MKE81

Agree on all points

Anybody who's traveled to the DR, or even Jamaica for that matter, understand the roads are terrible and the drivers are even worse. That's without alcohol in the mix. Enjoyed watching him pitch

It annoys me that people think Susac is a platoon catcher and shouldn't be given the chance to start full time. Give him Wieters AB totals and he'll put up better offensive numbers. Wieters had a 87 OPS+ last year and is actually 1pt below Susac in terms of MLB career (baseball reference) and 8pts below on everyone's beloved Fangraphs. And Susac is 4yrs younger. He's also capable of throwing out 30% of runners and being average on defense. Susac doesn't need a platoon he needs an opportunity to prove he's a full time starter and he would have already had it in SF if not for Posey. Susac, Pina, Bandy = set at catcher unless they all fall on their faces (won't happen). People need to get off the "sign and flip" bandwagon - it doesn't apply to every available opening.

I'm indifferent. You are not signing him to turn him into a prospect in July. Therefore he is just taking innings from a younger guy. What young relievers is he blocking? I don't buy into Feliz "blocking" the young guys from "high leverage innings" but I can understand it. But I don't see Chamberlain taking any innings away from anyone. He's probably a 6th innng/we're losing pitcher ala Boyer last year. My first thought was exactly this. The guys I view as "young pen arms" are Barnes (this is his first full year), Knebel, Magnifico. They're not getting blocked. Barnes, Knebel already have spots locked. Magnifico still has to earn his but I'm banking on him making it. The Brewers could technically run with 4 backup position players and 8 pen arms too. This is a good sign, per usual by Stearns, with nothing but upside. There's no risk

The fan scouting reports on Fangraphs (I KNOW FANGRAPHS OMG HOW CLICHE) seem to indicate a decline in defensive ability for Pagan over the past few years. His overall grades since 2013: 60, 55, 39, 32. He's also 35 going on 36, and missed a lot of time due to injury in 2013-2014, so it's not difficult to think that decline in grading might have some merit. He never had a great arm, and he's certainly not as fast as he was at his peak with the Mets a half dozen years ago. He was at one point a good defender, but once being a good defender playing on a generally strong defensive team does not make him a good defender at present. Just because there's a decline in defensive ability doesn't mean he's not fine defensively. And you speak as if he wasn't with the Giants last year starting for them. Fangraphs defensive modeling is completely and utterly pointless. They don't even adjust based on defensive shifts, which are insanely common in today's game. There are several variables that make-up one's defensive ability that cannot be measured analytically. So continue to cite defensive WAR as if it's a hard selling point. All this is moot given Pagan doesn't come close to fitting a need and doesn't make any sense.

Wilkerson? Burgos? There are 6 rotation arms right now. If half are traded that leaves 2 openings - Hader, Lopez, Milone, Jungmann are all taking a spot over those guys

Nothing that is why all teams still heavily do it. However if you think that's all you need you are going to fail. The eye test also doesn't work on this forum because none of us are professional scouts and when comparing players unless both play for the Brewers we don't watch them enough to make a accurate conclusion. Statistics are better to accurately decide the value a player has or will provide in the future. Correct regarding analytics having a place and must be used in combination with the eye test otherwise you're playing at a huge disadvantage. But you have no idea how much baseball I watch or who I watch let alone anybody else on this board. Also, the eye test doesn't work on this board because none of us are scouts? I've already established you fall in that category so not shocked that you would lump everyone else on this board with you because heaven forbid someone actually understands the game better than you. One doesn't need to be a professional scout to have a relatively deep knowledge of the game, strategy, mechanical breakdowns/technical aspects and the intricacies involved on both sides of the ball. Everyone's upbringing around the game is different - we learn from different people and sources - players and coaches at various levels, opponents, camps, family, friends, playing experience, etc. (I played college and have played with and against all levels up to ex-MLB and I've also coached little league, travel ball and HS). Other people just love the game and learn whatever it is they did from their little league/HS coaches/family/friends and from watching games so they don't have the in-depth knowledge of someone who's been exposed to it at a higher level. Scouts don't watch players a thousand times before understanding what their strengths/weaknesses are and identifying red/yellow flags. They maybe watch them 5-10x before official grading but they already have an idea by the 2nd-3rd time they've seen them because they understand the aspects of the game I listed above.

Considering Hoffman is a closer and the others are starters why even compare them? However, Hoffman has a significantly better ERA than Mussina as well as a better WHIP, H9, K9 and both had great control. Hoffman is 2nd on saves list and next closest is 123 behind him. Hoffman +2 in AS nods, +1 in CY runner-up (twice), 2x finished top 10 in MVP to Mussina 0. Mussina had an ERA north of 4 in 4 of his final 9yrs and never made one AS game over that span. Mussina won numerous GG but closers will never win those anyway

Ah, didn't see your reference to Jon Gray earlier. That said, I think MKE81's comment was in response to A Swing and A Drive's earlier comment that "Sonny Gray has a higher talent ceiling than ANY pitcher currently in the Brewers system". THIS!! It was in reference to the Sonny quote. I didn't even see your Jon Gray post before I submitted my post but I agree with your Jon Gray example given I said the same thing. I just wouldn't trade prospects for him I'd trade Villar and acquire someone better than Jon Gray given we'll have Dubon and Diaz, which can make Villar a great trade piece for a TOR controllable young arm. I'd prefer to trade away our established MLB young players to acquire a Jon Gray or better as if you can keep the pipeline stocked then you have internal backfills every step of the way, which in turn, keeps payroll low allowing for flexibility if need to drop money on 1-2 key players in FA

I agree with Jericho's Ninja regarding Garza. He's a lock and I think it should be obvious he is unless he's traded, obviously. He has 1yr remaining on his contract so final time as trade bait given he's pitched 10yrs in MLB with a 8yr track record of success and consistency. 2015 was bad (and I believe he was injured part of it too) and last year he was injured to start the year missing the first 2.5 months then finished with a 3.64 ERA his final 11 starts (in line with his career norms). Of his 19 starts 3 were terrible. The other 16 (84% of his starts) he posted a 3.41 ERA. The problem with Garza is when he has a terrible start it's REALLY bad, which is why his ERA rises drastically. When he's healthy he pitches well and his track record says so. You don't waive guys like that so 3 other players with options and worse careers can start.

I think one of the top 6 rotation arms is traded heading into spring and we know Garza is gone at some point. Milone sticks in the pen as long reliever/5-6th inning guy/spot starter. If someone is traded by the break, which seems likely, then Hader is up getting his feet wet. I'd like to see Lopez in the pen to avoid him being in AAA but also don't think it serves him well being back in AA. I think Davies, Nelson, Peralta, Chase are in the rotation the entire year. If Peralta bounces back I see him being traded as has 2yrs left. Heading into 2018 it could look like Hader, Woodruff, Davies, Nelson, Chase + Lopez/Milone. Nelson/Chase traded during or after the season means there's still 2-2.5yrs of control left for them and their spots are filled by Ortiz (if ready), Lopez, Milone. I don't think Nelson, Peralta, Chase are traded immediately if they bounce back because this team still needs experienced starters with some ability until all the youngsters are up. And Hader/Woodruff aren't cemented in the rotation until the start of 2018 followed by Ortiz the following year. With Davies already up this is 4 very good young rotation arms. But we still need arms with ability to hold us over until those points.

If Guerra's first half even remotely closely mirrors last season he won't come close to bringing a Top 20 overall. If you even get a Top 100 label offer I'd snatch it immediately and not look back (or someone like Dubon - not Top 100 but very good all-around skill set). He'll certainly bring back a better haul than Straily. Castillo is 24 (their #5 prospect) and only has 14ip in AA. Brice (#9) is 24 and has had stints of effectiveness but he's a better pen arm than rotation. He was 23/24 last year throwing almost 100 innings in AA. White (#16) brings great defense and huge speed in CF (and on bases) and pretty much nothing else at this point but he's 21 next year. The Marlins system is horrendous. The sad part is Straily's limited 2012 and full 2013/2016 seasons are better than Nelson, Peralta, Chase in terms of ERA, WHIP, H9, BB9, K9

Or because his WHIP, ERA, H9, K9 are all great combined with his stuff, age, level. His BB9 is good enough as well - around 3 past few years at A, A+, AA. Hader could just as well be ranked 1 in our system ahead of Brinson (should definitely be ahead of Ray)

I prefer to look at what they do VS Starters as opposed to VS Lefties overall given the vast, vast majority of ABs are against starters where he get a chance to see them multiple times. Mostly everyone does worse against pen arms regardless of who they face and which side of the plate they're on

Yes he will sit often vs lefties unless he hits them early on. That's precisely where Perez will get many of his at bats unless an injury on the infield forces Perez into a starting role elsewhere. Arcia and Villar are going to play pretty much everyday assuming good health. Same for Thames. Counsell isn't going to have Perez locked to the bench and thirdbase is his best position. So unless Shaw hits lefties so well that it forces Counsell to play him everyday, i see it ending up being a soft to strict platoon at third. Early on? So Shaw has a short leash? Perez is a backup. He fills in for injuries, days off and trades. If everyone is healthy and not falling on their face for an extended period of time then he's not playing. It's that simple. You don't take ABs away from more talented players because your super utility is good at being versatile. 3b isn't Perez's best position either - it's just the position that allowed him to play more games because Segura/Villar + Scooter occupied the middle spots and Aramis/Hill were traded at the break opening a spot for him. Stearns traded Thornburg for a MLB starting 3b, not a platoon player. Shaw has slashed 279/337/889 vs LH Starters (far superior to Perez). Even though he struggled last year vs them he's clearly had success, which means his ability to repeat is there. There are plenty of people who aren't high on Shaw in general and a lot of people point to his collapse the final 2 months as being troubling. Yet these same people love the production from Perez last year. So explain how that's the case when Shaw's wRC+ and wOBA were 2pts below Perez with his ISO 23pts higher, walk rate was twice as good and his WAR was .3 better? Shaw's 2015 destroys Perez last year. Shaw is better. There is no platoon. Perez will certainly get some time at 3b but make no mistake about it that's Shaw's position

I disagree that Gray is better than anyone in our system's ceiling. Hader can be just as good. His A (2013), A+ (2014), AA (2015/2016) WHIP, H9, BB9, SO9 rival Gray. Similar WHIP and H9 with Gray having a better BB9 and Hader SO9. ERA being 2.7 - 3 for Hader. Age/level are all relative. Hader will be 23 this year and at that age Gray had 11-12 starts that first season so we'll see what Hader can put up away from CS. We aren't making the playoffs in 2017/2018 and Gray's a FA after 2019 so what's the rationale for trading away a package of prospects to acquire this pitcher? He doesn't help us when it's most needed. That's what it should come down too If I'm Stearns I make my move at the break in 2018 or 2019 when I trade Villar. I know he doesn't like packaging players but if it takes adding to Villar to bring back a young stud rotation arm with 5yrs control then so be it. That's the trade trip I use for the big arm as it should keep all the top prospects in place. Although I'm also for signing a FA depending who, age, contract, etc. If the crowded OF makes great strides they'll also be worth good returns

Shaw is averaging 21HR per 500 AB while playing half his games in one of the worst parks for left handed power. And still managed to have equal home/away HR splits. The power is real and I think he's for sure in the 20-25HR area with the potential to hit a few more posting a slash line more in line to his 2015. He's also not sitting vs lefties. He was terrible last year vs lefties but absolutely destroyed them 2yrs ago. The ability is there. Shaw will bat 6 as Thames is a better overall hitter and is more patient with better bat to ball skills. When guys have a day off he can easily slide into the 4-5 hole for a game here and there. He's also going to play good defense at 3b.

He was injured at some point in June I believe and ultimately shut down for the season at the end of July or beginning of Aug. His April/May slash line was 315/368/954 with 39 runs, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 10HR, 40rbi, 5 SB - that was spanning 48 games. This is in line with his seasons in A and A+ the previous 2yrs but with a slightly lower OBP but higher OPS. BA is spot on

Agree with the above. Additionally, I don't think people are writing off this team being competitive, generally speaking, rather strictly in terms of being playoff contenders. This won't happen even if the rotation gets back to their potential. Cubs will win around 100. Nationals, Dodgers, Giants should all make the playoffs. Then you have the Mets, Cardinals. If everything stayed equal we'd have to win an additional 15 games to steal a wild card spot. I'm not shocked to hear good articles about Santana or Broxton having elite exit speed as well as what their potential is. I've long been a huge Santana supporter, and defender, on here. I firmly stated Broxton will carry over his 2nd half moving forward as lowering the bat was a game changer for him allowing greater, and more consistent, power. His confidence was glowing, his body language was that of a season vet instead of a scared, timid MLB debut player when he started the season. The key to both of their success is health.

I agree with this. The most annoying part for me is the CBs aren't getting physical at the line. The defense was great 6-7yrs ago because our CBs were bump and run every play instead of playing 7yds off. The entire secondary right now is also very young, including our LB core with Ryan, Blake. Tackling has been an issue with this team for years as well. They never properly tackle anyone.

They had a great, GREAT player at every level in 2010. Rod Woodson, Nick Collins, Clay Matthews (playing at his absolute peak. Cullen Jenkins playing havoc on the line. Is it fair to say Capers got "lucky"? I don't know, but there was pro-bowl talent at every level. (Not directing this next bit at anyone in particular) The thing is, every year our defense struggles to cover the pass, cover the middle of the field, and stop teams from scoring (we've been pretty mediocre since 2010) and it seems that a very vocal part of the fan-base wants to say "Injuries!" Look, this is the NFL. EVERY TEAM PLAYS THROUGH INJURIES. Find me a team that doesn't. It just doesn't happen. For the Packers, the problem is compounded badly when Thompson refuses to plug holes. How many games did we play this year without a true running back? You can't just say "Injuries!" over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over in the NFL like it's an actual valid excuse for 6 years running. There have been times the Patriots used WR's for DB's. There were times that Tom Brady's top targets were Deion Branch and David Givens! (WHO????) You play on! That's the NFL. Next man up. If someone is in the NFL, whether they're a First rounder, or a practice squad guy, we have to assume they have SOME kind of talent and ability to play, and be out on the field. No, some UDFA practice squad guy is probably not as good as the first rounder, but he's still probably here in the NFL for a reason, he's still more athletic and talented and physically gifted than 99.5% of all the people out there. NE is playing without Gronk right now. I mean, look at ANY teams injury report, and you'll see no less than 8 - 10 guys or more. Do Packer fans really think the Packers are the only team to play through tough injuries? Atlanta has 11 guys on their injury report right now. NE has 9 guys. Packers have 12. The Steelers have 14!! I wonder if their fans use the injury excuse as much as ours do. Saying every team plays through injuries is extremely simple minded. So if you like that approach then stick with it. Injury reports? Stop it. Brady is on it every week and he's never injured. Gronk is out? Yeah, so is Jordy. D. Branch WHO??? Yeah, I've heard of that SB MVP before!! WR shifting to CB is one of the easiest transitions you can make especially if they've played it at some point in their careers. The fact you're asking how the Pats win when Brady doesn't have WR names proves your football IQ, or lack therefore. Why did Cassel go 11-5 in Brady's absence? Why did Jimmy start the season 3-1 this year in Brady's absence? Outside of Moss why have the Patriots basically had small, quick twitch WRs the past 12yrs??? BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT FITS THEIR SCHEME. When Brady isn't throwing to Moss or Gronk he's throwing to this profile WR or his RB (white, lewis, etc) on short routes letting them do the work. Name another playoff caliber team with the following injuries - Lacy missed 11wks. Starks missed 7wks. Name another team that had a WR as their #1 RB for half a season because their top 2 were injured? Cook missed 6wks. Cobb missed 3wks. Shields missed 15wks. Clay missed 4wks. Randall missed 6wks. Rollins missed 3-4wks. Ryan missed 2 games but was injured for 4 others and didn't even start. Blake missed 3wks and didn't start in 4 others even though he played because he was still injured. Fackrell missed 3wks. Elliott missed 5wks. Yeah, sounds like the typical season for everyone having a dozen starters (or contributors) miss a month each. The first game of the losing streak was against ATL (lost 33-32) and Ripkowski was the leading rusher not named Rodgers. No Cook, Cobb, Ty, Shields, Randall, Rollins, Clay.

I hear ya. I'm on board with you regarding a FA signing vs trading for a Gray type. No reason in giving up top prospects when we don't know how our other top prospects are going to perform once they hit MLB. Plus the payroll is very low then too. It makes more sense to sign a FA. I think the media is expecting 2020 at the earliest but I think 2019 makes the most sense in signing a FA pitcher. In 2018 I'm expecting Hader, Woodruff, Davies + 2 (ie Nelson, Peralta, Chase, Milone?) - which is why I'm not expecting a FA signing then

Context matters. Thanks for posting this. Reminds me of Phillips - if you look up his rankings within his league last year he performed rather well. But if you look at his overall numbers on the surface there wouldn't be many positives to draw from it

Stop solely looking at numbers and watch him play, even if it's whatever youtube videos you can find. His athleticism is highly praised (not just us but in TX too) and it's not talked about much but his bat to ball skills are pretty darn good. There's a reason he was ranked in the Rangers Top 10 and that was prior to us acquiring Brinson/Ortiz and them getting rid of another top prospect. He has 20HR power with plus speed. At age level for A, A+ he put up excellent numbers. Last year he was playing with injuries all season and still put up decent numbers in 400 AB. He plays good defense and is versatile playing all 3 spots. He's a late bloomer and at age level every step so he's not going to get as much love as the other OF prospects. Doesn't negate his talent though. Worst case I see him as a 4th OF that can back up all spots and perform well, which makes him very valuable. I personally think he has starter ability.

"everyone" thought it was too early to sign Lester? He was signed for 6yrs. Even if they didn't make the playoffs in 2015 he's there for 5yrs of all the young guys best years. They already had Montero, Rizzo, Castro, Coghlin, Fowler as starters. 5/8 position players were established players. Arrietta, Hammel, Hendricks (coming off first year under his belt), Haren/Wood took up 4 rotation spots and were established players. Bryant, Russell, Soler/Schwarber filled the other spots. Bryant is Braun 2.0 so he doesn't even count - it was essentially guaranteed he was going to produce at a high level right away. So they were really only left with 2 position spots that were rookies and Russell was giving you very good defense regardless of what he did offensively. The Brewers aren't close to this right now so this logic can't be applied to a Gray type right now or next year. The only established MLB position player we have is Braun and he might be traded. Shaw has a couple years. Villar just played first full season although has enough ABs over previous 3yrs to count toward another full season). Arcia/Broxton/Santana/Susac haven't played a full season yet and Thames hasn't been in MLB in 4yrs. Arrietta, Hammel, Hendricks, Haren/Wood as a unit are much better than what the Brewers have and chances are pretty good that most, if not all, of Nelson, Guerra, Peralta, Chase, Garza won't be here by the end of 2018. Lester was a FA - they didn't give up top prospects for him. If Ray is performing you need to see if your other OF prospects are panning out (Brinson, Phillips, Cordell + Santana/Broxton) before just trading for a Gray type. 2017/2018 will be more competitive than 2016 with more internal . Heading into 2019 looks like Braun, Brinson (1yr+ experience), Phillips (1), Shaw (4), Arcia (2.5), Villar (4), Thames (2), Susac (2.5) with a rotation of Hader (1.5), Woodruff (1), Davies (3), Ortiz (1.5), Bickford (0 - I'd like him as closer) - Dubon will be up by then and it's possible Nottingham is up. Ray, Diaz might be up by year's end. All of which makes us even younger than we already would be. Given the youth movement and the Brewers expected low payroll, once 2019 comes around it makes sense to sign a top of rotation arm for 4-5yrs while filling in veterans as backups and pen arms. 2020 you can trade Davies and sign another FA pitcher. I see Stearns taking the same approach he's had the past year when it comes to everyone else. Villar was signed as SS but everyone knew he was going to 2b this year since Arcia was on the brink of coming up so he acquires Diaz. We'll need protection for starting or a high quality reliever so acquired Dubon. It's going to be a recycle process. Once all these prospects come up and perform they'll get traded for the next wave. Keep pay roll low and always stay young but use what money their is for key FA acquisitions.