True Blue Brew Crew

Yep, more putting the ball in play, less striking out. The acquisitions of Cain and Yelich helped them make strides in this area, but obviously more lineup reconstruction is needed. If wasn't obvious by now, the Brewers do not believe in bunting. When a leadoff batter makes it to first or second, they want 3 cracks at delivering a hit to bring the runner in. And just putting the ball in play can advance the runner. Schoop and Moustakas both struggle in this area and would take way too much payroll. Keeping both of those two would eat up payroll and set the team back in its pursuit of cutting down unproductive outs.

With the Brewers top 8 controlled initial out getting arms (IOGs) all being RHPs, the Brewers have set themselves up for quite a bit of maneuvering needed to get the desired balance of opposite handedness. It could be as simple as coming to acceptable terms with either Miley and Gio. Either way, retaining or adding 2 LHP at minimum, only brings the IOG group to 10. No amount of piggybacking makes room for 10 of these guys on a 12-man staff. Since the signs on the wall point to the Brewers wanting to retain all 3 of the young trio, you have to expect someone from the group of Anderson, Davies, and Guerra to be moved. Likely two. If it's not as simple as bringing back Miley and Gio, you're looking at free agency and/or trades. The immediate thought would be to go after a Corbin but that's obviously a longshot given the demand and price he'll command. I don't have a list of targets just yet, but I imagine it will come from undervalued lefties who either struggle deeper into games or are current left-handed relievers with the ability to be stretched out. You don't need to pay through the nose for a 200 inning guy when you only need him to go through a lineup twice. The Brewers could also settle for one LH IOG at the outset and add one during the 2019 season but the likely tandem-pairing with at least some part of the rotation has me thinking they want two from the get-go. The fun will be in identifying the Brewers under the radar LH targets.

If neither Miley or Gio are enticed back, the Brewers are going to have to bring in a lefty or two as initial out getters. They can't let 2 LHP walk and replace them with more RHP. I don't see the fit for Harvey or Gray unless there's a massive overhaul of the current controlled arms. You've got Chacin, Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and Guerra all factoring into the 2019 group of initial out getters. They're all RHP. With the shift to piggybacking and tandem starts, you can be sure the Brewers are going to want to pair opposite-handed pitchers to dictate matchups. I have to believe Stearns wants at minimum two left handed pitchers added to the tandem mix. That's going to require some pretty significant maneuvering. Gonna be a fun and interesting offseason. As an aside, the need to find 2 LHPs whether from outside the organization or by resigning Miley/Gio, provides all the more reason not to expect Schoop or Moustakas to be brought back at their current pricetags.

LouisEly, you're right on. You can safely subtract the words "I think" from your sentences above. There's no doubt it. The analytics definitely show those things and the Brewers are definitely going to exploit it going forward. The tandems and piggybacking are coming and they will be here to stay.

The Brewers went after so many targets before they had to settle for Moustakas and Schoop. The Brewers had obvious roles and needs to fill and those were simply the guys they came away with. Cain and Yelich were not simply great players, they both fit the mold of giving great at bats and good to great defense. Stearns wants guys with defensive value, positional flexibility, and who make contact. I'll make just about any friendly wager with anyone who thinks Schoop or Moustakas will be back. Those guys not only don't fit the mold, they're way too costly to retain. $25 million that can be spent so much better elsewhere.

Did someone just throw a link to Chris Sale's splits to refute the idea that the vast majority of MLB starting pitchers have a significant dropoff their 2nd and 3rd time through the order? No one ever said pitchers like that don't exist. There just so rare and coveted that a small market team doesn't have much chance of one being around very long. If you're lucky they become that dominant by your 3rd year of control. Then you have 3 more years to enjoy them before they're off to greener pastures. And that window you have them is only if they stay healthy. Rather than banking on getting a true unicorn of a pitcher like that, get ACE-like numbers from your entire staff by limiting them to 1-2 trips through. This whole shift in usage is quite the paradox. The dominance these guys are showing via limited exposure has many of you thinking they'd keep right on mowing down batters if given 3 more innings. It doesn't work that way for so, so many reasons. Btw, McCalvy has now twice hinted very recently that tandems are likely to be utilized in 2019, just as I predicted. Now why would they not push Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta to be possibly the next Sale, Clemens, Verlander, or Martinez? For one, they're not going to use pitchers that way going forward. Two, getting away from 35 starts and 200 innings will better protect their arms. And three, none are ready with their secondary stuff to be those guys and may never be. Peralta is the one of those 4 who actually has had success 3 times through. But why pursue the unicorn when you literally can replace them with just about any MLB pitcher for one time through and get better results than a 3rd time through with your initial out getter. I'll pull this out one more time. Every pitcher on the Brewers playoff roster had better stats their 1st time through a lineup than Ben Sheets career 3rd time through. That's the best pitcher the Brewers have developed in the last 20 years and you were still better off bringing in a fresh arm rather than giving batters a 3rd look at him.

I would rather our best hitter getting more at bats rather than caring about being a prototypical #3 hitter. I would rather he come up to the plate with more runners on base.

Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a 12-man staff set up like this for 2019... Initial Out Getters - Two to Three Times Through Guys Chacin Burnes Peralta Nelson Anderson (or a LHP TBNL) Guerra (or a LHP TBNL) Davies (or a LHP TBNL) With any of Anderson, Guerra, or Davies to be moved at some point to make room for a LHP or even two LHPs. Mid-to-Late Game Out Getters - One Time Through Guys Hader Knebel Jeffress Woodruff Jennings or Cedeno or a LHP to be named later Woodruff could very easily be in the top group and swap places with Anderson, Guerra, or Davies. If Soria isn't moved, they'll likely have to stash someone in AAA at the outset. I would expect one if not both of Anderson/Davies to be moved in the offseason. Need a LH initial out getter or two and the Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff trio are ready to break camp in the majors.

Woodruff, Peralta, Burnes, Nelson, Chacin, Anderson, and Davies can all be in the rotation if they piggyback. Heck, Guerra could be in there too.

I'm not going to be disappointed because I've stated over and over that he's an initial out getter for the Brewers out of spring training in 2019. I don't use the term starter for the same reason Counsell doesn't use it. Where you'll be surprised is if you think he's going to be deployed like a traditional starter in a 5-man rotation. He'll be managed in a variety of creative ways. There's no sense trying to get Burnes to the 35-start, 210 inning level when the team has no intent of calling on pitchers to do that anymore.

Folks, almost every pitcher is a 3-4 pitch pitcher. They all either actively work on or toy with a variety of pitches. It all depends on what role they're called on to do. Relievers are former high school or college starters who just didn't have major league caliber 3rd and/or 4th pitches. So they depend on their 1-2 MLB quality pitches and appear in short stints. The ones who have at least 3 different looks of MLB quality are the ones who stick as starters. Burnes throws 4 pitches but only 2 were MLB ready when they temporarily switched him to the pen midseason. If they felt his curve and or change was ready there was plenty of need for a starter when Suter and Davies were on the shelf. He was still having trouble with his secondary stuff in AAA. sveumrules was not being deceptive or disingenuous showing that Burnes was a 2-pitch pitcher with the Brewers this year, Heck, Ben Sheets was essentially a 2-pitch pitcher. No one is downgrading Burnes when they say he no lock to be an ACE or even a once every 5 days guy. He could be a once every 3-4 days guy who starts one appearance and then piggybacks in relief the next. We're only saying he has yet to show he has more than 2 MLB grade pitches. He has a curveball he wasn't afraid to throw in the majors and that's a good start. He didn't need to throw anything other than fastballs and sliders because opponents were only getting one look at him. If the Brewers thought his curve or change were ready he would have been brought up to start this past year. Simple as that. It doesn't mean he won't get there. We all anticipate him being an initial out getter in 2019 right from the get go. Call that a starter and in the rotation if that's what feels comfortable. It just won't be entirely what you're used to.

Bummer. That would've been a nice deal at that price for the Brewers. Much better than Schoop at 10 million.

They had him working on his curve and change in AAA to the detriment to his numbers. They finally determined he'd be of better use to dominate out of relief with 2 pitches in the majors. He just hadn't made enough progress yet on those 2 pitches. There's no doubt he's going to be furthered pushed to be more than a dominant reliever. He still needs more work on his secondary offerings to be one of your innings leaders. I do believe he'll get there.

Until they have a bullpen full of guys conditioned to all go 3 innings on average, I think they'll need a couple traditional guys to cover innings. Chacin is an obvious one. One of Anderson or Davies, is likely another. 2 spots could be piggybacked by the foursome of Nelson, Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff. Still calls for one more traditional guy is my guess. Maybe they are able to get Miley back. Maybe Nelson can go right back to being a horse, though I doubt it. Or maybe they uncover another reclamation. As they go this route, it doesn't leave much room for 1-inning guys on the 12-man staff. That likely means guys like Soria and Cedeno are valued less and less.

True. My guess right now is as part of a piggyback combo. He's an initial out-getter for sure. They'll have a rigid plan for him.

Yet he's boldly proclaimed to be a 4-pitch pitcher when he's barely thrown 3. He was dominant and ready for the role he was called upon for in 2018 because he could get through 3 innings with two pitches. He got the ability to improve his curve and change but many of the best arms in the game fail to pull it off. What teams are starting to realize is why bang your head against the wall trying to make these guys perfect 3-4 pitches when they can almost ALL dominate with their best 1-2 in shorter spurts. You still need some to be able to go longer than 3 innings. Those will be the guys who have 3 or more MLB pitches. I expect Burnes to be one of those guys.

I think I asked about this earlier in the thread because I am not sure how this work for young pitchers but isn't it the most innings pitched in any year? Burnes had 145 last season so if that's the number than I think 180 is certianly attainable and at that number I would think they could manage his innings to make sure he can pitch postseason when his starts would likely be shorter anyway. You're right about his total innings being higher in 2017. And the risk of extending Burnes in 2019 is lower because of it. The Brewers simply don't need to count on anyone to go 6 innings, 35 times going forward. It will drive everyone nuts for awhile when the best arms, of which Burnes is among, max out at 4-5 innings. Even if that plan isn't fully enacted in 2019, what would be the sense in pushing Burnes to fit a model being phased out?

There's simply no way he can be in the traditional sense. Unless you want to watch him shut down come September. I agree he's an initial out-getter. It's probably safe to say he's a 2.5-3 pitch pitcher right now with projectable ability to be a 4 pitch pitcher. He's not a 4-pitch pitcher today. When we talk about the future model with your best guys throwing 150 innings, Burnes is definitely one of those guys.

There's a very apparent reason he wasn't starting for the Brewers in 2018. He was a 2-pitch pitcher who could dominate in shorter spurts. And he was a big part of their late season success in that role. It's also why he can't just be penciled in to make 35 starts and pitch 200+ innings in 2019. There is a way to have him be one of your stalwarts from Opening Day right on through October while throwing 150-160 innings though. Are you mixing up Burnes with Woodruff? I thought Burnes has four pitches that are at least ML average. Whereas, I thought Woodruff is maybe a guy that might get dinged up hard the third time through a lineup. Nope. Burnes is further along than Woodruff though. Burnes certainly does not have 4 pitches MLB average or higher just yet. He hasn't even reached the point of using his 4th pitch (changeup) in the majors much less gotten it to the level of being an MLB average pitch. He IS one of the best initial out getters on the team however. And he's definitely got a shot to be a guy who goes longer than most going forward. I'm less sure that Woodruff will be more than a "once through guy" (OTG) but I still have that hope for him as well.

They really need another contact bat. Moustakas and Schoop weren't guys that fit the profile of what they want long-term. They were what was available at the deadline at a price the Brewers were comfortable with. If the Dodgers hadn't trumped the Brewers offer for Machado, it's very likely neither would have been Brewers. I expect both to be gone and the resources instead directed at someone or someones who better fit the mold of defense and putting the ball in play.

There's a very apparent reason he wasn't starting for the Brewers in 2018. He was a 2-pitch pitcher who could dominate in shorter spurts. And he was a big part of their late season success in that role. It's also why he can't just be penciled in to make 35 starts and pitch 200+ innings in 2019. There is a way to have him be one of your stalwarts from Opening Day right on through October while throwing 150-160 innings though.

Just want to remind everyone once again that Corbin Burnes only pitched 125 total innings this year. He certainly seems ready to be one of the initial out getters, but a traditional, season-long, starting role from day 1 seems out of the question for a team with playoff aspirations. To expect 200+ innings would be foolhardy. And you want that guy come October. Innings will have to be monitored to make that happen. The more I think about this, I think the Brewers will scrap the traditional 5-man right away in 2019. They're not going to want to hold back the young trio (Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) but they have to be mindful of innings as well. Perhaps they'll be some piggybacking combined with 1-3 traditional starters. I can't wait to see what they unveil for the start of 2019. I'm quite confident it won't be what people have grown accustomed to.

The problem is they were able to easily replace Fielder (in fact they found someone better in Ramirez), scored the most runs in all of baseball in 2012 and didn't even make the postseason, because things happen. Opportunities like these are hard to come by and they let this one get away. They also never got anywhere near the performance from their key pitchers after 2011. Shaun Marcum anyone? There was a lot that went into the decline besides Prince Fielder leaving. This team's pitching is young, on the rise, and most importantly has a manager and pitching coach who know how to get the most out of them. The 2011 team also had nothing in the way of reinforcements from the farm, certainly not a bat the likes of Huira at it's weakest spot. The 2011 team also had stretched it's payroll to an unsustainable level at the time and couldn't use the saved salary from Prince's departure to plug holes. This team is nowhere near as limited financially. 2011 was a culmination in every possible way and that was known going "all-in". 2018 was never looked at as the final step. This team is still building.

The assumption that a pitcher who exits a game after a dominant 3 inning stint would have continued to mow down batters will be the hardest notion to shed. The stats show the dropoff for most pitchers but plenty of people don't bother to look at the numbers.