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ILBrewerFan

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Everything posted by ILBrewerFan

  1. ILBrewerFan
    There are issues with using excel's regression. Some times estimates can be incorrect, but we're talking out to decimal places which for this purpose is probably irrelevant. This problem does get worse for larger samples (they must be short cutting the solution to the NE's or something). Anyway, excel is fine and you can do things in it that would take you days to code in sas. If your looking to handle bigger datasets I would highly suggest 'R'. Like I said it's free and the language itself is easy to learn, plus there are help files and message boards everywhere.
  2. ILBrewerFan
    Sorry, given your "stat-savvy'ness" I thought you would be familiar. It's just a statistical software package. Any of the other packages should be able to read in .dB files. SPSS S+ R R & S+ are basically the same thing and R is free, so you can download it and use it for free. The documentation is good and free as well.
  3. ILBrewerFan
    I just read them right into sas. I'm not good with access either. I can probably get you a sas dataset if you have access to sas.
  4. ILBrewerFan
    I used this for my senior paper in college (of course, about the Brewers): Thanks. I found that one, but I believe those are yearly numbers. I was looking for something a little more disaggregate. It's a nice history however so I think I'll grab it anyway. Thanks again.
  5. ILBrewerFan
    Does anybody know where you can download statistics (preferably at the lowest level possible (i.e. Player/Game/AB). Any format (.txt, .db, .xls, etc). Thanks, Shannon
  6. ILBrewerFan
    Weren't you kind of describing a binomial, but pi changes for each team they play? pi would be lower on the road against the Astros, and higher against the Pirates? If this was directed to me, yes I was. A binomial is a multinomial with the outcomes being "success" or "fail". The problem is that the probability changes from series to series (team to team). If you assumed a constant win percentage for the Brewers then you could use a MN over the remainder of the season.
  7. ILBrewerFan
    Right it isn't a multinomial. I stand corrected. Thanks for the info end. Forgot about the changing probabilities thing. Guess I should dust of the counting books.
  8. ILBrewerFan
    Hey, I laughed at this one http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Sweet! I'm taking this show on the road!
  9. ILBrewerFan
    It's been discussed somewhere. I believe one of the moderators said he'd leave it here for the time being?to reach a larger audience?then move it because of the statistical information it contains. Yeah, I was just trying to "make a funny" because I was writing out formulas and stuff. This is what happens when statisticians try to make jokes.
  10. ILBrewerFan
    It sounds a lot like a multinomial. I posted this in another thread, but it may have been missed. I'm not sure how you calculate the Brewers winning probabilities by team so I will give you an example using a six sided die. First of all the multinomial pdf is as straight forward to calculate as a binomial and it looks like this for a random vector (X1....Xn): f(x1..xn) = m! / (x1!*x2!.......*xn!) * p1^x1 * p2^x2 .......*pn^xn Alright, back to the example. Suppose the die is unbalanced so that the probability of observing a 1 is 1/21, a 2 is 2/21, and so on. (X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6) is a random vector that counts the number of times that number comes up in 10 tosses of the die. m=10 trials, n=6 possible outcomes, p1=1/21......p6=6/21. What's the probability that in 10 rolls I get four 6's, three 5's, two 4's, and one 3? 10! / (0!0!1!2!3!4!) * (1/21)^0 * (2/21)^0 * (3/21)^1 * (4/21)^2 * (5/21)^3 * (6/21)^4 = .0059 So back to baseball and out of the world of colored balls, urns, flips of coins and rolls of die. I would have to think about it some more, but I believe you could treat each opponent as a random variable and the remainder of the season as the number of trials. This is where simulation is handy. You would have to think of all possible outcomes (2 of 3 from Chicago), (2 of 6 from Houston), etc. However, based on your probabilities and plugging the function above you could run through most combinations. (Do you have access to sas, S+, R or any other statistics package? You could whip through this stuff in seconds)
  11. ILBrewerFan
    Maybe someone who actually knows can clear this up. My response may get this thread immediately kicked to the "stats forum". Anyway, I can't say for sure unless I see exactly what you are doing, however, the binomial distribution and the normal distribution are related. As your sample size goes to infinity (large N) the binomial becomes a normal distribution with mean=n*p and variance=n*p*(1-p). So for sufficient N it will be "bell shaped". Most times the binomial is anyway except for extremely polar values of p. A multinomial is an extension of the binomial as well, but I won't bore you with that. Simply that if two random variabls are distributed with a MULT dist their marginal pdf is BIN. Sorry, I like this stuff.
  12. ILBrewerFan
    I'll be there as well. Wearing Blue, not white, thank you. Let's go Crew!
  13. ILBrewerFan
    Well, that was craptastic. Go get 'em tomorrow boys!
  14. ILBrewerFan
    I'M NOT GIVING UP YET.......LET'S GO CREW.... ooops, Durrington? Oh well, never mind.
  15. ILBrewerFan
    We need another big ninth here. Jenks, Miller, Bombyan, Hall (PH), Helms (PH), Clark....... Sounds like runs...
  16. ILBrewerFan
    I'm feeling this one slip away. At least it's Lieber up.
  17. ILBrewerFan
    I don't know about mojo, but that is the most bizarre photo I have ever seen. Come on CAPPY!
  18. ILBrewerFan
    Rollins? Cripes!
  19. ILBrewerFan
    Dag Nabbit
  20. ILBrewerFan
    I think them booing him the night his cousin died in Iraq pretty much sums it up.
  21. ILBrewerFan
    Who's limping? Uke said someone was limping? Please not Jenks! Come on 3TO.
  22. ILBrewerFan
    why do our starting pitchers seem to struggle in the early innings? maybe it's just top of mind for me, but it seems like a recurring theme.
  23. ILBrewerFan
    Last night was "Wall-of-Fame" night, tonight was alumni night. Uke said when they announced his name all the fielders turned their backs on him. Good stuff.
  24. ILBrewerFan
    Uke said it's an alumni night.
  25. ILBrewerFan
    Let's get it done boys. 3.5 back would be mighty fine.
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