sbrylski

Guys I'd like to see go: Parra Sarfate Hendrickson Braun Rottino

Hall verse RHP: .299 OBP / .827 OPS I have no problem with him being lower in the order. As for Gwynn, hmmm. Rather see Hart in LF and Gross in CF. I'm guessing Yost is going for range in CF? Otherwise how did Gwynn pass up Hart on the pecking order?

If it was me I might try selling a 1 yr deal with an expensive option or a 2 yr. deal. That'd be fine. I haven't written any thoughts about the pitchers, but I am not comfortable going into next season with Jackson/Eveland/Villanueva as a 1st option in the starting rotation. I think if we lose Ohka, we will need to sign a free agent starting pitcher, and it will be one that likely isn't any better than Ohka was in the first place. I think we will know more about Ohka and his injury by the end of the year and before we would make him an offer.

Yes, any team with Kapler on it isn't going to be good. So you think the Red Sox are a fluke or something?

Why? The last time he played full time, he put up a .701 OPS. Whatever he had when he came up, he lost. I have to believe we could do better than Kapler for less than 2 mil per. Yeah, $2 mil per might be a bit much. But consider this: He is hitting .271 / .327 / .458 right now, but in just 48 AB's. His career line is .271 / .330 / .422 , which is also decent, though in 2004 and 2005 his OPS was .700 and .632 respectively. This was mainly due to his awful RHP splits. Against LHP he posted a .833 and .877 respectively, and that is the arm he would get most of his AB's against in my plan. If Nixon's out a while, Kapler should get more playing time and we should get a good idea of whether or not he's returned to form against RHP as well (This year he suddenly has a 1.061 OPS vs RHP). He does play solid defense though, and when I saw that he played for Melvin in Texas I thought he'd be a good fit. I still like him on my roster, but you are probably right in thinking that he can be had for a bit less than $2 mil per.

My Plan Catchers Damian Miller is getting pretty old and we are already seeing a decline in his production. I think we pick up Damian's option, as I think he has at least one more solid year left in him. Pick up option on C Damian Miller (1 year / $3.75 million) To help keep Miller healthy and productive, I will go out and find him another catcher to share time with. This new catcher will also take over for Miller after 2007 and serve as a stop-gap until Salome or another option is available. Looking at FA-to-be, I select Javier Valentin. He is relatively young, and has shown some pretty good flashes at the plate. He also has a plus arm, gunning down over 40% of runners, IIRC. Other options would include Greg Zaun, Rod Barajas, and Bengie Molina. Sign FA C Javier Valentin (3 years / $7.5 million) Mike Rivera goes back to AAA and would be an excellent option to call up in case of injury. If Rivera continues to preform well at the plate, he could also be considered as an in-house option to take over after 2007, or continue his role as backup catcher and a new starter is aquired after the 2007 season. I'm not sure Rivera can continue to bat as well as he has been, and I also have a concern with his arm behind the plate (14 SB / 1 CS - 7%). EDIT: Rivera's production has tailed off a bit, though is still respectable. His SB/CS percentage also balanced out alittle bit, as it now stands at 19%. I still think it would be beneficial to sign a FA catcher. Miller could completely bomb at any minute, and Rivera isn't anything more than a decent backup. I still sign Javier Valentin, who has had a great August. Against RHP, he has a line of .291 / .325 / .494 for the season while Miller has bat better verse LHP throughout his career. He has a .868 OPS split this year. Infield Almost no moves have to be made in the infield, especially if Koskie is able to return from his injury. Hall and Koskie make great platoon partners at 3B, but Hall deserves to play everyday, so he will start against RHP at SS. Hardy gets starts at SS verse LHP, while Hall is at third and Koskie is on the bench, but he has to earn his way back into an everyday starting spot. Fielder and Weeks anchor the right side of the infield. For my last infield spot, I resign Cirillo. He can fill in at 3B, 2B, or 1B, and has excelled in his backup role. I think he has one more year in him. Resign IF Jeff Cirillo (1 year / $900 k) If for some reason Koskie cannot return or if Cirillo retires, then I would make Graffanino my top option as a backup infielder to resign. EDIT: First off, I am beginning to doubt that Koskie will be returning next year, though I'm still going to assume that he does come back. Also, if he's not, it might not be possible to resign Graffanino due to another team giving him a for sure starters role. In that case, Rottino stays on the big league team as the 5th infielder. As Hardy hopefully re-establishes himself as an everyday player, he can get more time at SS. Against RHP, Hall can shift out to CF and Gross to LF, pushing Mench out of the lineup. Also, we should buy out Hall's arby years. Sign UTIL Bill Hall (3 years / $15 million) Outfield We should shop Jenkins around. I have been a big supporter of Jenkins in the past, but now it appears he has begun to decline. He is also only a part time player, and we have plenty of left handed outfield bats. I don't have high hopes for the return, but I feel we can aquire a good young reliever without having to pay for any of Jenkins salary. I figured one team that would have an interest in a corner outfielder would be the Giants, with both Bonds and Alou possibly on their way out. A pitcher from their team that I targeted was Jack Taschner. He's a lefty who pitched great in 24 appearences for the Giants last year (1.59 ERA / 1.24 WHIP), but struggled pretty bad in just 4.1 innings to start this year. He was optioned back down and has pitched very well in AAA. He's also from Milwaukee, but not that young anymore. He will be 28 next season. The goal of this trade is to aquire the best relief pitcher that we can for Jenkins, and one who will hopefully be in the teams plans for the next couple of years. Hopefully we can get someone more established than Taschner, but I will set the bar low. Trade OF Geoff Jenkins to San Fransisco for RP Jack Taschner Next, I would call around to see what it would take to bring in a stud CFer. In particular: David DeJesus, Carl Crawford, and Andruw Jones. I fully expect to get shot down on all my offers, as I will be unwilling to part with Gallardo, and Braun in my talks with Atlanta. I won't offer as much for Jones because he is expensive and wouldn't be with the team after next year. So plan B in CF would be to platoon Gross and Clark. By batting Gross against RHP, and Clark against LHP, using this years stats we would be getting .887 OPS points out of the position, which is very good. That gives us the starting OF of Mench - Gross/Clark - Hart. In house options for the 5th OFer would be Tony Gwynn Jr. and Laynce Nix. Unfortunately, they are both left handed batters and would likely be very bad options against LHP. When we are facing a LHP, Clark is starting in CF, so our 4th OFer is Gabe Gross. Gross is 0-15 against lefties this year, so he is also a bad option. For this reason, I feel we should look outside the organization for a backup corner OFer. As I was scouring some FA-to-be lists, I came across a seemingly obvious choice: Gabe Kapler. He is a right handed batter who hits both lefties and righties equally well. He is a career .271 / .330 / .422 hitter, which profiles into a very good backup. He has above average range and an above average arm, and was with Melvin in Texas. Sign FA OF Gabe Kapler (2 years / $4 million) Tony Gwynn Jr. and Laynce Nix will remain in AAA. Gwynn could use some more time developing, and I need to see more out of Nix before I give him a big league spot. EDIT: I've changed my mind about signing a backup outfielder in free agency hence the gray font. I think an outfield of Mench, Gross, Hart, Clark and Gwynn/Nix would be fine, especially if Hall starts to get time in CF. If we did though, a better target might be Jose Cruz Jr., who has put up some great OPS numbers against LHP over the last 4 years - .924, .951, .829, .924. I also want to say that a trade for Andruw Jones should probably be explored. I still expect him to be priced a bit higher than I would like to pay, but if he can be had for a reasonable deal without giving up Gallardo, Inman or Braun, he would fit in very well with my long term plan. Plugging him into CF would push Gross over to RF, and keep Mench on the bench more often. He would be a great bat to plug into the middle of our lineup. I don't expect us to resign him, but in 2008 Braun would come up to play 3B and Hall could be shifted to CF full time. Jones would be the best "stop-gap" ever, but I still wouldn't give up very much to aquire a stop-gap no matter how good he is. It would be a great way to boost the offense and energize the team however. Even though I would like to aquire him, I do think his bat is overrated a bit. It is very good for a CF, but a career OBP of .343 and OPS of .846 is nothing stellar. Pat Burrell is another potential trade target, though I am very high on Gross and Hart. Burrell is ripped on by the media but management may still want to keep him around and he does have a no-trade clause that would have to be waived. Starting Pitchers Sheets in back, as is Bush. We might as well buy out Capuano now. Davis goes to arbitration, and next year is likely his last as a Brewer. Previously, I wanted to resign Ohka, but with concerns over his health and recent preformance, it might be better to let him walk. Sign SP Chris Capuano (3 years / $16 mill[/i] I am not comfortable with simply handing Doug Davis a job next year and relying on a youngster in the rotation. So in an effort to create more competition in the rotation and to add more depth, I would go after a free agent pitcher comparable to Ohka. Personally, I like Vincente Padilla. His 4.27 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this year are pretty respectable in a hitters park. He would be a good bet to give us an ERA anywhere from 4.00 to 4.50 next year, and he has potential to do even better. Sign FA SP Vincente Padilla (3 years / $16 million) Now we have a rotation of Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Padilla, and one of Davis, Villanueva, Eveland and Jackson. We are deep and well protected from injury. With what happened this year, we should all know that you can never have enough depth. Relief Pitchers Picking up Cordero's option is a must. Pick up option on RP Fransisco Cordero (1 year / $5 million) Wise, Capellan and Turnbow all return. We go to arbitration with Shouse. One more spot is taken up by the 6th starter, likely Davis or Villanueva. That leaves one spot. I think we need to go out and sign an arm. Someone to really solidify the bullpen. The lefty Jamie Walker has had an ERA in the threes or lower for the last five years, including a 1.93 ERA this year. He will be 35 next year. It might cost a bit to get him, but he would really solidify the pen into one of the best in the NL. Sign FA RP Jamie Walker (3 years / $8 million) If the market goes high for Walker, there are some other options. Signing Walker puts guys like Taschner, Sarfate and Spurling on the outside looking in, though they would have a chance to win a job in ST. Summary Trade Geoff Jenkins to San Fransisco for RP Jack Taschner Sign FA C Javier Valentin (3 years / $7.5 million) Sign FA SP Vincente Padilla (3 years / $18 mil) Sign FA RP Jamie Walker (3 years / $8 million) Resign Jeff Cirillo (1 year / $900 k) Pick up option on Fransisco Cordero ($5 million) Pick up option on Damian Miller ($3.75 million) Buyout Arbitration for Capuano (3 years / $16 million) Buyout Arbitration for Hall (3 years / $15 million) Arbitration for Davis (~$4,000,000) Arbitration for Shouse (~$1,000,000) Arbitration for Mench (~$3,000,000) ------ ROSTER ------ Starting Pitchers Catchers ----------------- -------- 1. Ben Sheets $10,000,000 Damian Miller $ 3,750,000 2. Chris Capuano $ 4,000,000* Javier Valentin $ 2,000,000* 4. Vincente Padilla $ 5,500,000* 3. Doug Davis $ 4,000,000* Infielders 5. Dave Bush $ 352,000 ---------- Prince Fielder $ 329,000 Relief Pitchers Rickie Weeks $ 500,000 --------------- Bill Hall $ 3,500,000* LR Carlos Villanueva $ 327,000 Corey Koskie $ 2,000,000 MR Jamie Walker $ 2,500,000* J.J. Hardy $ 355,000 MR Matt Wise $ 1,000,000 Jeff Cirillo $ 900,000* MR Jose Capellan $ 350,000 SU Derrick Turnbow $ 2,300,000 Outfielders SU Brian Shouse $ 1,000,000* ----------- CL Fransisco Cordero $ 5,000,000 Kevin Mench $ 3,000,000* Brady Clark $ 3,800,000 ----------- Gabe Gross $ 335,000 Pitching Payroll $36,329,000 Corey Hart $ 329,000 Tony Gwynn $ 327,000 ----------- Positional Payroll $21,125,000 ---------------------------------- Total Payroll $57,454,000 ---------------------------------- Depth Charts Lineups ------------ ------- POS 1 2 3 --- ------- ------- ------- C Miller Valentin 1. 2B Weeks - R 1B Fielder Valentin Cirillo 2. CF Gross - L 2B Weeks Hall Cirillo 3. 1B Fielder - L vs RHP 3B Koskie Hall Cirillo 4. SS Hall - R SS Hall Hardy 5. RF Hart - R LF Mench Gross 6. 3B Koskie - L CF Gross Clark Hall 7. LF Mench - R RF Hart Gross 8. C Miller - R POS 1 2 3 --- ------- ------- ------- C Miller Valentin 1. 2B Weeks - R 1B Fielder Valentin Cirillo 2. CF Clark - R 2B Weeks Hall Cirillo 3. 1B Fielder - L vs LHP 3B Hall Cirillo Koskie 4. 3B Hall - R SS Hardy Hall 5. LF Mench - R LF Mench Gross 6. RF Hart - R CF Clark Hall Gwynn 7. SS Hardy - R RF Hart Gross 8. C Miller - R

Not to rip you plan apart, but I'd rather resign Ohka to that deal who is pretty comparable to Westbrook, rather than give up Capellan and Eveland. I also don't think your Crawford trade is going to go through. Tampa usually asks for the sky (i.e. Weeks) and will probably be less willing to trade a young established star if they keep having problems with their top prospects. Also, that bullpen isn't improved at all.

Why is Mench batting cleanup verse a RHP? And Hall is lower because his RHP splits are pretty average, its his LHP splits that are awesome.

I suppose it would depend on how much it would take. Out of Rogers, Gallardo, Villenueva, Jackson, and Inman, I would definately be willing to give up one of those guys. As evidenced by every last one of our top pitching projects back until Sheets, the chance that any of these guys making a huge impact is somewhat low. I think that's all the more reason to keep them. We are going to need good pitching for sure in 2008, and if the sucess rate for pitchers is low, the more we have the better. I would also make Gallardo untouchable. I think he has recently passed the point where a top pitching prospect would flame out. I think there is a good chance he is helping the big league by sometime next year. I would also be more willing if we dealt Jenkins and/or Clark for prospects.

Okay, I'll agree with the Cruz comment, but then I suppose I don't think our system is good enough to give up a substantial haul and come out okay.

I know some would be appalled at making that trade Like me. With Cruz gone, I think our system seems suddenly average. I definatley don't want to weaken it more, especially the pitching. Again, take a look at our CF OPS with a Clark/Gross platoon - .887 Jones might be an upgrade, but a whole lot, and at a much higher cost (money and prospects)

When looking where to add a position player, look at the OPS by position (this years stats and without Jenkins): C - Miller (.740) - 1B - Fielder (.858 ) + 2B - Weeks (.766) + 3B - Koskie/Hall (.969) SS - Hall/Hardy (.825) LF - Hart (.???) CF - Gross/Clark (.887) RF - Mench (.797) Clark is underrated, and when platooned with Gross, they make a pretty good combo. The two also are one of our only good OBP spots. What would be even better would be a Gross/Mench platoon in RF. Then we could add a CF. We are actually pretty flexible to aquire an stud OFer, but I'd like to hear your idea on how we trade an average OF (either Jenkins or Mench) for a stud one. I think we'll end up sitting on what we have. We will listen to offers for Mench in the offseason, and probably shop Jenkins around, but nothing great is going to come unless we add a stud prospect. Maybe Jenkins for a reliever. EDIT 2: Actually, since I call the shots, I will trade Jenkins. See my edited roster above. If I could pick one, I'll take a SP over a stud OF. EDIT 1: Here's a question: If you are of the opinion that Jenkins should be at least shopped in the offseason, what is the minimum you would trade him for?

Capuano to Arby Davis to Arby Hall to Arby Mench to Arby Ohka Resigned - 3 years / $17 mil Shouse Resigned - 1 year / $1 mil Cirillo Resigned - 1 year / $1 mil Valentin Signed - 3 years / $6.5 mil Jenkins (plus?) to Detroit for Fernando Rodney and Craig Monroe (Didn't have this at first, but removing Jenkins salary really, really helped. If we keep him, we have to sign a quality bullpen arm to make the pen competitive. Keeping Jenkins and signing a reliever would add $10 million to payroll.) Roster Starting Pitchers Ben Sheets $10,000,000 Chris Capuano $ 4,000,000* Doug Davis $ 4,500,000* Tomo Ohka $ 5,000,000* Dave Bush $ 352,000 Relief Pitchers Dana Eveland $ 350,000 Jose Capellan $ 350,000 Fransisco Cordero $ 5,000,000 Derrick Turnbow $ 2,300,000 Matt Wise $ 1,000,000 Brian Shouse $ 1,000,000* Fernando Rodney $ 385,000* Catchers Damian Miller $ 3,750,000 Javier Valentin $ 2,000,000* Infielders Prince Fielder $ 329,000 Rickie Weeks $ 500,000 Bill Hall $ 3,000,000* Corey Koskie $ 2,000,000 J.J. Hardy $ 355,000 Jeff Cirillo $ 1,000,000* Outfielders Kevin Mench $ 3,000,000* Corey Hart $ 329,000 Gabe Gross $ 335,000 Brady Clark $ 3,800,000 Craig Monroe $ 3,000,000 Total Payroll - $57,630,000 Depth Charts vs RHP POS 1 2 3 --- ------- ------- ------- C Miller Valentin 1B Fielder Valentin Cirillo 2B Weeks Hall Cirillo 3B Koskie Hall Cirillo SS Hall Hardy LF Hart Monroe CF Gross Clark Hall RF Mench Monroe vs LHP POS 1 2 3 --- ------- ------- ------- C Miller Valentin 1B Fielder Valentin Cirillo 2B Weeks Hall Cirillo 3B Hall Cirillo Koskie SS Hardy Hall LF Hart Monroe Gross CF Clark Hall RF Mench Monroe Gross Lineups vs RHP 1. 2B Weeks - R 2. CF Gross - L 3. SS Hall - R 4. 1B Fielder - L 5. LF Hart - R 6. RF Mench - R 7. C Miller - R 8. 3B Koskie - L vs LHP 1. 2B Weeks - R 2. CF Clark - R 3. 3B Hall - R 4. 1B Fielder - L 5. RF Mench - R 6. LF Hart - R 7. C Miller - R 8. SS Hardy - L If any young starters can break into the rotation, Bush can head to the pen. Bullpen looks much improved. Signed Valentin as a guy who can split time with Miller next year, then take over for the next two while we wait for Salome or another option to come along. Jenkins salary cleared (which, as mentioned above, helped more than I thought). We aquired a cheap, young, quality bullpen arm and a very good backup (yet not a player Yost should confuse an everyday starter with). Still a few bucks to play with. Maybe we can spend more to get a better catcher, or put a few more bucks into our pitching rotation (either a Davis extention, or letting Ohka go and getting better player, though Ohka is probably underrated and it could be a very wise resigning).

So what is it...IF or SP? Please Randa over Boone, if it is an IFer.

Game predictions? MIL 5 8 1 TEX 4 8 0

It should be Hart and Mench to face the lefty, if he gets to the park in time. Mench is a lefty killer, so he should have success in his first game. Weeks - 2B Cirillo - 3B Fielder - 1B Hall - SS Mench - LF Miller - C Hart - RF Clark - CF Those are the 8 I want to see starting anyway, don't care about the order.

I'm going to wait until after this trade deadline to see what I have to work with. Too many possibilities right now. I hope I'm not let down and Lee ends up staying.

Well, that should do it for seeing the Crew in person for another year, unless some miracle brings me to Wisconsin in the next couple of months. How about a Brewers-DBacks playoff series? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Love to see all of the offense today. Is this a fluke, or are we getting back on track after a bad start to July? I hate to say it, but I was hoping we'd struggle a bit more so we can trade away Lee for something that will help us next year. By the looks of it, Hart can sure help us the rest of this year. Deal Brady and Lee for bullpen help and prospects.

2) 3rd base: need a solid guy here who will put up big numbers and be in the middle of the lineup (5 spot-type). Koskie/Hall isn't the answer. Doubt you'll read this, but how are these guys not the 'answer'? 3rd Base - .304 / .381 / .545 / .926 / 17 HR A platoon like that is perfect, it brings out the best in each player.

Is this the new venting thread? Just breath. Calm down. I will agree we have some offensive issues with consistensy and our plate approach. In the NL we are 12th in BA, 12th in OBP, 1st in SO, 3rd in HR, and 4th in SLG. We are swinging way too much for the fences and swing at pitches out of the zone. What's the solution? Adding another bat would help, but that is way easier to say that to do. To get a bat that would actually help us enough to make a few game difference in the standings, possibly like an Andruw Jones who's been a hot topic, would be very expensive and careful thought has to be put into attempting a trade like that. As for me, I'm re-joining the "fire Wynegar" bandwagon I think. See my next post in the Wynegar thread for my reasons why. On to Sharpie. Awful outing today, no doubt, but one start isn't going to mean a whole lot when evaluating his worth to the team. Those earned run numbers posted earlier speak pretty well of him. Doug struggled early, but then found his game and has been pitching well. In his last eight starts prior to today he had six quality starts. For our third best pitcher, that is definatley acceptable IMO. I still feel attempting to extend his contract next offseason is the right way to go, provided it is fairly reasonable.

Sorry, double post. See page 5.

NDOG, I agree. Also, they have Prior going tommorrow. He's struggled so far this season, but his last start wasn't bad. We need to take at least two from the Cubs, and today should be our best chance to get our second.

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Alright....one hit is all we need... RALLY CAPS! LETS GO WEEKS!