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MrTPlush

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Everything posted by MrTPlush

  1. MrTPlush
    He will be 29 when he hits FA. Actually, I think the first year of a new contract would be his age 30 season. William Contreras is a classic example of the kind of player the Brewers have wisely just flat out refused to even entertain an extension for. Lucroy was never offered a contract, nor was Hader. We don't need to be handing out big contracts to 30+ year old catchers/relievers.
  2. MrTPlush
    Depends on what the extension is. He has a high floor, but his odds of being at his floor versus an All-Star are WAY higher than it is for a guy in the OF. Not to mention catcher salaries are notably less than most positions. At the start of last year there were only 4 catchers in baseball set to make north of $10mil. Without looking I would have to guess a 'meh' starting catcher propped up by his defense doesn't fair very well in arbitration, hypothetically. 8/$35mil? Plus, two generous option years like Chourio? Even $35mil guaranteed feels like a bit too much for a catcher. Problem with Abner Uribe is the fact he isn't very young...he is pretty old honestly. Any extension would spill into his 30s... relievers are already fickle as it is...let alone at 30+. It would have to be a pretty darn cheap extension with the goal really just hoping to avoid $10mil+ reliever salaries in his arby years.
  3. MrTPlush
    Do you know how many of MLB's premier players come from poor central American backgrounds? Yet almost all of them never sign a cheap extension before or very very early in their MLB careers. I'm actually not sure this logic is as sound as it appears on paper. The average monthly salary is $175 in Venezuela, a guy from there would have more money than he would ever need before he hit arbitration. Even at 3x the average salary, that $200k bonus would last a guy two decades. If Quero's floor is a MLB back-up catcher due to his defense (probably accurate assuming he can at least get near a .700 OPS), then he is already set for life and the next two generations behind him. These early extensions honestly make more sense for someone in the US because a $200k bonus would last you a few years, it would last a few decades in Venezuela.
  4. MrTPlush
    Why does Quero have extension potential? Am I missing some news? I love Quero and I was on the Quero bandwagon way before most...but catching prospects can be pretty darn fickle. There have been plenty of massively hyped can't miss bats from catching prospects that were massive flops. Mike Zunio, Jesus Montero, and Fransisco Mejia come to mind. Just a brutally rough position to make the majors and excel offensively getting beat up day after day. That being said, I can't imagine a trade scenario where I would ship him off. Would have to be much like the Yelich trade.
  5. MrTPlush
    Braun and Yelich both would have made exponentially less had they gone to FA. They signed those extensions here because we were the only team that could offer them. It was sign with the Brewers or make tens of millions less hoping you produce 3 more years. One was probably insuring against getting caught for cheating and the other probably wasn’t feeling confident after a knee injury (or something else, who knows). Regardless, neither wanted to gamble for 3+ years more. I’ll think someone is loyal when they sign an extension like that in FA, not 3+ years prior.
  6. MrTPlush
    Most experts had him tabbed at about $150mil this offseason, probably along the lines of that 7 year length. Of course, that was always a bit iffy considering the last few years before '23. I am guessing the Cubs offer wasn't the highest amount of money. Risking almost $100mil to hope it is a 1/$30mil deal isn't that great for the Cubs. It is like the Hoskins deal on steroids. I would guess he probably could have gotten 6/$108mil+ from someone. The Cubs likely offered and preferred him to take a much longer deal with a lower AAV. If he has another great year, 2023 doesn't seem as fluky and the 21/22 seasons become much more of a blip. 6/$150mil at worst, probably a good chance north of $200mil. He maybe risked $30mil or so for a chance to bank $100mil+ with another good year. For a guy that has already made $60mil in his career and could sign a 1/$30mil contract with a $50mil insurance policy attached to it...not bad.
  7. MrTPlush
    Why would it be a huge mistake? Even if he pops off for a low .800 OPS, he would easily change that 2/$50mil left on his deal to $150mil+. The only reason he didn't get $200mil+ is because of the two terrible years prior to 2023. If he is anything above average, he is going to rip up that deal and get a huge contract. He would STILL be playing a year of a new contract in his 20s. If he opts out, he clearly played well enough to find a big time contract. I agree he won't ever sign for 10 years...but he could easily net a 5-6 year contract...maybe even 7-8 if he repeated close to his '23 numbers.
  8. MrTPlush
    The only people that care about Counsell burning a bridge are Brewers fans....Counsell doesn't care. I don't know why it is still a hot button issue of how much he burned that bridge and comparing to some other city lifers. News flash: Counsell doesn't care.
  9. MrTPlush
  10. MrTPlush
    The deal is terrible from a financial standpoint for performance. If everyone voted on their realistic ceiling for Woodruff in 2025 they would probably tab that around his $17.5mil price tag. Considering the massive risk here and the likelihood he doesn't manage that ceiling, the deal is pretty terrible. We would be lucky to break even. HOWEVER #1 This deal is certainly beyond money. Players are doing circles around the spring training complex about how happy they are to just have Woodruff around. He is an A+ personality to have around...especially around younger players. Fans are mostly ecstatic to pay a guy to collect a check in the dugout. After an offseason that saw Counsell leaving and Burnes being traded...I wouldn't underrate the importance of this. #2 The money is kind of irrelevant from a payroll standpoint. It is the equivalent to the Dodgers overpaying some star. The deal always sucks in the end, but they don't care, their payroll can absorb it like it is nothing. The Brewers payroll the upcoming years is going to absorb this money like it is nothing. If this was like 2019, this would be a different story...but our payroll is in a very different situation these days. The alternative here is spending the money on nothing and Attanasio investing it into a soccer team or something.
  11. MrTPlush
    The only way Woodruff returns in 2026 is if he ends up competent but very back end type starter in 2025. Like bad enough he is only worth like 2/$15mil on the open market MAX. At that point you could find some odd mutual interest where the Brewers figure $10mil over one year isn’t a big deal with some upside and Woodruff feels he was shaking off rust and believes he can be mid rotation or better in 2026 to parlay into a much more lucrative long term deal. It would take the perfect storm of production (not too much not too less), Brewers in a good mood, and Woodruff in a good mood. It isn’t impossible, but it takes some mental gymnastics to even come up with a theory. Even then, it doesn’t change the fact the deal is set up this way to simply space out the money and neither side has any expectation that the mutual option will actually come into play.
  12. MrTPlush
    That article is waaay longer and different than it was this morning. I believe earlier it pretty much said no.
  13. MrTPlush
    I believe it is possible it will still be under the Bally name all year...probably not enough time to figure out the Amazon.com logistics etc.
  14. MrTPlush
    At least we know what was holding it up all this time.
  15. MrTPlush
    Basically never. Nearly every historical example involves a really old player that basically has no interest in going somewhere else (played with one team really long), the option is close enough to market value, and both sides consider it good enough. Brewers have one of the very rare accepted mutual options. That was Aramis Ramirez, who only signed with us because his list of teams he would consider were midwest teams only. So, it made sense for both sides. In the case of Woodruff, it is VERY obvious it exists only to put most of the money in 2026 where our payroll has basically no money committed to it at the moment. There is essentially zero chance Woodruff would be worth $10mil and would not go to FA to get a multi-year deal...probably his only decent chance to get one left.
  16. MrTPlush
    Post-Surgery Pitch Mix: Eephus
  17. MrTPlush
    So you have one of those websites through a hosting site, but it uses their site URL...basically? Whatever the hosting site is should have an option to buy the domain through them or should have a way for you to buy it elsewhere and port it in.
  18. MrTPlush
    Good, 3/4 of those guys shouldn't even be in the conversation to be on the OD roster.
  19. MrTPlush
    No...and I'm not saying it won't lead to anything. Just that I am not going to get super invested and excited until it produces something. Guys change their swing on the daily...he is very far from the only guy in camp repping a revamped swing. His issues are likely far past his swing. Though in his defense, his experience at AAA was pretty limited before his call to the bigs.
  20. MrTPlush
    “Best shape of my life” ”New swing” ”New pitch” Yah…let me know when he actually starts producing. 9/10 the above people end up no better. His swing is less busy…but whether that actually leads to any change remains to be seen. A lot of that is for timing. This new swing can look cool taking 70mph BP heaters, but his timing may suck just as much or worse now.
  21. MrTPlush
    No, we paid Knebel the $5.1mil in arbitration for 2020 after his Tommy John surgery. He then proceeded to hurt his hamstring in that year.
  22. MrTPlush
    Sounds like a nice story…but I’m guessing his rehab so far is basically little to nothing and nothing one can really draw conclusions from. I guess one could be concerned a larger market didn’t try to nab him, but it is more than just money. We have to commit a roster spot to him in ‘25 to start the season. That’s pretty valuable to a team like the Dodgers who can load up on proven/safe bet talent. Banking a roster spot on him just for him to blow is a huge loss. For us, it is a little different as the bottom of our roster is a bit more of a revolving door . I do think the Brewers were by far his preferred landing spot, so that might have played a role in his decision.
  23. MrTPlush
    Do you think the Brewers, a small market, would sign Woodruff (a guy who won’t pitch all year) to anything that would limit their ability to do anything in ‘24 or ‘25? This isn’t a 5+ year deal, nor is it tens of millions of dollars. This is like when we signed Neftali Feliz to $5mil or gave Hiura millions to never see the MLB roster. A total waste of money, but it really did nothing in the grand scheme. It’s not something that is going to cause other moves not to happen if they come up. Our payroll is already much lower than last year and ‘25 figures to be even lower…even if we made some kind of FA splash. Right now I don’t think we have $50mil in salaries for ‘25 if you assume Devin Williams is a stretch to return. The Brewers would have to go on a shopping spree next winter to get a $100mil payroll, let alone one anywhere near an amount that would cause financial concerns for the payroll.
  24. MrTPlush
    Honestly, there isn’t any downside here. #1 It is a one year deal (basically) and our payroll is not that high in 2025. There is basically no way it would stop if from making any other move, either long or short term. #2 I am pretty confident this move was largely pushed by Mark Attanasio opening his wallet to give the green light. Even if we gave him $20mil for ‘25, it just really affects nothing for the payroll or how we can compete. If he blows, Attanasio’s bank account is the only thing taking a hit.
  25. MrTPlush
    Meh, at face value it will be. I am optimistic they will change it a bit to reflect college play-style though. I would imagine there is a dedicated team creating this game, so in that sense...it should create some decent differences. Either way I won't care too much. I usually just play an outdated Madden on game pass and I imagine this will be similar.
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