colbyjack

Don't change a thing Jim. I know I have given you trouble in the past when no-hitters are creatively mentioned, but I recognize that in no way, shape or form does that mention have some cosmic outcome on the potentially historic event at hand. It's the only thing I'm superstitious about, because I was taught as a young lad that it's the one thing you don't mess with. It reminds me of Kevin Costner in Bull Durham when he told Nuke you don't mess with a winning streak http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

I'm not sure if XM radio archives their programs. I'm not an XM subscriber, so someone else will have to tell you that. Grant Paulsen did mention that he intended to add some of the clips to his website linked above. I'll try to keep an eye open for those. The conversation was more of a broad overview of the draft, so I don't know if anything new was shared for those that have followed this forum consistently. You know me, I could talk about this stuff all day long.

It's hard to say, because really anyone could go in the super-size sandwich round. If you're a candidate to go in the top three to five rounds, you're a candidate to be taken in the supplemental first. And it depends on how he's been pitching lately. UWSP won their game earlier today against Ripon to advance to play this evening against St. Thomas, a game in which they're leading 5-0 in the 5th (Zimmerman has 2 RBI in this game, an RBI groundout and a solo HR serving as the team's DH). If they win this game I'm guessing Zimmerman will be trotted out to the mound for Sunday's contest vs. the winner of tomorrow's St. Thomas-UW Oshkosh contest. Basically, the more opportunities Zimmerman has to prove himself, the better, and if they win the regional tourney they're off to the D3 World Series.

What are the Brewers chances of retaining Haydel, Bryson, and Robinson? I think they're pretty high, just because the Brewers have always signed the DFEs they have wanted to in the past. Some signability issues come into play, such as Tim Smith wanting big money to forego ASU a year ago, but the team in particular knew how good Robinson and Haydel could be, which is why they were both day 1 picks a year ago (and which is why they convinced both of them to take the JC/DFE route). And Toby's absolutely right, none of these players approach Parra status, but I always point out that Parra was a once in a lifetime situation of a guy throwing in the mid-80s that suddenly was touching the mid-90s. However, all three guys have enjoyed a big jump, and Parra's standing in 2002 shouldn't diminish that jump, a jump the Brewers were basically hoping they would make (the entire premise of the DFE process).

I am scheduled to be on the radio tomorrow morning (8:05 CST), speaking with Grant Paulsen of XM Radio. Here's a link to Grant's site: www.grantpaulsen.com/ I think XM Radio does stream their broadcasts online, but you have to be an XM subscriber to listen. We'll be talking about draft prospects for the most part, a little about the Brewers and a little about minor league prospects. Grant mentioned that he will probably put clips of the conversation on his site for all to enjoy. Tune in tomorrow and enjoy the soothing voice of colbyjack http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

Every player has scouts that love them and scouts that hate them. I remember a few people telling me that Prince Fielder had some serious holes in his swing, yet the Brewers scouting department felt he was the best pure hitter available in the 2002 draft. That move seemed to pay off for them in a major way. Of course Fielder had other things working against him (his body type/conditioning), but it does show you that every scout and every scouting department has completely different opinions on players. I guess we'll find out. As I said before, even if Heyward does fall, whoever ends up getting him (even if it is UCLA) is getting one heck of a player. Another point that I meant to bring up before is that players can easily get out of whack from one season to the next. If Heyward truly is disappointing this year, I'm guessing he's not swinging the same way he was last summer and fall. The same thing happened to Michael Burgess, who apparently has tinkered with his stance, is getting way too far out in front of balls, and isn't showing the same power, or overall hitting ability, that he did nine months ago. The timing is bad of course, because it has caused his stock to drop, but if the right team takes him and can figure out to put him back on the right track, people will wonder why and how he fell as far as he did. And that is a huge part of a scout's job. If the crosschecker/scout in question didn't see Heyward last summer/fall (and I don't see how they couldn't have), he may not have a good point of reference. If that scout saw the same thing from Heyward last summer/fall that he's seeing now, I will have to agree to disagree with the assessment.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to get to see Jordan Zimmerman pitch this spring. I was prepared to see him play in late March/early April, but the elements caused several UW Stevens Point series to be re-scheduled to early week contests. However, a Pointers game played in early to mid-April against UW Whitewater was available on TV, and I got a chance to see Zimmerman, who I also missed last summer in the Northwoods League by one day. It was snowing when the game started, and Zimmerman came out firing mostly fastballs. I obviously didn't have access to a radar gun, so I can't comment on how hard he was throwing, but based on reports I have heard from people that have seen him pitch this spring, he has been consistently in the low-90s touching 95 on occasion. His fastball command was impressive, and the pitch had some nice darting and diving movement to it. In later innings it started to straighten out more, and batters started to wait back on it better especially since his breaking ball isn't as sharp as it could be. He has two different breaking balls. One looks as though it is trying to be a curve, but is rather slurvy, and kind of looks like a get me over pitch. The other looks more like a true slider, and has good promise but needs to be tightened up (and for all I know it has, since it was a cold day). His breaking balls did continue to look better one after the other, but there were times that he tried to string too many of them in a row, and again batters would react to this and get good swings on the ball. His delivery is his best attribute IMO. No wasted movement, he repeats it extremely well, and it is so silky smooth. One of those deliveries in which it looks like he's play catch. His body type and delivery reminded me a lot of Tim Hudson, and even Dave Bush, with an athletic build, high waist, yet not an overly large or imposing frame. He also induced a ton of ground balls, which I always like seeing, as he did a good job of keeping the ball down in the zone and the natural movement on his fastball helps him with this as well. I'd love to see how he is throwing now with the warmer weather in the area, and he pitched 8 innings the other day in the D3 playoffs, striking out 11 with no walks against St. Scholastica. Stevens Point will play in an elimination game today at noon vs. Ripon after losing on Thursday to St. Olaf. If they win the noon game, they will play St. Thomas at 7 pm tonight, and if they win that game they will play another game on Sunday, of which I'm guessing Zimmerman may be asked to take the mound again after three days rest. The games are being played in Wisconsin Rapids if anyone is interested.

Thanks a lot for chiming in Hidekifan.

While this years crop is better than most, these guys are still only considered to be roughly 5th round caliber guys, which isn't that expensive. The Brewers sign numerous DFEs every year, and that hasn't effected drafts that did include 2nd rounders. Haydel could be a supplemental first rounder, which could mean upper six figures. Bryson and Robinson could go in the third to fourth rounds, which could mean an additional million dollar between the two of them. Its not crazy to think that the three of them combined would get roughly $1.5 M, which is a hefty chunk of change.

Anderson's numbers so far this year, not too shabby... www.minorleaguebaseball.c...pid=474463

The hairs on the back of my neck were standing up for that one. Radman's hit was through the SS's legs with the IF drawn in, which tells you how hard he hit the ball. A thing of beauty. It's nice to know we have another option to pitch for us as well, especially since brewerfanMatt won't be able to play next week (reminder to Jamie, neither will razzor). The infield defense continued to look good, and the Matt's seem to be interchangeable between P and SS. If Valpo pitches again next week, with Razzor and bfMatt out, we should probably figure out who is going to play SS and 3B. I know Kenny has looked good at 3B in practice, as Tony looked good at 1B, and I know Robin can pick it a little bit in the IF as well.

I know this has been discussed at length, but this is the first time I've seen it in a mock draft. If Weiters is still on the board how can the Brewers possibly pass on him, especially without having a second round pick? There is a thread dedicated to this, but just because the Brewers don't have a second round pick doesn't mean they will pony up the dough to sign someone that falls like Wieters. Keep in mind that they have used that "extra" money other ways in the past, such as signing DFEs or international players such as Rolando Pascual, Wily Peralta and Yohannis Perez. Since the Brewers DFE class has some big names this year, they could very well be spending an additional $1-2 million, if not more, to get those players signed. And, the Brewers have stuck to the pre-determined slot values since Jack Z. has been the team's scouting director. I don't expect that to change anytime soon, as much as I would like to see Wieters in the system. As for Heyward, I think that scout caught Heyward on a bad day. I got to see plenty of clips on the guy at the Aflac game and last year's PG National, and he's about as sound of a hitter as you kind find. Plus, he's a great overall athlete, one I have compared to a left-handed hitting version of Derrek Lee given his overall athleticism (he often draws Fred McGriff comparisons). I do know that there were some reports earlier this spring that he wasn't as impressive taking BP this year, which was the only way scouts could get a feel for him since he wasn't getting anything to hit. However, I have also heard that he has looked much better in private workouts. Could he fall? Sure, anyone can fall, including Wieters as detailed above. If he does whoever lands Heyward is getting one heck of a player.

4. Patrick's earlier comments on who he would choose. Thanks for giving me some props, but I always make it clear that who I would take and who the Brewers would, and will end up taking are two completely different things. I still think Heyward could be on their radar, but his name hasn't been officially linked to the Brewers. Moustakas may sign for slot at 7th overall. $2.25M is a lot of money to turn down, although it wouldn't be the first time if someone did.

Colby if the brewers where to go with a prep pitcher which one out of those two would you prefer. I'll take Parker, as I'm not big (no pun intended) on super-sized pitchers like Aumont. They just have a lot more moving parts for something to go wrong. Parker is a talented overall athlete, who swings the bat pretty well too, and not only has his fastball been consistently in the 95-98 range this spring, but his slider has been absolutely filthy. The arm action is pretty effortless as well, and is a similar prospect to Jeffress (although Parker reportedly commands the strike zone pretty well and could move faster than someone like Jeffress). And I'm with X. It's really a no-brainer for me to take Moustakas, or almost any hitter over any prep pitcher, but reports are growing of Moustakas' bat, who is now being ranked just behind Josh Vitters, with some scouts reportedly preferring Moustakas because he bats left-handed.

Manny Parra's line at AA (since 2004): 12-8, 3.43 ERA, 32 games (all starts), 170.2 IP, 183 H, 166 K, 39 BB He's given up only 4 HR in that span, all during the 2005 season, in which he gave up 111 hits in 91 innings of work (his longest, yet worse season statistically at the AA level). The Brewers need to find a way to bump this young man up to AAA. Of all of the pitching prospects in the system, I would love to know what Manny is throwing stuff-wise more than anyone else.

BA's weekend preview: www.baseballamerica.com/t...63887.html Holy moly. Mills continues to put up silly Nintendo numbers for Lewis-Clark State. I really hope the Brewers have him somewhere on their radar at #7.

I agree that Matt Bush was a bad pick for the Padres, and felt pretty strongly about that when it happened. I wasn't so upset that they went cheap, but they took the wrong player in doing so. It just seemed as though the organization was completely unprepared when the brass mandated that they not spend much money on that first overall pick. Such moves can cripple a franchise, and the Padres farm system may look a lot different had they taken the right player vs. Bush, even if that right player wasn't Drew or Weaver. However, it wasn't just a matter of spending an extra million to make it happen. Here is how their bonuses/contracts broke down: Bush: $3,150,000 bonus, signed the day of the draft Drew: $4,000,000 bonus, MLB contract guaranteed $5.5 million over four years, additional $2M in incentives believed to be easily attainable. That's a $7.5 million investment, and Drew took until the week before the 2005 draft to sign. That money and effort in that process simply cannot be taken lightly. Yes, looking at how Bush has panned at now it's easy to say that the extra $4M + would have been worth it, but what if the Padres had taken either Jeremy Sowers or Homer Bailey with that pick? They would look pretty smart today if they had made that pick while saving a rather large chunk of change. The seventh overall pick is expected to be slotted at $2.25M, not $2.5M. $250,000 between the two projections could mean the difference between signing your fourth round pick. Even a $100,000 when it comes to bonuses can't be taken lightly, as we have to remember that teams typically have a pretty strict budget that they need to adhere to. I always point out that the Tigers somewhat screwed the Brewers a few years ago by taking Scott Moore right after the Brewers took Prince Fielder. Moore signed within a few days of the draft for over slot value, and $100,000 more than what the Brewers were prepared to give Fielder. That meant they had to sign Fielder for $200,000 more than expected, and that year, coupled with the signing of DFE Manny Parra, meant the team lost several of their early picks that they had hoped to sign (although none of them came back to haunt the Brewers). I agree with your assessment that you save money by having productive, young big-leaguers that make the MLB minimum their first three years in the big-leagues, and control their rights for another three years. However, the money again can't be passed aside, as it is a very, very, very big thing to scouting directors. Again, I have no problem with a team like the Padres passing on Weaver and Drew, but they need to make sure they take the right player when they make such a selection, and unfortunately for the Padres that pick looked painfully bad even when it happened.

I caught that story yesterday by Jeff Sackmann, it's a great read, and it reminds me of the debates from about 15 years ago about where the Brewers would have finished in 1992 had they not waited so long to call up Cal Eldred. The production at third base isn't hurting the team yet, but when that lack of production becomes more obvious I hope the team doesn't wait to long to make the right move. Same goes for the pitching staff though with Yo. If there is one guy in the bullpen (Elmer Dessens?) that more often than not proves to be a weak link, I hope the braintrust makes the right move for the best interest of the big-league team's success. Plus, as we've talked about at great length before, it would be nice to see the Brewers groom a starter via the bullpen. EDIT: I'm not too worried about Braun. If the team thought it was really serious I'm guessing they would have placed him on the DL. I suppose that's still possible, making it retroactive to whenever he made his last appearance, although I don't know if there is a corresponding move to make.

I would love for the Brewers to find an affiliate that plays in a more neutral environment, that's for sure, but I'd rather the pitchers not completely lose their confidence in a place like High Desert. Yo may have not been unreal before last season, but BA did have him ranked as the Brewers #4 prospect entering last spring IIRC, and he was pretty dang good at WV the year before. I think Michael, or maybe it was Jim, accurately predicted that Gallardo would be the team's #1 prospect by the end of the 2006 season before the 2006 season, so the unreal talent was definitely there.

It's nice living 2 minutes from the field. Great game everyone. I thought the pitching and defense was outstanding. BrewerfanMatt, what week did you say you weren't going to make it? Week three? We're going to have to figure out who is pitching that game, as you were a strike throwing machine. Nice meeting iluvlamp and having our own team photographer in tomwopat. Thanks to you both for making it out. Brian, sorry you couldn't make it.

They definitely have some extra money to play with, as the Miller instance is a good example. Not only did they pay Inman a little more than slot, but I believe that is also the year they signed Dominicans Pascual and Peralta to something like $750K and $500K bonuses.

Allan Simpson's weekly draft notebook has been posted on PG Crosschecker's homepage, and is free for everyone to enjoy: www.pgcrosschecker.com/dr...51007.aspx He breaks down the top 15 teams and the names most commonly associated with them. Here is his comment on the Brewers: Two prep pitchers amongh the three players mentioned. That will sitr up a storm (again) if the draft actually plays out that way. I will say that prep pitching actually stacks up favorably at the 7th overall spot.

Pioneers3 brings up a great point about how a pitcher is conditioned when throwing such high pitch counts. But yes, the high pitch counts that David Price has accumulated this year has raised a few eyebrows, and is something we've tossed around (I believe in the college resource thread) before. Most MLB pitchers aren't allowed to go that deep into ballgames, and certainly not as frequently as Price has. Phillip Humber is another guy that was allowed to accumulate really high pitch counts in college, and while you can't blame his arm problems on that, it does make you wonder if those arm problems could have been avoided had he been used more conservatively in college.

Nothing there to tear apart RyDogg, you obviously have put a lot thought into this. I have thrown out some ideas as well in the past to help the little guys while trying not to help the rich get richer. However I do want to point out that the Brewers have re-stocked their farm system without any extra picks (actually without their 2nd rounder in 2000, 2005 and this coming year) and without any help in the international free agent market. So, it can be done under the current system. While I have tried to figure out a system that doesn't blatantly help the teams that cry poor, my latest thoughts center around removing draft pick compensation altogether, at least getting rid of the idea that any team loses a draft pick for signing a free agent. Instead, teams would only get compensation picks. And I think those compensation picks should be awarded based on free agents signed by the same team, similar to how the NFL awards compensation picks, and you can use the Elias rankings to help determine what picks a team gets. For instance, if the Yankees were to lose Mike Mussina and sign Johan Santana, they would not gain a compensation pick for losing Mussina. If the Royals were to sign a Type A free agent and lose Type B free agents, they may get a compensation pick after the second round. If a team simply loses a Type A free agent and doesn't sign any Type A or B free agents, then they get a compensation pick after round one and two. A Type B free agent lost gets a compensation pick after round one (assuming the team that loses such a player doesn't sign any other free agents). I think before MLB gets more creative with the compensation picks they will do away with the process completely. We were lucky to see as many changes implemented to the draft with the last CBA as we were.

My guess would be shortly after the draft in June. That's a good call, and I believe that is roughly when both Braun and Gallardo were bumped up a year ago. And remember a year ago we were all wondering the same thing with Gallardo, who was also dominating the FSL (although I'm not sure to the same level Inman is). Inman probably has five starts before the June draft, and he currently has just over 42 innings pitched. Gallardo got bumped up in the 75-80 inning range, and if Inman averages 5-6 innings per outing between now and the draft, which doesn't seem to be a problem for him, he too will be in that 70-80 inning range. And the move could correspond with someone like Manny Parra getting bumped up to AAA. As I noted a week ago, Parra already has roughly 160 innings at the AA level, dating back a few years now, and is doing a much better job this year limiting baserunners. I think he has more than proven his worth at AA, although him being there may have more to do with a lack of a spot to put him at AAA. Between now and early June more than likely there is going to be some kind of pitching transaction that goes down at the upper levels, whether it be due to injury, ineffectiveness or something else. Sidenote: Gamel and Gillespie need to get it going. I know it's not easy to hit in the FSL, but I really didn't expect either one to have this much trouble. Still early? Absolutely, but we're a month in now, and even Cain appears to be finding his stroke.