MKE81

Agree on all points

Anybody who's traveled to the DR, or even Jamaica for that matter, understand the roads are terrible and the drivers are even worse. That's without alcohol in the mix. Enjoyed watching him pitch

It annoys me that people think Susac is a platoon catcher and shouldn't be given the chance to start full time. Give him Wieters AB totals and he'll put up better offensive numbers. Wieters had a 87 OPS+ last year and is actually 1pt below Susac in terms of MLB career (baseball reference) and 8pts below on everyone's beloved Fangraphs. And Susac is 4yrs younger. He's also capable of throwing out 30% of runners and being average on defense. Susac doesn't need a platoon he needs an opportunity to prove he's a full time starter and he would have already had it in SF if not for Posey. Susac, Pina, Bandy = set at catcher unless they all fall on their faces (won't happen). People need to get off the "sign and flip" bandwagon - it doesn't apply to every available opening.

I'm indifferent. You are not signing him to turn him into a prospect in July. Therefore he is just taking innings from a younger guy. What young relievers is he blocking? I don't buy into Feliz "blocking" the young guys from "high leverage innings" but I can understand it. But I don't see Chamberlain taking any innings away from anyone. He's probably a 6th innng/we're losing pitcher ala Boyer last year. My first thought was exactly this. The guys I view as "young pen arms" are Barnes (this is his first full year), Knebel, Magnifico. They're not getting blocked. Barnes, Knebel already have spots locked. Magnifico still has to earn his but I'm banking on him making it. The Brewers could technically run with 4 backup position players and 8 pen arms too. This is a good sign, per usual by Stearns, with nothing but upside. There's no risk

The fan scouting reports on Fangraphs (I KNOW FANGRAPHS OMG HOW CLICHE) seem to indicate a decline in defensive ability for Pagan over the past few years. His overall grades since 2013: 60, 55, 39, 32. He's also 35 going on 36, and missed a lot of time due to injury in 2013-2014, so it's not difficult to think that decline in grading might have some merit. He never had a great arm, and he's certainly not as fast as he was at his peak with the Mets a half dozen years ago. He was at one point a good defender, but once being a good defender playing on a generally strong defensive team does not make him a good defender at present. Just because there's a decline in defensive ability doesn't mean he's not fine defensively. And you speak as if he wasn't with the Giants last year starting for them. Fangraphs defensive modeling is completely and utterly pointless. They don't even adjust based on defensive shifts, which are insanely common in today's game. There are several variables that make-up one's defensive ability that cannot be measured analytically. So continue to cite defensive WAR as if it's a hard selling point. All this is moot given Pagan doesn't come close to fitting a need and doesn't make any sense.

Wilkerson? Burgos? There are 6 rotation arms right now. If half are traded that leaves 2 openings - Hader, Lopez, Milone, Jungmann are all taking a spot over those guys

Nothing that is why all teams still heavily do it. However if you think that's all you need you are going to fail. The eye test also doesn't work on this forum because none of us are professional scouts and when comparing players unless both play for the Brewers we don't watch them enough to make a accurate conclusion. Statistics are better to accurately decide the value a player has or will provide in the future. Correct regarding analytics having a place and must be used in combination with the eye test otherwise you're playing at a huge disadvantage. But you have no idea how much baseball I watch or who I watch let alone anybody else on this board. Also, the eye test doesn't work on this board because none of us are scouts? I've already established you fall in that category so not shocked that you would lump everyone else on this board with you because heaven forbid someone actually understands the game better than you. One doesn't need to be a professional scout to have a relatively deep knowledge of the game, strategy, mechanical breakdowns/technical aspects and the intricacies involved on both sides of the ball. Everyone's upbringing around the game is different - we learn from different people and sources - players and coaches at various levels, opponents, camps, family, friends, playing experience, etc. (I played college and have played with and against all levels up to ex-MLB and I've also coached little league, travel ball and HS). Other people just love the game and learn whatever it is they did from their little league/HS coaches/family/friends and from watching games so they don't have the in-depth knowledge of someone who's been exposed to it at a higher level. Scouts don't watch players a thousand times before understanding what their strengths/weaknesses are and identifying red/yellow flags. They maybe watch them 5-10x before official grading but they already have an idea by the 2nd-3rd time they've seen them because they understand the aspects of the game I listed above.

Considering Hoffman is a closer and the others are starters why even compare them? However, Hoffman has a significantly better ERA than Mussina as well as a better WHIP, H9, K9 and both had great control. Hoffman is 2nd on saves list and next closest is 123 behind him. Hoffman +2 in AS nods, +1 in CY runner-up (twice), 2x finished top 10 in MVP to Mussina 0. Mussina had an ERA north of 4 in 4 of his final 9yrs and never made one AS game over that span. Mussina won numerous GG but closers will never win those anyway

Ah, didn't see your reference to Jon Gray earlier. That said, I think MKE81's comment was in response to A Swing and A Drive's earlier comment that "Sonny Gray has a higher talent ceiling than ANY pitcher currently in the Brewers system". THIS!! It was in reference to the Sonny quote. I didn't even see your Jon Gray post before I submitted my post but I agree with your Jon Gray example given I said the same thing. I just wouldn't trade prospects for him I'd trade Villar and acquire someone better than Jon Gray given we'll have Dubon and Diaz, which can make Villar a great trade piece for a TOR controllable young arm. I'd prefer to trade away our established MLB young players to acquire a Jon Gray or better as if you can keep the pipeline stocked then you have internal backfills every step of the way, which in turn, keeps payroll low allowing for flexibility if need to drop money on 1-2 key players in FA

I agree with Jericho's Ninja regarding Garza. He's a lock and I think it should be obvious he is unless he's traded, obviously. He has 1yr remaining on his contract so final time as trade bait given he's pitched 10yrs in MLB with a 8yr track record of success and consistency. 2015 was bad (and I believe he was injured part of it too) and last year he was injured to start the year missing the first 2.5 months then finished with a 3.64 ERA his final 11 starts (in line with his career norms). Of his 19 starts 3 were terrible. The other 16 (84% of his starts) he posted a 3.41 ERA. The problem with Garza is when he has a terrible start it's REALLY bad, which is why his ERA rises drastically. When he's healthy he pitches well and his track record says so. You don't waive guys like that so 3 other players with options and worse careers can start.

I think one of the top 6 rotation arms is traded heading into spring and we know Garza is gone at some point. Milone sticks in the pen as long reliever/5-6th inning guy/spot starter. If someone is traded by the break, which seems likely, then Hader is up getting his feet wet. I'd like to see Lopez in the pen to avoid him being in AAA but also don't think it serves him well being back in AA. I think Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Chase are in the rotation the entire year. If Peralta bounces back I see him being traded as has 2yrs left. Heading into 2018 it could look like Hader, Woodruff, Davies, Nelson, Chase + Lopez/Milone. Nelson/Chase traded during or after the season means there's still 2-2.5yrs of control left for them and their spots are filled by Ortiz (if ready), Lopez, Milone. I don't think Nelson, Peralta, Chase are traded immediately if they bounce back because this team still needs experienced starters with some ability until all the youngsters are up. And Hader/Woodruff aren't cemented in the rotation until the start of 2018 followed by Ortiz the following year. With Davies already up this is 4 very good young rotation arms. But we still need arms with ability to hold us over until those points.

If Guerra's first half even remotely closely mirrors last season he won't come close to bringing a Top 20 overall. If you even get a Top 100 label offer I'd snatch it immediately and not look back (or someone like Dubon - not Top 100 but very good all-around skill set). He'll certainly bring back a better haul than Straily. Castillo is 24 (their #5 prospect) and only has 14ip in AA. Brice (#9) is 24 and has had stints of effectiveness but he's a better pen arm than rotation. He was 23/24 last year throwing almost 100 innings in AA. White (#16) brings great defense and huge speed in CF (and on bases) and pretty much nothing else at this point but he's 21 next year. The Marlins system is horrendous. The sad part is Straily's limited 2012 and full 2013/2016 seasons are better than Nelson, Peralta, Chase in terms of ERA, WHIP, H9, BB9, K9

Or because his WHIP, ERA, H9, K9 are all great combined with his stuff, age, level. His BB9 is good enough as well - around 3 past few years at A, A+, AA. Hader could just as well be ranked 1 in our system ahead of Brinson (should definitely be ahead of Ray)

I prefer to look at what they do VS Starters as opposed to VS Lefties overall given the vast, vast majority of ABs are against starters where he get a chance to see them multiple times. Mostly everyone does worse against pen arms regardless of who they face and which side of the plate they're on

Yes he will sit often vs lefties unless he hits them early on. That's precisely where Perez will get many of his at bats unless an injury on the infield forces Perez into a starting role elsewhere. Arcia and Villar are going to play pretty much everyday assuming good health. Same for Thames. Counsell isn't going to have Perez locked to the bench and thirdbase is his best position. So unless Shaw hits lefties so well that it forces Counsell to play him everyday, i see it ending up being a soft to strict platoon at third. Early on? So Shaw has a short leash? Perez is a backup. He fills in for injuries, days off and trades. If everyone is healthy and not falling on their face for an extended period of time then he's not playing. It's that simple. You don't take ABs away from more talented players because your super utility is good at being versatile. 3b isn't Perez's best position either - it's just the position that allowed him to play more games because Segura/Villar + Scooter occupied the middle spots and Aramis/Hill were traded at the break opening a spot for him. Stearns traded Thornburg for a MLB starting 3b, not a platoon player. Shaw has slashed 279/337/889 vs LH Starters (far superior to Perez). Even though he struggled last year vs them he's clearly had success, which means his ability to repeat is there. There are plenty of people who aren't high on Shaw in general and a lot of people point to his collapse the final 2 months as being troubling. Yet these same people love the production from Perez last year. So explain how that's the case when Shaw's wRC+ and wOBA were 2pts below Perez with his ISO 23pts higher, walk rate was twice as good and his WAR was .3 better? Shaw's 2015 destroys Perez last year. Shaw is better. There is no platoon. Perez will certainly get some time at 3b but make no mistake about it that's Shaw's position