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brewfanmn

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Everything posted by brewfanmn

  1. brewfanmn
    Not that I would read into these numbers at all, but he's actually been quite good this season with runners on base, and better than with the bases empty. Empty: 18% K, 11% BB, 1.4 HR/9, 5.44 FIP, 4.50 xFIP (.293 BABIP) Men on: 22% K, 12% BB, 0.3 HR/9, 3.25 FIP, 3.82 xFIP (.329 BABIP) This seems like a pretty silly narrative.
  2. brewfanmn
    Montas, who — to be clear, despite all the over-reactionary posts at the beginning of this thread — turned in 5ip with 0 ER and 6 K against an elite lineup and has a 3.86 ERA with even better peripherals since joining the Brewers… Truly a shocker that a veteran starter with a 7-year track record of being an above-average ML SP when healthy could help win a game in a playoff push.
  3. brewfanmn
    Literally has one of the highest launch angles in baseball -- top 4%: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?sort=launch_angle_avg&sortDir=desc
  4. brewfanmn
    Whoa. Civil discourse on the internet where two people initially disagree but find common ground after explaining a position backed by research? Is that allowed?!
  5. brewfanmn
    I just prefer not to evaluate pitchers (especially in a single start) by hits / runs which are obviously very flukey in small samples, and instead prefer to go by the things that are much more in the pitcher’s control (namely, the quality of their stuff and their ability to generate strikeouts while limiting walks). There are mountains of evidence that prove those are by far the most predictive things a pitcher can demonstrate in a small sample. Obviously he wouldn’t be the acquisition of the deadline if he allowed 3 ER in 5 IP every time out. My point is that if he continues sitting upper 90’s with a great K:BB ratio, he will not allow the hits / runs he did tonight. He had a 2.66 xFIP in his start tonight; if he had a 2.66 xFIP the rest of the season, he would be overwhelmingly likely to be the acquisition of the deadline.
  6. brewfanmn
    Man, we had very different takeaways from tonight’s performance. I’ll take a season-high 95-99 MPH with a strikeout per inning and no walks every time. If that’s what he does every start for the rest of the year, he will be the acquisition of the deadline. I was very encouraged by what I saw.
  7. brewfanmn
    Your assumption would be incorrect — he is just as tough on lefties if not tougher than he is on righties. Has had a higher K% vs. lefties than righties in every year of his career
  8. brewfanmn
    What fundamentally changed about the team or players between May 30 and June 3? Do those games not count? If you change the start date to “the start date of the season” I think you’ll find that the Brewers are the ~10th best offense in baseball
  9. brewfanmn
    The Brewers have relied heavily on the opener -- Bryse Wilson and Colin Rea have combined for 41.6 "relief" innings following an opener. If you count those "opener" innings as the relief innings, and they drop down to 9th. I'm not sure how frequently other teams have used the opener, but it feels like the Brewers have been one of the more aggressive opener teams in the league this year which is going to significantly skew these numbers. As others have said, the main leverage relief guys don't appear to actually be overworked in general.
  10. brewfanmn
    If you are in favor of the last two picks, then by definition you are in favor of the first two picks as well.
  11. brewfanmn
    Freddy Peralta since the All-Star Break last year: 29 GS -- 3.47 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 2.98 xFIP -- 33% K, 7% BB #12 SP in MLB in FIP-WAR #21 SP in MLB in RA9-WAR #3 SP in MLB in K-BB% (min. 100 IP) #4 SP in MLB in xFIP (min. 100 IP) And people on here talk about trading this guy? Removed from reality.
  12. brewfanmn
    League-average wRC+ out of the cleanup spot is 110. For teams who would be in the playoffs right now, it is 113. Adames' wRC+ for the year is 117. He is an above-average cleanup hitter for a playoff team.
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