monty57

I will be interested to see how Counsell does. I remember after 2011, someone interviewing Corey Hart asked how the team would handle losing Fielder. His answer was that the team's biggest loss would be Counsell for how he helped the players in the clubhouse. This was after Counsell had his 0-fer-50-something and posted a .503 OPS and 39 OPS+ for the season. I hope Hart was right, and Counsell does have a clubhouse presence that motivates players to do better, and be a better team. Going forward, I also hope he is able to work with young players, as we will probably see a lot of them on the roster over the next few seasons. All-in-all, I never had anything against Roenicke, but we'd probably be a lot better off it this move and the moves we are probably about to make would have been made a couple of months ago.

So does "reset" mean "rebuild," and it's good that Counsell already knows the minor leaguers who will be playing for the Brewers over the next few seasons? or Does "reset" mean it's important to know the minor leaguers who will make good trade bait to reset the roster with veterans next year? It probably means the former, but I'll have to see it happen before the skeptic in me will believe it.

and by that I mean with popularity and marketability, into his mid 30's. That certainly had a lot to do with the signing. Attanasio has said that he believes fans buy tickets to see players they know. I'm sure there were visions of the ticket sales surrounding milestones like 3,000 hits, 400 HR, etc., and the feeling that they'd have a "face of the franchise" like the Brewers haven't had since Robin Yount retired. From the owners' eyes, there have to be two goals: Making money and winning ball games. When Attanasio signed this contract, he probably felt it would help with both.

I think that if Garza is traded, we will do some type of rebuild. I can't see a scenario where fans will believe their "we're a playoff team" hype if Lohse and Garza are both gone from the rotation. If fans don't believe it, they won't buy tickets, which seems to be Attanasio's major motivator. In that scenario, the question is whether they do a half-assed "rebuild" and hold on to "name" guys like Gomez, or if they will go all-in and trade everyone with value who isn't going to be around as the team emerges from their rebuild. If they hold on to Garza and only trade the guys who will be FAs after the season, then I think we'll continue on the recent path, probably signing someone like Uribe to play 3B and someone like Lackey to fill out the rotation. The marketing department will start getting the "we're upset about last year, and ready for the playoffs in 2016" propaganda ready, and they will hope it works to sell enough tickets to remain profitable. Judging by his recent statements, that would probably cause Melvin to retire and a new GM would be put in place who understands how to run a franchise like the "old school" Cubs organization.

Even if Braun once again becomes a .900 OPS guy, the years he will keep up that production will be during our rebuild years (Melvin himself has started saying he sees a 4-6 year rebuild, so I'm starting to believe it will happen). By the time we actually put a decent team back on the field, Braun will be in his mid-to-late 30's, eating up a lot of the team's payroll for a declining player. In other words, hurting the team when it hopefully will have a shot at the playoffs. I think it's more likely that he is very hard to trade, but if he can show signs of regaining his former form, we should trade him. Let the playoff-hopeful team get his good years, while taking on the 16-year payment obligation and sending us some much needed quality prospects to help us as we emerge from the rebuild.

And Doug did indeed throw Mark under the bus: 'Mark has never been through this before, so...' Note that Doug said he thought 2011 and 2012 was our last window. Well if you add Doug's 4 years to 2012, then you are in the game in 2016/2017. But Mark got way involved in 2013 and 2014. Doug has indeed driven the bus over the inexperienced Mark. Why oh why did Mark not just trust Doug. Hmmmmm. Doug's bum well and truly covered, hey. That's pretty much where I've been coming from since we did what we did in the 2010 offseason, and why I've felt that Melvin has actually been the "calming force" in some small way saving Attanasio from himself. Without Melvin, I think we'd be in even worse shape than we are. I wish we'd have sold a little sooner in 2012 and been able to get something for Marcum, and I wish we'd have taken the Dodgers up on their offer for Ramirez. However, since then, every offseason we'd see quotes from Melvin along the lines of "we're pretty much set, I don't see any big things happening." Then Attanasio would step in and make a "name" signing. In other words, Melvin has been trying to do what a few others and I have been asking for, but the owner hasn't let him. Melvin will be gone soon, but the owner will still be here. He's a smart guy, so hopefully he's learned from this, and hopefully his next GM will not be a yes man, but rather a good baseball mind to whom Attanasio will actually listen. I also hope that some of the moves that have been implemented over the past couple of years (Gallardo trade for prospects and not "MLB ready" and setting the focus of the draft on "young with high upside" rather than "high floor/get to MLB quickly") will shave a couple of years off the rebuild. Finally, I hope that if they decide to rebuild, they rebuild. I don't want to see a situation where they still put focus on selling tickets, so they hold onto some "names" in an effort to entice the fans to purchase tickets. As tough as it will be for Attanasio, a rebuild has to have one focus... stock the franchise to make the team as good as possible for a future date. I still think a full-scale rebuild was avoidable, but here we are. Let's hope at least that our presumably long-term owner will learn a lesson from this, and let's hope that we get some high-upside talent (and not just salary relief) from the upcoming trades to give us something to hope for over the next few years.

Here's today's MLBtraderumors note: Rival executives are anxiously anticipating a Brewers fire sale following the club’s awful 5-17 start to the season, Heyman hears. One exec listed Carlos Gomez, Khris Davis, Jean Segura, Gerardo Parra, Kyle Lohse and Francisco Rodriguez as players who will draw interest, noting that Jonathan Lucroy is probably untouchable, while Matt Garza and Ryan Braun are somewhat overpriced. Seems like the rumors are coming from other GMs and not Melvin/Attanasio. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Nice posts bcd80 and reilly. I have seen a lot of people saying we need to target only guys in the low minors so everyone can come up together, but I think that limits you almost as much as only looking for "MLB ready" guys. Just get the best talent you can, regardless of level, and I don't care what year their expected to reach the MLB level. Some guys will be in AAA, some younger, and some may already have some MLB service time. This is not 100%, but I generally expect that when you trade away "proven," you get multiple "unproven" guys, so hopefully if we start trading guys we will get talent at all levels of the minors, and probably some that will be on the MLB squad immediately. Not talking guys with 1-2 years of control left, but rather guys who have some MLB service time. You may also have to take a guy back to even out some salary (i.e. Ramirez for a promising A ball prospect plus some underperforming schmoe making $4MM in his final year). I'm not overly concerned about what this year's team looks like when the trades are done. If we go "full rebuild," we'll still be able to see Nelson progress as a Brewer, see if Braun will regain his form, and will probably have one or two young guys from the trades that will get hyped to try to keep ticket sales up. Really, I'm concerned about building a stream of players that come up from the farm over the next handful of seasons. That will require talented prospects at all levels coming back in trade. As bcd80 said, just get the best talent you can.

No one is saying finding young players is easy. They are saying we should be making an effort to get younger when the odds are that our older players are not going to play to career norms. Agree here. Also, players are under contract, which eventually leads to free agency. If we were still in the era where you'd draft a player and have them for their career, things would be different, but since "team control" is an issue, decisions have to be made. Often the best decision is to trade a player prior to them reaching free agency. I would argue that this should be the usual scenario for smaller market teams, and holding a player to free agency should be the exception which only occurs in somewhat unique circumstances. It shouldn't be seen as a negative to trade a guy away, as you are presumably getting equal value back. The only time it's a negative is when you are forced to "salary dump" players for nothing, which we may be forced into this season. Also, things don't even out. You should expect everything from here out to play to expectations. If they were a .500 team to start, we should expect them to play .500 the rest of the way. I argued "down" on this last year, so I'll argue "up" this year and disagree with you here. We're not flipping a coin, and it's not like a .500 team wins every other game throughout the season. A season is filled with players having hot and cold streaks. Usually this doesn't happen all at once, but for the Brewers over the past few seasons it has. While last year everyone was hot at the same time to start the season, this year everyone is cold to start the season. Just like last year's players had to cool off, at some point this year these guys will heat up, and the team will play better. Last season, the hot start made a ".500-ish" team a few games above .500, and this year I think the cold start will lead to a few games below .500 if no moves are made. This is why I hope the team begins selling sooner rather than later. If they wait until mid-July, the team will probably have shown signs of life, and Attanasio may not be as willing to make the drastic moves that are probably necessary to help the future of the franchise.

I'm not sure why any Brewer fan would be upset at signing guys hoping they would play to their "career norms" Age is a big factor here. Ramirez and Lohse are well past the stage where most players are retired. Ramirez has obviously been declining for a few years, and while I have been amazed at how well Lohse has held back age, I will not be surprised if he has indeed "hit the cliff," and is a worse pitcher today than he was a year ago. It happens to everyone. Both of these guys were expected to play huge roles (cleanup hitter and #1 starter). Meanwhile, there are a lot of unheralded young players and average-ish veterans. Most players have played worse than most reasonable people would have expected, but this is a very streaky team, so it's not overly surprising that they would start out as ice cold this year as they were red hot a year ago. I've said, and continue to believe that if no changes are made, they will probably end up around where they have ended up the past few seasons, which is somewhere around .500 - probably a little below .500 with this cold start vs a little above .500 with last year's hot start. People forget quick how big of a joke this franchise really is and the recent success does not go back very far. Unfortunately, I can't forget that. I also don't forget that the Packers and Badgers were jokes for most of my youth. Both of those teams got leaders in charge who wanted to build to be continually good, and not just to be good in a short window. I know people will say "you can't compare one sport to another," but I disagree. You can make comparisons between sports, or to successful businesses, or a successful marriage, or anything successful for an extended period. It's about planning for long-term success vs looking for immediate gratification. If you plan for long-term success, there will be ups and downs, but you should see more sustained success. If you look for immediate gratification, there are very few areas in life where you will be successful for more than a short period. I've never wanted the franchise to revert to "joke" status, but it has been painfully obvious for a few years that if we continued on the path we were taking, we would soon be a "joke" once more. I believe it could have been averted, but everyone was happy with immediate gratification, and anyone who mentioned "the future" was not really taken too seriously. It's kind of the "new" American way. Now we're here, and our two paths seem to be either trade 'em all and hope to be relevant again in a few years, or trade a few of 'em and sign some vets this offseason to continue to slap lipstick on the pig. I didn't want to get to the point where a complete tear down-style rebuild was necessary, but it sure looks like our best hope now. At least it's understandable, so the most likely way we become a "joke" is if we continue to run our team like the Cubs under Wrigley Corp, putting "name" players out there to sell tickets and maximize profit, remaining good enough to give fans hope, but not really good enough to have a real shot at winning it all. Because the team was so putrid in the late Selig years, becoming the Cubs seems like a good option, and that's really, really sad.

but all it will take is to be 5 games over .500 in both May and June, and things will look a bit different. That's why I hope the Brewers act quickly. All it's going to take is a small win streak and Brewer management can say "wait a minute, let's hold on to these guys and see how things shake out." Then we end the season with 70-something wins, and we lose the chance to get whatever we could have received in trade. Plus, if the owners lose money this year (which is probably why they're already talking about moving players as we have a record payroll) they will probably try to recoup that money over the next few seasons, meaning lower team payrolls. If we just lose Lohse, Ramirez and Parra, and don't exercise the option on Broxton, the owners will simply have the option of not replacing them, and we will really stink next year, although the owners will probably be profitable. What intrigues me is that Garza's name has been in the rumors. Lohse is a no-brainer, as he's a free agent after the season, but Garza is not, and if the team were simply going to add a couple of free agents next offseason to try to stay relevant, they would not trade Garza. If he is traded, then the Brewers are probably going into full rebuild mold, as they won't have a rotation without him...at least not one they could sell the fans on as a "playoff caliber" rotation. That means we should probably expect Gomez and maybe Lucroy to get put on the trading blocks when they get off the DL. Of course, most baseball rumors are wrong, so I won't believe it until I see that a deal is done. Edit: here's the MLBtraderumors bite Teams are looking at the Brewers as the first team who could start selling, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. One executive speculated that Milwaukee could make everyone available except Jonathan Lucroy and Jimmy Nelson. Sherman thinks Carlos Gomez could be a big trade chip if the Brewers decide on a full rebuild and don’t think they can sign Gomez to an extension. That's about what I'd expect from the Brewers if they do go into rebuild mode. They'll want to hold onto "face of the franchise" Lucroy, even though he's their best trade chip, but Gomez (another great trade chip) would probably be on the block. Kind of a surprise Peralta wasn't mentioned, but he is about to hit arbitration. This season could get really interesting for "armchair GM" Brewer fans.

So Matz around 50 can't be had for Segura, but Segura would be good enough to get around a #50 Renfroe or around 50 Hedges? Segura is interesting in that the potential is there, and has been shown (albeit for a brief period) at the major league level. Some GM would probably jump and offer a really good prospect for him. If so, then I think Melvin should take the deal because we have Sardinas who is MLB ready and Arcia who will be MLB ready very soon (if he's not already). If we can't get a top guy for Segura, then we shouldn't trade him just to trade him. He's cheap with team control, and even if we're rebuilding he could still be a Brewer for a year or two before he's flipped. But if we can get a really good prospect back, we should make the deal.

Given how cheap he came from the Angels - and for how much of his salary the Angels paid, it would have been worth a flyer, IMO. Say as a platoon partner for Khris Davis at worst. In the trade the Rangers/Angels just made, then yes, although as Logan said that probably wasn't a possibility. A couple of years back, when he was a free-agent prior to signing with the Angels, there were people here that wanted to make a huge free agent offer for Hamilton. A few posters here were referring to that, and I was responding to them.

If Melvin is offered a top 50 prospect for Segura, he'd better jump quickly. Segura has talent but I don't know if he'll ever put it together, we have Sardinas and Arcia knocking on the door, and Segura has already refused a contract extension, so he's probably not someone we'll see as a "core" player for the long-term. MLB-ready stud LHP with six years of cheap team control for Segura... yes, please.

Yeah, it's a shame for the rest of the league that the Dodgers decided to hire a competent GM, but they still operate in a different stratosphere financially then the rest of the league, and their entire future doesn't revolve around whether or not a prospect becomes a star. It would take a heck of a lot to pry a top 10 prospect from anyone, but it could be done, and MVP caliber CFs and catchers are the type of guys they could be traded for. Lucroy and Gomez, with their talent and contracts, should be two of the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball and are worth more than any single minor league player (and I like prospects). Of course not every prospect is going to be available, but if the Brewers decided to trade Gomez and/or Lucroy, they should get an elite prospect plus some other talented prospects in return. It just depends on whether or not the Brewers are at the point that they'd trade away the two guys who have the potential to bring back a lot in trade. I doubt they will.

He is 33 now, so I'm not sure how much difference a hitting coach would or will make. I'm certainly no expert on the situation, but wasn't Narron more of a life coach to him than a baseball coach? With just a simple outsider's knowledge of Hamilton's life, I would think that having a trusted "mentor" around could help. No one knows, and I do agree that as a Brewer fan all things being equal I'm glad we didn't sign him to a monster contract.

Good to see Braun heating up. Probably too late for the Brewers' chances this season, but it's sure nice to see him hitting the ball well again.

From my untrained eye, and from Bill constantly saying "it's good to see the guys going to the opposite field," it appears that the entire team's approach this season is to take everything the other way. I like players hitting outside pitches the other way, but they still need to be able to pull pitches and drive them out of the park. Could the coaching staff have implemented a "go the other way" approach that accounts for the complete lack of power from this year's squad?

I feel like if MLB made some unprecedented rule change allowing certain PEDs, PED = Performance Enhancing Drugs If what Braun was suspended for does not enhance performance, but instead helps the player heal (kind of like Cortisone), then it would be declassified as a "PED" and would be something that could be prescribed by a doctor. I agree with you that it is not likely to happen, but if the rumors are true and it does not indeed enhance performance without serious health risk, then I believe it should be allowed. If not, then Cortisone should be made illegal, as Babe Ruth didn't have access to Cortisone, so by current logic it's unfair that current players get that advantage. You could probably even take this argument to say that Tommy John surgery and arthroscopic knee surgery are "unfair advantages." Of course, I have no idea if the drug Braun was suspended for does enhance performance, or if it is something that just helps players heal faster. I would hope that people who do know something about it are consulted by the rules committee.

I hope you are right. The Brewers could use something good to happen.

so monty57, are you saying that you believe Ryan Braun that he never took PED's except that one time during the playoff run when he was injured and trying to get healthy? I believe that linking to an article quoting a few players who played with Braun for a couple of weeks a decade or so ago saying Braun talked a lot about a brief friendship with A-Rod and that he had a cool car does not prove anything. He may have used PEDs with A-Rod, but you that article in no way proves that it occurred. Despite the friendship with A-Rod, and the rampant drugs at the U of Miami, you believe that the Ryan Braun the Brewers drafted was naturally built? I don't claim to know anything about what Braun did or did not put in his body. I have friends who have used all kinds of drugs, but that doesn't make me a druggie. That is guilt by association, which is not guilt. You are speculating about things you could not possibly know. It's possible he did all kinds of things, but it's also possible that he did not. I know people are upset with what's panned out over the past couple of years with him, and I guess everyone is free to type whatever they want on an internet message board, but I don't think it's fair to put out opinions and assumptions about people as fact. I leave that to reporters and politicians :-) I think it is a reasonable assumption that now that Braun is facing a lifetime ban if caught with PED's again, he is finally off them for the first time since High School and the .262 BA/.753 OPS Braun of the last 2 years is all he ever would have been without chemical enhancements I think that's an assumption. Maybe time will tell whether or not it's reasonable. Melky Cabrera got a gigantic contract after hitting .100 OPS points higher than his recent career uptick. A-Rod got a $250 million contract. Poo Holes got a $250 million contract. There are lots of reasons to do steroids once in the league. Valid point. Money is a big motivator, and the mammoth amounts of money floating around the MLB can motivate anyone to do what they can to get a bigger piece of the pie.

You were stating that without PEDs Braun would hit and be built like Scooter Gennett. The converse of that is that with PEDs, Scooter Gennett would hit like Ryan Braun. Since it is believed by many that a large percentage of MLB players were (or maybe still are) users, and if someone like Scooter Gennett used, then he would hit like Ryan Braun, then it would seem logical that a large percentage of players in MLB should hit like 2011 Braun. Since very few players hit like a 2011 Ryan Braun, I think it's logical to believe that Braun, with or without PEDs is a far better hitter than Scooter Gennett, and even if Scotter Gennett took what Braun tested positive for, he could not hit anywhere near Ryan Braun levels. Personally, I think it's much more likely that the guys who "are just scraping by" would take PEDs. If you already have a 95 MPH fastball, you don't need to take PEDs to get noticed. However, if you're throwing 85 MPH, there is a lot of incentive to take PEDs to get a few more MPH on your fastball and get noticed by the scouts. Once you're in the majors, if you are good, it's stupid to use, as you will make a lot of money no matter what. If you are just scraping by, you may need to take PEDs or you will lose your job. Not saying anyone should take PEDs, but there is a lot more incentive for borderline players to take them than there is for star players. But, it's a personal decision, and players of all skill levels decide it for themselves, so there's no scientific methodology to determine who is likely to use. I'd guess that if someone wants to use PEDs, they will find a way to get them.

Also reads as "a bunch of guys who never did anything in their baseball careers are jealous of their more talented teammate who went on to win an MVP and make nearly $150,000,000 playing baseball." I believe attorneys call this anecdotal evidence, and while reporters, bloggers and the like love to shovel this stuff on the fire, it doesn't really prove anything. Now, if one of them said "I heard Braun on the phone with A-Rod discussing their drug use," you might have something. That Braun may have bragged about riding in A-Rod's Ferrari, well, what 20-year-old wouldn't brag about riding in A-Rod's Ferrari?

Now, again, I am just making conversation. But if Scooter took steroids through high school in California and through college at Miami it is conceivable that he could have been a .300 hitting 30 HR guy in MLB. Don't discount Scooter, he's got a quick bat. Every player capable of hitting MLB pitching is an elite level hitter. You give them chemical enhancements for a decade or so you can take them to another level. Not sure how familiar you guys are with Steroids, but once you cycle off of them you don't just lose all the muscle mass. You lose some but you are left with more than your particular genetics would normally allow I have some (I think) reasonable doubt that Braun would be built more like Scooter & would hit more like Scooter if he never did PED's..... you think when he was at the U of Miami and training with A-Rod that he was completely clean? Can I sell you a bridge? Unless you're Barry Bonds trying to show that with steroids you can hit more HR than a 'roided up McGuire, it makes no sense for someone to start using after they've already made it to the MLB level. If you're going to start using, it would be before you were drafted in order to get the notice of MLB scouts. Therefore, if the majority of users start using early, and if every "Scooter Gennett" out there could become a Ryan Braun type hitter if they start using PEDs early, and if (as many believe) at least half the guys in MLB were using at one point, then you have to come to the conclusion that at least half the guys in MLB were 1.000 OPS, MVP Award winners. Since at least half the guys in MLB are not 1.000 OPS hitters, then I can't believe that every "Scooter Gennett" out there could become a Ryan Braun-type talent if only they decided to use the type of PED Ryan Braun tested positive for.

Those clamoring that he needs to be kept need to remember that. He's essentially another Yovani Gallardo at best. Now if we can take that and get a Corey Seager who would be more like getting an Evan Longoria. Who would you rather have? Longoria to build around or Gallardo? If Peralta will bring back a Longoria-type prospect, then that makes sense. However, if you can't get an elite prospect back for him, I have no problem offering him a Lucroy-type extension, buying out a year or two of his FA years for a low total cost. He'd have to agree to it, and if he didn't then the writing's on the wall that he will be traded in the next year or two, but if he accepts that style extension we would at least have two decent starters (along with Nelson) for the fans to cheer for during a few down seasons, and he should be able to be traded if necessary, as the obligation on the contract is pretty low.