Lathund

The MLBPA proposal also includes more revenue sharing (And a soft payroll floor), and I think that alone will go a long way towards more parity without needing a cap. Team payroll spending is highly correlated to team revenue, so more revenue sharing will see small market teams be able to spend more and take some money away from the Dodgers and Yankees and the likes and will even the playing field a lot. Finding a way to increase parity without a cap would be ideal IMO. Because the cap itself only benefits the owners. The rest of us may benefit from the side effects of the cap, but a cap isn't the only way to achieve that. There are a bunch of good ideas in the MLBPA proposal which adress these issues too.

I don't think a general rule to do or not to do something makes sense, it's always going to be on a case by case basis. But that being said, I think it's generally the right move to make the trade. One player, no matter how good, doesn't swing the likelyhood of a championship all that much. And if keeping them doesn't win you the WS, it'll most likely not have been worth it. Keeping them makes sense if there is a real chance of extending them, or if you truly look like the best team in baseball and you are a real WS favorite. That hasn't really been the case with any of the pitchers the Brewers have traded, so making the trades have generally made sense. Some trades have been better than others of course, but many of the players involved still have years left to turn things around. There is also the QO vs player debate; the prospects drafted from a QO (If you get one; injuries happen) are much more of a lottery. And having something, or multiple somethings/someones, after a star player is gone, matters. I see so many fans mock the "Bites of the apple" strategy, or claim it's not trying to win. I really disagree with that view, it's the only way to have a realistic chance of winning the WS. And that means being willing to constantly look more than one year ahead. Keep making moves that make you better 2-6 years from now, and you'll suddenly be much better 2-6 years from now. To bring it back to Peralta. Brewers have one of the best rotations in baseball so far this year. 3.19 ERA / 3.22 xERA / 3.33 FIP / 3.63 xFIP / 3.45 SIERA / 19% K-BB. / .206 BAA (Not including Miz showing tonight). All these numbers are, at worst, 4th in MLB, several of them lead the league. With the exception of career BAA (.203), Peralta rates worse than this for 2026 and for his career overall in all these categories. Which is not the same thing as saying he wouldn't make the team better right now, as him being here would replace some of the worse starts we've had. But it's also not really a position of huge need, and I think it's perfectly fine to give up a small edge short-term for a potential long-term gain. There are never any guarantees in this. Sproat might never get the stamina or command to be a great starter. But he has the ability to potentially be one, and as rough as it has looked at times, he isn't far off being a good starter. And you have to take these chances to find potentially great players. Because you can't sign them in free agency, and you can't trade for more than 1-2 years of them (usually anyway, and even then at great cost). If you play it safe and keep the known quantity, you might increase your WS chances for one year by a couple of percentage points. But you'll reduce it ever so slightly for years thereafter. And most of all, you remove the possibility of increasing that chance again. Or to quote Brad Pitt, "If we play like the Yankees in here, we'll lose to the Yankees out there". That is, if we use the traditional formula and conventional logic that most teams use, they will have $100-$200m extra (Or more, in the case of the Dodgers) to beat us with. The only way to even have a chance at truly being the better team, is to use a different strategy entirely.

Rengifo has that low BABIP for a reason though. The quality of contact isn't there, and he swings at so many pitches he shouldn't, resulting in terrible contact. He is getting unlucky to an extent, absolutely, but even if his true performance is more akin to his xwOBA, that's still only .287. He'd still be a below average hitter and a below replacement level player at that level. He offers nothing on defense or on the basepaths. And even his peak wasn't amazing; 111 wRC+ from 2022-2024 is perfectly cromulent and would be very useful on this team. But it's not the kind of track record that buys you extended patience. And there is no positive trend. Over the last two weeks his wRC+ is 29, while Hamilton and Ortiz are at 130+. He absolutely should not be in the lineup other than the odd rest day for those two. I hate being this negative about a player who is trying, and I didn't hate taking a chance on him to begin with. The only legit reason to keep him here is if they're waiting for Jett to clear Super 2 for sure, or if they think he or Pratt are truly not ready. But if so, keep him on the bench until they are. btw I know we're basically agreeing that his time on the active roster should be coming to an end, I just don't think it's realistic to expect a real upturn in performance. And that even the best case scenario, a return to his very peak form. is still just basically a league average player. I'd rather run with a prospect in that case.

Yeah I imagine the plan for today is going to be like yesterday; Gasser and Woodford for most, or all, of the game. Anderson and Drohan pitching an inning each perhaps, if needed. Would set them up nicely for the Cubs series. I wonder what they'll do with Gasser after this start though. Won't strictly need a 5th starter until the 27th if my math is correct. They might still want a 5th starter in order to keep them on an extra day of rest in which case he might stick around. But I suspect it'll be Patrick making that extra start at some point if needed, and Gasser being optioned for an extra bullpen arm.

Cubs are a good team who will be in the running for the division. But let's all remember that no team is ever truly as good as they appear during a winning streak; or as bad as they seem during a losing one. They've benefited from having played the most home games, playing those home games in cold weather where their HR prone pitchers (Imanaga in particular) don't get shown up, they've played one of the weakest schedules in baseball, and they're outperforming their run differential. Again that's not to say they aren't a good team, just that they're not really ahead of the Brewers or a true WS contender like their recent hot streak and their division lead might have you believe. Definitely will be harder to win the division this year than last though.

His overall career numbers are still those of a below average hitter (88 wRC+). So even if he wasn't declining, even if he played to his career norms, he'd still be a well below average player overall. Even at his peak (2022-2024) when he put up a 111 wRC+, that still basically only made him a league average player alongside the rest of his game. And his underlying numbers this year aren't good either; a .278 xwOBA is basically in line with Ortiz (.273). Him hitting more fly balls isn't a positive either, when it comes at the cost of line drives. LDs generate significantly better outcomes than fly balls, especially for someone like Rengifo with a 21st percentile EV. Sure, I think he's better than his current 44 wRC+. He'll play better going forward. But for him to be worth rostering, he'll need to exceed his career averages. And I don't see anything in what he's doing to suggest he's capable of that. If he was someone with higher career highs, I'd be more patient. I just don't see the value when even the absolute best case realistic scenario is that he'll end up an average starter. And most cases significantly less than that. I don't mind them taking a chance on him on a cheap 1-year deal like this, hoping to catch a return to his better days. But nothing suggest that's going to happen, so better move on IMO.

I'd honestly call up Pratt right now at this point. The one I'd have him replace is Rengifo though, with Ortiz becoming a pure defensive sub / bench player. Neither Rengifo or Ortiz offers much offensively, but at least Ortiz can play defense. Rengifo at his best was an average major leaguer, and he's far from his best. Give that playing time to someone who is part of the future. Like even if Pratt (Or Williams) struggle initially, I'd expect them to beat the 44 wRC+ of Rengifo.

I think trading one of these guys for a rental is the absolutely least likely outcome. It's been 10 years with the Stearns/Arnold regime, and trading true top prospects for rentals is something they've never really done, and something that doesn't really line up with everything else they do. They have traded some pretty decent prospects (Who turned into solid major leaguers) for rentals in the past, like Dubon and Olson, and that might continue. But I think that's different from the Mades and Peñas of this world. Brewers can't sign star players, and trading for proven quality players long-term is rare (Yelich and Contreras are not the norm!), so for a proper WS run, they need to develop them. So players like Made and Peña who both have that star potential as well as a skillset that should make them useful players even if they don't hit their max potential, are guys you keep. So I'd expect those guys to either be with the major league team, or if they trade their top prospects it'll be like the Yelich trade, i.e long term. I think, though, that with such a strong farm and so many top prospects, they could be more aggressive with the prospects the tier below them, and particularly players who don't have the tools to be stars.

If Ortiz continues this way, I don't think Pratt is very far off. Had a cold start to the season, has been much better recently, and the underlying numbers (Whether it's basic plate discipline or xwOBA) would suggest that he's not overmatched even when looking at the full-season numbers. Not amazing, just above average, but still not overmatched. Ortiz has option, and Pratt is on the 40-man, so wouldn't take any roster shenanigans to get it done. I think it'll be a couple weeks still at the earliest (Unless injuries force thier hand), but Pratt is closer than people think. There's no service time clock to worry about, so the bar is lower than for most promotions. And the performance to beat doesn't exactly raise the bar further.

One is a LHH 1B from Toronto with a great eye at the plate, and so is the other.

One good illustration of how early it is, and how small sample sizes we're talking, is that Cooper Pratt raised his OPS by almost 100 points yesterday, albeit over a double header. And not with some outlier 4 HR games or anything. He's been an above average or better hitter at every level he's been at so far, while always young for his level. He has shown good plate discipline, he's walking a lot and not striking out, he's not overwhelmed even if the results aren't there yet in AAA He has traits that the team believe will translate to major league production. Those are all far better things to look at, as opposed to just raw stats. Just looking at the surface stats, and regressing the BABIP and HR/FB rates would've told anyone that he wasn't truly a 35 wRC+ type player. Just hoping he really heats up so he can be in the majors soon.

I've always been surprised with how low this board (And fans in general) have been on Pratt. Or well, not super surprised, since most fans will just do some very basic stat line scouting. But it was always clear that he was far higher regarded by prospect evaluators in general, and the Brewers in particular. So while many people viewed him as just surplus trade bait, at least I thought it obvious the Brewers vieweed him as their SS of the future, someone close to making their debut too. But I gotta say, I still didn't see this coming. Which isn't to say I don't like it; $6.25m AAV is great value for the team. With his defense and base running, he could end up with Orlando Arcia's bat and the deal would still be OK, albeit obviously not what anyone wanted. If he's a below average hitter (say 90 wRC+) it's good value. If he's anyhting more, it's a steal. I think there's disconnect between how fans think, and how front offices think, when it comes to valuing defense at key positions. Like the value of running a guy with above average or better defense out at C/SS/CF every day, not needing to platoon or a defensive sub, even if they are even close to average on offense. One way to illustrate this is Dansby Swanson. Look at the FA deal he got after reaching free agency with a career 94 wRC+. As a Cub he's averaged 4 WAR/year with a 101 wRC+.

Willson played 1B in the WBC, William didn't.

Record: 92-70 Playoffs: Yes, NLC winner. No team in the division will be truly bad, so the records will be fairly closely clustered together. MVP: Jake Bauers. It's more of a breakout than MVP, since I don't think he'll play enough. But he'll have the highest wRC+ on the team (min. 100 PA). Team Cy Young: Kyle Harrison. ROY: Brandon Sproat. Most Surprising Player: Joey Ortiz. Won't be surprising to me, but with how people have written him off, an above average offensive season alongside excellent defense will be a surprise to many. Most Disappointing Player: Luis Rengifo. He's OK as a stop gap, but I think his defense and general lack of production will mean a short side platoon/PH role only. My other candidate would be Yelich.

Will Alec Bohm be better than a Hamilton/Rengifo platoon, with likely help from Jett Williams at some later point? Likely so, in my opinion. Will he, with his impending free agency after the season, be enough of an improvement to warrant giving up a MLB-ready starter and a top 70 or so prospect with excellent SS defense, and paying $10m on top of it? Absolutely not!