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UMBrewer

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Everything posted by UMBrewer

  1. UMBrewer
    I bet if you put Puig on a team where he's going to start everyday and in a city the national media doesn't give a crap about and the local media barely care about the team, all these supposed problems with him will disappear. I think that that is the same philosophy that brought Gary Sheffield to Milwaukee.
  2. UMBrewer
    Funny thing is that I would have rather had Profar as a prospect than now. Granted he is doing very nicely, but I want more proof. I'm not a huge fan of Gallo for the reasons you mention. I just dont see a ton of value in a guy who hits 35 HR but barely hits .250. He's just Khris Davis then. So I answered my own thought here...I would rather have Profar, but I'm not convinced about him yet.
  3. UMBrewer
    Pipe dream - He has more value than Gallo to them Damn... I want nothing to do with Gallo. I am not sure the Rangers have talent that they are willing to give up to get Lucroy. I would say it has to be one of Gallo/Mazzara/Brinson AND Luis Ortiz. To which the Rangers may say forget about any of those first three, and then you worry about a really watered down return. Ortiz would be great, but I want one more top ranked talent to come along with him AND a high upside lottery pick like Taveras. It seems to me like the Red Sox are the best chance to get the best return.
  4. UMBrewer
    Too bad the Giants system stinks. He would fit there pretty well, plus they have money coming off the books after this season (roughly $50M), so paying him going forward wouldn't be that difficult in their salary structure. The Giants' system isnt too awful actually, especially related to what the Brewers could expect in a Braun trade. Phil Bickford was just ranked the midseason #50 prospect by Baseball America. And if the team could get rid of Braun while only eating about $30 million of his remaining salary, and get a guy who is a future mid rotation starter, I would take it in a second. He would slide into the #2 pitching prospect slot in the organization, which is currently filled buy a guy who is not really all that impressive this year in his 2nd stint in low A Ball (Devin Williams).
  5. UMBrewer
    I think you are on the right track with something like this (assuming Milwaukee is okay parting with Nelson as well as Luc). I have heard that the Dodgers are not as enamored with De Leon as some people - so perhaps he is gettable. But the guy keeps producing - and in the upper minors, which is encouraging - so you got to like him. Otherwise, I like Grant Holmes a lot. He's further away, but I think he can be pretty special. It'll just take a couple of more years. I would trade out Stewart/Buehler for Alex Verdugo and attempt the 4 for 2 trade straight up. Barnes would instantly hop in front of Nottingham for "Catcher" of the future title, you get a solid middle of the rotation Starting pitcher, and solid pieces in Belinger and Verdugo as well. If they pulled off a deal like this the Brewers AA affiliate might be more fun to go and see this year than the MLB product.
  6. UMBrewer
    I cant believe that article advocates Moncada in a deal for Lucroy. Sure the numbers add up, but he is the #1 prospect in baseball right now. Untouchable.
  7. UMBrewer
    I think the problem here is that Lucroy's value is worth two top 50 prospects (1 hitter and 1 pitcher) but it sounds like the Brewers are asking for more than what he is worth. And then the other issue is that there may be a perceived problem with his numbers. He has a very nice OPS and slugging percentage, but not a ton of HR's. He's not considered a top tier defender either, so that hurts. Yes, there is value in the pitch framing, but I dont think thats something front offices are looking at as a major piece of an acquisition. Add all those things together, its hard for whatever team wants him to give up two big time prospects for. And if you are dealing with the Astros, Martes has to be one of the names as well as Kyle Tucker or Daz Cameron, and then a throw in.
  8. UMBrewer
    This statement maybe true in bizarro world. If a 3.60 ERA is someone who looks like a non tender candidate in 5 or 6 years then someone needs to tell the Red Sox that they need to DFA David Price now before he gets to the end of his contract!!!!! His FIP is 4.94 though, wherease Price's is in the mid 3.00 range. The guy is on pace for a below average WAR season. Baseball Prospectus has 10 year projections on players, and for Nelson he looks a lot like a replacement level pitcher. That's fine for the rebuilding Brewers, but not a major trade chip, definitely not an ace, and not even the type of pitcher that a contender would use at the bottom of their rotation. I think the Wily Peralta comp is a good one right now. Who knows, maybe he turns things around in the 2nd half. I hope he does.
  9. UMBrewer
    No one is getting Moncada, and throwing Nelson into a deal with Lucroy isnt something that would make the Red Sox make him available. Based on his performance this year he looks like a non tender candidate out in the year 5 or 6 year of his control...Not the type of guy that makes the number one prospect in baseball available.
  10. UMBrewer
    I think the Tigers are an ideal landing spot for Aaron Hill. They arent getting any production at all this year from their second or third baseman, and they are still in the thick of things in the NL Central/Wild Card Race. He's not a difference maker, but if you pick him up and one more big piece and then maybe you have the makings for a playoff push. If the Brewers picked up what the owe for the remainder of the year on his salary they could get a guy on the Tigers top 10 prospect list in return i bet.
  11. UMBrewer
    Braun's Trade Value: Assuming the receiving team takes the $4 million buyout in 2021. And I assume this given that projections see him as a below average player at that point, and $16 million is a lot of money to pay a guy for a 2nd division player. Projected future value: ROS 2016 1.4 WAR, 2.5 2017, 2.3 2018, 2.0 2019, 1.7 2020= 9.9 WAR between now and the end of his contract. He will be due $84 million between now and the time of the buyout. $7.5 million times 9,9 WAR equals $74.25 million....meaning the contract is not worth it, meaning the Brewers would have to eat some just to get a bag of balls back. I have thought all along that if they swallowed $30 million of the remaining salary over those years they could get something of value in return. And lets say they offer to pay the buyout....that gives Braun a trade/surplus value of $28 million. That $28 million should net them a top 50 of 100 prospect from whatever team can swallow his salary, the negative press, and that needs a big bat like his for the stretch run. I would say that means his main suitors would probably be the Tigers, the Dodgers, The Nationals. And the Dodgers and Nats both have a prospect they could send over to make it all worth while.
  12. UMBrewer
    It will be interesting to see what some of the mid season top 50 prospects lists look like. I was talking with some Indians fans the other day, and thought that a trade of Lucroy to the Indians for Frazier/Aiken/throw in, and none of them wanted it. Then again, they didnt realize how cheap Lucroy's contract is, and that they would get him for a year and a half. My guess is that the teams most interested in Lucroy are going to be the Blue Jays, Mets, Indians, Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox and Tigers. Of those teams,of course Stearns knows intimately what he would want from Houston in a trade, and the Mets, Dodgers and Red Sox could "overpay" if they wanted him that badly. And all 3 have prospects to deal that would greatly improve the farm system.
  13. UMBrewer
    Lawrie 2.0, hopefully he can get traded away for a middling soft tosser when the opportunity presents itself.
  14. UMBrewer
    So I was at a charity event last night, so I wasnt able to respond to the first round pick. Not happy with it at all. Especially since they passed on Puk, Groome as well as Braxton Garrett and Kyle Lewis. I dont think that Ray is going to stick in CF, so that decreases his value, and then the power and speed should be nice, but that translates into a ceiling of an average MLB LF. I would much rather have the guy who can be the potential Ace (Puk, Groome) or the #2 (Garrett) or the above average RF with more power. I feel like Ray would have been a good pick for a team in the bottom of the 1st round as opposed to the 5th pick. I have no problem with the player, just that the Brewers passed up on potentially 4 Really good players to land one safe average player. It reminded me of a Bruce Seid pick. Not too annoyed by the 2nd rounder, but I just wish they would start to load up on some arms in the farm system.
  15. UMBrewer
    If PUk is available you cant pass him up, nor can you pass up Lewis if Puk is gone.
  16. UMBrewer
    I am ok with Rutherford, he is higher on my list than my favorite, Braxton Garrett. I am also ok with Groome or even Ray. But Pint would be a disaster given his delivery mechanics issue and the heel plant, etc. I have no problem taking a guy like that with amazing stuff later in the first and with the committment to make him your closer. Draft rule this year has to be broken and not take BPA but take Best Pitcher available because of the fact its such a high pick, the team is very weak in pitching depth, still does not have one impact arm in the system, and they cant, when ready to contend again go and buy pitching like the Cubs have done. They need to develop it on their own. So, not down on Rutherford, I just think the Brewers need a guy like Garrett or Groome more than a guy like Rutherford or Ray. It just seems like Garrett isnt even being considered by the board or the team, which is a huge mistake in my opinion. He's the safest with the most upside potential they will have a chance at.
  17. UMBrewer
    Is anyone at all excited for Braxton Garrett at #5? He has pretty dang good stuff, is polished, has a ceiling of a #2 starting pitcher, and has a much higher floor than guys like Groome or Pint have. I am not impressed with Perez at all. I wonder if he will ever hit. And the other name associated with the Brewers at five, Corey Ray, profiles, for me, as an every day regular, average player for a ceiling. I just think they have to take an arm here.
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