Matt Breen

This day was going to come sooner or later for Milwaukee. Our initial success was built on turning high draft picks into all-star caliber major leaguers. Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart - that was a good core, three of whom were top 10 picks. We supplemented that talent via trades and free agency, but that's expensive, and unsustainable for a team like Milwaukee. The way to stay good is keep funneling in cheap (meaning draft picks) all-star level talent. We just haven't done that. Guys like Scooter and Davis are nice additions, but this is not Fielder and Braun we are talking about. Our top picks just haven't panned out. Thus, we've bandaided our way to a few mediocre seasons, but now the bandaids aren't enough. As I said, this time was going to come eventually. It's happening rather quickly - I don't think anyone expected the team to collapse so quickly.

I think this, from the article, sums up our situation: This is the trap of indecisiveness. The Brewers never could figure out whether they were coming or going, unwilling (or unable) to commit to a rebuild or go full speed ahead on contention. What’s left is a team that was built for mediocrity with a one-in-a-million chance of something more

My wife broke her toe years ago, and if I recall she took about a month or so before she could go walking again. Her break was pretty deep, so it might be a worse case scenario. However, you never know how this will affect a ML catcher. I would think that would take longer, but that's just a guess. I wouldn't be surprised if you 1-2 month guess isn't far off.

A few people have mentioned Kapler. I always thought he'd be an interesting candidate. Seemed like a really intense, organized guy - a person who'd have a plan about how to accomplish what he wanted. I don't know how that would translate into being a manager, but you never know. I'd rather the club take a chance on someone than go with a retread.

Precisely. It's not like he's blocking Cy Young. We have Cravy and Jungmann can use the AAA time. No need to rush them. We're paying Lohse, so may as well use him.

Let's face it, this season is fast going in the toilet. The only way it is rescued is if a lot of guys suddenly start performing as expected (and better). That includes Lohse. You just need to keep pitching him. And even if the season does get lost, you have to have to start looking to the future. That means dealing assets - including Lohse. If he's regulated to the pen after a handful of starts, he'll never develop any value. You just have to keep sending him out there and hope he figures it out.

No walks again tonight.

I wonder if Counsell is more in line for a GM position.

Dusty Baker or Ron Washington available? My head exploded.

Just curious if people had any ideas for good managerial candidates in Milwaukee let's go of Roenicke. Any thoughts?

You could get rid of Braun by forcing him in a package (like what Atlanta did with Upton) trade. If you say, "If you want Lucroy, you have to take Braun." Of course, with $110 million owed him, you'd probably need to include a bunch of cash as well. Another thing would be to swap Braun for another horrible contract, but those are tough to match up at this point. Probably the best thing with Braun would be to just wait at this point. He has no value, but if (and that's a big if at this point) he starts hitting, you could potentially interest someone in him.

I always liked Reed. I love guys who get on base. I was disappointed when we lost Michael Brantley. All that said, from what I've read about Reed is that he profiles as a corner guy if he starts. He's just not that good of a CF. You can get away with him being out there on occasion, but you don't want him playing CF everyday. Another thing I read that was interesting was from a report from Baseball Prospectus mentioning Reed's hitting. The writer said the following: "He has some bat speed and he went up to the plate with a plan. I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in the bat off what I saw, though. The bat path was a bit loopy and the bat head lagged. Reed doesn’t get any torque from his lower half either. It’s very much an upper body swing. As a guy who can run and play all three outfield spots he profiles nicely on a big-league bench." http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25933 Having never seen Reed other than in video, the description jives with the results. Reed gets on base, but strikes out quite a lot, and doesn't hit for much power. He may need to make some adjustments to his hitting style if he wants to be a big league regular. I'm a sucker for guys who can get on base. I think it leads to better things. The good thing is that Reed has a lot going for him. Like the article said, he goes to the plate with a plan. A lot of guys don't do that. His next step may be to refine his hitting style a little. Interestingly, Tyrone Taylor has heard some of these same critiques. I've read some scouts question his batting stance - saying it won't lend itself to developing much power. It will be interesting to see how both these guys play out.

I would think RR is totally on the hot seat. Ownership expected the team to compete. You fired the hitting coach after last season, so you can't scapegoat Coles. The club will need a dramatic gesture, and you can't fire the players, which means canning RR. They need to do it soon if the club hopes to rebound from the hole they have dug themselves. Remember, management plays things very close to the vest - draft picks, trades, signings. We often don't have any clue they are coming. So I wouldn't be surprised if Mark A and Melvin are plotting RR's demise right now. They're probably looking at candidates so they can do something quickly. They don't want to fire RR, then say 'we have to do an extensive review of qualified people, blah, blah, blah...' That will only leave the players in limbo wondering who will be coming in, what will his style be, etc. Best just say, 'Ron is gone. We thank him. But we need to get this team, which is talented, back on track. We've hired [insert name] to get things in order.' No matter who it is, the club needs a jolt. We have no impact players at AAA, and it's not like trading for one or two guys is going to save the season, so a new manager is the simplest way to do kick start things at this juncture. It might be unrealistic to think we can rebound from our poor start, but it's still early, so you never know. Plus, even if the club doesn't get back into the playoff race, it would really help if some of our struggling players could re-establish some sort of trade value, so even if we go into more of a rebuild mode, you can perhaps trade them later in the season for prospects.

Interesting idea. Three years Luc at a discounted rate for a top 20 and a top 50 guy. That doesn't seem out of line in what you would expect. Boston, however, has been reluctant to deal Swihart already (for Hamels). If the club decided to rebuild, it's the kind of thing you try to do. As much as you hate losing Luc, adding two premium young players would be a nice starting point for rebuilding. Do the same thing with Gomez, and you're talking about something interesting around 2017-18 when Coulter, Arcia and Taylor are arriving in Milwaukee. Add in couple of years of top 10 draft draft picks. The team could have dealt Lohse and Parra this past off season. Maybe Garza as well. Saved money on signing A-Ram, Cotts, K-Rod. Not worried about getting Lind (although his nice season might be making him good trade bait). That could have saved the club $50M+ this past offseason. The challenge is you need a LOT of young talent because players just don't pan out. That means it's really hard to just do a half-hearted rebuild. You end up with mediocrity. I can't blame the team for doing what it did this past off season. They thought they had a chance. I just hope they aren't afraid to make the necessary moves to put us on a better course. The same middling path just isn't going to work.

I'll just go back to my old theory: you swing at crap, you get thrown crap. That means you miss or hit the ball weakly. No pitcher has any incentive to throw us good pitches if we swing at the bad ones.

This club had a lot of red flags. Flags everyone, including management, saw. This was a team that had a lot of downside, and limited upside. - A promising, but no sure thing, key rookie (Nelson). - A lot of not very pedestrian looking rookies and never-had-success guys on the bench (Schafer, H. Gomez, Jimenez). - Several key guys with limited, and sometimes mixed, track records of success (Davis, Scooter, Fiers) - plus limited upside. - Key aging players (Lohse, Ramirez). - Players coming off injuries (Braun, Lind, Thornburg, Henderson). - Very few players who possess the skill set and ability to more than just average (Peralta, maybe Segura, maybe Jeffress and Smith). - Only a few what I would be called 'sure things' - guys in their prime with extended track records of success (Lucroy, Gomez, Lind, Parra, maybe Garza). These are just a handful of things - I'm sure there are others. There was (and is) just a lot that can go wrong with this team. And outside of Braun returning to his PED-era self, the jump in performances that could be hoped for, just aren't that huge. You can sometimes navigate around red flags, but usually not all of them. Unfortunately, we are hitting most of the flags. I honestly think this team isn't that bad. Luc isn't going to hit sub-.200. And Lohse won't end up with a 10.00+ ERA. It doesn't mean we'll be great or anything - but averagish is still possible. If the club starts selling off assets, that could change, but for now, there's still some decent talent on the team.

They've never indicated so. It's been a 'rebuild and contend at the same time' approach. But I don't think things ever looked this bad.

12 strikeouts in 29 ABs. When I've seen him, he's looked lost. He's guessing, swinging at bad pitches, etc. Like you said, he's pressing (like a lot of guys on this team). My biggest fear is that Scooter isn't adjusting to how he is pitched. His slugging has steadily declined since he broke out in 2013. Last year after the all-star break, he had a .621 OPS. Yes, he had some injury issues, so you can attribute the decline to that. Plus hitting 8th - no one likes hitting in the eight spot. But the guy just doesn't walk much, and pitchers may simply have learned that he chases bad pitches. He can rake when the pitcher throws one over the plate, but pitchers probably just know not to give him stuff to hit. His aggressive style means more and more weak grounders as opposed to line drives. I look at Khris Davis and see a guy adjusting. He specifically said he needed to get back to his game - which meant a lot more patience. In the minors he usually had walk rates from 11-13%. Last year is was less than 6%. I think I remember he had 1 walk in his first 100 ABs. He's up to 9% (granted, small sample size) this year. I think that will pay off for him in the long run (as long as he stays with it). The HRs will come. Perhaps my fears about Scooter are more based on my preference for guys who take their walks and show a good eye at the plate. I'm a believer that if you don't swing at crap, the pitcher is eventually going to have to throw you more pitches in the strike zone (which are easier to hit and often are hit with more authority). You throw crap, and you swing at it, pitchers are just going to keep doing that. Why would they give you a good pitch to hit? Instead you strikeout or don't make solid contact. Some players are bad ball hitters. They have the athleticism and stature to drive crappy pitches - a guy like Scooter doesn't necessarily have those attributes. Personally, I don't expect Scooter to have an .800 OPS. But it doesn't mean he'll be bad. He's in a funk now, but guys usually rebound from bad spells. I'm not sold on his ability to hit lefties, but for now, I'd just like to see him start hitting righties like he has in the past.

Seeing the Brewers' guys is awesome. But take note of Dodger's AA pitcher Julio Urias - 10.2 innings, six hits allowed, 2 walks, 14 K, 0 runs. The kids is only 18 - won't turn 19 until August.

Matt Holliday has twice as many stolen bases as the Brewer team.

This team's inability to take a walk is really concerning. Coming into today, we had walked 17 times in 290 plate appearances. That's a 5.9% rate. Today we only have one walk. I realize that more walks doesn't always equal success. But it's something to look at. You swing at crap, teams will throw you crap. It often leads to a lot of strikeouts and weak contact.

Gomez is heading to Milwaukee to have his hammy looked at. Tom H. says that Gomez leaving the club is not a good sign. "If we weren't concerned at all, we wouldn't be sending him to Raasch," said manager Ron Roenicke. "Then we'll have to make a decision on how long it's going to be and whether its' a DL or not. We'll see what Raasch has to say." Parra takes over in CF in the meantime. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/300111261.html

I think a 3-4 year deal for $10/year is a little light, but maybe not. I was thinking more like $12-13 million a year. Being three years away from FA, it's a bit hard to judge. Molina got $15M a year for five years. McCann got $17M a year for five years. Of course, both those guys were free agents. No matter what, you probably save money if you sign him to the extension now. That's as opposed to waiting a few years - and most importantly - Luc still being a premium player.

I could see the team trading or letting Gomez go via FA simply because we have a potential replacement in the minors in Taylor. Catcher is another matter. No one looks like a full time player in our minor league system. The guys in the upper minors that could be big league players, Weisenburger and Centeno, are limited players. They look like potential backups, but that's it. Thus I could see the club extending Lucroy (assuming he's amenable to a deal). Luc is signed through the 2017 season, which is his age 31 season. That's generally the time to let a player go, but if no one is waiting in the wings to take over, signing him may be the best move. Like with the Braun deal, signing Luc to an extension now is probably not the best thing. Ideally, you wait until after 2016, see how he's doing health-wise and performance-wise, plus monitor the minor leaguers (perhaps we make a trade for a big time prospect between now and then, or draft an advanced catcher this year or maybe someone from the lower minors blossoms into a stud prospect). If no one is on the horizon after the 2016 season, you make the deal to extend Luc. Probably something like the Molina contract - 5-years and $75 million (Molina was entering his age 31 season and a FA. Luc would be a year away from free agency). No doubt Luc will decline as he ages, but his defense/pitch framing will hopefully help him retain good value as he ages. You could do the extension now and probably save some dollars. But then you have the risk of the player having health issues in the next three years, and end up regretting the deal (like with Braun).

One of the reasons the Nats are supposedly reluctant to extend Zimmerman and Strasburg is that both have had TJ surgery about 5-6 years ago. The general feeling is that the life expectancy on an arm after TJ is eight years. Knowing Jordan and Strasburg are going to command long term deals (probably minimum of six years), the club feels both players could be facing a second TJ a couple of years into their new - and very pricey - contract. And knowing that comebacks from second TJ surgeries are not pretty (the below article gives a player roughly a 20% chance to come back from a 2nd TJ, compared to 90% for a first), they don't want to risk the extension. This could play into why the club signed Scherzer - who's never had TJ. They feel he'll last longer than either Strasburg or Zimmerman - and even if Scherzer does need TJ, he's much more likely to rebound than the other guys. Here's an article on the subject: http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/fear-of-second-elbow-surgery-may-lead-to-zimmerman-strasburg-departures/2015/03/29/80367f62-d646-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html