Cool Hand Lucroy

I don't think anyone is wishing for anything. Most of us recognize that anyone can beat anyone in the playoffs. If anyone is expecting to get the Padres and dominate them, that person is nuts. The same is true for anyone hoping for the Cubs. We don't know what's coming! It's sports! I also don't think anything that happens in this series should alter anyone's preferences. Two (or three, and all these series restart tomorrow no matter what happens today) games don't matter and six innings definitely don't.

San Diego does seem fired up, but how sweet is it to watch PCA leap at the wall, in vain, TWICE in the first inning of a playoff game? For a second, I thought he caught the first one. Had to notice the celebrating bullpen to know it was a homer.

I disagree with you here. I actually think the Cubs have more ways to win. They can score more than the Padres, and they play great defense. The offense can score 6 or 3, and they're in it. The Padres, OTOH, are built to win low-scoring, close games. If their bullpen or starters falter (and give up 3 or 4 runs combined) they are really going to struggle to beat you. If you score 6, they're more than likely toast. If you score 6 against the Cubs, PCA and Bregman might each hit two homers, and you lose anyway. People freak out about bullpens, but really, who has won in October with that as the main strength since the 2014 and 2015 Royals? Give me San Diego all day, and that's not even considering the mental health factor.

Run differential, run differential, run differential. Yes, the Padres have a great bullpen. It's really, really hard to win games that way. We've seen this with the Brewers before. When a team has a hard time scoring runs, their path to victory basically depends on shutting down the opponents for 9 innings. The Brewers have the second-best offense in baseball by RS. I know San Diego has been hot lately, and their offense has been especially good. But I'll go with the body of work and rely on my memories of Josh Hader struggling to close down multiple elimination games to say they're a better matchup. I really don't think a team has bullpenned their way to success since the 2014 and 2015 Royals. I guess the 2018 Brewers qualify too. It's just really hard to do. Especially when you're basically counting on your good but not great starters to go two times through the order clean in the highest pressure situations possible.

Okay, he's out now. Just throwing a side, I guess? Kind of weird, but whatever.

Sorry, I know this is a thread about the Brewers, but...are the Cubs crazy starting Imanaga in a totally meaningless game? They started Holmes Friday. That means neither of those guys is available for Game 1 on full rest? 100 RBI for Turang!!

Yeah, an excellent thing to bring up. The Ueck movie deepened my appreciation for what Christian means in that room and how seriously he takes being a Brewer. Thanks for posting.

Look, there's a pretty clear "pre-Yelich"/"post-Yelich" divide in this century of Brewers baseball. It's obviously not all him, but no one else on the field has been a bigger part of the late 2010s, 2020s Renaissance. We're talking about an MVP here. The Brewers have had four of them in 57 years. We're talking about a guy who played a big role in 6 of the 7 division titles this century. The Brewers have won 9 in the entire history of the franchise. We're talking about the guy who beat the Cubs in Game 163 in 2018, cementing one of the best wins in the history of the team. I think he's more than worthy of this symbolic honor. He's an all-time franchise great, and it's not even a question. I love Geoff Jenkins, but that's a ridiculous comparison. You're talking about a very good player on a lot of terrible teams. It's just not the same. I don't think anyone looks back at Hank Aaron's final year in Milwaukee and says, "Well, he was only worth half a win, so what a joke that was." If they do, maybe baseball just isn't for them...

Looking like the Cubs will avoid the 6 spot. If SD wins, CHC will be locked into the 5. I think that 4/5 series being played out west is preferable from a Brewers perspective. Since the Phillies imminent loss means that 4/5 series will be between the Cubs and the Padres, I'd think we'd all be SD fans today and tomorrow, just to increase travel. Phillies fans may tear down the ballpark if that team doesn't win tomorrow. That would be a collapse. As for the Brewers, ho hum. Another win. I know Dustin May is a lightning rod, but he'll be on the playoff roster. He might start. He probably gets 3 innings in a Game 4 situation or one where we're needing to eat innings. I just don't think it's worth too much concern. The playoffs are enough on an anxiety fest without having to worry about a veteran pitcher with consensus good stuff giving up a couple of runs in the early to middle innings.

Well, if it's bad, Andrew Vaughn may be the playoff third baseman. Those wanting more ABs for him could get the wish in a very Monkey's Paw way.

Just to math out what's at stake today in the NL: Padres magic number to clinch the 4 seed (over Philly and Chicago): 1 (one SD win does it over both; if they lose twice, they need each of Philly and Chicago to lose once) Chicago magic number to clinch the 4 seed: 3 (need to win and see SD lose twice) Phillies magic number to clinch the 4 seed: 5 (CHC lose Sunday, SD lose today and tomorrow, Philly win today and tomorrow). Phillies magic number to clinch a playoff spot (over Arizona): 2 Arizona's magic number to clinch a playoff spot (over Philly): 3 If Arizona and Philly win: All 4 teams are alive and could be seeded anywhere from 4-6 going into Sunday. Arizona, however, could not be the 4, as they'd lose out in a three-way tie with the Padres and Cubs. The Padres would lose out too, but they'd still have the chance to win on Sunday to clinch HFA in the WC round. If SD and Philly win: Phillies clinch a playoff spot. San Diego clinches the 4. Arizona is eliminated, and Chicago would have the 5 seed, unless they lose and the Phillies win on Sunday. If Arizona and Tampa win: Cubs clinch at least the 5 seed. Arizona controls its own destiny for the playoffs. If SD and Tampa win: Padres clinch the 4 seed. Cubs clinch the 5. Phillies control their destiny for the 6. I believe that factors in all tiebreakers. Here's hoping for some final day drama. In the AL, the races are simpler. NYY is the 4. Boston is the 5. Houston holds the tiebreaker over Texas and has a magic number of 2 to clinch the 3. CHW holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland. Guardians have a magic number of 2 to clinch the 2 seed.

Not sure how sarcastic/rhetorical this is (all good no matter the answer), but I thought it was a good question in terms of Sproat, and it got me thinking. Sproat's issue has really been the walks, the inability to harness the stuff and to reset after giving up baserunners or experiencing bad batted ball luck. If this is about "stuff," then it's maybe a good thing, assuming May can command his stuff better, which it seems like he can. On the other hand, if May has Sproat's stuff and better command and still can't get results, maybe we should re-evaluate our assessments of Sproat's talent too. May seems like a one time through the order guy in the postseason to me. That's not a bad guy to have in that role. But, obviously, there's plenty of reason to be concerned. My reason for optimism is this: if the Brewers bullpen continues to pitch this well, all we need is Gasser and May to be serviceable.

I think by far the likeliest scenario is Cubs in SD (winner to MKE) and Philly in ATL. But weird things happen at the end of a long season. Philly seems toast, Arizona seems fired up, and you just never know.

101! Palindromes are fun! Guaranteed 40 over, and the season isn't done! Is that guy who wrote the poems still among us?

Yeah, I think it should be Gasser's ball. May can go once through the order as a piggy-back, maybe? Or just save him for when you need a 4th starter. I guess I think he might be best deployed as a 2-3 inning reliever type.