TJseven7

It's a pretty thin line I think. If this goes even 2 months instead of one I think you're looking at no season. Menomonee Falls schools have just been closed for Monday. The dominoes will begin to fall now. Well the growth curve of this has rivaled 2009 swine flu. It escalated sooner but it has the same metric growth. This virus seems to kill 4x as many people as swine flu. Swine flu was going on for almost 2 years. Cov19 is closer to SARs MERS than swine flu in origin. It's FAR closer to swine flu than Sars MERS in spread. (thank god because SARs and MERs were extremely deadly but not very contagious. To say this could be awhile is an understatement. Quarantine helps protect the health system being overcrowded and delays for remedies but slowing down the spread will drag this out as well. Vaccines take 18 months. This was out of the bag before the lock down of Wuhan on Jan 23rd.

You keep preaching this, and I keep responding by saying that there is absolutely no indication that Houser's spot in the rotation is anywhere close to being in jeopardy. No matter how much you want it, you simply cannot wish it true. Every time Counsell has been asked about his rotation this spring, Houser has been a part of it. It'll come true. The question is how soon. Woodruff Burnes Peralta are all better. Small and Ashby are more talented. Lindblom Lauer Supak and File fit better in the rotation than in the pen. He will not be in the rotation in MKE's long term (beyond mid season in 2021) plans. Why they feel determined to put him into the rotation, I simply don't know. If they are that determined to increase his sale price, I hope it works and that it doesn't backfire and hurt the team's results and delay better options.

Why not BOTH? Burnes is a starter. No reason to have him in the pen. Start him or put him in AAA. Peralta is looking like a starter or a fireman. I can see the case for each. But there's still zero reason you have to START HOUSER who is worse than BOTH of these options. Lauer hurt. Ok you are in AAA. Woodruff Anderson Burnes Lindblom Peralta works just fine and is the PATH WE WANT TO BE ON LONG TERM! In 2020-2021 there is zero case you can make to say Houser is better than Lauer. Anderson goes FA, Lauer steps in. Lindblom will be looking to hold off the entire farm and 1 small year later there could be 2-3 guys knocking on that door.

I highly doubt they cancel the season. I could see teams quarantined as much as possible and empty stadiums though. There are TV contracts to fulfill. Attendance is nothing compared to those. Might be a crazy season though. Teams could get exposed and poof. 2 weeks of forfeits. I don't watch American news because I see it as pointless. They don't investigate the same as other countries do. They care more about entertaining. What's sad is that by February 20th or so I was convinced that this was going to hit the whole world and that the economy would hemorrhage. By Feb 20th they were already saying on BBC and others. Long incubation time, 2% death rate (spanish flu equivalent) heavily slanted to people over 60, kids may be the secret host because they don't show symptoms as fast, its not contained and has a much higher rate of transmitting than SARs. World has changed in 3 days... but we've been told for 3 weeks. Please don't give China too much credit. When it was first brought to their attention they dismissed it until it got out of control in China. If the 1st doctor who saw it and reported it was respected by the Chinese Govt, this would have been almost entirely contained in Wuhan. Sure once people started dying they went full force against it, but they were slow to react, then reacted with incredible severity. 23 days went by. The 1st report came 23 days before the quarantine on Wuhan. It was well on it's way by then. It also was their policy choice to open back up the viral mixing pot markets that they closed when SARs broke out. Fool me once, shame on you. This is 2 for them. Shame on them. Especially since they already had one and still... 23 days.

As much as people are complaining about Lindblom, he has a 1.1 whip and .231 BA allowed. ERA and GO/AO are the 2 things that are the least bit concerning. Anderson should start the year regardless. When healthy he starts, that was the point of adding him and unless he fully flops that doesn't change. Lauer looks the part. The question should be Houser or Peralta.

Fair enough but you can say that for every player on the 25 and also say that for any scrubby upgrade they get for next to nothing at the trade deadline. Lyles and Pom were worth a mint by that logic and they didn't get much of a return at the trade deadline.

Bickford: K numbers in Carolina were insane. It's crazy to think he's was still YOUNG for A+ in 2019. 2 ST innings 3Ks no H no BB. Wouldn't put MLB consideration past him this year. Yeah, and he added a 3rd nice inning today. Guy quietly had a heck of a bounce back year in Carolina and he seems to be back on the fast track with a jet pack on his back.

Bickford is really trying to be taken seriously again. Great showing in spring after a great showing in A+.

Wait, WHAT? Let me get this straight. You are making the case that if the COLLECTIVE of your team is on the fringe of the playoffs, its makes your best players WAR more expensive? What QB agent made that line of thinking up? Yelich is a 6 WAR guy. He's an 8 mil per WAR guy. WAR is an attempt to put a players individual impact in a vacuum and calculate their cost. He gets zero boost from the collective. I'm seeing the details of Yelich at a 7 year 182 mil extension. Mutual option unlikely. First 2 years basically untouched. 7 years added. 182 mil with 28 of it deferred in 4 mil chunks from 2029-2035. 182 mil is 22.75 WAR. The 1st 2 years do not count as they were original. 2022 is 6 WAR, 2023 is 5.5, 2024 is 5. (31-32 -.5 WAR per year) 2025 is 4 2026 is 3 2027 is 2 and 2028 is 1 (over 32 -1 WAR per year) 26.5 WAR in total so it's positive on WAR total. The more accurate look comes about if you have a sliding scale. I do have a sliding scale. (Joe and I disagree here) PER WAR 4 mil up to 1, 5 mil up to 2, 6 mil up to 3, 7 mil up to 5, 8 mil up to 7, 9 mil above. 2022 is 48 mil, 2023 is 44, 2024 is 35 2025 is 28, 2026 is 18, 2027 is 10, 2028 is 4. Oddly this comes to 187 and the 7 year extension value is 188.5. It is fair to predict Yelich will be a sizable value for the 1st 5 years of these 9. 6th is a small value, 7th is a small loss. 8 and 9 is where things get rough. This is right on the nuts. Dead on FAIR deal and you don't see FAIR on superstars very often. I didn't expect to see this and Thank You Yelich.

Sleepers: Dylan File: He's getting rated on some lists now but it seems like every single year the Farm has an arm that starts in the 18-24 rankings of the system and by July the minors ranking collective is freaking out about him. Even if he's not off the radar, I expect him to be in MKE this year and on everyone's radar. Nick Bennett: Small Kelly get plenty of love. Bennett was nearly as dominant. Great K rate, GB rate. Dominated in RM and Wisco. He shouldn't be ignored to the level he has been outside this organization. Felix Valerio: Playing at a high level Stateside while being 5'7 165 at 18 (even in RK ball) is no small task. RMV and Wisco this year should catch some attention. This years CRod. Bickford: K numbers in Carolina were insane. It's crazy to think he's was still YOUNG for A+ in 2019. 2 ST innings 3Ks no H no BB. Wouldn't put MLB consideration past him this year. Those are all breakouts as well but Breakouts: Tristan Lutz: Has been more than 2 years young and every level and pushed hard. It hasn't blossomed yet but he's going to turn that magical age of 22 late this season. Time to put up. Thomas Dillard: Put me on him as well. Time to go all in at 1b and position himself as far and away the best in the system at his position. Max Lazar: Big off season for him in AZ working out with the trainers. 6'3 frame that hasn't filled out yet. Tick up the FB and improve the slider and he's a whole lot more interesting. Still young so I don't see a huge jump up the rankings but could be that guy who goes from around 20 to top 5 in 2021. Comeback: QTC: Had a huge 2018. Had TJ. Had a very interesting Fall league showing. Braden Webb: I agree here too. Exactly why I don't like MiLB relievers. He's a failed starter and his FB CB can carry him to the MLB out of the pen. Trey Supak: Pattern. Every single year 2016-2019 he started at 1 level and finished at a 2nd level. Dominated at the 1st level, saw a down tick at the 2nd level each time. The next year he repeats the level he ended the previous year at and dominates. Crazy numbers here: BA allowed 2016 ROK .200 - A .274 2017 A .156 - A+ .241 2018 A+ .208 - AA .232 2019 AA .192 - AAA .325 (biggest age diff of his career by 1.4 years, high of his typical age diff by 2.2) A Jump 74 drop 118 A+ Jump 85 drop 33 AA Jump 24 drop 40 AAA Jump 133 drop ??? And he's in the best shape of his life LOL.

Mathius Rodriguez Aguilar Guerra types are also on the chopping block of other teams, they are cheap as well. High floor is a complete waste of time and the cost savings aspect of it is overblown because there are other high floor guys who get cut in the numbers game.

High floor guys are worthless or end up in AAAA. For instance, Arcia last year was a high floor guy by farm standards. The word is they are going to give Rasmussen a SP gig again this year. No idea why.

I'm perfectly fine with hyper activity. I wish they had more 2 year deals to allow that to be the case frankly. The only trade chip you can point to on offense is a hope of Arcia and maybe Garcia or a guy who you pick up the option and then sell them. The thing is: They didn't do this with Chacin when they could have. They got a 1b mid majors for Anderson I like what they did with Davies and Grisham. They didn't break off Knebel or Jeffress. We are years away from having to make a move on Hader They've cashed in a lot of prospect for playoff filler and Yelich instead of recycling them for younger lottery tickets. They didn't move on from Moose or Grandal. To properly do this you have to stuff the majors with home grown control or value signings and control them long enough for the next wave to push their way to a point where they displace someone. You can always do the Lind for lottery ticket type deals but when everyone's a 1 year deal and you are pushing for the playoffs this becomes a ton harder. A big reason I want Lindblom and Lauer in this rotation is to build that group of long term control. Once you have that you can go into a holding pattern and let your farm develop to a point where the next man up is READY. Right now this system has 5 J2 kids who aren't 20 who seem fascinating. We have 6 arms who look MLB capable in some role but they are 1-2 years away. MKE could pull this off, but you either need to hit a point where you have set a group in place that has control... or you need to lose to really kick this off. Woodruff Anderson Lindblom Peralta Lauer Hader Suter Houser Rasmussen is the way you do such a thing. Offensively, we aren't graduating anyone for awhile it seems. Even if we did, who isn't a FA next year?

It's not right or wrong. It's that this is an insanely aggressive optimistic placement in the rankings. He could be great, he could be nothing, I don't know, I'm sure they don't either. You can't really criticize a guess but it's a really risky guess.

This farm can stay the worst in baseball if it keeps churning out MLB talent. Last year it kicked Hiura Grisham Houser into the majors for good. Last year they were in the bottom 3 preseason. Pretty sure there are some top 27 teams who didn't graduate that much to the majors.

Well, they tend to get excited about guys who have those size speed numbers in the DSL. Um, 5'10 165 run grade 40? Well, they tend to get excited about J2s who get paid a 7 figure deal. Um, 200K bonus? Well, they tend to get excited about guys who put up some big results from the jump. Um, he hasn't played? He might play C but this sure is out of LF.

Teams aren't overly excited about guys who pitch 4.0 ball. TB has front of the rotation guys falling from the sky. MKE has 3-5 upside guys by most accounts. The Davies deal didn't net us multiple prospects. It net us Lauer, who we apparently don't want to start despite him having 2 years of service in the MLB already. Anderson netted very little. Didn't sell Chacin. Even if you do that with Lindblom after a good 1st year stateside. Woodruff Peralta Lauer Burnes Houser or File Supak Francis Bettinger Small in 2020. Houser isn't the best option now, and even if MKE flips Lindblom and only uses in house guys he's not even a top 5 option in 2021.

The 1st part is the main reason I want Lindblom in the rotation. I'm not sure of him being extremely good, but I believe he can carry north of 5.5IP per start. MKE doesn't have many of those. The Cards, Nats and Astros pens? They don't care about their pen. They have (or have had) Mount Olympus style rotations. We have Woodruff. The rest needs a significant jump to be considered anything but average. MKE has to shoot for a 4.0 ERA from the staff. The pen needs to drop that ERA considerably if they want to be a division winner. That's their build. However, Houser is a starter, Lauer is a starter, Peralta is a starter and I read today MKE sees Rasmussen as a starter. I'm fine with them being bullish on Kelly as a starter because he's young and has been healthy but this is getting downright insane. MKE needs a pen and that isn't just Hader and Suter.

And its a terrible decision both now and long term. Woodruff Houser Lindblom and Lauer or Peralta are all locked in for 3 years. Burnes has better potential. Lauer is a starter or a bad fit for the pen OR Peralta just got paid and you leave him in the pen despite better potential than Houser? In the next 3 years we are also looking at Small Ashby Supak File Francis Bettinger coming of age. Small and Ashby have much higher potential than Houser. You wedge Houser into a starter role you only have 1 spot open in the next 3 years and a bunch of options who are as good, if not superior potential to Houser. If you put Peralta into the rotation over Lauer you basically bury Lauer for good. "Guys will get hurt," yeah and then its Lauer keeping Burnes as a pen piece. It's backwards and our quest to develop 10 starters is going to kill our pen.

Lots of DSL kids shooting up the ranks, without doing much. Hello File in the top 30. Dangerously placed at 24. (see Peralta Woodruff) This pipeline release basically locks one of File Bettinger or Lazar into the top 6 prospect in our farm by July.

Kinda hard to project stuff when you only know what half the pen will be. I believe that if this team wants to put its best foot forward it should be like this. Woodruff, Anderson, Lindblom, Peralta, Lauer (in AAA until 5th starter) Hader Houser Suter Burnes (piggy backing Peralta Lauer) Rasmussen Phelps Claudio Black (show up or shuttle out when Knebel is right) Pick 1 random (in MLB until 5th starter is needed) However, that is very youth aggressive and I truly do not (ideally) want to see Burnes as a pen piece. The issues is that I do not believe in the other pieces we've collected and feel they should all be stuffed into AAA in the hopes to sort them out Perdomo Barker Wahl Feyereisen Williams Bickford Yardley et al. I've said for awhile. I do not want to limp into this year. I do not think this staff is ready for the start of 2020. I see the pen getting stronger in the middle of the year, trade or no trade. If they don't get aggressive and push Burnes Rasmussen and Lauer into the opening day 13 there's going to be a problems.

It's hader suter phelps (who looked bad) and garbage until they figure out which of these 12 options won't suck then finally get Knebel back up to speed and call up Rasmussen. It's going to be bad. Hader Suter and pretty darn bad.

I tried to do a count on it. It's literally impossible to fit him unless they go with 12 pitchers. Enjoy your showcase and go door2door peddling your goods lomo. He would simply take Gamel's spot, both Gamel & Healy would go to AAA That's some terrible OF defense on a Cain rest day. He makes very little sense in at 1b with Smoak.

A few people floated a roughly 7-200 extension and I laughed it off. I expected 6/240 or 7/280 when he hit FA. I thought there was zero chance he'd sign a 2nd early extension in his career.Strange dude. 34-36 should be real interesting but the next 6 should be good. Most interesting to me though is that MKE had quotes flying around earlier this off season stating MKE wasn't looking to lock into deals that went beyond the current CBA. Then in rapid succession Peralta and Yelich got one. It's as if they were waiting to see where talks were headed and saw them move in a way where it instantly became a time to buy. If MKE's spending is about to get a bump from the next CBA, this deal could look that much more manageable due to both buying power and market inflation.

I tried to do a count on it. It's literally impossible to fit him unless they go with 12 pitchers. Enjoy your showcase and go door2door peddling your goods lomo.