SoCalBrewfan

I really feel like the tone of brewer fan discussions is worse than in the old days. Makes me sad, makes me post and read a lot less. The article framing, or maybe just its headline, are odd, to me at least. 'Need to' is not the question at all, it's rather is a trade worth it given that the contract will be widely perceived to have significant negative value and might frankly be at an all time low given the remaining years. It will cost a bunch of money and/or assets to unload that contract, assumings it's even possible to do so.

So much drama, folks, over what is a pretty minor and likely at most complementary acquisition. To me, Perkins might most resemble Keon Broxton...not physically but in terms of role. Broxton was never a build around guy, but his CF defense and speed gave him a moderately valuable profile despite his below average 736 ops as a Brewer. Broxton managed 4.3 bWAR over 270 games in three seasons, and even after Lo Cain was signed Broxton had positive WAR in a season in which he hit .179. That's not to say that Perkins is guaranteed to have any value, just that he might be able to fill the same sort of role and can have value as a complementary piece or platoon partner even if he doesn't hit much. It's seems unlikely that all of the rookie OF types will find success, so spreading the risk by having multiple options has value, as does having a complementary piece with defensive value, whom you don't mind optioning or promoting based on the performance of more central talents. Also, who would be surprised to see Perkins DFA out of the blue as part of a bigger deal? It's not like the bottom of the 40 man roster is filled with irreplaceable excellence right now. Unexpected MLB contracts as incentive seem to be a thing, even Shelby Miller just signed one with the Dodgers despite throwing 7 major league innings last year.

I mean, there's no sense in letting facts get in the way of a good rant, but Perry Minasian, the Angels GM, doesn't fit that characterization at all. His dad Zack worked in baseball, Perry was a ball boy at age 8 or something and around the game from his youth. He played college ball at UT Arlington and worked as a scout. Two of his brothers are also in baseball, including a former Brewers scout (also Zack, now with SF). I guess Maddon has axes to grind, but it seems from here like he had lots of success with an analytics based org in Tampa and then with Theo Epstein in Chicago. Does he also throw those guys under the bus? Also, a line I found weird was the lament that 'managers used to be celebrities' and the claims that this was changed by instant replay and meddling GMs that made managers adopt bland corporate speak.

Is 1 in 5 (the worse of the two odds percentages) really a miracle? If succeeding on a 31% chance is a miracle, should I sing hallelujah every time Willy Adames gets on base? I think they are who they've been all year, an 85-90 win team...which is a playoff team when things go well and outside looking in when they don't. Pitching depth wasn't there when they needed it, so they're looking up at the danged Phillies, Padres, and Cardinals...considering their bad stretch after the trade deadline it's kind of surprising they have any chance at all.

Crapshoot as in completely random roll of the dice? No. But I think two things are true: 1. There's no guarantee that the 'better' team wins a short series. A one game playoff is closest to a coin flip, but baseball being baseball means that the lesser team can win a five or seven game series. This year of course there are three game series... 2. The playoffs are different and 'better' is different from the regular season. Rotation depth is less critical, you go to the bullpen a lot, your 4 and 5 starters might be in the 'pen or off the playoff roster altogether. You face more good pitching and defense, so stringing together base hits is harder, and historically IIRC home runs account for a bigger fraction of runs. We of course have a very strong 1-2 combo of starters, several good choices for a third or fourth starter allowing us to play matchups a bit, and an offense that is well above average in HRs. Whether the bullpen is up to the task remains to be seen but the pieces are there. So while the Brewers are not the best regular season team from among the Dodgers / Mets / Braves / Padres, there's reason to believe that getting into the playoffs gives them a puncher's chance.

We all like to pretend we know a lot about the minors, etc., but most of us are relying on reports filtered through several sources. Teams have a vested interest in inflating value of their prospects and keeping cards close to the vest. You see fans, say, who get crazy because the Brewers pick a guy at 27 who was ranked 68 by MLB.com. As though the publicly available ranking is the truth, and the team is a bunch of keystone cops who can't shoot straight. Heck, the Brewers third rounder was not rated. But if anyone's information is lacking, it's likely to be the media...on draft day they admitted as much, saying they don't know as much as the teams.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Ruiz in the majors this year, though he seems like he's got more to learn as a defensive CF. As a former IF he could do a bit of the utility role that Peterson was filling, though you might well argue that from a development point of view it's better to keep him in CF at AAA. (With the depth he's moving around in AAA as it is, though.) My guess is that Turang is expected to break camp with the Brewers as part of the infield group (as they love to say) and that Wong will move on. He's rebounded a bit with the bat but his normally reliable D has slipped and I could see them saving the money. Turang's D is supposed to be really good so there's maybe even a chance that Adames would move to 2b or 3b? Adames 3b, Turang SS, Urias 2b could well be their best defensive alignment.

Lamet claimed by Rockies. That sounds like the place for him to figure out what's ailing him.

This whole sequence of catcher moves was/is so awkward, I wonder whether some other move didn't fall through at the last minute. Carrying three catchers for so long seemed sketchy, but the team clearly thought they could use one as part of a deal, even if it was just for a low level nugget type. But then they've done awkward roster construction like this before, of course. See, e.g, the Thames, Aguilar, Choi era pre DH, or the overlapping Shaw and Moose period. They have always been able to make something work and/or use the surplus in trade, but it always felt like it would come back to bite them at some point. It figures that would be in the midst of a close division race amidst a confusing trade deadline.

Is that Carlos F Rodriguez I see listed as Wisconsin starter? I hadn't seen news of his promotion but it seems to be well deserved.

It's disappointing but it has been clear for some time that the Brewers didn't think as highly of Barker as some fans did...seems there were a few times when he was passed over for promotion despite stellar minor league stats. It would be good for him to have a fresh start, and I certainly wish him well. Assigning malicious intent to the FO or owner seems unwarranted to me, especially after the update, but I guess once the pitchforks are lit and the torches are sharpened all bets are off.

At least in public the ask from Washington has been five or more young major leaguers or prospects, I imagine that this plays out like (as said above) 3 or 4 FV 50+ guys and then a couple of what Doug Melvin used to call 'nuggets.' (Details matter a lot of course.) It's very hard to put together enough prospect value for most teams. For contenders with young players in key major league roles they might well be asked to surrender some of them, and Washington has plenty of leverage here. A Soto package is going to hurt. To wit, a Brewers package might well need to include Ashby and Devin Williams plus Chourio plus Frelick just to get in the discussion.. As noted above, we don't have enough in the farm system otherwise, and I doubt that taking on Corbin's contract to lower the price is a viable option for Milwaukee. I would be stunned to see the Brewers having the winning offer here. OTOH, it's not hard to see why the Cardinals are among the front runners, but it might well cost them some guys currently in the majors (Gorman, Donovan, Yepez, Zack Thompson, maybe even Dylan Carlson?) AND a chunk of their top 100 guys (Walker, Liberatore, Winn, Herrera). They have a big advantage with a 60 FV guy in Walker and I think Washington requires him to be in any deal. Would they do Gorman, Walker, Liberatore, Winn and change? Would you? It would be a fascinating all in move for St Louis (and I do fear this somewhat), but their window might be as narrow as ours, and it would take a big chunk of their future to get him.

Ya know, whatever else you say about Counsell, these Brewers are resilient and seem to give up a lot less than, say, posters in the game thread. I can just tune out when it looks bad, but they are there, in the dugout, stuck dealing with what must be some frustrating stuff. And they get past the goofs and bad breaks and opponent comebacks, and win a surprising number of games that I had written off. I can't say all of that is Counsell, but some of it must be.

Just off the top of my head, at least two Brewers-drafted hitters have made recent all-star games with other teams: Mitch Haninger (SEA via AZ), Garrett Cooper (MIA); Trent Grisham (SDP) likely deserved to go as well. As to the main question, I think the system is really weak for making big deadline deals, particularly if some key names are off limits. Chourio should be in that category IMO, but it seems like they also have near-term big league plans/needs for both Turang and Frelick. Maybe they move one of Mitchell or Wiemer if they can get a bat with some control (not a rental)? Small is off limits for some, but I have to wonder how much the Brewers think of him if they gave so many starts to Chi Chi and Alexander. I wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt. We've recently dealt from medium tier IF and pitching surpluses, but that depth is already depleted and some of the guys they might have used have been hurt and/or ineffective: Zamora, Black, Bullock, Floyd. The pitching someone else might want is mostly far from MLB, guys like Jarvis, Kelly, Carlos F Rodriguez. Maybe Knarr and Shook will get some looks, particularly if the Brewers' rep of spotting pitching talent carries some weight. Cam Devanney and Felix Valerio are IF who might have some value and though I'd be a bit sad to lose Valerio, you could argue that we have a number of 2b types. This might be the year Lutz is dealt; his numbers are on the upswing (heh) but he seems to have been passed by and will soon need to be added to the 40 man roster. And that's actually a pretty important note; a bunch of second and third tier prospects will be Rule 5 eligible this offseason if not added....there are way too many to protect, so they are prime candidates for deals. Not all of these guys would stick on a major league roster, but the teams selling often have deep needs for talent and can afford the 40-man slots. Some names on that list (from the excellent post below) that might have some value include RHP Bettinger, File, Lazar, Jarvis, Vasssallotti, Castaneda, Puello, Cam Robinson, (Abner Uribe injured) LHP Kelly IF Devanney, Valerio, Holt, Garcia (!?) OF Lutz, Joe Gray JR, (Bello, Ward injured) Kelly and Valerio are most likely to be protected I think. Garcia being on here and so far from the bigs makes him maybe a stronger candidate than I would have thought for a trade, though I think the team thinks pretty highly of him.

Just off the top of my head, at least two Brewers-drafted hitters have made recent all-star games with other teams: Mitch Haninger (SEA via AZ), Garrett Cooper (MIA); Trent Grisham (SDP) likely deserved to go as well. As to the main question, I think the system is really weak for making big deadline deals, particularly if some key names are off limits. Chourio should be in that category IMO, but it seems like they also have near-term big league plans/needs for both Turang and Frelick. Maybe they move one of Mitchell or Wiemer if they can get a bat with some control (not a rental)? Small is off limits for some, but I have to wonder how much the Brewers think of him if they gave so many starts to Chi Chi and Alexander. I wouldn't be surprised to see him dealt. We've recently dealt from medium tier IF and pitching surpluses, but that depth is already depleted and some of the guys they might have used have been hurt and/or ineffective: Zamora, Black, Bullock, Floyd. The pitching someone else might want is mostly far from MLB, guys like Jarvis, Kelly, Carlos F Rodriguez. Maybe Knarr and Shook will get some looks, particularly if the Brewers' rep of spotting pitching talent carries some weight. Cam Devanney and Felix Valerio are IF who might have some value and though I'd be a bit sad to lose Valerio, you could argue that we have a number of 2b types. This might be the year Lutz is dealt; his numbers are on the upswing (heh) but he seems to have been passed by and will soon need to be added to the 40 man roster. And that's actually a pretty important note; a bunch of second and third tier prospects will be Rule 5 eligible this offseason if not added....there are way too many to protect, so they are prime candidates for deals. Not all of these guys would stick on a major league roster, but the teams selling often have deep needs for talent and can afford the 40-man slots. Some names on that list (from the excellent post below) that might have some value include RHP Bettinger, File, Lazar, Jarvis, Vasssallotti, Castaneda, Puello, Cam Robinson, (Abner Uribe injured) LHP Kelly IF Devanney, Valerio, Holt, Garcia (!?) OF Lutz, Joe Gray JR, (Bello, Ward injured) Kelly and Valerio are most likely to be protected I think. Garcia being on here and so far from the bigs makes him maybe a stronger candidate than I would have thought for a trade, though I think the team thinks pretty highly of him.

I think it's also clear that the most recent season's stats are only part of the picture. Of course there are scouting reports, but the Brewers seem to look on a longer timeframe and several prominent recent picks were coming off of disappointing years and/or had good looks in the Cape, etc. Sometimes that works out, but then there are always the Hayden Cantrelle picks where perhaps the most recent numbers really did tell the real story. It was certainly true that Corey Ray was viewed as a toolsy prospect with a questionable hit tool who would need some development time...more a project that one might have expected of a top 5 college bat. I didn't appreciate that at the time of the pick. For a stretch in AA I though maybe he had some it figured out, but he also seemed to have bad injury luck. It kind of seems like this draft class is an explicit response (for better or worse) to the travails of some of these previous failed prospects. It sure seems like they have given up the notion of drafting a 35 or 40 hit tool with batting practice power in the hopes that they'll figure out contact. We've gone through so many of these guys over the years; at least Brinson, Diaz and Harrison were used as trade bait. (Noting of course that the Brewers didn't draft either Brinson or Diaz.) I would not be surprised to learn that this is a result of the modeling types crunching numbers in the basement at Miller Park.

Ah, the inevitable late round switch pitcher. Whoever wanted some big bonus guys late, there you go.

Usually there are one or two of these guys who go from, I've never heard of him to, OMG we have to sign him or else the whole draft is a bust. I'll have to wait for the experts to tell us who those are, though, but maybe Adams is one? The new d/f process will also potentially be in play for some of these guys I imagine? Brewers used this to great success back in the day, it seems like their kind of thing in its current incarnation as well.

With all due respect, I don't know where that's coming from; utility roles might be the fallback position but Brown and Moore are strong bats who have defensive value that can stick in the middle of the field. Maybe they're more like to bat 1-2 in an order than 4-5 but the potential value in OBP heavy profile with some pop and great D is there. It's important to remember also that the MLB draft has very little to do with the current makeup of the big league squad. So drafting based on the current perception of the brewers offense, say, is somewhat misguided. That's more a general comment than response to this post, but it seems like a lot of commenters are mad about the draft because it doesn't deliver fixes for the current big league lineup...which will be ancient history when these guys are in their primes.

The rules for bonuses etc make those more likely in day 3 I believe.

I realized this is old, but saw this: My answer to that, though nobody really asked, is that it used to be that bf.net prided itself on thoughtful discussion and not just hot takes. It was explicitly created as a haven from some other message boards (can't remember whether it was ESPN, JSOnline, or both) that were, bluntly, pools of cess. Those other boards had so much noise that it was hard to find the signal. When you see a trade thread for, say, Adames, and there are posts that say what are we doing, never heard of him but this guy's hitting under 200!!?, well, it's just not fun or engaging for some. It's noise. See also game threads. The thinking at one time was that there are plenty of places on the internet to post WE ROOL CUBS DROOL LMAO, but it was worth fighting to keep this a haven of mostly thoughtful discussion. Possibly that ship has now sailed, though. I'm not sure that it's useful to rub poster's noses in their hot takes that haven't aged well, but I also think if you're putting your opinions out there aggressively, you should have skin thick enough to take some expected pushback.

Testing. Riles. Urias. Arcia.

Here's the MLBTR article, but at first glance it doesn't cite sources: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/mlb-announces-postponement-of-games-through-april-14.html

From an article on MLBTR, it seemed to me that the elimination of draft pick compensation had been tentatively agreed to, but that the league then tied it to the international draft, which the players had opposed all along. When this was resisted, the league decided unilaterally that this was the hill the process would die on? It doesn't seem like this is negotiation in good faith, but I am less certain than some posters above that the blame is all on the players. MLB tabled all discussions on other matters beyond that decision, presenting the MLBPA with an ultimatum — choose one of those courses of action or break off negotiations, which would result in another week’s worth of game cancelations. This is a weird negotiation because both sides seem to be playing to the fans and media...what they hope to do with the points they score in this way I cannot fathom. I guess there is hope that the pressure will be on one side or the other to settle lest fans blame them for the stoppage. I suspect that the effect is more a pox on both your houses effect.