Nato_Coles

Solid trade. Fingers crossed for Winker's bouncing back post-surgery. WRC+ and OPS and such will be the stats I'll be using to judge that, more than WAR, as he'll get the usual DH penalty if he's correctly deployed. Then, the addition of Toro is an absolutely high-ceiling/low-floor kinda depth trade. Solid. And... Bring on the Turang Test! Let's see how those enemy robots fare...

Hard to argue with these, except maybe Lauer. But it's hard to remember the framing of the discussion when Keston Hiura becoming a pretty decent player again (and for that matter, Christian Yelich adding 10 points to his OPS+ and running the bases really well too) is so important to the Brewers while Hoby Milner is a medium-to-medium-high leverage reliever with an OPS+ of 105. We can also talk about how it took until somewhere around Labor Day for Brandon Woodruff's FIP and ERA to sync but here's the thing about FIP: it doesn't show up in the box score. However, if we're talking within 2022 (I know we're not but bear with me) it's worth noting just how much better results Woody got from June onwards. Most improved within season goes to him.

Hard to argue with these, except maybe Lauer. But it's hard to remember the framing of the discussion when Keston Hiura becoming a pretty decent player again (and for that matter, Christian Yelich adding 10 points to his OPS+ and running the bases really well too) is so important to the Brewers while Hoby Milner is a medium-to-medium-high leverage reliever with an OPS+ of 105. We can also talk about how it took until somewhere around Labor Day for Brandon Woodruff's FIP and ERA to sync but here's the thing about FIP: it doesn't show up in the box score. However, if we're talking within 2022 (I know we're not but bear with me) it's worth noting just how much better results Woody got from June onwards. Most improved within season goes to him.

Thanks for the on-the-ground observations. I appreciate them! Interesting that you'll go so far as to put that gap between Frelick and Chourio. I have no opinion either way, beyond what scouts and writers say. I'll be keeping an eye out regardless (made it to that Timber Rattlers game where they came back from down 7 to 0 and nearly won it, though - so I suppose I saw Chourio run a few down that night, although I had to leave to drive back to the Twin Cities before the rally).

Thanks for the on-the-ground observations. I appreciate them! Interesting that you'll go so far as to put that gap between Frelick and Chourio. I have no opinion either way, beyond what scouts and writers say. I'll be keeping an eye out regardless (made it to that Timber Rattlers game where they came back from down 7 to 0 and nearly won it, though - so I suppose I saw Chourio run a few down that night, although I had to leave to drive back to the Twin Cities before the rally).

Hmm, Chourio not a centerfielder, eh? I know that, on the other hand, Esteury Ruiz wasn't initially projected as a CF but has sort of played his way upward into that role, which is good, and of course he's probably the fastest position player that a Brewers fan who follows the minor leagues to any extent can name. Of course, speed isn't everything in CF; how's Chourio on jumps and tracking fly balls? Could he project as a sort of Whit Merrifield part-time CF, part-time 2B? Meanwhile, Sam Dykstra has his newest MLB Top 100 prospects list up, and also McCalvy has an updated Brewers Top 30 prospects at mlb.com, I was interested to see that besides Chourio's newsworthy blastoff into the upper echelon (discussed often enough of late), Sal Frelick is now also considered a national Top 50 prospect on the rise by people outside Brewers media. McCalvy has him with top hit and run tools, but not so much fielding; Chourio ranks in fielding and speed. I don't want to get too optimistic but an outfield of Esteury/Jackson/Sal looks good in any alignment to me, really, although Sal probably plays the least CF if he plays any. And I haven't even mentioned Joey Weimer! And what if Garrett Mitchell can still put things together? It's almost an embarrassment of hypothetical outfield riches. Then again... If you're still a prospect, you're still a suspect, too.

Hmm, Chourio not a centerfielder, eh? I know that, on the other hand, Esteury Ruiz wasn't initially projected as a CF but has sort of played his way upward into that role, which is good, and of course he's probably the fastest position player that a Brewers fan who follows the minor leagues to any extent can name. Of course, speed isn't everything in CF; how's Chourio on jumps and tracking fly balls? Could he project as a sort of Whit Merrifield part-time CF, part-time 2B? Meanwhile, Sam Dykstra has his newest MLB Top 100 prospects list up, and also McCalvy has an updated Brewers Top 30 prospects at mlb.com, I was interested to see that besides Chourio's newsworthy blastoff into the upper echelon (discussed often enough of late), Sal Frelick is now also considered a national Top 50 prospect on the rise by people outside Brewers media. McCalvy has him with top hit and run tools, but not so much fielding; Chourio ranks in fielding and speed. I don't want to get too optimistic but an outfield of Esteury/Jackson/Sal looks good in any alignment to me, really, although Sal probably plays the least CF if he plays any. And I haven't even mentioned Joey Weimer! And what if Garrett Mitchell can still put things together? It's almost an embarrassment of hypothetical outfield riches. Then again... If you're still a prospect, you're still a suspect, too.

Barring injury, Luis Urias is going to start 130+ games for the Brewers in 2023. This is the reality of the team. If Brosseau(?) should get more starts against lefties, if Kiura(?!) should get more starts against lefties, then we'll see if they do, but both are arbitration eligible starting next year and we Brewers fans know what that means - the clock is ticking. Hiura plays defense about as well as I do (ok, a little better, but you know what I'm saying), and Brosseau isn't much better, and neither is anything close to proven as a multi-year good option at the plate. Luis Urias while also arb eligible in 2023 is markedly better defensively by bWAR metrics, even if he sometimes makes embarrassing throws and other fielding decisions. With Wong likely off to less hoppy pastures, Urias in a 2B/3B role with support from one, both, or all three of Brosseau, Hiura, and Turang looks most likely, with the latter also (hopefully) seeing time backing up Adames at short. So, what to do with Urias? Keep playing him and hope he remains at least a smidge above 2.0 WAR per season, and pray for the outfield prospects to save us all with their bats and speed one fine beautiful day in the future, ASAFP. That's about all I've got.

Barring injury, Luis Urias is going to start 130+ games for the Brewers in 2023. This is the reality of the team. If Brosseau(?) should get more starts against lefties, if Kiura(?!) should get more starts against lefties, then we'll see if they do, but both are arbitration eligible starting next year and we Brewers fans know what that means - the clock is ticking. Hiura plays defense about as well as I do (ok, a little better, but you know what I'm saying), and Brosseau isn't much better, and neither is anything close to proven as a multi-year good option at the plate. Luis Urias while also arb eligible in 2023 is markedly better defensively by bWAR metrics, even if he sometimes makes embarrassing throws and other fielding decisions. With Wong likely off to less hoppy pastures, Urias in a 2B/3B role with support from one, both, or all three of Brosseau, Hiura, and Turang looks most likely, with the latter also (hopefully) seeing time backing up Adames at short. So, what to do with Urias? Keep playing him and hope he remains at least a smidge above 2.0 WAR per season, and pray for the outfield prospects to save us all with their bats and speed one fine beautiful day in the future, ASAFP. That's about all I've got.

I was at the Timber Rattlers game last night. It was my first time at Neuromancer Group Field, excuse me Neuroscience Group Field, and I had a great time. I had to drive to Minneapolis that night so I couldn't stay late. Looks like I missed most of the Rattlers offense action (and although I got to see a couple Chourio catches, none of his better plate appearances)! D'oh. Ah well, can't argue geography. I was intrigued by Joe Gray Jr.. I didn't know him, but the "playbill" booklet had him as a Top 30 Brewers prospect. Also, in a "get to ,know the player" fun section, Gray Jr. says his dream vacation would be to "the center of the earth." Damn. I can DEFINITELY get behind that. Out of the box thinking! He's fast running out of the box, too.

This is a good trade. With the small-budget Brewers, we need to do things like this, painful though it may be. And I'll add that I don't believe this trade happens if Devin Williams isn't having his incredible year (somehow seemingly under the radar, or maybe it's just me). He's 3rd in all baseball among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched, as far as Fangraphs WPA goes. By way of contrast and comparison, Josh Hader (as we might all sense, if not already know) is 1st in all baseball since 2018 in that stat, but he's not anywhere near Williams this year. So, yeah, save the money, give Devin more 9th innings (and 8th-and-9th-innings), and plug Rogers in. His FIP is much lower than his ERA. And as far as the other three? Dinelson Lamet posted a 201 ERA+ in 2020. That's otherworldly. Then he got hurt and very much sunk to earth. If there's anything left there, you know the Brewers are better than most at finding it. Robert Gasser should turn into something good, he's pitched better than expected this year. As for Eleury Diaz, he is really interesting. I have four or five good friends in San Diego; you know we've been texting today. And it seems almost as if they're most sad to see Diaz go. They know how he's hit in Double- and Triple-A this year (that >.450 obp... wow), they know how insanely good at running and stealing bases he is, and apparently San Diego (and presumably the Brewers) have seen marked recent improvement in his centerfield defense, according to I believe Dennis Lin of the Athletic (their Padres beat reporter). Garrett Mitchell may never hit above Single-A. Jackson Chourio is still so young. Rolling the dice on a potential diamond-in-the-rough find on Diaz? I love it. Now trade Omar Narvaez for something major-league-ready, hopefully something capable of smashing the baseball, and we're talking. Or not! He's pretty good in Milwaukee as is. It's just that there's that catching surplus now that Severino is back.

One other thing I forgot to mention: his babip this year is a career low. It's .269, against .315 for his career. So those of you (us?) who are at least slightly high on this trade, keep in mind that 1. his 2022 hitting stats may be primed for a bounce-back, and 2. The Brewers and A's definitely know this. #1 is a good thing for Laureano and any time that would acquire him. #2, not so good for the teams that would seek to acquire him, in terms of cost, but on the other hand... babip is merely predictive, and predictions sometimes don't come true.

One other thing I forgot to mention: his babip this year is a career low. It's .269, against .315 for his career. So those of you (us?) who are at least slightly high on this trade, keep in mind that 1. his 2022 hitting stats may be primed for a bounce-back, and 2. The Brewers and A's definitely know this. #1 is a good thing for Laureano and any time that would acquire him. #2, not so good for the teams that would seek to acquire him, in terms of cost, but on the other hand... babip is merely predictive, and predictions sometimes don't come true.

Interesting. Yeah, I was wondering how much playing in the Bartertown Thunderdome I mean Oakland Coliseum was hurting his numbers this year. That said, this is a down year for him compared to his entire career. Maybe a change of scenery would do the trick? All I know is: he's a good, but not great, target. The Brewers should investigate but should be smart buyers/traders.

Interesting. Yeah, I was wondering how much playing in the Bartertown Thunderdome I mean Oakland Coliseum was hurting his numbers this year. That said, this is a down year for him compared to his entire career. Maybe a change of scenery would do the trick? All I know is: he's a good, but not great, target. The Brewers should investigate but should be smart buyers/traders.

This is the crux of the matter. We need a rental CF for about 1.75 years...!

This is the crux of the matter. We need a rental CF for about 1.75 years...!

I suggested this in the comments a couple days ago - not doubling down though. If the price is low enough, this would be a particularly good move as CF is the most pressing need. But. He's not great defensively; with Yeli and Renfroe you can pick up some slack on either side of him to an extent. Frankly we were spoiled by Lorenzo Cain's defense nd we may not see his equal for some time. His bat is good... UNLESS this down year is predictive of an earlier decline than usual for a guy like him. My take is that the Brewers absolutely should kick the tires here and pounce if it makes sense. Chourio is coming. But when? Debut mid 2023? First good year 2024? And where else can we find a proven CF who is available right now, for 2022? Laureano, for the right price, is the move to make. But if the A's want too much, I say look elsewhere or stand pat. I live in Minneapolis and also see the Twins a lot and consider them my secondary rooting interest. That's a team that NEEDS to upgrade (pitching, all of it). The Brewers can legit win the NL Central without changing anything. Laureano is not great, but he would be good, and perhaps even help them catch the #2 seed.

I suggested this in the comments a couple days ago - not doubling down though. If the price is low enough, this would be a particularly good move as CF is the most pressing need. But. He's not great defensively; with Yeli and Renfroe you can pick up some slack on either side of him to an extent. Frankly we were spoiled by Lorenzo Cain's defense nd we may not see his equal for some time. His bat is good... UNLESS this down year is predictive of an earlier decline than usual for a guy like him. My take is that the Brewers absolutely should kick the tires here and pounce if it makes sense. Chourio is coming. But when? Debut mid 2023? First good year 2024? And where else can we find a proven CF who is available right now, for 2022? Laureano, for the right price, is the move to make. But if the A's want too much, I say look elsewhere or stand pat. I live in Minneapolis and also see the Twins a lot and consider them my secondary rooting interest. That's a team that NEEDS to upgrade (pitching, all of it). The Brewers can legit win the NL Central without changing anything. Laureano is not great, but he would be good, and perhaps even help them catch the #2 seed.

Why not consider trying to trade for Ramon Laureano? His career OPS - with half the games in a pitcher's park - against lefties is .817. He's not an elite defender, but flanked by Yeli and Renfroe (or Tyrone Taylor), he'll be more than fine. I wonder what the A's would want for him? He's arb-eligible next year, a free agent in 2025, and having a down year at the plate, so every year the A's have hung onto him he's lost value. Now might be the time to strike, assuming the Brewers think his lesser first half is a fluke and would want to go that way. I agree that the infield isn't the pressing need right now - Tellez holds it down, Brosseau kills lefties already, and Jace is coming back. Obviously Stearns likes to get creative, but at the end of the day it's a lefty-hitting CF that would be most valuable and Laureano has shown in his career to be exactly that.