Wahoo Maniac

I just don’t think fire sale is the right term for what the Brewers would be trying to accomplish by selling. The idea of a “Baseball Fire Sale” is to trade players away for the mere sake of salary relief more so than any sort of valuable return. It’s a financial reset of sorts where you start over with younger, cheaper players. I don’t think the Brewers primary motivation would be to shed expensive contracts, I think they would be looking to receive some value from players that aren’t likely to be part of their plan in 2020. Like we’ve both stated, the Brewers are several losses away yet from the idea of selling becoming a reality. Interesting. I never felt it was solely tied to finances just thought that was merely one aspect of it. Thanks

Trading players on expiring contracts like Grandal (and Moustakas) isn’t a fire sale. They have just 16 games remaining in July. I agree that they would need to lose a lot more games (probably at least 10+), but I don’t think 10 games out would be the parameter for selling. If they end up greater than 6.0 games out of both the division and wild card with several teams between them and the playoff position, then I would be disappointed if they didn’t engage in the concept of selling. I’ve brought it up before in the sell thread (link), but the 2016 Yankees are a good example of an average team that used a few trades at the deadline to improve their future outlook. If you're trading Grandal and Moose then you're trading Thames, Chacin, Albers and everyone else with an expiring contract/option and letting young guys/Shaw take over and calling it a season. You don't need to make every single player available in order for it to be a fire sale. I used 10 games just as an example, not the bar that I'm setting, meaning if we're out by a sizeable number of games then it would make sense to sell off all those guys but right now we're not. Also, the Yankees were 7 games back from the division and WC after July 31 and in 4th place in their division with 3 other teams within .5 game of each other. We'd have to lose a week's worth of games straight in order to fall into the Yankees position.

You value Arcia, Peralta, Ray highly. Many others look at how they are performing and don't see anywhere near what you do. Arcia is not playing that well. CC said his defense is lacking and he is hitting .238/.300.. The Jays have Galvis at SS and he is out performing Arcia. Peralta has been rocked consistently the last two years. He has been decent at times, but his lack of secondary pitches is a glaring weakness. Ray had one year where he hit a lot of HRs, but he hasn't hit above .240 from A+ through AAA ball. Right now none of the three would headline a package for Stroman. The difference between me and you (along with many others) is that I make sure to objectively analyze each player while factoring in as many variables as possible, including those that can't be measured statistically, as opposed to looking at a final stat line believing that tells the entire story. I've CLEARLY stated it's based on how the Jays (insert any other team here) value Arcia. I've never once said Arcia has excellent value. I've said he holds plenty of value still due to his pedigree, age, control (3.5yrs), defense (which will come back to plus) and offensive flashes (if the Jays believe he develops more consistency they'll value him highly). Yes, the Jays have Galvis who has an option for next year where he's set to make 5.5M whereas Arcia is heading into arbitration and what do you think he'll make after his 2018/2019? A: nowhere near 5.5M then he'll have an additional 2yrs control after that. Will Galvis continue to perform at that level or at his previous level, in which case Arcia holds more value due to the aforementioned. Peralta, like Arcia, is talented but lacks consistency. He's flashed domination at this level at ages 21/22. He has a plus curve and pretty decent change so if the control of those pitches become more consistent (and actually called since we never call them) he's a very good rotation arm then. Again, young with potential who's flashed at this level. A young, talented MLB player who's flashed dominance has more value than most prospects. Also, Shane Bieber got hit last year too giving up 10.2 H9. A year later he's an AS. He obviously has more control than Peralta so can consistently use his secondary pitches. But Peralta is a year younger and has cut his BB9 almost in half while keeping his K9 the same. There's been improvements incertain areas and setbacks in others. When it comes to Ray you're intentionally ignoring context and other variables. He's made mechanical adjustments since his first season and if I recall correctly, essentially played all of A+ with a knee injury affecting him. Then came back 100% healthy for the first time since being drafted and put up a big AA. No, he didn't just hit a bunch of HR. He hit 32 doubles, 7 triples, stole 37 bases, had a OBP 85pts higher than his BA with a 137 wrc+ playing good defense in CF (premium position). And while 1yr young for level isn't that young you also need to factor in that the greatest jump in the minors is jumping into AA. Ray then looked great in spring training until he broke his finger or tore a ligament in it (whatever it was) then he played April with that injury before he was shut down. He didn't perform like garbage "then" get injured - he was injured before the regular season began hence my statement nobody is going to buy into his performance this April because he was injured (fingers are kind of important for hitters). He was put back in the Top 100 heading into this season, meaning scouts/teams (not all obviously) see a lot of potential in him. Other teams might value him as the 3rd best prospect in our system while others might value him as the top (excluding Hiura here). He absolutely has value regardless. I don't expect us to trade for Stroman anyway. I just think him and Giles should at least be targets and I think we're in a spot right now where trading some young MLB talent is the way to go instead of just prospects.

This is correct. But it only applies if said team isn't competitive. They're 1.5 games back in the division right now and .5 games back in WC. You're not making decisions to sell them off right now.

I wouldn't trade Grandal as we're 1.5 games out of the division with a lot of games left. If we fall 10 games back by the end of July then you can do a fire sale but I don't see that happening.

At the start of the year when this team was on a roll, it was a non issue. Did Grandal suddenly start calling for different pitches in different situations? I highly doubt it. I don't know who you're referring to but I've been saying Grandal sucks at calling pitches since game one with us. It's obvious too. Last night was a great example of it with the entire pen. One example, him forcing Burnes to pound inside sliders all day except they were just sitting and spinning. So instead of moving off that to low and away to force him to release it out front more and get that feel back he continues to pound inside while Longoria continued to foul off bullets. A guy locked in fouling off inside pitches all day should probably see a low and away slider but that would make too much sense. The slider is Albers best pitch and he should be throwing it often. Instead he has him throwing fastballs and changeups until after the granny. Then he had him pound the slider. It's brutal to watch

No. But I've heard Harley's is good. His suit was black with thick white pinstripes - the kind that makes you wonder if Dick Tracy is after him. Terrible choice

Great read there. He threw 11 innings in A+ and they wanted to get him stiffer competition. He's thrown 37ip in AA now and with around 8wks left in the season I'd have to think it makes sense to give him a taste of AAA heading into next season. If the Brewers weren't competitive I think we'd see his MLB debut this year. I can see them giving him 50 innings in AA then moving him to AAA, which should allow for him to get around 25 innings there. All goes well he just might push for a pen spot in spring training.

I very much doubt that gets it done. A likely reliever, a guy with a starter's arsenal that bombed so bad that he had to move back to the bullpen and then back and forth between the bullpen and the minors and then a SS that's going to be entering arbitration that's maybe like a 2 WAR guy. Adding another smaller piece on to that doesn't do much. Except you're intentionally ignoring their potential based upon their skill set/ability. Two of those players have 5.5yrs control and one was a Top 50 area prospect and both have had MLB success already. So, I guess if you push all that to the side, then yeah it's terrible.

Arcia was on pace for 29 errors in A ball if played 150 games. 30 at SS in A+. 16 in AA. 24 in AAA the year he was called up the final 2 months. He had 20 in 152 games in 2017 and has played at that pace since. Turang will be a steady defender.

No, we're not reading too much into that site. He literally just chimed in saying what the numbers broke down too after it was already discussed a bit, not vice versa. Yes, I know they've said they want to deal them separately but if one team is able to offer what they're looking for in totality then why would they do two different deals? Ray had a ton of value heading into this season and broke his finger in spring training then didn't tell anyone because he wanted to play. Nobody is putting any stock into his AAA numbers. His injury isn't career altering and now he's back. The only thing that sucks is him missing the first half of the season. He has plenty of value and very well might be less than 1yr away from MLB. Of course they're going to be expensive. But Arcia, Peralta, Ray isn't remotely close to a cheap package value wise. It just matters how the Jays value a package like this over competing ones. Will other competing teams also view Stroman as the brand he is or the actual performer he is? Because his performance doesn't match his brand (ie he's performed like a really good mid-rotation while having the brand of a frontline starter)

All of them need to play to their current abilities or relatively close to it

Agree here. They're just a different animal. If anybody's ever been it's more like a minor league environment than an Indy league. I've never been to a Milkmen game and never will. Indy ball is trash. You're better off watching a Land O Lakes game for free

Brown, Ray, Erceg, M. Sanchez, Webb to me are the only that deserve consideration. I think Ray and Brown are the only guys that get protected. I see Erceg as part of a package; same goes for Ponce. Maybe they include Bickford as a flyer for someone too.

I see him as more of your favorite beer after it's gone skunky. It's been around awhile and won't be nearly as good anymore, but the liquor store is closed and you don't really have other options, so it'll get the job done. lol my first thought was to ask what shape the cork is in since that's what seals a wine's fate but I'm a wine guy so...

No. And the Mets are hurting in a lot of areas so I don't think they necessarily will require one elite prospect, one very good+ propsect + fillers if they can acquire a package of several young controllable MLB players/upper level good prospects. I can see them going either way as the return is going to be good regardless.

Turang and Arcia look like two totally different players. I've only seen Turang a handful of times, but he does not look like an kid who was playing in HS last year. I didn't realize there was a thread about him, but I just stated on another thread, he reminds me of a potential Trea Turner type talent. I'll admit, I had to go back and look and was surprised by Arcia's BB/SO ratio, but I don't think that should diminish how great Turang has looked. And if he's playing some 2nd right now, that only adds to his versatility. Throw him in center as well. But I do think he'll stick at short and that his upside is as enormous. Arcia was a really good contact bat with a very good understanding of the zone coming up and plus defender (defense was obviously his calling card). But his bat to ball skills and approach don't match Turang/Dubon nor did his hit tool. Turang is more Dubon than Arcia. Dubon/Turang both have great bat to ball skills, excellent understanding of the zone, SLG will come from lots of doubles/triples vs HR (whereas Arcia doesn't hit many doubles/triples but has more HR pop), solid arms and steady defenders at SS. Dubon will hit more HR than Turang most likely but Turang will have better on-base skills. Both have way more speed than Arcia too. Arcia is obviously better than both defensively when he's actually playing to his ability. By the time Turang reaches MLB he'll be similar to Dubon in that he'll be able to start at either spot up the middle. Trea Turner is on another level than Turang. He could play both SS and CF at the MLB level, has way more HR power, will steal way more bases due to his elite speed but Turang has a better understanding of the zone, approach and bat to ball skills. Turner has a higher ceiling. The first time I watched video on Turang, which also happened to be on draft day since I've never heard of him nor pay attention to any build up to draft day, and it happened to be a video of him just taking grounders and turning DPs on any empty infield. I recall the first thought in my head after watching him field a few balls was this kid looks like a Jr in college who's about to be a 1st rd pick. Crazy polished for a HS kid. Then I watched as many hitting videos as possible and saw the same thing from him. You don't even have to look for it - it jumps right out at you and hits you in the face it's that obvious. He was steal at the time and is still a steal.

I wouldn't give up both as that's a ton of control lost for 2.5yrs of Thor who has injury concerns to begin with. I have no issues parting with Peralta. I just think Burnes is a more polished pitcher and worst case is a big arm in the pen (although I think he sticks in the rotation and figures it out next year). I'd part with Burnes in a package if there was a pitcher coming back with 3.5yrs control. No way I part with both in the same package

Had dinner at Smith & Wollensky one night when the Brewers/Cubs played an afternoon game at Wrigley a couple years back. When my wife and I were leaving, Schroeder and his wife came up the stairs and exited in front of us. They happened to be walking the same direction as us, in front of us, for a half mile. His suit was awful. That's all I have to say.

We know all these answers! OK I am getting a little too much mileage out of the trade value site but it's fun. Stroman and Giles = 37.5 total value Arcia, Peralta, Ray = 49.8 So no need for Ray or a lottery pick... Not that it's very accurate or realistic but, again, it points to your MLB players as being your best trade chips as good or promising young MLB players always hold more value than a prospect so we shouldn't just be looking at prospects to trade. Out of curiosity what's the total value of Peralta, Ray, Dubon? Arcia has 3.5yrs control on his rookie contract, has proven to be a plus defender and has flashed a solid bat over his 400 games. If the Jays believe in the development of his bat/approach they'll see a lot of value in him. He turns 28 with 2 months left on his contract and can anchor the young talented IF there. He has plenty of value. Peralta has 5.5yrs and is a big K guy. He's been inconsistent but when he's on he's really good. He'll have a lot of value as well. They're basically swapping 1.5yrs of a proven successful vet for 5.5yrs of young potential who's flashed success and 1.5yrs of a great pen arm for 3.5yrs of a starting SS. I think it's a win/win. Then again maybe the Jays want prospects and not MLB guys, which is why something like Peralta, Dubon, Ray might be more enticing given the control and how close they are to being MLB ready.

I'll guess everybody that knew he was very good before he came here then watched him pitch great until his injury, an injury he clearly wasn't fully recovered from in August when he came back and got rocked. It's no different than Davies except Davies had injury issues in April that affected him all season. Once those dudes were fully healthy they were going to perform again, plus they're both cheap, so not sure why this is surprising to anyone. Shaw is too good and cheap to give up on. I see him starting at 3b next year or replacing Thames (option year) if we resign Moose. All these dudes will contribute in the 2nd half and/or down the stretch.

In. Coin flip on the division but I think WC for sure. I see Aguilar getting back to the solid player he is, Hiura taking his game to another level, the rotation stabilizing and the pen being improved. I also think Cain becomes more consistent playing with the injury. I think Shaw comes in handy down the stretch too.

I'd say no, not at this point. Heading into May 28 he had a 2.22 ERA. He's had 16 outings since May 28 throwing 19ip not 18.1. FOUR of those outings have resulted in him giving up 7H and 10 ER in 4ip. He's given up 22 ER on the entire season. That cripples the ERA. The final couple weeks he's looked like he's hit a wall and needs some rest. This is the first full season he's been a straight pen arm and he's on pace to throw like 85 innings, a few more than Hader last year, except he's doing it without getting 3+ days off between outings like Hader got. I think the rest over the AS break will benefit him greatly as was just getting worn down and losing his control near the end.

People think the Brewers are mediocre because they look at the teams record without any context. We play in the toughest division in baseball where 5 teams are beating up on each other. The Reds are in last place with 41 wins and their win % is better than 8 teams in MLB (that's almost 2 full divisions worth of teams). This team isn't close to mediocre. Looking at something on the surface and believing that's reality is what this site does and this is another prime example of that.

Well when you assume everyone is going to pitch next year exactly to their current stat lines it's easy to determine the pen won't be loaded. Except Jeffress had a 2.52 ERA until mid-June then had a stretch the final half of last month that saw his ERA rise 1.5 runs. Same goes for Guerra as he had a 3.08 ERA until the final 2wks of the first half. He's been far from awful. Claudio stands out as being the most inconsistent vet pen arm and his walk rate has doubled from previous years but since the start of June he's looked much better and settled in dropping his ERA 2 full runs (could also be how they're using him too). Houser has dominated in the pen and needs to be back there once the rotation is stabilized with an acquisition. Even if Burnes stays in the pen next year he's settled in with a 2.91 ERA since the beginning of June and was great there last year (I think he still ends up in the rotation as his stuff is too good). Peralta only seems comfortable when starting or entering the game early (prior to the 5th or later). It's clear removing Hader from the pen makes it worse because he's elite. In order to load the pen next year if he's gone we'd have to replace him with a boderline AS arm, have Knebel be solid and replace both Claudio and Peralta with very good/consistent pen arms. That could happen but most likely won't so I agree with you there. Losing Hader right now would be a big blow and there's no way around that but I think your take on the rest of the pen is misleading.