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And That

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Everything posted by And That

  1. And That
    So you want to know more about Luis Contreras.
  2. And That
    I’m less worried about Carlos filling out his frame - he’s a pretty slight guy - than I am about his early-career proclivity to not take walks. He has well above average bat to ball skill but he’s been swinging at everything so far from what I’ve seen of him.
  3. And That
    Lemons has not had Tommy John surgery. That's a bad report.
  4. And That
    I did some math on Twitter, and came to the conclusion that... the trade is probably fine. Depends both on whether Dubon's value had peaked at a lower value than we thought, and what the Brewers think of Ray Black. If Dubon was shopped on the open market and was not valued at anything over a 45 OFP by other teams, the Brewers are taking a risk that Ray Black will be worth at least 1 WAR before he hits arbitration. That's not a huge risk. OTOH, if the Brewers sold low on Dubon to get Black, the Brewers must really think they can unlock Black. At a 50 OFP For Dubon, Black would have to either be worth 2.5 WAR before arbitration (extraordinarily unlikely), or the Brewers plan on holding onto him into arbitration (more than a few years). We'll probably never know if they sold lower than necessary on Dubon, though, and there is some evidence to suggest that a 45 OFP was the proper valuation.
  5. And That
    Lordy please let it be at least 10.
  6. And That
    It's probably because he's been pitching out of the pen in MLB this year, but Faria's 4S FB velo has ticked up 2-2.5 MPH over 2018.
  7. And That
    Jake Faria has no options remaining after this season.
  8. And That
  9. And That
    Final: AZL Padres2 13, AZL Brewers Gold 11 AZL Brewers Gold Box Score The Gold scored 11 of the games' final 13 runs and still lost anyway. Home runs from rehabbing Pablo Abreu and Francis Florentino (who also added a double). Cam Robinson, Zach Vennaro, and Jose Parra pitched the final four innings and gave the offense a fighting chance, allowing no earned runs (with two unearned runs scoring). Parra's ERA is still 0.00, now through 20 2/3 innings pitched this year. AZL Brewers Gold Game Log
  10. And That
    Final: AZL Royals 5, AZL Brewers Blue 3 AZL Brewers Blue Box Score Brent Suter pitched, Orveo Saint hit his first pro home run, and the Blues lost their second in a row. AZL Brewers Blue Game Log
  11. And That
    The median drop-off kind of is what it is. I'm assuming the veracity of the data is fine, which if it is, the drop-off appears to exist. As I said, the 5th overall seems to be a bad luck pick of sorts, looking at the median outcome. And the median outcome was used and not the mean, I assume, because it eliminates the fact that every slot in the first round of the draft has had superstars drafted in it and that skews the average outcome of the pick. If you have 20 nobodys, and also Babe Ruth, it's going to look like the average is pretty decent. There's only a little over 50 years of data, so with that sort of small-ish population, large numbers at the top can still definitely skew an average. Should teams feel that drafting at 14 overall is a lost cause? Of course not. Luck and scouting skill can absolutely increase the odds. But "should" the 14th overall be a solid MLB contributor? History seems to indicate that should not be a foregone conclusion, or even be assumed to be a likely outcome.
  12. And That
    Here's what I've been saying in this thread, except when I said it in December: viewtopic.php?p=1188765#p1188765 viewtopic.php?p=1188875#p1188875 viewtopic.php?p=1188947#p1188947
  13. And That
    Ok? He's young for the league.
  14. And That
  15. And That
    Grisham has a 173 wRC+ and a 178 DRC+ in AAA. Relative to a league full of mashers, his offensive production is about 75% better than said mashers. 75%. People also tend to forget how young he is, I think. 21 months ago, he was not legally able to drink.
  16. And That
    As for the "shoulds" and "shouldn'ts"... The research is about two years old, but a buddy of mine dug into this, and the median WAR for the 14th overall pick in the modern incarnation of the Rule 4 draft is, drumroll... -0.3. Yes, negative WAR. While most 14th overall picks made it, most were contributors of almost no note at the MLB level. By trading Medeiros for Soria, the Brewers (sort of) guaranteed that the pick turned into some sort of value, which is more than what usually happens. It's a very risk-off move. The 5th overall pick is interesting in that it has the lowest incidence of MLBers drafted at that pick of any pick before #15 overall. So it's kind of a bad luck pick. So somewhat crazily, the median WAR out of the 5th overall pick is -1.1. This is all using bWAR, by the way. Really after the top 4 picks in the draft, it's a huge crapshoot. The idea that a 5th overall pick or 14th overall pick should or shouldn't be something is not born out by draft position. It's luck with a hint of skill.
  17. And That
    Not really, no.
  18. And That
    I said the marginal cost, which is $3.5MM less whatever they’re paying the guys who have been pitching instead of Lyles. Not sure I follow your Saladino analogy. He was never making the MLB team, unless there were a rash of injuries. In which case they probably would have brought someone else in. Probably not for $4-$5MM though.
  19. And That
    What evidence do you have that he was better than the pitchers who pitched instead? Barnes and Williams had much lower career FIPs (and still do), and cost a lot less (and still do). Well, Lyles had a better fWAR than either Barnes or Williams last year. I think all three are about similarly skilled as relievers. Relievers are volatile though, so why not keep all three? Plus Lyles had shown the ability to start/swing, which neither Williams not Barnes have shown the ability to do. Clearly, Lyles did indeed show promise as a starter for 10+ starts this year. Williams and Barnes will never do that.
  20. And That
    Rocky Mountain postponed until tomorrow due to field conditions. They’ll play a doubleheader on Tuesday.
  21. And That
    The trickle down effect of not having a reliable guy like Lyles available in the pen is you have Corbin Burnes getting overexposed in MLB with no better options, not to mention a firewall against the Burch Smiths and Jake Petrickas of the world. I’m not saying he would have ably filled in for Knebel or anything. But the marginal cost of keeping Lyles over the pitchers who pitched instead is say $2 million. The Brewers will have nearly $140MM in payroll expenses this year. That’s less than 1.5% of payroll for insurance. That’s worth it to me.
  22. And That
    Yah, pitchers get injured in spring training. I don’t think this is controversial.
  23. And That
    Either Barnes or Williams. Both had options. Also would have made the Alex Wilson experience unnecessary. If you foresaw Knebel and Jeffress getting injured during spring training, requiring the need for the Alex Wilson experience, I'd like to know what Wednesday's Powerball numbers are. Split it with you, 60% you, 40% me. Who could foresee pitching injuries in spring training.
  24. And That
    jay jackson has his old number though That just makes it worth more
  25. And That
    I believe this is the only correct response to this news.
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