Lathund

CF is the odd situation where I actually would prefer a (cheap) rental this deadline over a more expensive long-term acquisition, seeing as we have a trio of top prospects in AA who certainly look like the part now (Wiemer will likely end up in a corner, but he can play CF for now at least), as well as Chourio a bit further away. But admittedly there isn't a whole lot out there, so if Laureano is cheaper than I expect.. sure. As always though, I expect Brewers have checked in on every even remotely available player, just in case someone is available for a price they find attractive. Benintendi, Michael A Taylor, Laureano, and whoever else might be available in CF. Doesn't have to mean talks got anywhere.

CF is the odd situation where I actually would prefer a (cheap) rental this deadline over a more expensive long-term acquisition, seeing as we have a trio of top prospects in AA who certainly look like the part now (Wiemer will likely end up in a corner, but he can play CF for now at least), as well as Chourio a bit further away. But admittedly there isn't a whole lot out there, so if Laureano is cheaper than I expect.. sure. As always though, I expect Brewers have checked in on every even remotely available player, just in case someone is available for a price they find attractive. Benintendi, Michael A Taylor, Laureano, and whoever else might be available in CF. Doesn't have to mean talks got anywhere.

And the thing about a multi-positional excellent defender is that it's very easy to fit them onto the roster to give them the time and regular at bats to properly give them the chance to tap into their potential.

And the thing about a multi-positional excellent defender is that it's very easy to fit them onto the roster to give them the time and regular at bats to properly give them the chance to tap into their potential.

That player is significantly more valuable than 2 months of Josh Bell though. I mean even if the power never shows up at all and he's Alcides Escobar instead, I'd still take that every day with that defense. Or at the very least use him as part of a trade for something more long-term. What people tend to overlook with prospects is the impact of uncertainty. I mean I agree that Turang is extremely unlikely to top 4 WAR at his best even if we take the more optimistic end of the projections. But I also think he's highly likely to at least be Escobar or better. With Peterson a free agent and Wong with a team option that looks like it might get declined, even a SS/2B/CF utility man for minimum salary and with 3 option years remaining is useful. And I think he's almost certainly better than that. Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily lose much sleep over it either, it's more that I find it to be a short-sighted and unnecessary move. We're looking to compete over the next couple of years while we still have Burnes/Woodruff/Adames etc. So why trade away players who can contribute to that team (Even if it's peripherally) when you could trade players who, even if they pan out, will only do so in 2025 or beyond? I'd instead look to A-ball and below for the prospects we should trade this deadline.

That player is significantly more valuable than 2 months of Josh Bell though. I mean even if the power never shows up at all and he's Alcides Escobar instead, I'd still take that every day with that defense. Or at the very least use him as part of a trade for something more long-term. What people tend to overlook with prospects is the impact of uncertainty. I mean I agree that Turang is extremely unlikely to top 4 WAR at his best even if we take the more optimistic end of the projections. But I also think he's highly likely to at least be Escobar or better. With Peterson a free agent and Wong with a team option that looks like it might get declined, even a SS/2B/CF utility man for minimum salary and with 3 option years remaining is useful. And I think he's almost certainly better than that. Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily lose much sleep over it either, it's more that I find it to be a short-sighted and unnecessary move. We're looking to compete over the next couple of years while we still have Burnes/Woodruff/Adames etc. So why trade away players who can contribute to that team (Even if it's peripherally) when you could trade players who, even if they pan out, will only do so in 2025 or beyond? I'd instead look to A-ball and below for the prospects we should trade this deadline.

Yeah I would absolutely not do that for a rental like this. With the many arbitration eligible players on the roster, there will be very little payroll room unless Mark A is willing to allow a higher budget (Which he most likely will not). The prospects who are close to MLB ready will play a big part in allowing the Brewers to handle that. To be able to keep the big contributors around, they'd have to cut around the edges instead, and having prospects ready to step in is key to that even if the prospects aren't stars. So if it takes a better prospect to make the trade, I'd prefer it to be someone further away from the majors, even if their upside is greater. So say one of those toolsy prospects with upside to dream on, but questionable hit tools. Sometimes they find their way and become great players, but more often they're Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison. And either way, they'll be in MLB only after Burnes, Woodruff etc. are all free agents anyway. So someone like Hedbert Perez could be a headliner. Now I'm a prospect hugger and not a huge Bell fan so I wouldn't like it overly much either, but it's the type of return that won't impact the Brewers for years, if it ever does.

Yeah I would absolutely not do that for a rental like this. With the many arbitration eligible players on the roster, there will be very little payroll room unless Mark A is willing to allow a higher budget (Which he most likely will not). The prospects who are close to MLB ready will play a big part in allowing the Brewers to handle that. To be able to keep the big contributors around, they'd have to cut around the edges instead, and having prospects ready to step in is key to that even if the prospects aren't stars. So if it takes a better prospect to make the trade, I'd prefer it to be someone further away from the majors, even if their upside is greater. So say one of those toolsy prospects with upside to dream on, but questionable hit tools. Sometimes they find their way and become great players, but more often they're Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison. And either way, they'll be in MLB only after Burnes, Woodruff etc. are all free agents anyway. So someone like Hedbert Perez could be a headliner. Now I'm a prospect hugger and not a huge Bell fan so I wouldn't like it overly much either, but it's the type of return that won't impact the Brewers for years, if it ever does.

An extension is absolutely possible, it just won't be at a discount. Give him the biggest deal ever, make him the first $500m player, and you can extend him. If it's a team like the Dodgers, who have shown they can be competitive year in year out and have the resources to keep that up, I'm sure he'll be more willing too. Regardless of where on the "Possible" to "Likely" scale it is, the prospect of having 2½ years of exclusive negotiating rights with Soto *will* factor into the cost of acquiring him. So a team that would be looking to get just the 2½ years would still have to pay the extra cost of the possibility of the extension in order to be the highest bidder.

An extension is absolutely possible, it just won't be at a discount. Give him the biggest deal ever, make him the first $500m player, and you can extend him. If it's a team like the Dodgers, who have shown they can be competitive year in year out and have the resources to keep that up, I'm sure he'll be more willing too. Regardless of where on the "Possible" to "Likely" scale it is, the prospect of having 2½ years of exclusive negotiating rights with Soto *will* factor into the cost of acquiring him. So a team that would be looking to get just the 2½ years would still have to pay the extra cost of the possibility of the extension in order to be the highest bidder.

As good as he has been this year, he is still a career 118 wRC+ hitter overall (114 wRC+ prior to this year). And when trying to predict what he'll do the rest of the year, I'll always put more weight on the 2800 PA sample than the 400 PA one. Not that pre-2022 Bell wouldn't also improve the offense, but it then becomes far more of a marginal improvement which ought to be reflected in the acquisition cost. In other words, a rental like him is someone I feel is a perfectly cromulent deadline addition, but not someone I'd give up a whole lot for. I certainly wouldn't give up any prospect who is likely to impact the major league ballclub in the next couple of years, nor any of the true top prospects who are further away either. So no to Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Small, Chourio, Wiemer, Black, Quero, Feliciano and the likes. And I'd try to hold on to any of the better pitching prospects as the system seems position-player heavy. I'd probably look to trade from the toolsy but raw outfielders behind those mentioned. Guys like Gray Jr might not hold a ton of value on their own, but package a few of them together and it might be attractive especially to a team like the Nationals who are very much scouting/tools focused, and not as much about skills/data. Actually that last points was something I hadn't considered; Nats could be a good fit for a trade in the sense that the two teams are probably polar opposites (Based on the writing I've seen about the profile of different front offices anyway. Which seems solid, but who knows for sure...) in what types of prospects they value. Makes it more likely that a trade can be had that both teams will feel like they did well to get.

As good as he has been this year, he is still a career 118 wRC+ hitter overall (114 wRC+ prior to this year). And when trying to predict what he'll do the rest of the year, I'll always put more weight on the 2800 PA sample than the 400 PA one. Not that pre-2022 Bell wouldn't also improve the offense, but it then becomes far more of a marginal improvement which ought to be reflected in the acquisition cost. In other words, a rental like him is someone I feel is a perfectly cromulent deadline addition, but not someone I'd give up a whole lot for. I certainly wouldn't give up any prospect who is likely to impact the major league ballclub in the next couple of years, nor any of the true top prospects who are further away either. So no to Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Small, Chourio, Wiemer, Black, Quero, Feliciano and the likes. And I'd try to hold on to any of the better pitching prospects as the system seems position-player heavy. I'd probably look to trade from the toolsy but raw outfielders behind those mentioned. Guys like Gray Jr might not hold a ton of value on their own, but package a few of them together and it might be attractive especially to a team like the Nationals who are very much scouting/tools focused, and not as much about skills/data. Actually that last points was something I hadn't considered; Nats could be a good fit for a trade in the sense that the two teams are probably polar opposites (Based on the writing I've seen about the profile of different front offices anyway. Which seems solid, but who knows for sure...) in what types of prospects they value. Makes it more likely that a trade can be had that both teams will feel like they did well to get.

I think as long as they feel like Benintendi is passable enough in CF to play there maybe twice a week or so (Perhaps when the least fly-ball prone pitchers are on the mound) it'll be a good roster fit. Other days it'll be Yelich, Benintendi and Cutch rotating the LF/DH spots. Occasionally Renfroe too I suppose, but I like his defense in RF.

These guys know how to evaluate pitchers, if this is the guy they want, I'll trust that it's the right move. Underlying numbers look good, I doubt he'll continue to put up a .354 BABIP going forward regardless of defense, and a good defense will make it even less likely. As for Olson, Fangraphs seems like the outlier in rating him highly, and not overly impressive numbers in the minors. Again, the same "good at evaluating pitchers" thing goes here.

He was more passive at the start of the 2018 and 2019 seasons as well, before dialling in and starting to swing more. 2020 was an even more extreme version of that, and he never really got out of it. What makes me not worry about him though is that while strikeouts are concerning, he also walked 7% more than his career average for the same reasons he struck out more. What held him back was a BABIP almost 100 points lower than his career average, despite hitting the ball harder than ever. Basically with even average luck, you'd ahve expected a BA (And thus OBP) 50+ points higher, and all of a sudden he's having a great season. I think some of the passivity is warranted in that he's getting fewer pitches in the zone than almost anyone. Just needs to find that balance again, which I'm sure he will. The fact that he already transformed as a hitter once tells me he's capable of adjusting even more.

This being bumped made me go through the first pages, always fun to see reactions in hindsight. Mostly positive, some only cautiously so, some slightly negative and then there are those who absolutely hated it. "Awful awful trade. I hate it. Dear god what an awful trade." "Too much, hate this deal. Really hate it." "I feel violated." Not meant to call anyone out (Hence not quoting the actual posts with usernames), it's more about how different our views can be when we all have the same information to go on. But since it was mostly positive reactions, at least we were correct as a group in the end. Wade Miley signing thread is interesting as well, can't remember any thread with a wider gulf between the (hugely negative) reactions and the actual (very good) performance.

I'd say that whatever Diaz, Harrison, Brinson and Yamamoto end up doing, the trade will have been worth it. Brewers wanted an impact player immediately, and have gotten 2 MVP calibre seasons out of Yelich, with 3 years of team control left. If either of those four go on to be superstars I'll just be happy for them; both teams got what they wanted, and they're some fun players to watch too so everybody wins.

Whether they have been good at it or not in the past is entirely irrelevant, it's still what they have to succeed in doing if they ever want to win anything. There's nothing that says that a team has to be good or bad at something forever. If it's not the same people drafting, not the same draftees, not the same pitching coaches, not the same analysts, not the same strength coaches, not the same facilities, not the same minor league affiliates etc then why would it matter wha tthe previous results were? "Our predecessors were bad at developing pitching, so we shouldn't even bother" isn't the way to go.

If Grandal comes back it won't be as a result of the mutual option. It's for $16m, with a $2.25m buyout that he gets (as I understand it) even if the Brewers opt in and Grandal opts out. Why would he opt in for what's essentially $13.75m for one year? This time there is no qualifying offer, and he's having a very good season. He's getting more than the $18.25m guaranteed he got last year, for sure.

It'd be just as much of a single hard deadline if it was August 15th though.

After an initially very negative reaction, I'm starting to feel a bit better about it. Still not good, but better. I think my initial reaction had much to do with overrating Dubon. He's a guy I've liked from the minute we traded for him, and who I've felt irrationally positive about. From everything I've seen and read he's not a very high ceiling guy, at best an average starter but more likely somewhere between utility man and low-end starter. Yet I've somehow had the feeling, or hope, he'd exceed that. The fact that I really don't believe in Arcia, and was hoping Dubon could be the solution probably clouded things further. Pomeranz as a reliever has a 3.24 FIP / 2.83 ERA in 90-odd innings. Black will have 5 or 6 years of team control beyond this season, and has some serious strikeout numbers (13.5 K/9 in the majors, 16.8 in the minors) so there is a lot of upside there if he figures it out. Definitely a risky move though. I think I'd feel much better about it if the SS situation looked better, as I think Dubon would've been worth auditioning even if we know he wouldn't be a slam dunk guarantee. But I can only imagine the front office didn't rate him all that highly, and perhaps didn't want to see him struggle in the majors? With how Arcia and Saladino have played they really must not have liked him considering he was never given a chance, and both those guys have options.

Initial reaction was very much negative. But Pomeranz has performed well as a reliever, and a guy with Black's strikeout numbers and team control is intriguing I suppose so I'm not going to freak out about it and instead try to trust Stearns. Was hoping to get more for Dubon though, or to see him replace Arcia who I have very little confidence in.

After rigorous investigation, and after having consulted several experts, my conclusion is that those numbers are pretty damn good.

Mike Trout. Yeah I know, that's one massive contract, but it's still Mike Trout. The one guy who's definitely better than Yelich, the guy that is already HoF-worthy. The man's two worst offensive seasons by OPS+ were 2012 and 2014, where he had a 168 OPS+. To put that into a Brewers perspective, that's more than Ryan Braun, Paul Molitor, Robin Young and Christian Yelich (Though 2019 will change that) have ever had over a full season. In those two years, his worst years, he won RoY and MVP. One year that OPS+ lead the league. In the other it didn't, but he did lead the league in runs scored, RBIs and total bases. Mike Trout, at his worst, is an MVP. As amazing as Yelich has been over the last year, Trout has been that player for 8 years now. And he does this while playing a well above average CF. You could make a decent argument for younger guys like Acuña, Soto, Bellinger. But I'd still prefer what we already have in Yelich. But the best player of this generation? I couldn't turn that down.

It doesn't really matter what the players traded away do, as long as Yelich does what we acquired him to do. And he certainly is doing that, and more, so far. Also, when talking about "winning" trades, that tends to ignore the fact that it's not a zero-sum game, and that both teams can "win" a trade. One team needs production now and gets it, one needs it later and gets it. I hope the guys we sent to Miami make it big, and that 2018 won't be Yelich's last MVP. It's not an either/or situation.