Lathund

Adames makes sense at a certain price, but he'll get way more than that, so he'll walk for a QO comp pick. Trade Williams, decent case for having done it this past offseason really. Pick up Rea's option, decline any others. Hoskins opts in unless he improves a fair bit. Rough calculations suggests that should leave at least a little room to add payroll, even if it stays at the same level as last year. I'd look to add in three areas; - Infielder; Ortiz and Turang can handle SS and either 2B or 3B. Need someone else in there. That could end up being Black, Wilken, Boeve. But that shouldn't be the primary plan going into the season. Trading for Rengifo, even if he's not a good defender, is one option. Not sure who else is available in trade, but probably the best route, free agency doesn't hold much. Bregman will be too expensive. Ha-Seong Kim could be interesting if he doesn't extend. But probably unlikely too. - Backup C. Could be Haase if he sticks around. Will eventually be Quero, but need to have an alternative in place. Won't be a huge spend. And the biggest one; - Starting pitcher. I actually think the staff we're likely to have will be fairly decent; Woodruff (Obviously a question mark, but I have faith), Peralta, Rea, Civale, Myers with Henderson, Misiorowski, Rodriguez behind. Eventually Gasser. But as we have seen this year, you can't ahve too much depth there. So spend most of the money available on the best player you can find willing to sign for 1 or 2 years. Or trade for one. Basically, I don't see a ton of movement on the major league roster apart from those spots. I imagine they'll try to upgrade the bench/platoon players; Monasterio/Haase/Sanchez/Bauers. Hoskins opting out will have a bigger knock-on effect if it happens. I think it'll be about opportunistic pouncing. With some versatile players on the team, and an already pretty strong group, a bat in any infield position, or catcher, would work. So whoever is available for less than they "should" be, is a target.

A 7 game lead is a lot, especially this late in a season, but it sometimes doesn't feel like it. One way to illustrate it is that if the Brewers fall a bit short of expectations and go .500 rest of the way, they'll have 89 wins. In order for the Cardinals to get to 90 (Brewers will almost certainly have the tie breaker), they need to win 30 out of 46 remaining games, a 65% win rate. Which is a 105-win pace. The Cardinals are a team with a negative run differential, who have shown absolutely nothing to suggest they're capable of that kind of pace. Impossible? No. But extremely unlikely. What makes it better is that if the Brewers go even one game above .500, Cardinals will now need a 109 win pace.

The Chicago White Sox DFAd Martin Maldonado on July 19, and have not won a game since.

One of the things I look for when I look through the minor league box scores is to see if Dylan O'Rae has homered, and today I found what I was looking for! No more U2 for me. Also 2 CD Rodriguez homeruns in the same game!

Henderson is the true most-protect lock, he'd 100% get picked. Smith is probably the second most likely to get picked, would make sense to protect him if the team expects to use him at some point. What I saw and read about Crow prior to his injury made me really excited about his future. Not sure what his timeline is, if he'll pitch in the minors at some point or not this year. So might be hard to know where he's at in terms of health, which would also make him a risky Rule 5 pick for someone. So might have a decent chance to slip through the Rule 5 draft. But I'd rather not chance it. Clarke and Collins don't strike me as the type of players teams would want to keep on their roster for the whole year, particularly not Clarke. Patrick I'm unsure about. Good surface-level numbers in AAA, but if the Brewers liked him as more than emergency backup/depth, I imagine he'd have been up at some point this year.

Paredes batted ball profile, combined with the switch to Wrigley, will see his power numbers drop a lot. He's still a good player, and a 3B is much better fit for them than a DH like Morel. But it's not a "steal", It's an interesting trade, with Paredes being one of the biggest outperformers of his xwOBA and Morel being one of the biggest underperformers. And they've both done so for quite some time. It's not surprising to see the Rays on the analytical side of the trade and the Cubs on the traditional side (See, for example, them signing Neris and re-signing Bellinger for two recent examples). I'll take the Rays side for overall outcome, but again the positional/timing fit works for the Cubs so I think both sides will end up fairly happy. Edman for Fedde is also a lot closer in value than you suggest, assuming Edman is healthy. Admittedly a big if after missing so much time, but he's a good player and Fedde is more likely to have his future ERA match his current peripherals than to continue as it has. Which is still a solid mid-rotation starter, but not too dissimilar in value from a healthy Edman. As for the Brewers, I really like the Civale and Mears trades. The Montas one I'm less enthused about. I don't mind giving up Junis and Wiemer, both had marginal value, I just wish they had aimed a little bit higher. I don't see what Montas really offers, it's not like he's been performing well and getting unlucky. I'm sure they see something, I just don't get what.

This was about what I, in my head, was looking to type when I entered this thread. Junis was gone after the season (And massively overperforming his peripherals) and Wiemer was never likely to get another chance here. But why Montas? Maybe they "know" how to fix his issues against lefties? But the fact is that neither his results nor his peripherals have been good. It's kind of a treading water type of trade, I don't think there would've been a massive difference in Junis vs Montas in the rotation for the rest of the season. But the people running things are not stupid, they don't take on more money like this without believing in something. I usually have some idea of what that is, even when I don't really agree with it, but this time I don't. As always I hope to be wrong.

Yeah a big part is the likely regression that would cancel much of the likely improvements he could make. There's also not that much room to improve in terms of plate discipline/contact. So could he improve his power? Sure, it's possible. I just don't see it when he's already about as extreme of a pull hitter as you can be. Adding raw strength is a possibility, but there has been no sign of it so far. Now would he benefit from trading some contact for swinging harder and thus hitting for more power? Some players do, and perhaps he's at such an extreme end of the scale that he will be one of them. But no guarantees, and it might not be a change he is suited to or able to pull off. Perhaps "extremely" was too much, but I really think he is what he is, and moving to a less favorable environment. A 25 year old who has just debuted I'd find more likely to find his way. A 25 year old with 1500 PAs is less likely to become something drastically different.

Paredes is an interesting case. Go have a look at his Statcast page; he doesn't hit the ball hard in any way, shape or form. And he never has. But his ISO is good, he hits a lot of home runs. How come? Well, now take a look at his spray chart. In parts of 5 seasons, he has never hit a HR that wasn't to left field. Only a few could arguably be called left center. Basically he is a dead pull hitter. Now the key thing to this is that left field in Tropicana field is 315 ft. Wrigley is a lot more than that. Now don't take this to mean I'm really down on the deal; Paredes still has great strikeout/walk numbers, he makes contact. And he has hit home runs away from Tampa too. He's also a far, far better defender than Morel, and overall improves 3B a ton. But it's rare to see someone who is such an easily identified regression candidate. He'll be a solid player with the Cubs, but he won't have that same power. Most of all, he is extremely unlikely to break out or get better. So at best he is what he has been (Which is a very good player). More likely, he's somewhere around an average starter or slightly better. Which is... fine. But that's not a light return for an average starter.

He was added to the 26 man roster before yesterday's game and was available to pitch.

Some great underlying numbers for Mears. A better defense, and no Coors hangover anymore will let that ability play better. He gets strikeouts, and Statcast says he is elite at limiting hard contact/barrels. Might sound odd to some given the ERA, but he's not even really a "we can fix him" kind of guy; he's already performing really well. Like with most reliever projects/retreads the Brewers pick up, I'll usually perhaps see something they like, but not enough to make me truly understand why they made the move. I just tend to trust that they know what they're doing (and they usually are). This one is fairly easy to spot. No guarantees, but I feel confident that he'll do well. As for the return. I suspect Blalock is a victim of being on the 40-man but not someone they see themselves using in the near future. With so many players on the IL, you need to use the spots. So while it doesn't strictly free up a 40-man spot, it makes more efficient use of it. I suspect Blalock will be someone who will see a decent amount of time in the big leagues, but is highly unlikely to ever be better than a #5 type or a swingman. So nice to have, but also someone you don't mind too much using to get something in return, especially when he's already likely to be lost in a roster squeeze. Can't say I've seen enough about Herrera to truly judge. Doing well as a starter in A+ at a young age. Mostly on the back of preventing HRs. So I suppose a lot of it comes down to whether he truly is avoiding the kind of contact that gives up HRs, or if it's a small sample thing. Probably a large range of outcomes for him.

Brewers are seemingly good at tweaking existing or introducing new individual pitches and grips and such. As well as some pretty good results at increasing velo. So as a general philosophy it would make sense to acquire players who have room for improvement in the areas they know they're good at improving, but who are already good at things theyr'e not as good at improving. Raw athleticism is harder to develop. And I should think that generally an athletic player will have an easier time to repeat their delivery (i.e more consistent command), and perhaps also an easier time changing mechanics if needed. Obviously this is a simplified take on things, and I don't know anywhere near enough about pitching mechanics to know what I'm talking about. But coordinating which players you acquire with what you're good or less good at developing makes a lot of sense. Like at the major league level, Brewers spend essentially nothing (Outside of arbitration salaries) on the bullpen. Because why would you, when you can "create" relievers from scratch. And instead focus the money elsewhere. I imagine that thinking applies to more parts of the organization.

Yeah I think Goldschmidt "getting going" again isn't a real concern. Age has finally caught up with him, the loss of bat speed is very real. Now players can compensate for some of that, and he proabably already has, but the old Goldy isn't coming back. As for the Cardinals in general I certainly wouldn't count them out, but their record also doesn't reflect their performance. Pythagorean record has lots of flaws, and small differences are meaningless, but the Cardinals are outperforming theirs by 6 wins. The run differential between the Brewers and Cardinals is over 100. When numbers get that big, they become meaningful. I also would not expect theirs, or any, pitching staff to remain as healthy as theirs has been so far. Brewers are the best team in the division, I think it's hard to argue that at this point. The issue that remains is that of course the best team doesn't always win; a slightly lesser team can easily be 4 games better over half a season.

Rosenthal has proven over and over that he doesn't understand how the Brewers operate, and what makes them successful. He's very much stuck in old-school thinking. One example of that is he was among the writers pushing the "Brewers are rebuilding" narrative hard in the offseason.

I'm cool with that. Barrios is a solid prospect, putting up good offensive numbers as a SS in A+ at a young age. But there's no shortage of promising young middle infielders, and he's some years away even in the best case scenario. Good trade IMO:

I like it. Has put up good underlying numbers over the last three years, FIP/xFIP/xERA all under 4 (And so was ERA in 2023). ERA is mostly a result from an elevated BABIP and HR/FB rate; stats that fluctuate, and that can be improved by having a strong defense behind you and some minor tweaks, in addition to just expecting some regression to the mean. Seems like someone who could thrive with the Brewers. Fastball velo is fine so that's not an issue. Another year of team control. And I like that the move happened early. Now that, as well as him actually having good underlying numbers, suggests it might be somewhat costly trade. I'll trust that they made a sensible deal though.

Anyone not impressed by Ashby before his injuries is staring too hard at the most surface level stat of all, ERA. You don't even have to scratch below the most shallow earth layer to see more; xERA of 2.99 and 3.75 in his first two years, a 3.24 xFIP. But to me the thing that made me really excited was that he was combining a high strikeout rate (10.7 K/9, 27 K%) with an elite groundball rate (58%). Now I remember looking at that at the time, and there was hardly anyone in all of the majors who had both. Normally a high strikeout rate goes along with more flyballs due to the location and pitches used (Such as 4-seamers up int he zone), so Ashby getting those strikeout numbers with a groundball arsenal was huge. He still had work to do to put it all together, but the ability to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground meant that it wouldn't take much improvement to command or poise or endurance for him to be really good. Sadly though, so much of that was due to that power 2-seamer he had. And I don't know if he's ever getting that back at the same velo. And that's a pitch where velo matters a ton. Absolutely no reason to give up on him though, he's got options for this year and next (And he'd likely pass through waivers if DFAd anyway) so let's just be patient. Shoulder injuries sometimes take time.

If the bullpen looks good and there isn't enough roster room, then normally I would say Williams would be the one to trade. By far the greatest return, and for someone who would be gone by the end of 2025 anyway. With him not due to return before the all-star break though, that seems less likely. I'm sure teams will want him to prove his health before giving up anything of value. Another thing that shouldn't matter, but might anyway, is the Josh Hader trade experience. Not the trade itself, which was great. But the timing. Might not want to repeat that, even if it would make sense.

Of course the game yesterday gets rained out, so we get to face Sonny Gray who we otherwise would've missed. Still favorites to win the series, but the recent performances against good starters means this first game could be tough. Also I really, really hope that we get to see some Joey Ortiz this series despite the righty starters.

Was hoping we might have been done with the automatic platooning at 3B after yesterday, but seems not. RHP means Dunn starts. I don't get it. It's not even a case of just looking at surface numbers either. Dunn has a .263 xwOBA, Ortiz .311. Dunn walks 4% and strikes out 38%. Ortiz 16 and 20% respectively. Dunn sports a .364 BABIP, Ortiz .321. And while you can't really read too much into platoon splits with these small sample sizes, Ortiz has so far performed much better against righties. Can't really be about defense either, Ortiz had a couple bad throws early on but is clearly a very good defender overall. So even if one was to think Dunn was better, it wouldn't be by a whole lot. And I don't buy the "Ortiz is a starter, but we're giving Dunn a run for now" reasoning either. Only good explanation would be if Ortiz was carrying some minor injury that needed managing. But at this point it's costing them. If Ortiz was the LHH and Dunn RHH it would be different, the distribution of RHPvsLHP would mean the playing time balance made sense. But it doesn't now.

It all makes sense when you realise which username the writer goes by on the site. It's par for the course (To continue the golf trend in these comments) to suggest these kinds of moves. Like there could be some sense in trading a reliever. I'd rather it be someone with less team control and/or no options remaining if so, but a Peguero trade is at least something that could be considered. Probably rejected rather quickly, but still considered. But trading Turang or Perkins at this point has absolutely no merits. Willy Adames is gone after this year, with Ortiz and Turang you have options at SS. Monasterio is the only other SS-capable player on the 40-man with any kind of success in MLB, and that's very brief and not amazing. I also don't think he's someone you want every day at SS. So you want both. For the sake of injury cover, for the R/L balance (Not that they should platoon with eachother, but it's nice to have a righty and a lefty rather than two of each. Comes in handy occasionally), for versatiliy (They both play multiple positions) etc. Plus the team is trying to win now *and* over the next few years. Someone like Turang who is controllable through 2029, and will be cheap for several of those years, is the kind of guy you want for that. Sure you could get some good prospects for him, but that just pushes the process forward. As for Perkins. Doing it right now would be silly. If Mitchell gets healthy and looks like a stud, if Chourio adapts quickly, if Frelick starts finding some XBH to make him a legit contributor. If Hicklen/Roller/CDRod/other look like legit 4th OF guys. Sure, if all these things happen, and you can get a good return then maybe. But all of these things have not happened. It's unlikely all of them will. Trading him right now, without all that, means Bauers would start every day in the OF. Wait until there is an actual logjam somewhere before even considering trading productive up the middle players with 5+ years of team control. These two contribute in all areas of the game, play multiple positions, don't have injury issues or character issues, they're cheap. The way a small budget team wins is by stacking their roster full of guys like that. Trading them only much later in their team control years. And when I say logjam, I don't mean being desperate to trade an OF because you have 4 starter quality ones. I mean more like when you have 6. Or 5 with no DH time available maybe.

I enjoyed that.

Keep Willy and take the comp pick. He's too important if we're competitive by the deadline. Devin I'd listen to offers to, and would have done in the offseason too. Just learn from the effects the Hader trade had, and lay the groundwork for handling it better.

Record: 84-78 (2nd NL Central) MVP: Contreras Cy Young: Peralta ROY: Ortiz Top Newcomer: Ortiz All Star(s): Peralta, Contreras, Megill Breakout Player(s): Turang, Ortiz, Chourio, Hall, Bauers Disappointment(s): Sanchez So I went with my second choice in some cases, to get something different. Like if I had to put money on it, I would go with Chourio over Ortiz, but I really do think Ortiz could be an impactful player straight away. Megill is a sneaky pick, probably won't have the name recognition to go to the All-star game, but I think he'll have the performance to merit it. Turang is going to be much improved on offense, the hard-hit data for Bauers will have indicated something real, and DL Hall is nasty.

A closer missing half a season is not an 8 game swing, not even close. You're massively overstating the impact of 30 innings, no matter how well those 30 innings are pitched.