Lathund

I don't mind this as much because there is a serious drawback to it. The old extreme shifts essentially only had the downside of allowing easy singles where there is no longer a 3B. Which rarely happened anyway. Here the OF is wide open, which not only increases hit probability but also the likelyhood of what would normally be a single turning into a double. It might still be worthwhile to do for some players, but it'll be for much, much fewer players. Which I don't really mind, if you're truly that extreme and limited as a player, there should perhaps be a downside to it. The problem before was that it was beneficial to do extreme shifts for just about every LHH with very little to lose.

Brewers might want to keep Turang down a couple weeks for the extra year of control, but I would expect the plan is for him to spend most (or even all) of the season in the majors, starting at 2B most days. I think it's the best roster fit; it provides a natural backup to Adames when needed. The fact that he can play CF is another plus too, especially if they end up with only Yelich, Taylor, Mitchell (And the mostly DHing Winker) as pure outfielders. But more than that though, I just think that the changes this year makes them value elite up the middle defense even more, and the changes to pickoffs and the bases should potentially suit a speedster like Turang on offense as well. Really, I just think that Turang is almost a lock to be a decent MLB player straight away. Probably never, or at least years away from it, an all-star, but he's exactly the kind of guy who the Cardinals seem to find every year or two, who just slots in as an average to above average MLB starter almost from day 1 without having been super hyped. As for what the roster looks like, I think the wild card that needs settling first is Hiura. He has no options, so I guess they have to really like what they see in ST for him to make the roster. But let's assume he does, then I expect the IF to have Tellez, Turang, Adames and Urias as the "starters". Hiura as a somewhat weird fit with his reverse splits. Anderson is a given, likely playing every day against LHP (As an indirect platoon with Turang/Mitchell and sometimes directly with Tellez) and getting starts at all the corner spots inbetween. And then that only leaves one spot, which I think goes to Brosseau as the most accomplished hitter at the MLB level compared to Miller or Toro. Since Hiura didn't really serve a necessary positional purpose on the roster, if he doesn't make the team then just about anyone could take that spot. Could well be Toro, but it could also give room for Frelick or even Voit.

It's even been updated today to have the Brewers winning 88 and the Cardinals 86. I think the old version didn't include Wade Miley for instance. Might've been updates to the projections themselves too. Clay Davenports projections have the Brewers winning 90 and the Cardinals 87 too, and THE BAT X has the Brewers by 85-84, so it's not just PECOTA. Whereas obviously ZiPS goes the other way, by a lot. I'd still say the Cardinals are the favorites for the division, but the point is that it's close. They relied so heavily on Arenado and Goldschmidt staying completely healthy and having years waaay beyond their career averages, which is unlikely to happen again given that things like the Statcast metrics didn't even come close to backing up their improved results. They also had Pujols. Contreras is indeed an improvement offensively, but he's also a butcher behind the plate both in terms of framing (Which has a huge impact) and seemingly also in terms of calling pitchers/working with pitchers. His best overall season is 3.3 fWAR, second best 2.6. He's a good player, but defense matters at the position. Which brings us to the pitching staff... which wasn't strengthened at all. They have a very old and injury prone rotation. And they lack any kind of depth behind that. They have like two good relievers (One of whom was very very good, but has a really short track record of it). Their K/9 was the lowest in the majors last year, K% was 28th. Yes they have a good defense. But the best teams get 2.5 strikeouts / 9 innings more than the Cardinals, defense alone won't make up for that. And going to Willson Contreras won't improve their K/BB numbers any either. A new pitching coach as well to go with the new primary catcher and the retirement of Yadier Molina, even if he did not play a lot in his last year. I don't want to get too down on the Cardinals, they still have a strong team and as I said I still consider them favorites. But they had to have a lot of things go right to finish as far ahead as they did, and I don't see that happening again.

Good return for a fringe reliever. I really liked Topa when he first came up, but has struggled with injuries a lot since. Could still turn out to be a good reliever if he stays healthy, Brewers needed a 40-man spot for Miley, and I feel like this is a productive way to do it.

We get 5 years of William Contreras for just Ruiz? And a decent middle reliever (And a AA relief prospect I've never heard of, so not gonna put much into that..) on top of that. Like... I get the upside with Ruiz. That kind of speed and newfound plate discipline if he can develop even above average contact skills and below average power is a very good player. But the Brewers have 4 other OF prospects just as good or even better. And even if he does turn into a good player I'm fine with it. There's much risk involved in his profile, turning it into a more proven player at a position and role of need is worth it. Brewers needed a catcher, Brewers needed some offense, and Brewers needed to improve against LHP. Contreras is a 24 year old catcher with 5 years of team control remaining, with a career 121 wRC+ so far, who has a career 158 wRC+ against LHP for his career. This is one hell of an opportunistic trade.

IMO no. But I tend to be much more in the "Defense first" camp than most people are when it comes to catchers, Catcher offense is really expensive, and a catcher strong both offensively and defensively even more so (Hence the, justified, sky high ask for Murphy). I'd then rather just platoon two defensively strong catchers and spend elsewhere. And wait for Quero. Although with that being said, I don't hate the idea of Vazquez for 2-3 years. Unless the current market has inflated the price beyond all reason, that is.

That statcast page is more of an argument *against* signing Drury than for. That's a league average xwOBA, and one of the larger differentials between wOBA and xwOBA in the league. Naturally the Statcast xstats aren't gospel, but it's not as if he has strong underlying metrics. And if a knock on the Brewers in 2022 was a "HR or nothing" approach with not enough focus on getting on base, then Drury really doesn't help with that. That being said, for a lefty masher to platoon with Tellez and (indirectly) with Turang it wouldn't be terrible at the right price, I just don't think it's that much of an upgrade. It really comes down to how much of his 2022 you think is repeatable. I don't think it really is, so I'm skeptical.

Swanson just seems like a Cardinal already. No real standout skill or statistical outlier, just allround solid getting value from defense, baserunning and an average-ish bat. Probably a 3-3.5 WAR type of guy most years with the occasional all-star year. Good player, but wouldn't mind the Cardinals spending a ton of money on him. But because he already seems like a Cardinal, it seems like an odd place for them to spend, as they produce that kind of player (or close enough anyway) frequently, most recently Tommy Edman. I don't actually think they'll end up with any of the big shortstops in the end though. They seem to trade for and extend players, not sign big FAs. So these big 8-10 year deals don't seem as likely. Also pretty much their entire rotation are free agents after this year, they'll probably need to have a good chunk of money set aside for that.

As much as Yadi declined in his last couple of years, he was still great at handling pitchers by all accounts. Probably a big part of why their underwhelming pitching kept managing to be servicable year on year. If they turn to Contreras they'll be in for a rude awakening I think. No Yadi, and a new pitching coach, quite a lot of uncertainty for an already highly volatile (Injuries, depth) pitching staff.

I think it's easy to look at Wong and see us missing out on a 2-3 WAR player next year. But have a look at his Statcast page below. That's the underlying metrics for Wong's career year offensively, how sustainable does that look for a player in his early 30s? The lower body injuries he keeps having, and going from 40th to 20th percentile in sprint speed from 2021-2022 (He was ~66th percentile in his early years) is quite worrying for someone who relies on defense and baserunning for much of his value. Add to that the struggles against LHP and his lack of versatility. Brewers probably feel like if Wong is a 1.5-2 WAR player who only plays 2B then replacing Cutch with Winker and Wong with Turang (And some more Urias/Brosseau) is an upgrade for sure. Turang being able to cover 3B, SS and CF has a knock-on effect too. I also think people downplay Winker a bit too much due to recency bias. He is after all a career 270/.374/.463 hitter, good for a 126 wRC+. He is one year removed from a .305/.394/.556 (147 wRC+) season. You have a big section of this board clamoring for things like "middle of the order bats" and complaining about the "HR or bust" approach. Now we get that bat, and in the form of someone who strikes out very little, runs a high (In the current environment) average and gets on base a ton. Still not happy of course, now they're busy digging holes to move the goalposts, probably. But this is how a team like this gets those bats; you trade from an area of strength and you buy low with a reasonable hope/expectation of a bounceback. Because you can't just go out and straight up get a guaranteed middle of the order type hitter, they're either not available or cost a fortune. You have to cut corners somewhere to get there. Jose Abreu is a career 133 wRC+ hitter and that cost 3 years / $60m for a 35 year old. Now just watch them flip Winker like in a delayed 3-team trade and make this all redundant... Wong:

Bench, backing up 2B/3B 3B, with some 2B platooning and backing up SS 2B, and backing up SS/CF Rowdy plays 1B only, and Willy is entrenched at SS (Though he certainly has the skillset to play 2B and 3B should he need to), but they now have 4 versatile infielders to go with them (Brosseau has played all infield positions, even if SS would be more of an emergency thing). Depth and versatility are good things, there will always be injuries. Brosseau, Turang, Toro and Urias all have minor league options remaining (Adames too, but that's not happening), so it doesn't create any roster issues or prevent them from finding further upgrades either.

Winker is a career 126 wRC+ hitter even after his 2022. His 108 wRC+ would still be an upgrade at DH, and looking at the peripherals it seems far more likely to get better rather than worse going forward. Turang is ready to step in. Toro has yet to find his stride in MLB, but he crushed it in the upper minors and is only 25. And if he doesn't find it he has an option and will be this years Pablo Reyes at least. Personally I'm not a fan of having a DH on a a roster and prefer to have it be a rotational thing, but even with that in mind it seems a decent enough deal.

The very fact that he signed on a major league deal means there was significant interest (EDIT: And noone but you has said there was necessarily significant interest in a major league contract specifically. Just enough interest to warrant a major league deal), or they wouldn't have offered a major league deal, That's always been the case in the past when minor league FAs without MLB experience sign these deals. I have no idea what his chances are, since before today I had not heard of him and all I have to go on is basically his bbref/Fangraphs pages and the info in this thread. But apparently you, from looking at the very most surface levels of stats, can with confidence declare that front offices are lead by idiots and that he will never amount to anything. There is more to scouting than just looking at a triple slash line you know. He increased his power output by a lot this year, you automatically suggest it's a fluke, but teams will have both much better data, as well as having watched him so they'll have a much better idea if it looks like it's real or a fluke. Might also be worth mentioning that Perkins' 117 wRC+ is better than what Tyrone Taylor ever produced in AAA, at the same age. Just to take the first example that came to mind of someone with mediocre minor league numbers in his mid 20s who turned into a solid MLB player. Again, I don't know the first thing about the guy or how good he can be. I'm just saying that you have absolutely no basis for making definitive statements that he'll never be a major leaguer barring a miracle.

I'm not particularly worried about losing Cam Devanney in the rule 5 draft tbh. In recent years, there's usually like 3-4 position players taken in each draft. Maybe there'll be a few more after the unique nature of 2020, no rule 5 draft in 2021, and the 26 man rosters, but it's still primarily limited by the roster spots. In a vacuum I could see how it could make sense to take a chance on him. But there are also 29 other teams, so not only does another team need to think it's a good idea, they also need to be able to even carry a rule 5 position player in the first place; which usually means non-contending teams. And then that spot needs to be a SS/3B. And perhaps most crucially, there needs to be no better rule 5 candidates available. With no draft last year and obviously no added 40-man spots, there are also more unprotected players than usual. Devanney might be a decent candidate, but I'd wager there's enough better ones out there to keep him safe. Bit surprised to see Singleton protected. I suppose they have to have a decent inkling that someone might select him. I also think that having seen him close up for a full season, they have a pretty good grasp on him, and if there's anything chance of further development. The batting average is ugly, but there's a .375 OBP and 24 HRs to go along with it this past year. And as a slow, pull-heavy LHH there's probably a few hits to be gained by the loss of the shift. So keep him around as Rowdy insurance for now. Not really a whole lot to lose, not like it's a big financial commitment or anything.

I'm not particularly worried about losing Cam Devanney in the rule 5 draft tbh. In recent years, there's usually like 3-4 position players taken in each draft. Maybe there'll be a few more after the unique nature of 2020, no rule 5 draft in 2021, and the 26 man rosters, but it's still primarily limited by the roster spots. In a vacuum I could see how it could make sense to take a chance on him. But there are also 29 other teams, so not only does another team need to think it's a good idea, they also need to be able to even carry a rule 5 position player in the first place; which usually means non-contending teams. And then that spot needs to be a SS/3B. And perhaps most crucially, there needs to be no better rule 5 candidates available. With no draft last year and obviously no added 40-man spots, there are also more unprotected players than usual. Devanney might be a decent candidate, but I'd wager there's enough better ones out there to keep him safe. Bit surprised to see Singleton protected. I suppose they have to have a decent inkling that someone might select him. I also think that having seen him close up for a full season, they have a pretty good grasp on him, and if there's anything chance of further development. The batting average is ugly, but there's a .375 OBP and 24 HRs to go along with it this past year. And as a slow, pull-heavy LHH there's probably a few hits to be gained by the loss of the shift. So keep him around as Rowdy insurance for now. Not really a whole lot to lose, not like it's a big financial commitment or anything.

To answer the point about for who I'd trade someone like Chourio, I'd say that the important part is the team control and contract. I would never do it for 2 years of a player, so I wouldn't do it for Burnes. Or I would under specific cirumstances, like if the team was already a legit WS favorite with a 2 year window or something, but not in general and not where the Brewers are now. The Yelich trade serves as the type of trade I'd be willing to give up a true top prospect for. A proven 3-4 WAR type of player with upside for more, under 5 years of cheap team control. But those types of players so very rarely get traded. Other than that I don't really see what would do it.

You (and I for that matter) would think there are teams that would, but they almost never do. Very few position players get picked in the rule 5 draft; 3 in 2020 and 2019, 4 in 2018, 3½ (1 2-way player) in 2017. It's a big deal for teams, even rebuilding ones, to roster a player without the, uh, option to option them, that they absolutely do not want playing. I know on here every year we tend to overestimate how many players will be protected, and yet none of the ones left unprotected in recent years have been taken. He might very well be the highest rated prospect left unprotected in a while (If he does go unprotected), I just happen to think he's really not the type of prospect who gets picked in the Rule 5 draft. He's not a pitcher, he's not an elite defender, his bat right now isn't good enough to play. You could perhaps live with that if the player had a high enough upside, but Valerio doesn't have the power or the defense/position to be a star, even if he could very well be a good player. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that someone picks him, but not a high enough risk to be worth spending 1-2 years on the 40-man without contributing IMO.

Rule 5 decisions aren't really about talent and potential only. Despite his struggles this year, there is still a lot of promise for Valerio, but is he someone you'd want to keep on your active roster for a whole season at this point? 76 wRC+ in AA, and while he has played multiple positions I get the impression that it's not because he's a great defender, but about finding him at bats. So he's not your defensive swiss army knife like Hernán Perez either. If it was a waivers situation where a team could pick him up and option him, I'm sure someone would. But for the active roster? I seriously doubt he's getting picked if unprotected. If a team really was willing to carry a position player who they expected to contribute very little in 2023, I imagine there would be players out there with higher upside to go for.

Rule 5 decisions aren't really about talent and potential only. Despite his struggles this year, there is still a lot of promise for Valerio, but is he someone you'd want to keep on your active roster for a whole season at this point? 76 wRC+ in AA, and while he has played multiple positions I get the impression that it's not because he's a great defender, but about finding him at bats. So he's not your defensive swiss army knife like Hernán Perez either. If it was a waivers situation where a team could pick him up and option him, I'm sure someone would. But for the active roster? I seriously doubt he's getting picked if unprotected. If a team really was willing to carry a position player who they expected to contribute very little in 2023, I imagine there would be players out there with higher upside to go for.

CF is the odd situation where I actually would prefer a (cheap) rental this deadline over a more expensive long-term acquisition, seeing as we have a trio of top prospects in AA who certainly look like the part now (Wiemer will likely end up in a corner, but he can play CF for now at least), as well as Chourio a bit further away. But admittedly there isn't a whole lot out there, so if Laureano is cheaper than I expect.. sure. As always though, I expect Brewers have checked in on every even remotely available player, just in case someone is available for a price they find attractive. Benintendi, Michael A Taylor, Laureano, and whoever else might be available in CF. Doesn't have to mean talks got anywhere.

CF is the odd situation where I actually would prefer a (cheap) rental this deadline over a more expensive long-term acquisition, seeing as we have a trio of top prospects in AA who certainly look like the part now (Wiemer will likely end up in a corner, but he can play CF for now at least), as well as Chourio a bit further away. But admittedly there isn't a whole lot out there, so if Laureano is cheaper than I expect.. sure. As always though, I expect Brewers have checked in on every even remotely available player, just in case someone is available for a price they find attractive. Benintendi, Michael A Taylor, Laureano, and whoever else might be available in CF. Doesn't have to mean talks got anywhere.

And the thing about a multi-positional excellent defender is that it's very easy to fit them onto the roster to give them the time and regular at bats to properly give them the chance to tap into their potential.

And the thing about a multi-positional excellent defender is that it's very easy to fit them onto the roster to give them the time and regular at bats to properly give them the chance to tap into their potential.

That player is significantly more valuable than 2 months of Josh Bell though. I mean even if the power never shows up at all and he's Alcides Escobar instead, I'd still take that every day with that defense. Or at the very least use him as part of a trade for something more long-term. What people tend to overlook with prospects is the impact of uncertainty. I mean I agree that Turang is extremely unlikely to top 4 WAR at his best even if we take the more optimistic end of the projections. But I also think he's highly likely to at least be Escobar or better. With Peterson a free agent and Wong with a team option that looks like it might get declined, even a SS/2B/CF utility man for minimum salary and with 3 option years remaining is useful. And I think he's almost certainly better than that. Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily lose much sleep over it either, it's more that I find it to be a short-sighted and unnecessary move. We're looking to compete over the next couple of years while we still have Burnes/Woodruff/Adames etc. So why trade away players who can contribute to that team (Even if it's peripherally) when you could trade players who, even if they pan out, will only do so in 2025 or beyond? I'd instead look to A-ball and below for the prospects we should trade this deadline.