SoCalBrewfan

Long ago I remember reading something Bill James wrote (possibly the historical almanac) about the shift over time between 3b and 2b in terms of the expectation of offense vs defense. Some of this was before the double play became a central part of the role of 2b, interestingly enough. The perception in, say, the 1920s was that 3b was more demanding defensively, and there was a reversal of what many of us grew up with, in that big sluggers like Rogers Hornsby played 2b and there were more glove guys with lighter bats at third. I believe there is a similar shift in that 3b defense has become more emphasized in recent years, perhaps due to analytics or a shift in talent? (Or the absence of the shift?) Some discussion in this article on the defensive spectrum, much as wikipedia isn't always an ideal source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_spectrum

The OF has collectively been below replacement level, and they didn't really have an obvious lefty dh after losing Yelich, with Bauers seeing more time at first. All of that means this could be a nice little mini window for Black to establish himself. I'd imagine he'd have been up earlier were it not for his own IL trip. I have always been a fan though objectively he has had a rough couple of seasons for various reasons. Seems like Chourio is not too far from hitting again, and the perceived need is for a RHH, but it's not hard to imagine Perkins going down for Chourio if Black does well. Matos should probably clear waivers but who knows. Did anyone see anything to make us want to keep him?

That bunting woodpecker(?) is troubling in so many ways. Is that how he was coached to place his, err, are those wing talons?

You might also look to Pratt's teammate, both last year and this year, Luis Lara. Lara is about three months younger than Pratt. Both had numbers last year that didn't look that great in AA, and there was a sense among some that they had lost their luster as prospects. But they both were slightly above average for the SL, which played as a pitcher's league, and both were nearly four years younger than the league average age. Given their defensive value (I think each has a minor league wide gold glove award), both guys have a high floor, but have been promoted so aggressively that it's hard to get a read on the offense, Lara this year is off to a big start in AAA, of course, and has shown more power than expected in addition to hitting over .340. It's early of course, but it illustrates that young guys with tools and a good approach can take those big leaps forward. Pratt had the contract in the background as well as some injuries and so I don't think it's shocking that he started slowly. Will he ever take that leap like Turang or (so far at least) Lara? It's not too hard to imagine it, but even if not you can make the case for the contract just due to his other skills. This is of course not a rigorous analysis, just a comparison that might give you permission to be optimistic, or at least "wait and see." And of course there is going to be risk taken on by both sides to get a deal like this signed. Pratt might well find himself hugely underpaid, like Freddy Peralta did, or the Brewers might find themselves with little to show.

The Brewers are patient, until they are not. Perhaps of note, the Vinny Capra index, to get a sense of length of leash: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=capravi01&t=b&year=2025 Capra's last Milwaukee appearance of 2025 was his 24th, coming on May 7, when his season OPS hit .250. Joey Ortiz, with a better track record and more defensive value, presumably has at least that long? Rengifo, who knows. It perhaps mattered also that Durbin was 25 years old with an 800 ops in Nashville after a great fall league. If any one of Williams, Pratt, Made, heck, even Adams or Wilken, looked that ready I might take the under on May 7 for Rengifo. No shade on Vinny, who was a fun story and is still better at baseball than 99.9999% of the world.

There's some speculation I've seen that this trend, and this signing in particular, reflects some hedging against changes in the CBA that would impact the current pay progression for young players. I think it's an ok deal with the current system, not a slam dunk for either player or team. (Which is likely the sign of a fair deal?) But if the salaries of young players escalate more quickly in a new contract, it could be huge. I don't think the jealousy described above is an issue at all. I expect that the Brewers have had similar discussions with most of their young major leaguers and many top prospects as well, and most have opted to bet on themselves.

Dorchies is on there at 20. It should also be noted that many teams have those guys, the ones who could have a shot if things break right. We know our guys best but when you semi-follow other teams you'll see the same phenomenon. That's not to say the system isn't deep...I find it heartening to see that aside from Fischer, the highest draft/IFA addition is at 15; the guys already in the system are good enough that new talent to the org needs to prove itself. Contrast that to 2021 when nearly their entire prior year's draft was immediately in the top 20: Mitchell (1), Zamora (8), Warren (11), Hayden Cantrelle (16). (oddly, I suppose, Wiemer was not listed but rocketed up later) Plus IFAs who had yet to debut: Hedbert Perez (3), Quero (9), Medina (13), and Chourio (15).

Worry, don't worry, get mad, whatever. You can't change it. We will all just have to wait and see. The question is whether the Brewers have contingency plans. Our list of possible starters goes deep, but there's not a lot of proven major leaguers yet. Getting to ~800 starting pitcher innings (2025 total, approximately 5 * 162) is a figure of merit, and the Brewers have subtracted two guys (Peralta and Quintana) who combined for 300. Even the guys listed as certainties after Woodruff, namely Miz, Priester and maybe Patrick, have promise but none have long track records of success. Those three guys seem like the best positioned to combine innings and effectiveness; 500 quality innings from the three would already put the '26 team ahead of a lot of recent Brewers squads. Pitching is just uncertain though, and I'd plan for one or more of those guys to have some regression. We've kind of been here before, though. Remember 2019 or so, when Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta were largely unproven with some bullpen success, but they were going to be counted on going forward? Along with guys like Davies and Houser and a bunch of vets that I didn't even remember: Chacin? Chase Anderson? The lesson is that they have a plan, but are prepared to piece things together even if things don't immediately go according to plan. They recovered from Burnes' calamity of a 2019 season and Freddy's growing pains. Surely they knew that setbacks would be possible for Woodruff. The tell will be when (or if) they add a veteran.

I think you're seriously misinterpreting this. Managing the 40 man roster is way more than that. The Brewers do so carefully, and won't add someone before they need to because then they start burning options. It's not easy to move guys off once they are on, and poor choices here can lead to losing flexibility and even having to trade or release a player before you are ready. Understanding the rules regarding rule 5 protection and options are essential to managing the 40 man roster. Since Wilken is first eligible for Rule 5 in December 2026, it's poor management to put him on the 40 man until the moment you need him to be in the big leagues. If he's on the 40, he needs to be optioned in order to be assigned to the minor leagues, and there are only three option years in which that can be done, after which you can lose his rights. With him not on the 40, he can hone his craft in AAA and if he's ready, you make the 40-man move then and there. Not being on the 40 in spring training has nothing to do with how the Brewers regard him. In fact, keeping him off the 40 is done in part because he has some potential value that they don't want to risk losing prematurely.

The Brewers are always going to be acquiring scrap heap guys. There is no amount of farm system success that is likely to change that. Why? Because they have had success with it, and because there will always be a need for complementary players to supplement a team. Many of them will never do more than filling out the AA or AAA roster, but that's also something is needed. People get weird about these signings, and they won't all work, but even scrap heap guys are generally really good baseball players who have a chance to thrive in the right system with the right opportunity. Did anyone jump up and down about Megill or Koenig when they were acquired? Often there are the snarky comments, okay print the World Series tickets now, we got some guy named Blake Perkins. You don't win if all you have are the Blake Perkins of the world, but they can patch holes and a few of them will surprise you. There's very likely one of the minor league signing from this offseason who will play an important role at some point this year. Eddys Leonard? Gerson Garabito? Greg Jones? Who knows. Personally I love to see a guy like that get a chance and run with it. Rengifo is a guy that seemed like a great add two years or so ago. It's just like the Brewers to pick him up after an off year to fill a gap. Maybe he fills the 3b hole all year, maybe he's a platoon bat and IF depth piece, maybe his bat doesn't recover or he has lost a step defensively. He seems like a step down with the glove, unless I've missed something, but then nobody thought Durbin was playable at third and the Brewers made it work. Not much risked, in any event. He's not blocking anyone, and IMO his role is to fill the hole until some of the other options clarify. The Brewers do seem to have a lot of confidence in their ability to construct a roster that looked deeply flawed but then fill holes deep into spring training or even into the regular season. They have been right in many cases, but there's part of me that thinks this sequence of transactions this year might come back to bite them a bit. Hope not, of course. There are enough young infielders coming up that any holes might be only short term, but none of the young guys seem to me very likely to be a quality major leaguer in 2026, save perhaps Jett, and I don't think it's clear whether he fits in the infield at all. In any event Biloxi and Nashville will be interesting viewing this year, and I expect the lineup they end the year with to have some wrinkles that few of us could guess right now. Lots of fighting about Wilken but I don't think anyone knows for sure what to expect of him. Some of the arguments here are more than a bit thin, and just stating that he 'sucks' is the sort of thing that adds zero to any conversation. Fluky injuries, to be sure, and I think it's a win for him to become any kind of hitter after his face injury, much less one of the best in the Southern League. Still, he was essentially repeating AA (neither old nor young for the league, really) and there are big questions about his contact and defense that need to be answered. He was on the MLB list of top 3b prospects, but that list was really thin this year, without a single top 100 prospect. Maybe I'm selling him short, but I don't have him penciled in for substantial major league PAs this year. Honestly, the guys who seem most likely to take the 3b job at some point are all at least a year away (Made, Pena, Fischer). The point is always for the Brewers that you can't be certain that any one of those guys is going to be the guy. It goes for the infielders but the pitchers as well. That's why they just keep adding names to the list: if it's not Black that steps up, maybe it's Wilken, or Adams, or whoever is next in line.

Harrison was not long ago a top 50 or higher prospect, Futures Game guy, really big deal. He's got big league experience but also room to grow, is young, controlled, free agent 2031. I've seen a couple of takes that really like Drohan as a second piece as well. The return is not at all bad, it's just that the major league roster at the moment seems a bit imbalanced. (We already had a bunch of LHP on the 40, though the system as a whole might be a bit thin. The infield configuration seems very unclear for the moment, though there are certainly prospects on the way up.)

Lightning reaction: that's really an odd and surprising trade unless something else is coming. Can make a case for Harrison as a valuable add, and if this was a couple of years ago nobody would believe we got him for so cheap. Brewers tend not to get caught up in last year's numbers and look at long term value.

Given the current emphasis the Brewers place on run prevention, it's unlikely they would see Suarez as an acceptable option at 3b defensively. So I'm not sure Durbin is really the appropriate comparison. There is some reason to believe that past associations mean that the Reds got a deal that Brewers might not have. Apparently the Pirates had a better offer on paper, for example.

The 2020 list is interesting because as much as it's dismissed above, there are two 10+ bWAR careers on there (Turang, Rasmussen), plus Devin Williams who is 8+ and Tyrone Taylor who is close. Ashby has value, and we'd like to think has good years to come. For a bottom of the barrel system with no top 100 guys, there's some value there. Add Lucas Erceg while we are at it (caveats noted here). In addition there's a couple of other decent pitchers in the system at that time that didn't even make the list in Reese Olsen and Bowden Francis. Jeferson Quero is still a top 100 prospect who was very young at the time of the list. (E Garcia still has some hope as well.) It was a weird part of Brewers recent draft history with the likes of Lutz and Joe Gray and Caden Lemons. Hopefully our current approach to prep draftees is more productive. Dismissing some of these guys because they had success elsewhere doesn't make sense to me. If you say Rasmussen didn't help the Brewers, you're ignoring the fact that he was a key part of the Adames trade. And Olsen helped us get ... okay let's dismiss that, after all. Too painful to think about. If the point is simply that taking the current top prospect list and penciling them all into a near-future lineup is a bit silly, well, sure. And yet BA, among others, does it every year. It's a fun exercise that hurts no one. We have a top rated system again, it's ok to dream a bit on a dreary January day.

I don't know that I ever knew that Yost and Brouhard were Rule 5 picks. That's cool. Jeff Bennett was well known for his hat, if I recall correctly? Wei-Chung Wang was a memorable choice as well, though certainly not in terms of WAR.