strawbossisevil

TheCrew07, The Brewers would need to trade bluechip players in order to get Impact Arms (Garza is a perfect example, the Rays only got him by trading a guy who most expected to put up Braun-type numbers every season). So we are talking about trading players like Braun or Fielder. You don't get impact arms for the Harts and Hardy's of the world. That's unrealistic. Very few teams get impact arms in trades, the amount of times it happens is extremely limited. And even when the trades are made, those pitchers still do have a high flameout rate. Impact arms have to come from inside of the system most of the time, with only a few rare exceptions. You can point to TB all you want, but the moves they made are the exception rather than the rule of how most moves are made in the MLB, and in fact this is becoming even more true as currently young pitching is even more highly valued than it was 5 years ago. On top of that, it's easy to deride certain players now that you know how things turned out, but Capellan was a very highly regarded prospect, someone who was seen as being a top of the rotation starter, an impact arm. Not only by the Brewers but by Baseball America, one of the most respected independent scouting groups in all of baseball. And calling Kolb washed up when we traded him was far from the truth, he had a great year before the trade, and didn't begin his huge downslide until he arrived in Atlanta. Capellan was rated as high as Ryan Braun was by Baseball America in 2006, and three spots higher than the Devil Ray's Jackson if that gives you any idea as to how highly he was considered around the baseball community at the time of the trade. Baseball Notebook, another respected scouting source, had him as the top SP prospect in the NL (http://www.baseballnotebo...spects%20NL%20Pitchers). Your idea that he wasn't an impact arm is completely unfounded, he was pretty much universally recognized as just that. And I'll add this, I remember not all that long ago the days of Ben Sheets and the horrible Brewers offense. How, early in his career, despite putting up great numbers, Sheets often lost more games than he won. I remember the ridiculous discussions about how he wasn't an ace because he didn't win games. The problem, however, wasn't with Ben, it was that our team had a horrible offense. Good pitching with a horrible offense is going to struggle to win games just as much as a good offense struggles to win games with horrible pitching. You need a combination of both to succeed. The Brewers have the above average offense, and they are currently in the process of developing the pitching side of things (much like the Phillies did in your illustration). Hopefully around 2012 or so, the combination of pitching prospects and our potent offense will yield the success we are all hoping for. And hopefully trading Fielder will bring in an impact arm who will be able to help in that reconstruction of the rotation. I think our team is going to be in very, very good shape going into 2012 and 2013 and we should see another run during that time period before we once again have to go into rebuilding mode. I think things will go cyclically for the Brewers as they bounce back and forth between needing pitching and hitting, with the times of real success being the occasional year where both come together at the same time. Also, in regard to all of these deals that you have come up with that you seem to think would have made better sense for the Brewers to go with. The burden of proof is on you to prove that these deals would have been available to the Brewers. Acting as if these players being available can be an objective part of an argument without any proof is comical.

Crew07, People have pointed out the flaws in your reasoning a number of times. So much of your argument fails because it is incapable of knowing what Melvin was offered for the pieces you list. You continually bring up Marcum from Toronto without having any knowledge of whether Toronto made him available to the Brewers. You just aren't capable of stating such things as objective truth, it isn't that simple. I think you handwaved over the Overbay trade in getting Zach Jackson. Now, Jackson flamed out as a AAAA player, but he was seen as a huge piece in that deal, a guy who had the potential to be a #2 or #3 in the bigs. That's a fairly high ceiling! But it's a ceiling he never hit. The other guy he added, Bush, was more of a projectable middle of the rotation guy, so Doug went after both types in that deal. He didn't have a super amount of leverage and let's not act as if Overbay was a huge trading commodity, he was an average offensive 1B. In the Sexson trade the Brewers did the exact same thing. They went with one high ceiling arm (JDLR) and one projectable arm (Capuano). It turns out that Capuano reached the peak of his potential (solid #2) while JDLR never came close to his high ceiling (at least with the Brewers). In the trading of Kolb (a closer) the Brewers received one of the Braves top pitching prospects in Capellan (just like the D-Rays selling on their closer). A guy recognized by many including Baseball America as having a very high ceiling. The difference was that the move paid off for the Rays (with Jackson) and didn't pay off for the Brewers. In the LaPorta trade, the Brewers did give up two B grade prospects for a shot at the playoffs. It paid off (and without that move we may have not made the playoffs at all during the time of the Fielder/Braun combo - a possibility that you still refuse to admit to). LaPorta and Brantley could have theoretically been moved for a pitcher, but with Brantley's lack of power and LaPorta's hole in his swing, I don't know how good of a pitching prospect they would have netted us. That is up to speculation, but going with the other pitcher almost certainly would have meant no playoffs in '08. Also calling Nix a high floor guy isn't being honest. He was a high ceiling type player, and had previously been one of Texas' top prospects (although he had fallen a bit from the team's favor). That was a buy low/change of scenery situation if I ever saw one, he just never met his potential. So if you look at the majority of Melvin's major moves. Aside from the Lee/Cordero move all of them addressed starting pitching. The Kolb deal, the Overbay deal, and the Sexson deal all went after young high ceiling pitching. The difference between us and the Rays is that all their moves paid off handsomely (Garza rebounded from his poor start with Minnesota, Jackson met his potential etc.) while the Brewer's high ceiling guys all flopped when trying to make the transition to the big leagues. To say Melvin has done nothing is dishonest, he's tried, it just hasn't worked out despite bringing in high ceiling guys. And, with the moving on of Jack Z, he along with Bruce S have changed our draft focus to target more high ceiling pitchers a few years ago. That wave of pitchers, however, are still about a year or two away at this point.

Melvin's pitching problems all come from a lack of top of the rotation starters. He's done fine bringing in the guys to fill in the middle and back end of the rotation. Unfortunately, top of the rotation starters almost always have to come from within one's own organization or via the trade of an elite player. The Brewers under Jack Z didn't get enough pitching prospects into the minors, and the good pitching prospects he did add, all came up lame for one reason or another (although there is still a LOT of hope with a few of them (Rogers/Jeffress), but their arrival has been delayed significantly). I think Melvin has been pretty average in regards to his responsibilities when it comes to the pitching staff. He has managed to bring in some pretty solid bottom of the rotation starters via trade. I think even Bush (pre-injury) would count as a pretty solid pick up. But him having a middling budget and no money to go after a pitcher like Sabathia, and having no advance starting pitching prospects, has left him little choice but to have to sign middle of the road starters. I think to look at the pitching staff and say "it stinks" and therefore Melvin "stinks" is far too simplistic. You have to look at the "why", and a lot of the "why" falls on the lack of players provided to the team by Jack Z.

Sorry. I just think it is best to address a person's post thought by thought, rather than lump my whole argument at the end where I feel it lends itself to greater misunderstanding/misrepresentation. I don't know how else I would do this other than nesting my comments (perhaps there is some way that I am unaware of).

Are you really this disingenuous? That was from much, much earlier in the conversation. I responded to your point about Cameron, Hoffman etc not being capable of bringing in a "decent starter" and called your assertions that a good-GM would have traded them for that type of pitcher ridiculous and unrealistic. You countered by claiming that I was putting words in your mouth by saying that those players could have brought in a #1/#2 starter. Something I never once said. Heck, even in the disingenuously quoted quote I don't say that.

The question is, though, which is more likely? How many Freidman's are there in the league vs. how many GMs that would be a downgrade to Melvin. If Melvin is (for argument's sake) in the top third. You are far more likely to end up getting worse than better by making a change. The amount of young pitchers moved for less than top impact talent is minuscule. Freidman has been able to do it on a few occasions because he is working with what is the deepest farm system in baseball. His move for Garza is a perfect example. He gave up a player who was seen by most as a guy who would be a perennial all star for a guy who had top of the rotation potential. It worked out as Young flamed out, and Garza has shined. I don't think the Brewers have a "can't miss prospect" like Young in their system currently, as players like him typically come from the top of the first round. All in all, Freidman is a good GM. But there is a reason why these trades are very atypical. Trading top of the rotation or even middle of the rotation prospects just doesn't happen very often at all. Expecting a future GM to match that is being unrealistic IMO. In my mind it is like releasing Prince Fielder in the hopes that the next 1b we sign is going to play like Albert Pujols. It is setting up an unrealistic expectation and will likely end in further disappointment.

Ah yes, he should just trade for a young guy who will be a top/middle of the rotation starter. How can Melvin not understand this? It's so simple!

I haven't clicked on the gift. But everytime a page loads I've been noticing that it is loading something related to facebook. This really is slowing down the loading of pages on this forum for me. Is there anything that can be done so that whatever facebook is trying to load can be blocked so that this doesn't continue to have such a slowing effect on my Brewerfan addiction?

I was wondering if anyone has heard how Mark is doing in his rehab? I was a big fan of his last season and really wish he could have continued his success at the big league level. Is a return at all possible for Mark in the next year or two?

Right, I hesitated in adding them to the list because it wouldn't happen for a variety of reasons (being in the same division being another big reason why it wouldn't happen). My point was though, there are plenty of teams out there even now that would love to have Fielder on their team already this season, and most definitely going forward. Also, the majority of the teams on that list have the financial capacity of signing Fielder to a long term deal (with the exceptions being Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh). We don't need to wait so that the Chicago Cubs come into the picture, it isn't in our team's best interest for Fielder to end up in the North Side to begin with.

If you open up the possibility of him being a DH, it opens up a bunch more options. Teams that could currently use a DH, a 1B, or both this season and going into next season (this is without looking at the farmsystems, so perhaps that could rule some of these out): NY YankeesTampa BayTorontoChi WhitesoxLA AngelsSeattleAtlantaPittsburghLA DodgersSan Francisco

JDLR and Cappellan both fit that bill (despite the fact that Crew07 doesn't want to admit that Cappellan was a very highly regarded prospect at the time by Baseball America). Chris Capuano, while not a power arm, was another pitcher that he brought in who was more of a prospect than anything else (only 33 innings in the MLB before coming to Milwaukee). Seth McClung was a power arm and only 24 years old when Doug brought him in. The real issue is that power arms just aren't typically moved around unless they have significant flaws, such as serious control issues. There are some famous exceptions but they are famous just for that reason, they are the exceptions. And quite often those exceptions have led to a GM's head being served up on a platter. The top of the rotation studs typically aren't moved at all unless they get multiple superstars in return. An cost-controlled ace at 400k per year (for three years), is far more valuable to a team than a stud hitter at 10 million per year.