" mold anymore, he is what he is and he fits the mold of a cheap backup. Green was probably plan C. Gonzalez plan D. Yuni is Plan E as a temporary measure. Once you get to plan E, it's safe to say that the plan is completely screwed and you just make do until Plan B/C/D are doable. I personally think Melvin is avoiding bringing up Morris or Halton to keep them in the minors for evaluation purposes. They are options next year if Hart is gone.

Really? I see a very distinct plan. A difficult one, to be certain as small market teams will always be WELL behind the curve, but, there's definitely some planning here. Outside looking in (and I don't presume to know a tenth of what Attanasio and Melvin about business and management of a baseball team).. the strategy appears to me to be: 1. Lock in your core. If you find a piece that is likely to be your within your core, lock it up if at all possible for as long as possible to avoid free agent losses. (Braun, Weeks, Hart, Gallardo) 2. Because you don't have unlimited resources, you need to be a bit risky in "projecting" the core to catch them before they potentially "blow up" and get too expensive (Lucroy, Gomez) 3. Identify holes in the core: Fill those holes by: - Using prospects (who seem to be overvalued) to acquire fill-ins who aren't hugely expensive (Greinke, Marcum, Sabbatia) - Acquiring cheap free agents (Gorzelanny, Saito, Hawkins) - Flyers on cast offs, question marks (Nyjer, K-Rod, Aoki) - And as much quantity as possible within the minors in spots that are problematic (SP: Hellweg, Peralta, Rogers, Burgos, Thornburg, Fiers etc). - Use very cheap veteran MLB backups to keep the prospects in the minors playing every day. 4. When a hole looks huge and no options appear imminent in the minors, go for mid level free agents to fill it (Aramis, Lohse) as long as it doesn't break your budget.

Hellweg is the cherry on top!

If this is 100% the case, then the Brewers have a massive problem in talent evaluation in the organization. There is absolutely no reason, beyond a case like Rogers's arm not being live, that a GM and manager should need Spring Training to evaluate the talent they have. They should have had a very solid idea coming into ST, and then used players' current form to help decide rotation order, etc. As it stands, with regards to the pitching, the only plan seems to have been to throw mid-level money at the bullpen & hope everything else worked out. Earlier in the offseason when Edwin Jackson was available without the cost of losing a first-round pick, there were many posters here who advocated signing him in the interest of adding stability & depth to a young & inexperienced rotation. Melvin played the 'you don't want to get burned in FA' card at the time, & stuck to his guns that the talent the Brewers had in-house was good enough to rely on for 2013... and then wound up guaranteeing over $30m to a pitcher through his age-36 season (along with losing a first round pick) because it was clear the rotation needed more depth & stability. If Melvin needed ST to show him that his front office's talent evaluation of the pitching staff was wrong, then that's yet another indicator that it's time for the Brewers to move on & make some changes in the front office. Isn't that really speculative? Here's an alternative scenario: The goal for the starting pitching staff was: 1. Gallardo 2. Estrada 3. Peralta 4. Rogers 5. Fiers Narveson was an option B and Burgos an option C. Hellweg/Thornburg are option D/E, but they would much prefer to keep them down at AAA. The brewers are monitoring the Lohse situation as he's a decent option, but, presumably his "Boras" price (4 years, probably a pretty hefty AAV) is outside of what they want to pay. They are comfortable with their internal options at that point and are content to not panic and let the chips fall where they may. Spring training is about to end and Boras is getting a little worried. The asking price goes down on Lohse to a spot that, while not comfortable, is acceptable to Melvin/Attanasio. They get Lohse. Rogers goes down. Lohse plugs in instead of Narveson as option B. Narveson is injured, Burgos is pitching well and probably doesn't need any seasoning. If Rogers doesn't come back and Fiers can't regain his form from last year, Burgos comes in as an option. The plan for the next year transforms into: Gallardo Lohse Estrada Peralta/Rogers/Hellweg/Burgos/Fiers/Jungman/Thornburg (pick the best 2).

Well...that might be a minor issue, but the real reason is that Melvin and Roenicke didn't have an MLB-ready #3 first baseman after #1 and #2 went down. Got it! How could they have neglected such a pivotal slot in our organization. Quite obviously, championships are won and lost by the #3 first baseman. Good call.

I may be throwing out a radical idea here, but, could our lack of success so far this year be attributed to the fact that our top 3 offensive players are injured? I'm probably wrong though and I'm sure there's overwhelming evidence that carrying 12 pitchers compared to 13 would have provided a drastic difference in our success this season but I thought I'd throw out a radical counterpoint.

I'd argue that Suppan and Looper weren't "fixed" to begin with from the Cardinals. Suppan barely squeaked over average in his time with the Cardinals (hovered around 1 WAR) and Looper was the same if not a bit worse.

I really love this deal. I believe this is the kind of "buy low with an opportunity to score big" move that a small market team has to make to win big. Olney tweeted that the present day value (considering deferral money) of this contract is around 9.5m per year. Why? Because of the draft pick, mostly. Overvalue of draft picks/prospects is the trend that Melvin is taking advantage of here. At that rate, you have the potential for an unmitigated "steal". This guy has been lights out the last two years since changing his approach. He's got a 2.2 WAR in 2011 and 3.9 WAR in 2012. That's worth a hell of a lot more than 9.5/year. Is there risk? Hell yeah, there's risk, but, there is also a serious reward side of this as well. Consider that Zack Greinke has had WAR of 1.4, 2.1 an 1.2 the past three seasons. It's the calculated risk moves like signing Aoki, extending Lucroy/Go-Go and now this that makes/breaks how we compete going forward. If nothing else, it buys time for guys like Burgos, Thornburg, Nelson, Jungman, Bradley, Rogers, Peralta and Hellweg to prove themselves. It'll be interesting to see if we get boom, bust, or something in between. Either way, it's a pretty calculated risk that certainly falls "below" market value for someone who has been a pretty damn good pitcher (and would appear to be a pretty good veteran presence) the last two seasons.

Brilliant post. I think you hit the nail on the head here. Prospects are, in my opinion, severely overvalued. I had not thought of a "moneyball" type angle on that however. I appreciate the insight.

My point is... That is a bias that skews thinking. The facts are there and people ignore this data because Estrada doesn't fit into the stereotype they have concocted for a top of the rotation starter. The facts are in the last two years Marco Estrada strikes out a batter per inning despite throwing high 80's/low 90's, doesn't walk ,any batters and is trending toward (and maintained last year) a sub 4 era. His stats have been on a good solid increase over the last two years as well, and we are over 220 innings so sample size is starting to become irrelevant. He's a control pitcher with a hella good change up. I think I'd be more surprised from the data that exists on him if he didn't have similar numbers to 2011 and 2012 then the alternative hypothesis. In short, don't let the "throw hard" stereotype get in the way of real data.

If Estrada threw 95, you'd be willing to buy a successful number-similar season, I bet. Right?

Don't ignore Jesus Sanchez. Quietly (apparently REALLY quietly), he had a 1.63 ERA between AA/AAA this year.

A few thought the team needed a massive overhaul. Most thought we should trade a few guys to get young good players back in return. Those players included ramirez, hart and even gallardo. All three of which are instumental in this playoff push as well as key cogs in next years plan. Roeneke and Melvin deserve some kudos. Their steadfast belief in the players and patience during the "storm" is now being rewarded.

Seriously? Ramirez still cant catch a break around here? Deferred or not, aramis is the best free agent signing in the league right now. His value by fangraphs is in the 24mil range and he is in the team picture for nl mvp. The guy is great for us at a black hole type position of need for the crew. He doesnt kill our payroll flexibility and I doubt even in the backload year it will either. Hart comes off the books and it appears we will have young and cheap as a replacement as well as in our starting pitcher corps. Historically, a position player that has been so consistently good over the years doesnt fall off as quickly as a starter when the decline happens. We got amazing value this year, should get solid value the next and would probabaly break even (or close) in year three. I, for one, cannot be more happy with Aramis Ramirez!!!

I think I've seen enough of the young pitchers to change my opinion on this topic. A guy like Zack Greinke is a difference maker on our team. Nobody else out there will be much of a difference from a Gallardo, Fiers, Rogers, Estrada, Peralta/Burgos/Thornburg rotation. I think it's a pretty safe bet that one of Peralta, Burgos and Thornburg can shore up that last spot. Greinke Gallardo Fiers Rogers Estrada Looks great to me! Gallardo Fiers Rogers Estrada Burgos/Thorn/Peralta + a decent amount of money in the bullpen Looks just fine to me as well.

The exciting part about that thinking is.. he would be right. The lineup is super solid. The young pitching (rogers, fiers, estrada) is blossoming splendidly. We still can get a good look at some more (burgos, peralta) and we just need to shore up a bullpen. We could ride a nice wave into next season with a really nice mix of youth and exprience!

It's certainly lucky then that there's about a hundred other options rather than signing Dempster and a couple of free agent relievers then isn't it? "Signing Dempster and a couple of free agent relievers" was an example scenario. You could sub that with "Signing Edwin Jackson and a couple of free agent relievers". Instead of being sarcastic, you could elaborate on your general plan to be contenders next year. I understand you want to give the young guys a shot and converting Hellweg and Pena to relievers when they are probably not even MLB ready next year. That's all fine and good, but that's not going to get the job done as far as turning the team into a contender in 2013. I'm also a little puzzled that you want to give the young pitchers a shot (which I agree with), but you also earlier suggested a "Greinke-like trade" this offseason if we are unable to land Greinke himself. There is no Greinke-like trade that doesn't involve parting with the best pitching pieces in our farm system. The difference between "signing Dempster" and "signing Jackson" is so different, I can't even fathom defending it. But that is neither here-nor-there. I do advocate getting a good look at what we have in youth. But other than that, I'm not advocating anything other than the thought that calling "punt" on 2013 seems just silly to me. I'm just giving one of about a thousand options that may present itself as a good direction for success in 2003. I don't presume myself "smarter" than Doug Melvin and if I went out and made some stab at an "uber plan", it'd be nothing but throwing darts at a wall as I have no idea who's available or a price for each free agent. Nor do I have a good idea of how well our young guys will perform in the next two months of the season to prove themselves for a spot next season. Nobody does at this point. But just for fun, here: Starter 1: Zack Greinke (23mil) Starter 2: Yovanni Gallardo (8mil) Starter 3: Mike Fiers (500k) Starter 4: Tyler Thornburg (500k) or Burgos or Peralta Starter 5: Mark Rogers (500k) or Burgos or Peralta Starters: 32.5mil RP 1: Henderson (500k) RP 2: Sanchez (500k) RP 3: Parra (2mil) RP 4: Axford (2mil) RP 5: Narveson (LR, 500k) RP 6: Estrada (1.5mil) RP 7: Rafael Soriano (8mil) RP 8: Tanner Scheppers (in a trade from Texas Rangers Corey Hart or some other decent prospect) (500k) Relief: 15.5mil Pitching: 48mil C: Lucroy (850k), Muldonado (500k) 1B: Gamel and Morris (500k, 500k) 2B: Weeks (11mil) SS: Segura (500k) 3B: Ramirez (10mil) Utility Infielder: Bianchi (500k), Green (500k) RF: Aoki (1.5mil) CF: Gomez (4mil) LF: Braun (11mil) Utility Outfielder: Khris Davis (500k), Logan Schafer (500k) Hart traded for something. Position players: 41mil Total 89mil. I'd say we'd be a contender with that and it includes just about everything you can think of.. trade for a prospect, trade of Hart, Free Agent RP, Free Agent SP. And please don't disect this idea.. I'm not really truly serious here (mostly because I think it's just plain crazy to even try to predict what could/will happen), I just think we have both assets, position players and youth to make a decent dent next season. Yay.

It's certainly lucky then that there's about a hundred other options rather than signing Dempster and a couple of free agent relievers then isn't it?

These are the types of short-sighted moves the Brewers need to avoid. The reliever to starter pathway is pretty decently proven. Lance Lynn, Chris Sale, CJ Wilson, Adam Wainright, Jeff Samardijza. If a guy can pitch, it'll work out. But way to latch on to one theoretical option among many to attempt to make some type of point without offering any alternative options.

You're set at nearly every position. In theory, position production should actually be better next year (Lucroy, Weeks, Segura). You've got one solid starter in Gallardo, an apparently decent option in Fiers and about, what, 4 guys who are pretty darn close to ready for a starting spot (Rogers, Thornburg, Burgos, Peralta) who you'll get a pretty good look at the rest of the season. At least two guys (Henderson, Sanchez) who could get a good look the rest of the season and could provide some decently solid options in the bullpen and several flame thrower types (Hellweg, Pena) that could convert to reliever pretty easily. Add, what, probably about 20mil in FA money? Plus another 10 (Hart) that comes off in 2014 and 25mil (Weeks, Ramirez) that comes off in 2015. Is it really that difficult to see a solid plan immerge or am I just experiencing some homerific delusions?

Let me respond to some of this. I agree that you HAVE to supplement with youth. It's the only way to function. But, you can't possibly get lucky enough to always fill holes with youth. It's not about "retaining a player" until the end of his career. It is making smart moves to get slightly above replacement level players and using all of your resources to avoid gaping holes that are below replacement level players. What I'm advocating is not a tear down, nor an overspend. I'm saying this. Ryan Braun is a 7 WAR player. That's ridiculous. The fact that he is a 7WAR type player makes forming a roster much easier. When he becomes a 5 WAR or less player as he ages, it gets that much more difficult to obtain the consistent quality of players around him to put together a winning team. You don't tear things down. You simply make smart moves and you don't make those moves in a vacuum. Sure, Aramis Ramirez is going to make a lot of money the next two years. But he's also going to (probably) put up a 4 or 5 WAR at a position (3B) where we have nothing but a sucking black hole behind him. Hey, if the Greinke deal brought back Mike Olt, it's probably a much more feasible option. If you can find a way to improve the rest of the roster to replace that 4 or 5 WAR, hey, go for it. But, you also probably have to replace one or two WAR in negative equity at the 3B position. That was, and is always, my point. I think it's probably easier to replace some of the negative equity in relief pitching we had this year than to attempt to use Ramirez to upgrade other slots to meet or exceed his positive equity. Hart, maybe a little easier, but until you have a good plan on how to replace his 3+WAR, I don't think it's wise to go to crazy trying to dump him for other assets. I think we got really lucky getting a major league ready young prospect at our most difficult "sucking black hole" of a position of negative equity.. SS. Go Jean Segura!! Our starting pitching prospects have some definite upside and relief pitching is "supposedly" the easiest of holes to fix. I just see no reason to give up on 2013. There's some decent potential there and I can't see "hurting" ourselves too dramatically future-wise if we choose not to trade Hart and/or Ramirez.

Fair enough, but what long term plan are you looking for? I think he had a pretty darn good plan to start off with. Rebuild the minor league system and when it hits the majors, use the minors to get what you need to finish off the roster. Last year was worth the push. The Greinke trade was a good one and we got .75cents on the dollar for the prospects we traded to get him. If not for the Marcum injury, I'd imagine we'd have got a decent haul for him mid season as well. I just think there is a plan out there that could and would work that doesn't just "scrap" 2013 and hope that doing so gets us enough to compete in 2014.