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UMBrewer

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Everything posted by UMBrewer

  1. UMBrewer
    I am amazed at the love affair with Hihg upside guys but not yet proven as the centerpiece in these trade talks. I would always be shooting for best guy you can get as the center piece (Frazier/Zimmer, or Devers or in the case of the Braves, Ozzie Albies) and THEN you get that guy you are talking about as the last piece lottery pick. Demeritte and McKenzie are the last pieces before the throw in, not the center piece of a trade for an all star catcher with a cheap contract and a year plus of control. Those types of guys are very nice to recieve, but niether should be the centerpiece of the Lucroy trade if it were to happen.
  2. UMBrewer
    I think you are selling Rosario short at the expense of perhaps over evaluating Arcia. Rosario is currently BA's #18 mid season prospect and Arcia #14. Arcia is "slipping" a bit with the bat, while Rosario is breaking out. the big difference between the two is that Arcia has a bit more range, can make the flashy play, but reports are that Rosario has the arm, range and speed to play a good SS. I think I would almost rather have Rosario.....he is improving dramatically as he advances through the minor leagues and is the same age along the scale as Arcia is/was, while Arcia is "holding his own" with the bat. Do you want the Gold Glove Shortstop with average offense, or the average shortstop with an above average bat?
  3. UMBrewer
    I love looking at the value of the veterans being traded and trying to determine the prospects coming back in trades like this. Amazing thing about this sort of transaction is the perceived value on both ends. I calculated today that Chris Sale's surplus value isnt too much horribly higher than Lucroy's is. I figure Lucroy is at about $37 million, but Sale is $52 million. Which is just one more nice prospect that the White Sox could expect back in a trade compared with Lucroy. Now Sale is worthy of one of those top 10 guys. I dont think the Rangers can pull it off, but if the Red Sox really wanted him they could offer Beinintendi, Kopech and Chavis and they would have another ace level starter on their hands. the Sox desire for 5 elite prospects in return would be way too much.
  4. UMBrewer
    Rosario can easily be moved over to 2B. I think that would be a pretty nice deal even though I agree on the pitching aspect. You flip TDA in 3 years when contending time comes around. He was projected for 4+ WAR type of years for the next 3 before his injury this season before he got hurt. Throw in the MP factor and you have a really nice player. You also get a big bat middle infielder, who is as good, or better than Arcia, and you get a prototypical big bat 1B in Smith. And Cecchini is at worst a league average 3B option for the next 6 years.
  5. UMBrewer
    Of course hindsight is 20/20, but I was screaming for Lucroy to be dealt at this time last year. This whole NTC issue, and the underwhelming return issue, and the number of suitors could all be a moot point if this had been all resolved in July of 2015. The reason why it didnt lies directly in MA's lap. Heck, they could have traded him before 2015 as well and then gotten a monster return for him. Everyone knew the team was going to have to rebuild.
  6. UMBrewer
    I would hate not getting a premium arm in return for Lucroy if they dealt with the Mets. But a package of Rosario, Smith and Nimmo gets the job done. Rosario becomes the future big bat 2B, Smith fits at 1B and Nimmo can play a corner OF to go along with Phillips. The lack of a big arm coming back would be a failure on Stearns' behalf, and if the reports are true, it will be because he was asking for too much in return.
  7. UMBrewer
    I know about the Cashner deal, what was the other one? I posted yesterday about the Indians haul, I think if its the Red Sox we could get Devers, Kopech and Sam Travis and maybe Trey Ball as a throw in.
  8. UMBrewer
    I had to look up Greg Allen. Seems to be a nice player and is basically playing at every level thus far near his age level but given the other talents in the Indians system (Bradley, Mejia, McKenzie, Hillman, etc) combined with us already having Ray, Clark playing A/A+ while being 2-4yrs younger I just don't see why we'd target a player like Allen. I do agree we should add a 3rd player (prospect) in order to net 5 guys, if we need too Wasnt thinking of him as a center piece but more of a definite throw in as the last player...as for his level and age....even though Phillips has been struggling, maybe you light a fire under him and promote him to AAA and put Allen in the AA outfield, at least then you have a fall back option.
  9. UMBrewer
    It has to be the Indians. And if its the Indians its going to be either Frazier or Zimmer AND Greg Allen for sure, and then its going to be one of Mejia/Bradley and one of Aiken/Sheffield/Clevinger.... if they throw in Will Smith, then you can add Triston McKenzie to the package above. I almost wonder if the Brewers dont also throw in a guy like Brandon Woodruff to get all 5 of those guys (along with Smith).
  10. UMBrewer
    The Yankees got Torres, MLB.com's #26 prospect, for half a season of Chapman. The Royals are asking for Giolito for Wade Davis. At this point, I wouldn't say a definitive "not happening" to any prospects being traded for good MLB talent. Prospects are not as highly regarded in today's market as they were a few seasons ago. There is also the issue of immediacy to win a pennant for some teams. The cubs have a perfect storm brewing on the MLB roster that made Torres expendable, and in return they get the best closer in the game to lock down wins for them. And you have an organization that can see a World Series in the horizon and they havent been in that spot for over 100 years. Plus, they are a large market team that can spend on talent acquisition, so some of the prospects given the situation mentioned above, made Torres a guy on the move as well. If you take the immediacy issue, only the Indians seem most logical, but they are small market and value their prospects more. The Chapman trade is not the model nor was it really rational from a numbers point of view. We shouldnt expect the same with the Lucroy trade.
  11. UMBrewer
    Not only that, but the value being given up in the prospect would not be equal to Lucroy's value. You would have to package Jeffress or Smith just to get one of those guys alone. I would put the value of a top 10 hitting prospect in the $60 million range, and I had previously put Lucroy's value at around $48 million.
  12. UMBrewer
    Very nice, so it must be an input error that Fangraphs lists him as 40 years old. This was exactly the type of guy I used to go bird dogging for organizations back in the 90's. Not on anyones follow list, blowing people away with brains rather than stuff, smart nice kids who is a great organization piece, and you get a check when they sign him.
  13. UMBrewer
    He's probably become just a bit complacent. He's obviously read his own press reports, and feels like his time has come. If this were the case it is a bit of an issue, as he still needs to show up every day and outperform at every level, whether or not you feel like you deserve a call up. A guy that I am more worried about is Phillips. He is repeating AA after 250 AB last year, and the power has returned but he is looking like a platoon player eventually according to some scouts. He seems to lose a tick in production each step up the ladder, which isnt uncommon, and he is still above league average, but for a guy you plan on being your future All Star CF with a big bat, a 113 wRC+ isnt what you want out of a guy with his background.
  14. UMBrewer
    Ah Peter Gammons.... The Sid Hartman of national baseball reporters.
  15. UMBrewer
    So I was scanning through fangraphs' minor league numbers, and looking at the Brewer affiliates to see who I should be excited about at each level, and at the first turn came across something VERY interesting: When I clicked on pitching for Helena, and advanced statistics, the name Aaron Myers comes up, and he has a 1.35 FIP. First inclination is to find out when he was drafted, where he played, etc, until I notice that he is 40 years old! He has pitched 4.2 innings this year, and not only that, he has played with the team now for 2 years. He was promoted from the Arizona Brewers at some point this year after having played for Arizona last year and having nice results. Obviously he isn't a "prospect" or someone to be excited about. I mean its one thing to have a guy way down there on the back field leagues who can just do the job when needed, or have an arm that is attached to his body, but to stick with the team for 2 years now, AND get a promotion? Was there a point this year where Tom Flanagan was perusing his affiliate reports, and said "Holy Hell! Get this guy promoted, we need to aggressively push him through our Farm System"? This is a Saber Convention type of story that has to be quite interesting to learn. Has anyone heard anything about this guy?
  16. UMBrewer
    Is Stearns married? Maybe its a deal with LA, and the "significant piece" is Jennifer Lawrence.
  17. UMBrewer
    I understand this, was simply playing the "what if" game. Too bad they cant wait until after the World Series.
  18. UMBrewer
    With the new Trea Turner rule I believe they cannot until after the World Series. Heck if we are going to take the "guys we should have drafted this year but didnt" approach, why not try a different sort of trade, but with the Marlins. The Brewers send Lucroy and Smith to Miami and in return get J.T. Realmuto, Luis Castillo and Braxton Garret. Marlins make a big upgrade at a premium position for the stretch run the Brewers get a catcher they can control for 4 more years and a lottery ticket and a really nice arm. Its not a big future move, but if Realmuto continues to improve as he has this year, they have a guy to flip when contention comes around again in 2020 or so.
  19. UMBrewer
    The more I look at d'Arnaud's value, the more "less crazy" this offer seems. Yes, it is a lowball offer. But you get a guy who, without injury is projected to put up all star numbers, all while under arbitration level salary. I would put his surplus value at a bottom of around $20 million. And this is a very conservative estimate, and it doesnt factor in what you get from him for the last two months of the season which could really be in the neighborhood of $11 million. D'Arnaud and a guy like Robert Gsellman, and a throw in from low A ball would not be a horrible trade. Does ignore the rebuild timeline though.
  20. UMBrewer
    Id be thrilled with Frazier, one of those pitchers and Mejia. but as the previous poster points out Frazier is probably untouchable, and I think Aiken is as well, especially if you get Zimmer. Zimmer/one of the 3 pitchers/Mejia is a great trade too.
  21. UMBrewer
    Patience? He is striking out over 30% of the time. Although I respect the power potential, I would much rather have Zimmer/Aiken/Mejia for Lucroy and then perhaps one of Sheffield/Clevinger (if we threw in Jeffress) than anything involving Bradley. Bradley Zimmer has almost the exact same strikeout as Bobby Bradley this year. The difference is Bradley Zimmer is 3 years older and only one level higher than Bobby Bradley. Also, Bradley has a higher OPS. To each his own, I guess. I simply believe in Bobby Bradley's bat more and prefer him. My preference would be for the guy who has value on defense and some speed, to go along with the power potential, than to have a big HR guy who plays 1B and strikes out a ton. We have that already.
  22. UMBrewer
    Patience? He is striking out over 30% of the time. Although I respect the power potential, I would much rather have Zimmer/Aiken/Mejia for Lucroy and then perhaps one of Sheffield/Clevinger (if we threw in Jeffress) than anything involving Bradley.
  23. UMBrewer
    For me you would definitely need more. Especially when considering the leverage brought on with Cleveland and Texas' interest. One of Newcomb/Albies has to be in the package if Swanson is untouchable. I would want Newcomb/Toussaint/and a third player down the list from the Braves for Lucroy. If you throw in one of Nelson or Thornburg/Jeffress, you probably could get Riley as well.
  24. UMBrewer
    What valuable pieces did the Brewers get for Sheffield? Are you talking about the great Matt Mieske? or better yet the ace Ricky Bones? or the hall of famer Jose Valentin? Which one of those were a valuable piece again? Bones gave the Brewers 8.6 WAR with 2 really nice seasons. And Valentin 11.2. Those numbers arent too awful. They were both starters, and they both were contributors to teams that were a) run by the Seligs, and b) never had a chance.
  25. UMBrewer
    I bet if you put Puig on a team where he's going to start everyday and in a city the national media doesn't give a crap about and the local media barely care about the team, all these supposed problems with him will disappear. I think that that is the same philosophy that brought Gary Sheffield to Milwaukee. I get you put that in blue but you realize the Brewers drafted him right? Yes, but he was a punk when they drafted him. He was the best pick available at that time, and luckily they turned him around for some valuable pieces. But he's the most reviled Brewer of all time. Was it worth it?
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