TJseven7

Except that with the loss of Knebel and the implosion of Jeffress the model broke for a long time. You need 3 RP who are sub 3 high leverage. MKE has that. It just took a long time to figure them out and due to short comings in the starting group they are still getting bounced around. Hader Houser Peralta are all between 1.5 and 2.5 in the pen. The rest of the 8 need to pitch right around 4.0. Claudio hasn't been a bust. He's been a filler piece. Guerra filler piece. The loss of Knebel and the flame out by Jeffress has caused a ripple effect and had the team throwing a number of pen arms that couldn't manage to stay close to 4.0 era. Because all the starters we threw at the wall flopped this year. No Miley Chacin gem. No Guerra or Suter even. They didn't want to block the young arms and when they young arms didn't work the emegency options behind them didn't hit the mark. It's sustainable. You can always stock up, hit some miss some and do it all over again the next year cheaply. Year to year its not consistent. We dealt with the high of highs in 2018 and the low of lows in 2019.

Do you really believe he forgot how to play defense? I certainly can't explain the dropoff this year, but it don't think he's destined for it to be a permanant issue. But while on the topic of poor comparisons, Yuni B.'s playoff success came as a 29 year old, and Arcia's was at 24. There's still reason to think Arcia can develop from that, where as Yuni was at his hypothetical peak, if he had that. As I said above, Escobar's dwar of 1.4 and 1.9 was strangely followed by a .6. Then a 1.5 by a .7. Ups and downs of baseball?

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia. Segura always had a higher ceiling than Arcia and a change of scenery for Jean was probably the best for him given the loss of his child, they aren't comparable at all. Sure, Arcia 'might' improve as a hitter. The risk that he does and you gave up on him too early isn't anything to lose sleep over, while a team that has a contention window needs to upgrade any and every position it can to maximize the return on that window. Most defenders of Arcia point to that hot streak during the very end of the season and playoffs. Sure Yuni Betancourt put together a very good playoffs in 2011. That's doesn't mean he wasn't an absolute horrible player. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some... Hasn't Arcia been and elite defender every year before this year? Escobar at 23 with MKE was a 1.4 Dwar. Had a 1.5 and a 1.9 with KC at 24 and 26. Arcia was a 1.3 at the age of 22. Arcia is only a .4 so far this year at 24. Escobar was a .6 at 25. Escobar had a 1.9 a 1.5 and a 1.4 and 5 years that average .6. They are different? Career .258/.293/.636 Career .246/.296/.663 Maybe you have recency bias on the defensive down year by Arcia? It's just a bad idea to give up on 24 year olds who have put up a .277/.324/.731 season with a 1.3 Dwar at the age of 22 in the majors.

So Arcia is bad, but going to be expensive in Arby? Moving on from him now would be fitting. We missed Escobar's best years. We missed Segura's best years. Why not miss Arcia's best years.

Well there's been a topic running around for a few months on the Major League board with the title "Arcia - Glove vs. Bat", which may be a few pages down now. The highlights from an analysis of his offense and defense: 1) During his time in MLB, Arcia is ranked as the WORST hitter. 2) Every defensive metric places Arcia around the 10th best SS in baseball out of less than 30 Full-time qualifiers. So he stinks with the bat and his defense is nowhere near elite. He's pretty much replacement level. What is to love about that? Is there something to love about having 2 replacement level SSs?

They are in on position to buy. They probably should have sold.

1st I can't read all the stuff you've sprayed all over the board. So to get it straight... So you'd send Ashby to the Reds for a Roark rental? That's the type of deal you wanted? A 4.25 run of the mill starter.

Yeah man I mean like they should have totally added Synder, Bum and Stroman. What were they thinking? Just go all in with a weak hand!

We all were expecting one decent starting pitcher, right? That didn't happen. This...all of this. As much as I wanted a "big" move, I would have been perfectly happy with a couple of Tanner Roark type acquisitions for the rotation. Instead they want to be taken seriously in a pennant race, when the only acquisition they make to their starting rotation is Jordan Lyles?? Really?? Sure, I get prices were high on the big fish, but it didn't cost Oakland much to get Roark. You couldn't have found two steady arms(at a lower cost) to put in the rotation now to at least give you a somewhat decent rotation until Woody gets back?? Yeah Chacin comes back...big deal, he's been AWFUL. Davies has been getting shelled..No, you realistically can't cover all of that, but if you go get two Tanner Roark types, you can at least likely "cover" up some of that. Which may be all that was necessary. To not come away with at least ONE reliable starter, if anyone says they are fine with that they are full of you know what.. You don't buy when you are under performing. That is what stupid teams do. That is what you want? MKE to do what stupid teams do? Enough already... no one was walking in the door and saving this season and making it a WS team. Why don't you get that. The price to add anything as big as you wanted would have obliterated the farm completely. That's not what smart teams do.

Allowing 4.69 runs per game has been the killer for this team. Lets remember last years team was Miley Chacin Anderson Guerra Suter Peralta Davies and Gio. That's not a list of world beaters. They simply did their job and didn't get rocked. Woodruff Davies Anderson are in place for next year Hader Peralta are locked into the pen. Claudio will be better. Houser will chime in somewhere in that. Remember the offense has improved by .3 runs per game. The pitching has been worse by a FULL RUN. The pitching staff has been a collection of gas cans. That's the issue they need to fix. They've fixed it before on a budget. Devin Williams, Rasmussen, Burnes, Faria, Black could play a part making this pen stronger next year. Avoiding the early season woes of Burnes and Peralta would help this team a lot. Davies 3.56, Woodruff 3.75, Anderson 3.89, Gio 3.48 Hader 2.29, Peralta in the pen 2.52, Houser in the pen 1.47 Albers Guerra and Claudio have put up another 145 IP at a 4.15 ERA and that's not all that damaging. Do you understand HOW BAD everyone else has to be to put up a 4.69 ERA with those numbers going on? 10 guys in the rotation doing plenty well enough and the team allows 4.69 runs a game!?!

Houston missed the playoffs the year after they started their ascent to the WS. Playoffs missed playoffs WS I have been pointing this out since early June. This team is based on stability depth in the pen and rotation. They whipped through 12 options this year and nothing stuck. That's very unlikely to happen again.

it's been reported that black will be optioned by the brewers. a player still needs to be removed from the 40-man, and it likely will be via designating a pitcher for assignment. if the brewers dfa a pitcher on the active roster, they're essentially playing with a 24-man roster tonight. if they dfa an optioned player, that player is off-limits to a minor league affiliate. aaron wilkerson is the scheduled starter tonight for the missions. trey supak and donnie hart are probably safe. jacob barnes or burch smith, probably not as safe. Wish Wilkerson was starting in Oakland tonight. Good luck Lyles.

So we dealt a SS who is in AAA at 24. He isn't producing at the same level as Perez, Spangenberg or Saladino. He projects as a cheap filler depth infielder. For that we got a good reliever and a lottery ticket arm who is on the verge of the majors while still being a lottery ticket. Team added 4 arms. 2 controlled and one of them that we actually can trust in the pen immediately. They gave up nothing that will make an impact. All 4 look like pen arms so Houser might be in the rotation to stay. The get is underwhelming but these aren't bad deals.

Diaz has had a phenomenal season in AAA so far. He deserves it. He's well on his way to being a top 100 again. At least Brinson is floundering. You don't want the team you traded with to go 4 for 4.

Funny but that's what I do when I get yelled at for saying something right and it proves itself right. You can find an example of that in the MiLB forum where I said pump the breaks on a prospect then got yelled at for being stupid.

Think about this. Was Jordan Yamamoto a valued prospect at the time? No. So you sold a good prospect as a throw in. Is that good value managment? No. It's not about who you got. It's about when you sold and for what value you sold at. Brinson has established value. Harrison was at a sell high point. Diaz concerned me most of the 3 because his stock had fallen despite him having incredible upside in the middle infield. Yamamoto was a throw in, and the wrong one. I doubt Mia bought high on Yamamoto like they did on Brinson and Harrison. It still doesn't make it a bad trade. It makes him the wrong filler piece to include. If MIA demanded him as part of the deal then fine. If he was a value filler throw in, that was a mistake.

It's not a dig, it's showing the truth. With Yamamoto doing well with Miami, he's on here telling everyone how he proclaimed Yamamoto was the piece that terrified him at the thought of losing when the Yelich trade was made. He said nothing of the sort. In general, everyone here should rest comfortably that the trade was a slam dunk, a home run. Even if all 4 Marlins end up contributing as major leaguers, we don't need people being revisionist about the deal. The Brewers got more than they possibly could have asked for. It's actually quite astonishing given what Yelich has accomplished that people are still looking back in fear at what was given up. Strange you'd feel that's the best use of your time though. It's strange that my words weren't stronger on Yamamoto then. I didn't like including a lottery ticket arm who looked promising. Lottery tickets don't have high value and they can end up with them. Peralta stuff heading out concerns me for that very reason. Every time. I know I didn't want the big name pitching prospects included for sure but I thought I put up more of a fight about Yamamoto. I was looking at Yamamoto as a piece of concern even before he took the mound in AA this year. You can find posts on that I'm sure but I'm too lazy to do it. I never expected to see him in the majors yet that's for sure. So its strange I didn't say more at the time. I don't like adding deep minors promising lottery tickets. Lind hammered that home. Carmona was another one I was nervous about. Trading matured value gets you the proper value. Adding in young guys who show promise don't have the service time to prove their worth. If you think I'm trying to look like I know more than I do, you're being a bit too cynical here. Did I expect Yamamoto to do what he's done this year... hell no. I didn't like his inclusion. Didn't like it before this year started in AA. His 68 scattered innings in 2018 didn't change my mind.

Jordan Yamamoto was the piece of this deal that terrified me. I continue to hate that inclusion. He was a lesser piece in the deal who could end up being worth much more than he was at the time. So far, yikes.

Bumpity... Diaz Harrison Brinson off to a complete yuck fest. (Diaz is walking atleast) Jordan hasn't pitched yet.

The only guy I really worry about is Diaz. I doubt brinson can match yelich within his control. Harrison, well I dont value corner of as much as I should. Yes athletic enough for cf but I don't see that being his path. Yamamoto is interesting but a good lottery ticket. Then comes diaz. I hate giving up diaz. If he pan out at 2b he could be an absolute monster. Like team altering monster. 2b with his potential are not common so that part freaks me out. I have to assume stearns feels huira would have arrived at about the same time and both are 2b only mlb players. Otherwise you treat Diaz like an elite arm and you just dont trade him. Really hope he nailed the Huira Lutz picks. They'd erase what we lost here if they pan out at a high level.

What is it again... 1 war = 8 mil? So 10 war. If he has 2 more years like last he's damn close already. Averaged about 4.5 a year so far.

26 27 28 29 30... it's literally the perfect age window. He hasn't been a bad player any year and he broke in at 22.

Love

Agreed. My big worry is this: On a team that struggles to get players on base, two of the three players with the best OBP skills in the system are now gone. Michael Reed went to Atlanta as a six-year free agent and Isan Diaz has been dealt for Yelich. That leaves Trent Grisham, who led the entire system in walks. Stokes is a close second, and I think his track record of staying healthy and his "almost Harrison" numbers last year made Harrison a "sell high" candidate. Hopefully, the June draft will see the Crew get more, or some players will develop that skill better. But that skill in the system has taken a big hit now. You want OBP... well we just got cain and added yelich. That's 2 360 obp types for years.

I'd like to see Broxton go for some prospects. Braun in left, Yelich in center, Santana in right. Or Santana in center and Yelich in right. Phillips as 4th OF. Well from everything I've read yelich doesn't have the arm for RF and I'd really prefer not to see santana in extended time at CF. If we are in on Cain I assume 1 thing and 1 of 2 others. We add cain santana has a deal already inplace and that's a near given. Then Braun splits rf with phillips or moves to 1b. Yelich Cain Phillips is fantastic defensively. Yelich Cain Braun/Phillips works... especially with phillips D subing every late game.