monty57

Bauers is 29 years old, and has 579 games at the MLB level with 1744 plate appearances. During that time, he's posted an 84 wRC+. The only way to stay in the majors with that bat should be by playing excellent defense at a position like catcher, shortstop or center field. Instead, he is a below average corner OF / roughly average defensive 1B. This is a minor league deal. Let's hope it doesn't go any further than that.

I respect him for this. I figured the union would be pushing hard for him to go for top dollar to try to set the bar for other players' contracts as high as possible. Cool of him for putting his family ahead of getting the highest possible contract.

It will be interesting to see how Adames does going forward. He's been a pretty solid 3-4 WAR player since his age 23 season. Interestingly, in the years that his offense has suffered, he's played better defense to keep his value up. 2025 will be his age 29/30 season (turns 30 in Sept), so you'd think he'll have a few more 3-4 WAR seasons, where he'll "live up to" the contract, and then start to regress and be overpaid for the remainder of the contract. These are the type of contracts the Brewers shouldn't sign, so I have no problem with him leaving. If his offense hadn't slipped in '23, I think he'd have been traded away. Instead, we got to enjoy the best offensive year of his career, and will get a draft pick as compensation. He seems like a great guy, and I wish him well. I'm glad the Brewers didn't sign him to this deal, and think that they should (and will) continue to trade away most of their pending free agents when they have a year or so of "team control" left. In this case where they didn't do that, I'm glad that they got what will likely be Adames' career season in return for not getting anything back in trade.

McCalvy quoted Matt Arnold as saying "We do expect a full and healthy return by Spring Training of 2025." I know that teams sometimes paint a rosy picture around injuries, but it is good to see Arnold saying that.

Agree. I just wrote that because a lot of people see guys like Peralta, Albies, Lucroy, etc., and wonder why a player would ever sign one of those contracts. This is why. Even if they get to a point where they think Ashby isn't going to live up to his deal, I still hope they continue to sign good young prospects to this type of a deal. For Ashby, they're obligated to pay him, so they have the ability to stick him in AAA as long as it takes to get him back. I hope he can figure things out. The article I read said that structurally he's sound, so he should be able to throw like he did. The question is just will he get those MPH back.

This is the other side of deals like Peralta's. When players choose to take early extensions, they're transferring the risk to the team. If they play well, they've cost themselves some money, but they're guaranteeing themselves a lot of money in case of injury or underperformance. I hope Ashby is able to find those couple of MPH's he's lost on his fastball, but even if he never does I still think the Brewers need to take the risk and sign deals like this. The wins should outweigh the losses, and the losses are not ones that will seriously hamper the Brewers' ability to put a competitive team on the field going forward. As it stands now, Ashby's looking very hittable. He either needs to get his velocity back, or learn how to pitch with his new arsenal.

Sounds like the right call getting the surgery and being (hopefully) 100% around nine months from now. Better than trying to see if it will heal on its own, then needing surgery later this year and missing part of 2025 as well. Good call @BrewerFan on the potential to play winter ball. He could still be in line for a 2025 call-up if he can get some reps in this winter and has a good start at AAA next year.

Very early into the season, but the pitching has looked good so far, giving up 10 runs in four games. A big question going into the season (at least for me) was how they are going to address the innings limits. So far, they've pulled Hall and Junis after four innings. I could see that being a normal thing for some of the starters throughout the season, so as long as the bullpen holds up, that could get us through the season without having to shut down some of our starters in August. Hall is the only starter who showed any cracks, and that was in the first inning of his first MLB start so it's understandable. The bullpen has been outstanding. Other than Wilson's 0.1 inning followed by Milner giving up a 3-run HR, they've been almost perfect. Again, it's very early and I don't expect them to end the season with a team 2.25 ERA, but the pitching has looked good to start the season.

A short while back, there was a news article on this site discussing how we may need to trade away some of our bullpen depth because we had too many talented guys for the spots available. We certainly didn't want to lose the best of them to injury, but we should have enough depth to cover this loss. Hopefully the internal guy who gets the job will be a better option than anyone we could find from outside the organization without the need to spend a few million extra dollars.

Sometimes bad things happen. We don't always need to get angry and blame someone. One of the nation's leading experts has looked at Williams and determined that he will be back with the Brewers in three months. No fan emotion will change that, so it's not worth the stress. When something bad happens and there is nothing you can do to change it, you look forward and see what actions you can take to make the best of the situation. The Brewers will need to determine how best to position their 26-man roster to account for Williams' absence, and will need to decide if they are going to name someone as the opening day closer, or if they are going to go "by committee" until someone steps up and takes the role. In my humble opinion, thoughts on how they should do that would be the positive/productive discussion. Neither Williams nor the team want this injury, and neither is to blame for it happening.

I'm interested in seeing how this plays out. Turang has been named the starting 2B, and Adames will be the starting SS. That leaves 3B for Frelick, Ortiz and Monastario. They have been giving a lot of reps to Frelick in the IF this spring, but Ortiz was one of the guys they got in their big offseason trade. My hunch is that Ortiz will be the starter, while Frelick is used in the "Ben Zobrist role" where he will get a lot of starts throughout the season, but will be all over the field (LF, CF, RF, 2B, 3B). This is a nice weapon to have, as everyone can get days off to keep them fresh, and there isn't a significant downgrade when a starter is out of the lineup. It also allows them some pinch hitting flexibility. Let's say Bauers is a decent hitter. They could (for example) pinch hit for Turang in a critical situation and then move Frelick to 2B. Other than "big lefty bat off the bench," I don't really see a reason for Bauers on the roster as the backup 1B to Hoskins, who should play nearly every day. I've always liked Frelick as a Lenny Dykstra-type "go all out" kind of player. He puts the bat on the ball, has good speed and instincts, and plays great defense. This added flexibility makes him more valuable, and I think he'll help the Brewers out a lot over the next half-decade playing a role many players couldn't handle.

Yeah, this sucks but injuries happen. How will the team cope with it, and who will step up? My "silver lining" is that while injuries do happen, a specialist has stated that this is a 3-month injury, and not a "he's got a bum shoulder and hope he can pitch in the MLB sometime in the future" injury. Meanwhile, the team gets a chance to see who has the fortitude to pitch in the 9th. Stats would say it's no different than any other inning, but history seems to have shown that some pitchers can't take the pressure. Williams will probably not be a Brewer in '25, so getting one of the younger guys some reps can help the team determine who could be the closer of the future. And most importantly, Williams will be back to solidify things mid-season, so the Brewers just need to hang in there for a few months, and then they'll get their star closer back for the stretch.

Thankfully, Miley's injury doesn't seem too significant. It looks like they're just going to have to get his pitch count built up, and they only have half of spring training to do so. Do they choose to keep him in extended spring training for a week or two, or do they put him on the MLB roster with a strict pitch count and one of the 'long reliever/spot starter" guys ready to take over when the limit is reached? He's a lefty, and Junis and Ross are righties. If they have the roster spot, pairing a Miley start for 3-4 innings with Junis/Ross coming in to pitch for several innings wouldn't be the worst scenario. It just depends on whether they'd rather use the roster spot for another reliever until Miley is 100%.

Apparently, they went to the same doctor that did Brook Lopez's back surgery, so if the Bucks and Brewers are both turning to him, he's probably a pretty good doctor. If he says three months, I'll trust that opinion. I'll also assume that "he'll be back" means he'll be back on the MLB roster and not "he'll be back and ready for a stint in the minors." It's mid-March, so that would put him back around mid-June. I'm still optimistic that the Brewers will be fighting for the division title this year, so a mid-June return will be a huge addition to help them for the second half of the season. If they aren't in the race, this will give him time to show other teams that he's his old self, and the Brewers will be able to trade him away at the deadline when closers generally get the best return.

My stuff is pretty hittable, but if they want to pay me I'll give it a go :-) Kidding aside, Attanasio has shown the willingness to work with Boras a number of times in the past. I know that Boras is looked at as the devil by many fans, but he's going to try to get the best deal for his clients. He knows that the Brewers aren't one of the big money teams, but that they will work with him in good faith to get a deal done. It seems crazy, but we're already a ways into spring training, and the pitchers know they need to get signed soon. These are the type of players that Attanasio would go over budget for, so let's get it done.

Versatility is a good thing. I think of how Maddon used Zobrist with the Rays and then the Cubs. He was a solid but not spectacular talent, but his versatility made him very valuable. He later started moving Bryant from 3B to corner OF. This versatility allows for more pinch-hitting opportunities and defensive upgrades. Frelick is an outstanding OF defender, so I would expect that he'll play good defense on the infield. This could allow things like starting him in the OF with a poor defensive IF. As the game goes on, Frelick could be moved to the IF, bringing in one of our other good defensive OF, improving defense late in games. It certainly gives him an advantage when determining which of the young guys heads to Milwaukee out of spring training, and which head to the minors. I would guess that he'll get PT all over the field this year, allowing Murphey to play the matchups he likes.

Welcome to the board Olga. 172 is the number of days the player has to remain in the majors in order to gain a full year's service time. The season is 187 days long, so if they are in the minors for over 15 days, they do not get a full year's worth of MLB service time.

This goes back to the "Stats vs Scouts" debates from a couple decades ago. Every team has come to grips with the fact that they need both. Of course a human, whether a scout or a "stat nerd" can go into further depth on each individual case. Having a statistical framework like Steamer helps that human immensely in this. There aren't enough scouts around to do the scouting necessary on every individual who picks up a baseball. However, they can look at data compiled by an outside source and select which individuals they choose to scout. MLB teams are going to go into a lot further depth than I'd ever care to go. I know you don't like Junis' slider-heavy repertoire, but that's undoubtedly something the Brewers looked at and liked. I don't know their reasoning, but I'm sure they did their homework before signing him. Same with their choice to include Hall in the Burnes trade. This is something that some posters immediately hated, because of the limited information they had on him, but that hatred seems to be waning as they see him in action. So yes, teams will do a lot more than look at Fangraphs. For someone like me, it's nice to have some data to go to rather than just saying "this guy sucks" with nothing to base it on other than maybe having seen him pitch once. For teams, there needs to be a database to determine how to allocate their limited resources. Maybe they spend some time looking at Fangraphs, or maybe they have another data source, but it's important information, even if it's not the complete report they'll eventually use in making their personnel moves. BTW, anyone can look at Fangraphs or other sites for more detailed information if they want to "dig deeper" on their own. I believe the projections take this information into account, but as others have said, they're regressing a lot of players at once, so some individual screening could be more informative. It doesn't mean the projections suck, just that they could be subject to further screening for anyone who would like to put in the time.

Aren't the majority of pitchers average, and that's why it's average?

Hence my line "many players will not sign early extensions, but some will." I certainly don't think the Brewers are dumb. I think they're one of the smart teams out there who started doing early extensions before others. I don't disagree that many players are disinclined to sign early extensions. Early extensions are generally done at a big discount relative to what the player could get going year-to-year, as there is a lot of risk transferred from the player to the team. A lot of players will "bet on themselves" even though there is a risk that they could get injured or underperform, rather than signing a long-term deal at a discounted rate to gain certainty. Also, most pre-arby players aren't good enough for the team to offer an extension. Players don't have to be Chourio-level to get an extension, but they have to be good. Someone like Taylor would not get offered an extension, but someone like Frelick or Mitchell could. With a resurgence in our farm, we have a number of players who fit in the latter category, so I'd guess that the Brewers are offering many of our young players extensions. Most probably won't sign, but I hope some do. So, as you can see, I agree with a lot of what you've said. My last two posts have just disagreed with your earlier statement that only foreign born players would sign early extensions, and American born players would not.

With some young guys and some guys coming off injury, and most guys having innings limits, the Brewer rotation is hard to predict/project. A lot of my faith comes from the Brewer brass' recent history with pitchers. I can understand why people (both fans of the team and outsiders) hate this rotation and think it'll cause the team to end up near the bottom of the standings. I think there is talent there, and I think they're going to rely heavily on multi-inning relievers and a strong bullpen, so the eternal optimist in me thinks the rotation will be strong enough to keep us in contention for another division title.

You said that only foreign players sign early extensions. I found a list of the 15 pre-arby extensions done over the past two years, and 10 of them were American born. I think that refutes the thought that American-born players will not sign early extensions. Many players will not sign early extensions, but some will. The Brewers should determine which players they think make sense to extend, and give them the offer. They should not base this on whether they were born in America or a foreign country.

Here are a few recent ones: Aaron Ashby was born in Kansas City. Bobby Witt, Jr was born in Colleyville, TX Corbin Carroll was born in Seattle, WA Myles Straw was born in Garden Grove, CA Ke'Bryan Hayes was born in Tomball, TX Garrett Whitlock was born in Snellville, GA Trevor Stephan was born in Magnolia, TX Michael Harris II was born in DeKalb, GA Hunter Greene was born in Los Angeles, CA Spencer Strider was born in Columbus, OH

One of the big question marks was at least partially answered with Ashby reporting to camp healthy and ready to go. As far as the "youngsters," Hall is the only rookie, and he may not even be eligible as a rookie as he's seen MLB action in Baltimore's 'pen. My biggest question is how they're going to manage everyone's innings. Other than that, I think that barring injury rotation is coming into focus. It should be Peralta, Miley, Hall, Ashby and Rea (not necessarily in that order). Peralta and Miley are both vets, and the biggest worry there are that they've both had some injuries in the past. Hopefully that won't happen this year. Rea isn't the most talented guy in the world, but is probably our #5 "innings eater" guy. He'll help alleviate some of the innings concerns, but if everyone is healthy, he'll be the guy who gets bumped when they're ready to bring Gasser up. Ashby and Hall both have great stuff. Neither will probably be able to pitch a full season's worth of starts, but both are guys who have the stuff to be at the top of a rotation some day. Ross and Junis (and maybe Junk) are probably going to start the season as multi-inning relievers, who can step into the rotation as needed. They will be important in keeping everyone's innings down, allowing the team to skip starts at times, or come in after the starter only throw a few innings. Gasser and Mis can start at AAA. Gasser is ready now, and will be up this year, but he's not on the 40 man and I'd guess he'll be in the minors on opening day. He will play a role on the '24 MLB team, and depending on how things go, Mis might also be up this year. So yes, there are some questions... every team has questions. But, I don't think it's a bad rotation. The biggest question is how they'll keep everyone under their innings limit. That's a better question to have than questioning whether any of the guys can pitch at the MLB level.

This is an important point. Look at Albies. He has 6.062 years of service time, so he would have been a free agent this offseason. Instead, the Braves have him at $7M / year for '24 and '25 with team options for '26 and '27. If they chose to trade him right now, they would get a king's ransom. In a rosy scenario, if the Brewers were to extend multiple of their OFs and they all play to their potential, they'd have an OF full of inexpensive All Stars, and having them under contract would make them very tradable commodities at any point during the extension. In a bad scenario, their 4th and 5th OFs would be making around $6-8M/year for a few years. All of Mitchell, Frelick and Wiemer play defense at such a high level that they are positive WAR players even if they don't hit well, so the worst-case isn't as bad as it could be. I don't want to pay a defensive replacement $7M, but that's a worst-case scenario and probably worth the risk.