Matt Breen
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Everything posted by Matt Breen
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Great topic. Great to hear old names. -
Exactly. Right now, there is no market. Teams aren't trading players. We own the hot stove. With that in mind, you start the trading process now. Don't wait two months to see if we can get back in the playoff race. This doesn't mean you have to deal someone - but it leaves the option open. Teams can overspend to acquire a player early - the A's got Samardzija last year at the all-star break. The Brewers did the same thing to get Sabathia back in 2008. In both cases, each team was willing to overspend to make the deal happen then and there instead of waiting until the end of July. It only takes one team to get antsy and pay a premium for a player. Again, you don't have to make a deal early (you don't even have to make a deal this season if there's nothing good on the table). But if a good offer is put on the table, don't be afraid to make the move.
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I think the Dodgers may be a tougher nut to crack with the management team in place. I think those guys are going to value their top flight minor leaguers. That said, you never know. I'd love Hoffman. He's coming off TJ and low in the system, so it might be the kind of big upside player who a team would be willing to give up (especially a pitcher). Guys who are ready to contribute in the majors are harder to give up (not impossible to give up, but harder).
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I think there's absolutely no reason to keep Adam Lind. He's been a great story, but move him while his value his high. Milwaukee isn't going to be a good club in 2015-16. So there's no point to keeping Linda. Beyond that, he's a FA, and it would be foolish to sign him to any kind of extension (not that anyone is suggesting that). Sell him while his value is high. He's healthy, hitting for power, hitting both lefties and righties, playing the field on a regular basis - couldn't ask for much more. If this club in playoff contention you keep the guy - but it's not - and won't be anytime soon. Deal Lind as soon as you can get a fair return.
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Heyman's new article has quotes from Melvin saying that he is pretty much open to anything, but trading Lucroy and Segura would be the most difficult, with Lucroy likely the most 'untouchable' of any player on the team. "Those are two tough positions to fill," Melvin said. "I guess you have to be open to everything. But you'd have to be overwhelmed." The big news would be making Gomez available, as he's a premium talent. With all the pitching injuries, Lohse would have some interest, despite his rough start. Garza would be a tough sell due to his large contract and diminished performance. The usual suspects (Broxton, K-Rod, Parra) would probably find trade partners. One other interesting note was a comment about Scooter - it looks like the Angels inquired about him this past off season. I suspect it happened after we acquired Sardinas - perhaps the Angels thought he would become our 2B, thus making Scooter available. But that's just a guess. I hope Melvin keeps an open mind regarding Lucroy and Segura. It doesn't hurt to listen to offers. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25177627/inside-baseball-trade-possibilities-for-likely-seller-brewers-plus-more-mlb-news
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Lind came to Milwaukee with several question marks - bad back, questionable defense, platoon issues, declining power, erratic performance, plus he's at an age (31) where a decline wouldn't be a shock. Still, it was pretty amazing that the best thing Toronto could get was Marco Estrada. I think Lind was seen mostly as a DH by teams. To top it off, was probably seen as an erratic DH-only player. Many teams have been going away from DH-only type players. They value flexibility. These kinds of players just aren't that appealing to many clubs. I also think his health issues over the last few years turn people off. Guys that have lingering health problems scare off clubs. Teams want reliability - the more you can predict, the better they like it. To constantly wonder if a player is going to be available is not what a club wants. It's all lucky for us. As someone pointed out, this is the kind of move that can really pay off for a smaller market club. Find decent players that for, whatever reason, a club doesn't want.
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Ryan Braun - Worst Contract in Franchise History?
Matt Breen replied to JJHardy7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I read this a couple of days ago - good stuff. There is some hope in what he writes. A lot is about Braun getting himself out of the bad habits he has developed. I don't think many people believe he's going to suddenly be a 1.000 OPS guy again - but he can still be a good hitter if he adjusts, cleans up some bad habits and gets a little more lucky. -
No. Pirates have averaged 91 wins the past two years. Brewers have averaged 78. Pirates starting lineup is in their prime, ranging from ages 23-29. Brewers have three starters past 30. The Pirates have 5 players in the top 100 prospects (according to BA), with three in the top 50. Brewers have two - both in the 90s. These teams are so different - even if they are both struggling right now. Pirates are built to win now and in the near future. The Brewers are older, have not been as successful, and have much less top tier talent in the minors to help in the near future.
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If the Brewers dealt Gomez, Luc and maybe even Segura, 2017 is when things could get interesting for Milwaukee. You have, potentially, Arcia, Taylor and Coulter (pushing him a little, but he's looking more and more like he can take it) ready. The pitching staff gets to pick from Wagner, Cravy, Jungmann, Thornburg, Brooks Hall, Strong, Knebel, Goforth, Hellweg, Ariel Pena - to name a few. Add in 4-6 decent prospects you get in trading Gomez, Segura and Lucroy, and it becomes an very young, but interesting team. Not sure if they are good, but they are interesting - and marketable, much like the days of Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Weeks and Hart. The club would have something exciting to promote. And if you shed your big salaries, you can start adding in some strategic free agent signings if needed. And you can potentially add more international players with the extra money. The keys are: - A decent number of prospects with high upsides - Lots of other prospects to potentially find the diamond in the rough, and fill fringe roles (relievers, backups, depth at AAA, etc.) - Financial flexibility to allow the team to make moves as needed Again, there's no promise this team is that good. But the idea is to build a strong base that can consistently refilled with top-notch talent.
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This is true if we actually do a rebuild like the Cubs or Astros. As Baldkin noted above, Melvin uses 'retool' - implying we can't afford to 'rebuild'. That scares me. It likely means trying to straddle the line between rebuilding and contending. Some people think we can do this at this stage, but I think it's just a recipe for continued mediocrity.
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I just read this interview with Mark A, and he said he is open to rebuild - if that's what it takes. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/mark-attanasio-says-rebuilding-brewers-is-not-out-of-the-picture-b99495169z1-302703111.html At least he's acknowledging that all options are on the table. Also, Attanasio isn't really saying much about Melvin's future. The article alludes to a report that Dougie is in line to be transitioned to president of baseball operations - while a new GM is hired. One thing nice about a new GM is that person isn't beholden to the existing players and plan - a great time to do a rebuild - much like what Ludlow did in Houston.
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Jonathan Lucroy Trade Challenge
Matt Breen replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I badly want to load up on prospects, but as you point out, there are no guarantees. Even top guys crash and burn. You could get David Price or someone like Ian Stewart, Delmon Young, Andy Marte or Joba Chamberlain. For 2.5 years of Luc, a team could easily land 12-13 WAR. Plus they could extend him to add to that (or perhaps get a draft pick if he walks). The other thing is that a team that gets Luc gets that value now. A prospect might still be in the minors, and even when they arrive, they often take time to develop. Luc gives a team immediate value. No matter who we offer, there will still be players who a team won't part with. Some of that is that the team really values the player, some of that is the team doesn't need Luc at this time. Or a combination of the two. The Phillies aren't going to give up Aaron Nola in a trade package for Luc because they are in rebuild mode. I'd be surprised is the Dodgers gave up Urias with their rotation issues. I doubt Houston gives up Correa due to the way the GM has been operating (not to mention his talent). -
Prospects being prospects, it's no guarantee that anyone we trade for will equal the contributions of Luc or Gomez. The big issue is the time frame we control Lucroy and Gomez - through 2017 and 2016, respectively. Rebuilding, whether done gradually or quickly, means this team probably isn't very good for a few years. Thus we waste the five years of control we have on these players while they are on losing teams. That's why we should deal them this season - assuming you can get good value. Fangraphs lays out the case for trading Luc - saying most any prospect in baseball could likely be had for him. While that's an exaggeration (after all, some teams are in the same boat as us - they aren't contending for a few years, so why would they trade their prospects), the idea of a Correa or Urias is pretty enticing. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-trading-jonathan-lucroy/
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I find it kind of shocking they couldn't get anything for the guy. Not even a couple of million dollars in salary relief - nothing. That's pretty amazing.
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It was weird hearing Craig talk about Hector, Ryan and Michael. I noticed the players are calling Counsell 'Counse'.
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Marlins cut Jarrad Saltalamacchia today, eating roughly $15M. Kind of shocking to see him go down hill so quickly - barely a year into the contract. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12825309/miami-marlins-release-jarrod-saltalamacchia
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What will do without all the nicknames ending in 'y'? Gomey. Seggy. Brauny. Rammy. I'm sure there's more.
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Jonathan Lucroy Trade Challenge
Matt Breen replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Correa for Luc would be great. Correa looks like he's going to be awesome. Every year he has improved his slugging, batting average, SBs. He's killing AA ball - 1.160 OPS. -
I'm pretty sure he's a last option in the OF. Herrera is now the 5th OF. His versatility may keep him employed in the Bigs for a while.
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I think Lohse is destined to be a pitching coach really quickly after he retires. I like the things I hear about him.
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Jonathan Lucroy Trade Challenge
Matt Breen replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This was spot on. I love Luc, but trading him makes more sense than keeping him. -
The "between the lines" on that is that the team may be willing to trade Gomez. From a "this team needs a complete rebuild" mindset, trading Lucroy would make sense, but they do still want to sell some tickets and Lucroy is the "face of the franchise." Plus, with his "this team needs a kick in the butt" comment, I could see him becoming the team leader under Counsell, especially if some other big personalities (Gomez) are not around. And there is the "veteran catcher helping a young pitching staff" thing. Also, the club doesn't really have a long term replacement for Luc. You could use Maldonado, but he's really been erratic as a hitter. No one else in the system profiles as a stud catcher at this time. I could easily see the team extending Luc for a few more years - like you said, have him be the team leader, mentor the young guys, etc. Still, he would fetch a huge return in a trade. If the team made some moves and went into a rebuild, you hate to waste Luc's prime years in a rebuilding phase.
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I've said this in many threads here and on other Brewer forums - I have no clue why RR wasn't fired after that collapse last season. I can't think of many other clubs who would have brought Ron back for another season after that disaster. This was an interesting article, and yes, after reading it, you wonder why the club just didn't make a change after last year. When a baseball person says things like 'There's a lot of quite on that team" - there's something wrong (and this was last year - not now). Ron's style just didn't play out. Maybe it worked okay when you had some people in the clubhouse keeping guys in line and kicking butts when needed, but that just didn't appear to be happening. It's nothing against the veteran players - guys can lead in different ways. But the manager needs to be a leader when there's a vacuum. He needs to adapt. The article basically says he never changed during his time. Oh well, RRR is gone. Time to move on.
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Source?? Buster Olney "The Brewers have made clear to other teams assessing possible trade options: They are not willing to deal catcher Jonathan Lucroy"
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K-Rod, Cotts, Garza, Lohse, A-Ram - maybe I'm missing someone. But that's about $44M. On a payroll of about $105M, that's about 40% of our payroll. Maybe it's not out of line with other clubs - but it's a pretty big chunk.
