monty57

The Cubs will need to trade a few of their current crop of impact prospects - there's too many that play similar positions. Look for them to stay active in the trade market through next offseason, probably making at least one blockbuster-type deal to bring in impact pitching or corner OF talent in exchange for at least one of their young middle IF players. Depending on how the prospects fare, it could make sense for them to trade Castro, which would free up a lot more money and bring back a ton of additional prospects.

Here's the full list from the Brewers' site: http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/103814668/2014-major-leaue-baseball-rule-5-draft-results I always thought Halton could be a decent bench bat, with the ability to step in at 1B or corner OF. He got a bit of a shot in 2013, but obviously wasn't in the Brewers' plans going forward. The other of the K. Davises showed promise early on, but was well down the Brewers' OF depth chart, so it's best for him to see if he can make an MLB roster in a different uniform. I wish them both well.

I don't think people are saying that this move means the Cubs will immediately be unbeatable and for that reason the Brewers have no chance. Personally, I think the Cubs were in a position similar to the Brewers around the time Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, etc were coming up from the minors. The big difference is that the Cubs have a lot of money to add pitching, which is the big thing that hurt the Brewers. With that, I think the Cubs are in a position to be a contending team for a long time. "On paper," they should be much better this year, and probably one of the favorites to win the division going into the 2016 season. When you also consider the solid systems (MLB and minors) of the Cardinals and Pirates, the Central should be a tough division for quite a few years. It's early and a lot can happen, but at this point the Brewers and Reds appear to be the teams with the biggest hills to climb after 2015. The Reds have some big contracts that should weigh them down, while the Brewers will be losing a lot of talent without in-house replacements coinciding with Braun getting "expensive" and a bunch of guys hitting arbitration, somewhat limiting the money they'll have available to spend to replace the talent they're losing. But that's looking longer-term. As to 2015, I'll restate that I think while the Cardinals and Pirates should be the favorites, any team (including the Brewers) could win. There is a lot of talent throughout the division, and it should be fairly competitive.

The Brewers still have a shot in 2015. Probably about as good a shot as they had going into 2014. I don't think the Brewers will make the playoffs, and the Cubs adding talent makes it even more difficult, but "on paper" I'd say any of the teams could potentially win the division, although the Cardinals and Pirates should be the favorites. It's after 2015 that things could go downhill, as the Brewers lose a lot of talent while some contracts get expensive and a bunch of guys hit arbitration. This also coincides with the year the Cubs really should start to cause a stir, and the Cards and Pirates should still be good. Could be a rough stretch for the Brewers and Reds. Coincidentally, that's likely going to be Melvin's first year of retirement, leaving the next guy a bit of a mess to sort out.

It's just depressing to see how every team in the division is surpassing us. I will be very surprised if the Brewers don't have one of the two worst records in the division over the next five seasons, and I don't believe it had to be that way. I'm frustrated because I like the Brewers and invest a lot of time in them. The thought of Scherzer signing with the Brewers is pretty laughable (along the lines of believing that Fielder, Grienke or CC were going to come back), but unfortunately so is the thought of trading an MLB starter with one year of control for a guy who will spend one year in AAA before taking over as the starter for six years. I'd gladly trade one year of a decent pitcher (when we have a good young replacement in house) for six cheap years of a starting 3B, but that's just not the way the Brewers operate. I really hope to see this change, but I don't believe it will. I get that you don't like seeing this in type. I don't like writing it. I try to be positive about positive things that do happen. I like the Wren trade, I liked that they traded Aoki when Davis was ready. I like that they seem to have changed their draft strategy over the past couple of years. I like extending good pre-arby players. But, I don't think the recent positives are going to be enough to put us in the top half of the division going forward. They probably have one small shot in 2015, and then I'm worried that they'll be stuck at the bottom of the division for an extended period, eventually leading to a lot of empty seats, which is the one thing will force ownership to rethink things. I mention Attanasio because he seems to be setting the direction the team will take. He's the owner, so that's his right. I think Melvin does a lot of things well, and is doing a decent job given the direction he's given, but he seems to get blamed for any failures while Attanasio is widely loved. I may go overboard in mentioning Attanasio's name, but it's because I believe he's the one ultimately responsible and to me it looks like he's trying to drive the car as far and fast as he can before the wheels fall off, and I'd rather spend a little time in the shop fixing the car so the wheels never fall off.

Why does every comment include "Attanasio"? Doug Melvin is the general manager. Attanasio invited Suppan to dinner to get him to sign, Boras called Attanasio to get him to sign Lohse (going against Melvin's earlier comments on the topic), and Boras saw Attanasio at a function of some sort last offseason and convinced him to sign Garza. Melvin's the GM, but most of the major decisions in the recent past seem to have been made by Attanasio. ...the fallacy that the Brewers are looking to win a World Championship in 2015 with a $180M payroll No one thinks that. They're currently sitting at what looks to be around $107MM, and most seem to think they're about capped, maybe adding a couple million, and maybe trading a big contract (Gallardo or Lohse) to add elsewhere. and then sell the team and get out of the baseball business forever. No one thinks that either. Melvin may retire when his contract is up (he was set to retire after his last contract, but at the last minute decided to sign a new deal), but I haven't heard anyone thinking Attanasio would sell the team. Apparently he was in consideration for the new commissioner gig, and some mentioned his name when the Dodgers were for sale, but obviously neither of those happened, so he'll likely be the Brewer owner for the foreseeable future. 2018 isn't as bleak as people are making it out to be Maybe not, but that's a ways off. I'm concerned as soon as 2016, as we will lose Gallardo, Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and potentially Broxton. Then we lose Gomez the following offseason. We don't have much in the upper levels of the minors to replace these players, and our best prospect (Nelson) will probably spend the year as a middle reliever. All of this is happening while most of the rest of the division appears to be getting stronger over the next few seasons. Since Ramirez exercised his option, we're obviously going to try for a playoff run in 2015, but after that it may make sense to look into some sort of a rebuild so that 2018 (the year you referenced) will look a little better. Does every discussion need that context and connotation? This thread is about potentially signing someone to a nearly $200MM deal, and what you quoted was in reference to potentially trading for a guy who would be in AAA in 2015, starting in 2016, so I think it's very relevant here.

With Taylor figuring to be in AA, wonder where he'll start out? From the Baseball America article Mass Haas linked to: "He profiles as a solid fourth outfielder who could make his major league debut in 2015." It's early, but I would guess he'll start in AAA with Parra and Schafer on the MLB roster. He will debut if/when the Brewers have an injury in the OF, and could step into the 4th OF role full-time when Parra leaves after the 2015 season.

Reilly, can you please e-mail Attanasio with your thoughts? If he can be convinced that trading Gallardo or Lohse could actually help the 2015 team (don't mention the future, that will make him think you're trying to trick him), then he may let Melvin trade for "some prospect" in order to free up the cash :-)

On Braves' website and MLBtraderumors, there are comments about how strapped the Braves are for payroll room this offseason (they're paying Uggla $13MM not to play, and BJ Upton $15.05MM to play poorly), so I doubt they'd do anything that would add salary. If there's legs to this rumor, it's probably the Brewers trading prospects for a reliever. Of course, the Brewers aren't flush with payroll room either, so it is possible we could be trading MLB pieces with similar contracts. Heyward makes some sense in this, as he's making $8.3MM in the final year of his contract, but that's quite a bit less than Gallardo or Lohse. Adding Davis to the deal could make it palatable for the Braves, but it would sure mean the Brewers are going to blow up after the 2015 season. But, that seems to fit the Attanasio m.o. more than trading for the AA/AAA third baseman mentioned earlier in the thread.

but he still was Baseball America's #74 prospect prior to 2014. That's probably around the value I'd assume for one of Gallardo or Lohse, probably having the Red Sox also throw in one or two lesser prospects. The problem is that I don't see Attanasio trading one of his starters for a guy who would spend 2015 in AAA waiting for Ramirez to leave in a year. If he allows a trade of an MLB guy, he wants instant gratification (aka someone who will immediately be on the 25 man roster). If Ramirez had declined his option, I could see this trade as a possibility, but with Ramirez for another year, I don't see it happening.

It's not necessarily that a big payroll allows you to sign free agents that puts you over the top. It's that it allows you to resign your star players and trade for players to shore up holes and take on their salary. Having extra money obviously helps, but no different than "real life," with any amount of revenue, you still need to be smart about it. Plenty of big money teams have spent unwisely and ended up with big obligations on bad contracts that keep them from competing. Unfortunately for small money teams, with the advent of "Moneyball," more big money teams seem to understand the value of being smart with their money, and aren't willing to give up "unproven" for "proven" as easily. Also, you can't look at things in a vaccuum (i.e. if we had more money right now, we could do "x"), because having more money would probably have meant obligating it on previous moves. Melvin has a lot more money to spend now than he did a decade ago, but much of it is already spoken for. That's why I don't like the concept of spending the maximum payroll every year just because it's there. Had we foregone some spending in the past, maybe we would have had that little extra to pay more for Abreu. Again just like in "real life," if you spend less than your budget, you have money left over when something big comes up. If you always spend everything you have, you don't have anything left over when opportunity arises.

Maybe the Brewers should target Red Sox young 3Bmen as suggested many times in other threads. I think that's a great idea, but I don't see it happening. Even though it would tremendously help us for the next six seasons (we don't have a 3B to take over when Ramirez leaves), the logical way to get the Boston 3B is to trade either Lohse or Gallardo, which would probably weaken our 2015 team (relative value of Gallardo/Lohse vs Nelson). I can't see Attanasio doing anything to potentially weaken this year's team even if it will significantly help future teams. It's just not his m.o. In other division news, the Cubs are looking at Jordan Zimmerman? As I (and others) have mentioned a number of times, the Cubs are ready to start using their vast monetary resources to add to their MLB roster. They should be vastly improved in 2015 over 2014, and by 2016 could be perennial contenders for the NL Central crown. When you also consider that the Cardinals and Pirates also look to be very good teams, the Brewers' future doesn't look so hot. I know, this is more reason to do something like finding a good, young 3B to take over when Ramirez leaves, but again, that's not Attanasio's m.o. The Cardinals won a World Series with Jeff Suppan as their ace. I don't know that he was their ace, but he was hot during the playoff run, and was a big reason they won (and a big reason Attanasio had him over for dinner and signed him to a multi-year deal). I personally think too much is made over one player (the "ace"). I would rather have a team where every player is good than a team where a couple players are great, a couple are good and the rest are below average. Come playoff time, the "ace" has the opportunity to make a big difference (although Verlander/Scherzer and Kershaw didn't propel their teams through the playoffs like Bumgarner did), but without a solid team around them, they wouldn't be in the playoffs to begin with. To the topic of the thread, the Brewers are already "top heavy" with contracts. Several of them will be off the books, but I don't want them to sign a $20-25MM player who, along with Braun would eat up far too big a portion of their payroll for many years. If they were in a different stage (a lot of star talent in the high minors ready to hit the big leagues for league minimum) it may make sense, but not in their current state.

Baseball has more players on the field than most other sports, so one player is less important to the team's overall success than other sports. It may sound simple, but the team with the most overall talent on their 25-man roster should have the best chance to win. Therefore, teams need to be wary of getting too high a percentage of their payroll tied up in a few players, and if they do, they had better be darn sure they don't miss on any of the signings, and they had better have a crack team in charge of drafting/player development because if a few players take up most of the payroll, the majority of players on the team are going to be playing for league minimum. As Fondy said, just for this year, signing Scherzer would probably mean we would have to get rid of around $15-20MM in salary (if we backload the deal). So, if we trade Gallardo, we will probably get something in return. Knowing the Brewers, they would demand an MLB guy rather than a prospect, so we would probably get a late-inning reliever/setup guy back. What would this mean in relative terms? In simple terms (WAR), Scherzer is probably 3-4 wins better than Gallardo has been the past couple of years. At best, you might expect a half game improvement from a good reliever we'd get in trade (vs what we'd otherwise put out there). So, let's just say we get four wins... that seems really good. Now, what happens if Braun, Davis or Gomez gets hurt? We go from Parra to someone like Schafer, which could cost you 1-3 of those games. We also won't have any funds to sign an upgrade like Bonafacio, so we'll have Herrera as our utility IF, potentially costing us. So, we'd likely be better in 2015, but it guts our depth even more than it already is, and therefore gets us even more at risk of one injury really hurting us. Then, we move into future years. In 2016, we'd lose the salaries of Lohse, and Ramirez, but Braun, Scherzer, Garza, Gomez and Lucroy would eat up around $70MM in payroll. The buyouts on Lind and Broxton (if not exercised) would be $2.5MM. If they're exercised, we're at around $85MM for seven players, with Segura, Peralta, Henderson, Jeffress, Kinzler, Schafer, Maldonado, and Fiers all in their arby years, and little "star power" in the upper minors ready to step in to help out for league minimum. It's potentially doable, if we can maintain a $110MM+ payroll, but I don't see how it's worthwhile, especially since, as others have said, he'd be in his mid-to-late 30's by the time the contract ended, making it very likely that we'd be significantly overpaying him in the final years of the contract. Very few monster contracts work out, even for big market teams that can more easily absorb them. Braun's deal will probably end badly, and I don't want the Brewers to get stuck in another monster deal.

Which means he will be the 25th man on the roster this year. The backup 3B/1B is going to be more than the typical "25th man" this season. Ramirez needs time off, and probably shouldn't be counted on for more than 120 games or so. Lind cannot hit LHP, opening up around 40 starts at 1B. That would mean the backup 1B/3B will likely start around 80 games unless the Brewers once again decide that Lucroy cannot get a day's rest and start him at 1B against LHP, which probably means Lucroy should not be considered for extension, because his body will wear out by the time his contract is up.

I think maybe because he's already hit 30, so if he was lets say 27-28 I'd be all on board with it but giving a guy 6-8 year contract after the age of 30 just screams wrong to me. Well, he and Braun would have a lot of fun as two mid-30's guys eating up half the team's payroll every year. Maybe they could backload it into deferred pay after he's retired so we could also pay Scherzer and Braun 10% of the Brewer payroll when they've long since retired.

I will never bet against teams doing what some might consider dumb moves in order to bring in a "name" player.

The part for me that adds the intrigue is how many times have the Cubs used these 1/2year SPs and gotten back decent prospects for them in the last 3 years? None, but not every team is run like the Brewers. I think the Cubs are a bad target largely because I don't accept the notion that if they are serious about making a push next season for the playoffs they need to trade away some of their future for a one-year player. While I'm sure the Cubs and their fans are starting to see the end of the rebuild tunnel, there really isn't a push to "win now." There's no reason for them to veer from this long-term rebuild strategy and sell off part of their future in an attempt to increase their small chance of making the playoffs in 2015, and if they did determine that Alcantara is an "odd man out," he is still a good young player with years of cheap control left, so they would be much better off trading him for someone with more than one year of team control. I think the whole thing is moot anyway. Since Ramirez is returning and they made the Lind trade, I can't imagine Attanasio would allow Melvin to make any trade that on the surface could look to decrease the Brewers' chance of winning in 2015. Maybe I'm overvaluing the Cub management, but I don't see them making moves of selling off the future for today, and I don't see the Brewer management making moves of selling off today for the future. It's why I think we will, in the relatively near future, get sick of all the talk of how the Cubs are looking at "breaking the curse," while the only national press the Brewers will get is in a few years when the folks in New York realize the Brewers are celebrating their 50th year of existence without one championship title.

Winning sells tickets. End of discussion. I agree, but much of the budget is based on how tickets are selling in the offseason (things like people deciding whether or not to re-up their season tickets). I think this had a lot to do with Attanasio deciding to sign Lohse and Garza over the past two offseasons, and his refusal to trade away any name the fans know. As much as I wish the team would adopt a longer-term strategy for building a team, I understand Attanasio's fear of losing season ticket holders. Unfortunately, many Brewer fans have now been conditioned to hold off on buying tickets until the team "proves they want to win" by signing another mid-30's "name" player in the offseason. At this point, it will take a lot of convincing to get the fan base to buy into any type of rebuild, and the Brewers don't have the high profile or the resources to bring in a big name like Epstein who the fans would inherently trust to do it right.

Re: Paul and 'stache: This is why I've cut back on the criticism of Melvin over the past few seasons. Melvin seems to have realized a couple years ago the situation the team is in. The draft strategy changed, and he came out early in the offseasons saying they weren't going to make any big moves. He really seemed to be looking at "taking a step back to take two steps forward." Then ticket sales start coming in, Attanasio panics, Boras calls him and gets him to sign the "name" vet to a big, multi-year deal, and Melvin is stuck with a demand to "win now," with no resources to fix big holes in the roster. This offseason is different, because everyone in the organization realizes that 2015 is potentially the last season before they'll lose too much talent to patch next offseason. Throw in that I think Melvin's ready to retire after the season, and I really think they're going to do anything they can to make a playoff run this season. But, Melvin retiring won't change anything unless Attanasio is ready to change. Fans love that he "wants to win," but he's kind of like a race car driver that won't take his foot off the gas. Occasionally, you have to tap the brakes in order to be around to race another day.

Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday? I don't mind people disagreeing with me, but I hate when people make up a narrative (which will almost surely stick) like saying Lind is a defensive liability. Over any meaningful sample size, all advanced metrics say he's been right around average (UZR he's a touch below average, TotalZone he's a touch above average). Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality. Who made up a narrative? Over his career: *he has a career -9.2 dWAR per baseball-reference *UZR @ 1B -8.0 per FanGraphs *UZR/150 @ 1B -4.0 per FanGraphs *UZR @ OF -13.8 per FanGraphs *UZR/150 @ OF -11.6 per FanGraphs He looks like he played well in his 11 games at first base in 2010 (22.8 UZR/150), and okay in 2011 (-2.7) and 2012 (2.0). Bad in 2013 (-7.4) and horrible in 2014 (-14.8). The Blue Jays took him out of the OF after 2010 after successive seasons of -17.8, -30.8 and -46.3 UZR/150. Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday? He has 2,530 innings at first base. Somehow, don't ask me how, Lind has managed to get worse at positions the longer he plays there (it's happened in the OF and at 1B). He's definitely not an outfielder, and is a poor fielding first baseman. He's best suited for DH, which is where the Blue Jays usually played him, but since we don't have that option, we'll settle for a poor fielding 1B who should be able to hit well agains RHP. I'm not trying to knock him, but we have to look at him for what he is. He should do well against RHP, and bad against LHP, and he will likely be a below average fielding 1B. Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality. Juan Francisco at 1B: -27.1 UZR/150 in 2013 with Brewers, never having played 1B before and getting bounced between 1B (532.1 innings) and 3B (255.2 innings) -1.1 UZR/150 in 2014 with Blue Jays If you only use Francisco's time at 1B with the Brewers when he was thrown there with no experience, then Lind compares favorably. If you look at Francisco after he's had a little experience there, he out-fielded Lind. Neither is good, but there is certainly "basis in reality" to see how Francisco could be a better fielding 1B going forward, and to say that a guy who is a pretty bad fielding 1B would be best served as a DH.

whose to say he can't improve at 1B He's 31 and has played 304 games at first. How many people improve their defense at that stage of their career? After last offseason, where the team justified keeping Overbay over Francisco because they said the big problem was the poor 1B defense, this season they're going back to a poor defensive 1B picked up for his bat. Lind has made 371 of his 504 career starts as a designated hitter, which is probably where he is best suited, so he should fit right in with Melvin's Brewers. Hopefully they sit him every time a LHP is on the mound, and hopefully his bad back holds up for the whole season. If both of those happen, he should provide enough offense to make up for the poor defense. He's not a world-beater, and honestly he may not even be worth the salary he's being paid (Toronto was going to cut him to save salary), but we got him for a pitcher that was probably going to be non-tendered, and he should be an upgrade over Overbay. Just be wary - over 3726 PAs / 953 games over nine season, Totonto ended up with a total of 11.4 oWAR and -9.2 dWAR, so I'm reminded of the line from the Gin Blossom's Hey Jealousy... "If you don't expect too much from me, you might not be let down."

What are you willing to give up for Alcantara? Being its within the division, he will likely cost us a little bit more than another team. I don't feel comfortable giving up a solid prospect, especially since our farm system is already running low on top tier talent, for a super utility player who projects best at 2B (which we already have covered). Ramon Santiago would provide similar value and likely cost the Brewers $3M or 2 years. Yeah, I don't see why the Cubs, who are building around young talent would give up one of their young, talented players when they can just go out and buy better pitchers than Gallardo in the free agent market. Lohse and Gallardo really make little sense to the Cubs, who shouldn't be looking at a guy on a one-year deal. If they really like either of the pitchers, they can simply wait until he's a free agent after next season and pick him up then.

Faulty comparison. Lind doesn't play against LH pitching. In the AL, not much use for PH either, so when guys don't start, they simply don't play for the most part. From the article on the Brewers' own website that announced the Lind trade: "For the second time in three years, the slugger was bothered by a back injury and was limited to fewer than 100 games."

Adam Lind games played 2014: 96 2013: 143 2012: 93 2011: 125 And this is on a team with a designated hitter.

Do you pay 8million for a 1b who stands to not be worth 1WAR? The Brewers are going to do just that this year, and will probably do it again in 2016. You see the excitement people get since we've "finally found an answer" at 1B. I just don't feel his option is a sure thing to be picked up because he's declining with age defensively. It's not a sure thing, but I think it's likely to happen unless he hits .200 like Reynolds, especially considering we're losing Gallardo, Lohse, Parra and Ramirez and the Brewer brass won't want to open up another hole on the roster.