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True Blue Brew Crew

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Everything posted by True Blue Brew Crew

  1. True Blue Brew Crew
    I don't know how anyone can watch Walker Buehler get touched up for 4 runs with the stuff he had and think the Brewers can just roll anyone out there to lock this down.
  2. True Blue Brew Crew
    Let's get some BMIR and make this game armchair-manager proof.
  3. True Blue Brew Crew
    I'd like to remind everyone that the winner of tonight's game forces the loser to win 3 of 4 to take the series. Play to win tonight and worry about tomorrow - tomorrow.
  4. True Blue Brew Crew
    Go from Chacin throwing wiffle balls up there to Knebel throwing 99. Not an easy adjustment.
  5. True Blue Brew Crew
    Remember that also goes for later this series when some of the brewer relievers are facing dodger hitters for the 4th and 5th time Not the same as 3 consecutive ABs versus the same pitcher in the same game.
  6. True Blue Brew Crew
    When you've seen it a 3rd time around...and also when it ticks down to 95-96 and is straight as a string. And when you've got a better read out of the hand of the pitcher's other offerings. There's much that goes into why pitchers often drop off precipitously as they go repeated times through. Even some of the guys with the most dominant stuff suffer from it. Buehler actually was one who typically holds up well. But hey, its the playoffs.
  7. True Blue Brew Crew
    98 becomes easier to hit the more chances you get to see it.
  8. True Blue Brew Crew
    Does that help people now recognize what seeing a guy for a 3rd time does for the batter?
  9. True Blue Brew Crew
    Ron Roenicke nods his head in approval and says Hi.
  10. True Blue Brew Crew
    They were taken out at almost the exact same time. Miley faced the leadoff batter a 3rd time and was taken out. Chacin faced the #2 hitter a 3rd time and was taken out.
  11. True Blue Brew Crew
    Chacin 3rd time through in 2018... .293 BA .344 OBP .436 SLG .780 OPS
  12. True Blue Brew Crew
    Definitely possible. He was available in game two, so even more available today.
  13. True Blue Brew Crew
    Winds are getting quite strong and blowing in. The team that hits best with RISP will likely take this one. Can't be long ball dependent today. It's just math and it doesn't guarantee anything but if I'm not mistaken, the Dodgers were more dependent on HRs to score runs this year.
  14. True Blue Brew Crew
    Even for the rare pitchers (true Aces) whose numbers hold up 2nd and 3rd times through a batting order, they become more useful when you can use them in high leverage roles 2-3 times every 5 games as opposed to just 1 every 5. When a middle reliever limited to one trip through the order posts the same sub .600 OPS that Scherzer does, you can now find more useful ways to have a Scherzer impact more games. Now obviously the real Max Scherzer is not likely to transition from an Ace to a mere out getter. This is going to take time to implement. And the last places to embrace this will be the big markets. Big ticket #1s will continue to migrate to the biggest markets. But as small markets embrace the effective subdivided use of their entire 12 man staffs, and benefit from the result, the idea of forcing yourself into a 5-man rotation when you're lucky if you have even 1 guy capable of going deep into a game effectively, is foolish pursuit. As the number of pitchers called upon to pitch 5-7 innings dwindles, pitchers will be groomed for 2-3 inning, more frequent appearances. Statistically, more than 80% of MLB starting pitchers have no business being counted on to go deep into games. So the question is, why make them? It will take time to transition, but it's a foregone conclusion when the current model has most starters allowing MVP-like batting numbers when they face a lineup twice. Especially when every arm on the roster is statistically more likely to post a better result coming in fresh.
  15. True Blue Brew Crew
    When literally every capable major league pitcher carries an OPS against under .700 their first time through a lineup, right there that's your bulk. Let the Ben Sheets numbers sink in. Literally every Brewers pitcher right now is better coming in fresh than Ben Sheets going a 2nd time through. This isn't a proposal or a hypothetical. It's already begun. The only question is how long until it becomes the new norm.
  16. True Blue Brew Crew
    Position flexibility and platoons aren't going away. The Brewers can sign a 2B (Eduardo Escobar) to play there everyday and then become a versatile, near every day player at 2B, SS, and 3B once Hiura comes up for good at the end of May. Basically sign a player to plug in at 2B to start the season and then once Hiura arrives, have that signee be someone who is versatile enough to cover everywhere. I'll be shocked if the Brewers don't make a strong push for Escobar. And that means no money or room for Schoop.
  17. True Blue Brew Crew
    These numbers also show that many, many more pitchers would be classifiable as "dominant". If the 50-80 fewer innings Scherzer pitches are covered by guys getting the same results, you're not sacrificing anything. You're simply using Scherzer in the spots of most leverage, impact, and value. In other words, exactly the way the Brewers used Hader this year.
  18. True Blue Brew Crew
    Yes you absolutely would cut their innings. You'd cut them so they can impact twice as many games. They don't award wins on the field based on innings pitched. And the bonus would be fewer arm injuries. The best of the best, like Scherzer would still lead the team in innings. He'd also lead the team in appearances. Both would be less taxing on his arm than the current usage.
  19. True Blue Brew Crew
    Let's take a look at Ben Sheets, the closest thing to a homegrown ACE the Brewers have had this century. Here are his career numbers for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd time through a batting order... 1st BA OBP SLG OPS .241 .283 .398 .681 2nd BA OBP SLG OPS .260 .306 .420 .725 3rd BA OBP SLG OPS .272 .317 .449 .766 EVERY SINGLE CURRENT BREWER PITCHER has been better their 1st time through an order this year than Ben Sheets career 2nd time through the order.
  20. True Blue Brew Crew
    When I get a chance, I'll post the numbers for the 2nd time through and 3rd time through a lineup. Hint: they're often ugly. There are many reason for this. Fatigue, familiarity for the batter, and most importantly - the need for the pitcher to rely more on their 3rd and 4th best pitches. Taking away the need for multiple trips through the order means much less need for a often weak 3rd or 4th pitch. And in turn much more use and opportunity for pitchers who just never are able to develop a 3rd or 4th pitch.
  21. True Blue Brew Crew
    Look at those batting averages and on base percentages allowed! Especially if you took out Gonzalez's numbers most of which were accumulated with Washington. Batting averages in the low 200s and on base percentages below .300. The first team to successfully transition their pitchers to this form of usage is going to lead MLB in every pitching category. And it won't require high priced arms.
  22. True Blue Brew Crew
    Here are the current Brewers' pitchers 2018 opponent splits the 1st time through the batting order... Pitcher - AB AVG OBP SLG OPS Burnes - 135 .200 .273 .326 .599 Cedeno - 124 .210 .300 .290 .590 Chacin - 297 .192 .260 .300 .560 Gonzalez - 260 .246 ..332 .335 .667 Guerra - 228 .225 .303 .352 .656 Hader - 270 .130 .218 .252 .470 Jeffress - 269 .182 .258 .271 .530 Knebel - 196 .194 .287 .372 .659 Miley - 129 .225 .286 .310 .596 Peralta - 119 .176 .315 .294 .609 Soria - 236 .225 .280 .339 .619 Woodruff - 126 .206 .265 .317 .582 Highest OPS against is .667. Not a single OPS above .700. Some teams now see that they can absolutely shut down offenses by not giving batting orders a 2nd look at a pitcher on a given day. This is no doubt the future.
  23. True Blue Brew Crew
    Josh Hader is showing the folly in having your best arms impact only 1 of every 5 games. You say there will always be room for a Scherzer every 5 days. I say there's even more use for a Scherzer locking down a game every 2-3 days. Not in the sense of being used as a 1 inning closer. But to be used as a guy you introduce into a game you have the lead to shut down the heart of a lineup and then stay on through to the last out. Today's aces will be future guys who come into games your team has the lead and then cover the final 3-4 innings. Instead of 30-35 starts, they can impact 60 games.
  24. True Blue Brew Crew
    The time has come to unleash Peralta.
  25. True Blue Brew Crew
    Where this will really pick up steam is with the lower revenue ballclubs. If you can't afford a bunch of aces and can't come close to the payroll of the LAs, NYs, Bostons, and Chicagos of the world, your best shot is to get Ace-like numbers from guys going once through the order. And as with Moneyball and analytics, once the small market teams have success with it, the bigger markets will follow suit.
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