colbyjack

Hey Todd, my brother has been reading your HOF trial stories and wanted me to pass along his kudos while also adding a couple of suggestions: Richie Ashburn and Vern Stephens.

It's time to kick off Brewerfan.net's 2006 Draft Coverage. We're still building the default 2006 draft information, as the current draft information still defaults to 2005, but here is a link to review Brewerfan.net's top 30 draft-eligible prospects for 2006: www.brewerfan.net/ViewDra...?draftId=4 Once the '06 draft info is the default draft page, you will be able to access the draft order, past year's draft picks, the DFE candidates for next spring, a breakdown of the scouting dep't. and the usual lengthy list of player profiles. Until then, most of that information will be provided here within this thread. This thread will start providing the basics for next year's draft, providing the raw draft order and eventually updating the order as free agents are signed. We will remove the free agents name by name as they are signed or if they aren't offered arbitration (making them ineligible for draft-pick compensation). We will also provide the list of draft and follow candidates for next spring. The DFEs will have their own resource thread starting at hte beginning of next year so people can follow all of the candidates in one easy place. 2005 Draft: Official Draft Pick Thread Official Draft Signings Thread Discussion, Rounds 1-4 Discussion, Rounds 5-9 Discussion, Rounds 10-19 Discussion, Rounds 20-29 Discussion, Rounds 30-50 Other Related Links: Brewerfan.net '05 Draft Recap, '06 Draft Preview Discussion: BA's Draft Report Cards BA: Top-100 prep player commitments Recent 2006 Draft Discussions: Discussion: Early '06 rumblings Top Summer Talent for '06 2006 Player Breakdowns 2006 Raw Draft Order: The raw order is established by taking the reverse order of the standings from the previous seasons. The order does not alternate between leagues anymore. Tie-breakers are awarded to the team that finished with the worse record the previous season. 1. Royals (.346) 2. Rockies (.414) 3. Devil Rays (.414) 4. Pirates (.414) 5. Mariners (.426) 6. Tigers (.438) 7. Dodgers (.438) 8. Reds (.451) 9. Orioles (.457) 10. Giants (.463) 11. Diamondbacks (.475) 12. Rangers (.488) 13. Cubs (.488) 14. Blue Jays (.494) 15. Nationals (.500) 16. Brewers (.500) 17. Padres (.506) 18. Mets (.512) 19. Marlins (.512) 20. Twins (.512) 21. Phillies (.543) 22. Athletics (.543) 23. Astros (.549) 24. Braves (.556) 25. Indians (.574) 26. Angels (.586) 27. Red Sox (.586) 28. Yankees (.586) 29. White Sox (.611) 30. Cardinals (.617) 2005-06 DFE Candidates: The Milwaukee Brewers retain the rights to the following players up until a week before next year's draft. Between the end of their collegiate season and the week before the draft is the window in which a player may sign. To learn more about the DFE process please visit this story: DFE Process 17. Timothy Smith, RF (Midland College, TX) 18. Zack Braddock, LHP (Chipola College, FL) 24. Michael Ramlow, LHP (Owens CC, OH) 25. Taylor Green, 2B (Cypress College, CA) 31. Patrick Murray, 1B (Santa Ana College, CA) 32. Spencer Pennington, LF (Alabama, medical redshirt fifth-year senior) 33. Jorge Core-Fernandez, RHP (Marshalltown CC, IA) 34. Brock Kjeldgaard, RHP (Indians Hills CC, IA) 35. Sebastien Vendette, RHP (Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, OK) 36. Stephen Barnes, RHP (Lake City CC, FL) 37. Christopher Hopkins, CF (Sierra College, CA) 39. Bradley Miller, SS (Cowley College, KS) 41. Jordan Lennerton, 1B (El Paso CC, TX) 42. Chris Copot, C (Lethbridge CC, Alberta, Canada, playing for Prairie Baseball Academy) 43. Kyle Eveland, 2B (College of the Canyons, CA) 44. George Washington, RF (Central Alabama JC) 45. Ulrich Snijders, C (St. Petersburg College, FL) 48. Frederick Lewis, LHP (Daytona Beach CC, FL) 50. Garrett Regan, OF (Lethbridge CC, Alberta, Canada, playing for Prairie Baseball Academy)

Gambling was forbidden by MLB, steroids were not. Actually, that is a misconception. There is a rule that states anything that is illegal in the United States is also forbidden in MLB. So while steroids weren't specifically mentioned as being a banned substance, they were under the umbrella. But I agree with your point that illegal actions never kept people out of hte HOF, such as Molitor, and steroids should be no different (at least up to this time). If MLB wants to make a stipulation that third time steroid offenders are not only banned for life, but banned from the HOF (unless that is already implied), I could see if affecting a player's induction from now on. But not up until this point.

As much as I never liked the guy, and couldn't believe that he was voted to the All-Century team (talk about what have you done for me lately), he deserves to be in the Hall. I agree that he's innocent until proven guilty, but even if proven guilty I'm not sure I would suggest banning from the Hall similar to Pete Rose. There just isn't one way to quantify how much steroids affected what he did. I can see just saying "he cheated" and being done with it, and maybe that is how they progress from now on, and as noted with the original intent of this story, there will likely be several players we have this debate with.

A tip of the cap to Steve Hammond for a very good debut in the AFL. Maybe he should have been there all along. I'm sorry, I can't get overly down on the Brewers for what they have done in the AFL. It's a developmental league, not life or death, much like winter leagues. I think a lot of people want to see the top prospects from each team there, and while I agree guys like Eveland, Hardy and Fielder were bad choices to begin with, focusing on that is taking something away from the success guys like Corey Hart, Alcides Escobar, Vinnie Rottino and even Brian Wolfe are currently having in the AFL. For every closed door there's a window of opportunity, right?

Matyas isn't as good of a positional prospect. His hopes to be drafted high enough rely on his pure stuff. His best season was his sophomore year in high school, as he didn't show the same kind of stuff, or at least success, last year. Scouts are well aware of his arm, but he needs to prove he's consistent while also proving that he can pitch. He could be a productive two-way guy in college, but a lot of players could. His value at the pro level is as a pitcher.

This was changed at the same time in which it was determined that the draft order would be established by the reverse standings from the season before, and would not alternate between leagues. While the 2005 draft was the first year in which this took place, the Rule 5 draft during December, 2004, was the first "draft" in which this rule change took place. As for the waiver wire rules, IIRC, Turnbow was picked up about this time last year, so I'm guessing the changes officially took place with the end of the 2004 season.

Because of Hurricane Wilma, the WWBA World Championship has been postponed to mid-November, the weekend before Thanksgiving: www.perfectgame.org/2005/...orts14.cfm The area itself wasn't hit hard, but the stadium is going to be used as a relief area for those hit hard on the coastal areas. Last year the tournament was moved from Jupiter because of a hurricane (the name escapes me, Andrew?) to Fort Myers, FL.

Thanks for the heads up Stevo. Picking Arkansas over Nebraska and ASU isn't that big of a leap. Many players will pass over superior academic institutions when they have the chance to play in the SEC, as Butler himself admitted in the story provided. The SEC is widely considered the best conference in all of college baseball, and Arkansas has a rising program whose success is based off of pitching. That combo makes it a very appealing destination for any young player. Plus, there are always other things involved such as scholarship money (college baseball programs rarely hand out full scholarships to any one player), how much playing time he was initially promised, how soon he would contribute, etc. On top of that, Arkansas seems to have a thing for Wisconsin prep pitchers. Butler follows former Razorback pitcher Scott Roehl and current Razorback pitcher Daryl Maday. As for his stuff, what I have seen and heard of Butler is that he sits in the 85-87 range. Many project that he will throw harder down the road given his stature, and if he is indeed starting to push 90+ more often lately that is a good sign. He already is a polished pitcher with pretty good secondary offerings and a sound understanding of how to pitch. He is currently playing for the Midwest Blazers who probably are in route to Jupiter, Florida for the WWBA World Championship that begins on Thursday. Dusty Brabender (Oregon, WI, now pitching for the Golden Gophers) really made a name for himself at this event two years ago by pitching extremely well for the Blazers, maybe Butler can follow suit. Hopefully Blazer25 will have some good news to share with us when he returns. And speaking of Wisconsin talent, right now it looks like the '06 class should be better than the '05 class, one of the weakest classes in Wisconsin history that followed one of the strongest ('03 with Cordier, Beranek, Hall, Schweikert, etc.). Butler highlights the group, and Blazer teammate Chris Roberts (IF-Oshkosh West), Fond du Lac teammates Wes Munson (IF, also on the Blazers) and Chad Pierce ©, and Kettle Morraine's Scott Matyas (RHP) highlight the class. Unfortunately, Wisconsin players always seem to drop and end up attending college. The college ranks offer Brandon Hall and Tyler Beranek, both playing for Lake County CC in Florida (Beranek transferred, this is the same team that DFE candidate Stephen Barnes plays for), UIC's Ryan Zink and Maday. I'm not sure of the college talent within Wisconsin.

The WWBA World Championship begins this Thursday, with about 80 teams participating with virtually every scout and college recruiter there. The tournament runs through next Monday. Perfect Game and WWBA's sites (WWBA is the tournament division of Perfect Game) have been posting frequent updates of the tournament, with most of the recent updates focusing on Hurricane Wilma. Baseball America usually covers the event as well, as partners to the event and hosting their own team. I'll be posting stories as they trickle out, and am including a few links of interest here. This is a link to WWBA's tournament coverage, including links to the individual team rosters (if you follow the talent for the '06 draft, check out the Braves' scout team): WWBA World Championship This is a link to Perfect Game's homepage. Be sure to read update #7 if you want to learn about some of the more talent players from the Dominican Republic that will be in attendance (including Joaquin Andujar's son): Perfect Game USA This event often has a player or two make a name for themselves that allows them to vault up the top prospect lists to the top 3-5 players. With virtually every talented baseball player from across the country, Canada, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, there won't be too many prep draftees that didn't participate in this event.

Braun was rated the 27th best college player from the early projection issue (Jan/Feb). Cliff Pennington was the last college player to be listed in the top 30, and he was the 17th best college player, so Braun would have been in the top 50 if they had done an overall list that deep. Several first-rounders were rated between Pennington and Braun on the college list, including Cesar Ramos, Trevor Crowe, Ricky Romero and Jacoby Ellsbury. Kevin Roberts was rated #68 on the list.

His attitude stinks because you don't get a good vibe with him? Having a gut feeling isn't the type of thing you make factual statements off of. You can talk about how you were disappointed with his performance as the season wore on, but making pre-conceived judgements about a player you don't know anything about doesn't sit well with me.

No East Coast bias, as the list is well represented from across the nation (if you're being sarcastic, I'll turn my sarcastic-meter back on). Buck checks in at #11, but I won't have him quite that high (he'll be close). I wasn't too fond of his blowup on the mound during the CWS (I think that's when it was). He clearly and completely lost his composure in a pressure situation, although I still found a way to like Wade Townsend after an even worse incident involving him on the Cape during the summer of 2003. Certainly these lists are far from perfect, which is why I wanted to see just how accurate they were. The names at the very top usually don't move too much, and there are usually four players from each early draft list that fall significantly (although other than Kyle Bakker, not because of talent). And most teams missed the boat on Daric Barton in '03. Later draft lists by BA that year had Ian Stewart very high (top 10 IIRC) and Barton as a potential first-rounder. Max Sapp is this year's version of Daric Barton IMO, and BA currently has him ranked 31st. I'll have him around 15. The dude can hit.

From today's BA Daily Dish: There has been no official reason as to why the Brewers removed first baseman Prince Fielder from the AFL, replacing him with Vinny Rottino. But the consensus among several scouts was that Fielder, who played 39 games in the big leagues as well as the majority of the season at Triple-A Nashville, was worn out. ?He really looked lackadaisical, like he didn?t care,? an AL scout said. ?I saw him swing at three pitches during an at-bat?all breaking balls?and not even come close. He just looked worn down. It wouldn?t surprise me, considering how much he?s played. You can only motivate guys so much and to me, it looked like Mr. Fielder had no interest in being here.?

I've been waiting for the most recent issue of BA for a while, looking forward to their usual early draft sneak preview. This year they added their top 50 prospects, up from the usual 30 they have done in past years. I wanted to go back and gauge just how accurate these early projections are to the picks made on draft day to see just how much the talent stays the same from year to year. I also wanted to see how it changed to their early draft preview rankings which are usually released in Jan/Feb. So, I've tallied up the names from this time in the past three years, the names from the early draft preview in Jan/Feb, and the names as they actually were selected from the first round. 2003 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Rickie Weeks Rickie Weeks Delmon Young 2 Lastings Milledge Delmon Young Rickie Weeks 3 Delmon Young Adam Loewen Kyle Sleeth 4 Kyle Sleeth Kyle Sleeth Tim Stauffer 5 Michael Aubrey Lastings Milledge Chris Lubanski 6 Ryan Harvey Andrew Miller Ryan Harvey 7 Chris Lubanski Jared Hughes Nick Markakis 8 Jeff Allison Brad Sullivan Paul Maholm 9 Kyle Bakker Bobby Brownlie John Danks 10 Tim Stauffer Tim Stauffer Ian Stewart 11 Brad Sullivan Chris Lubanski Michael Aubrey 12 Matt Murton Ryan Harvey Lastings Milledge 13 Jeff Manship Michael Aubrey Aaron Hill 14 Chad Billingsley David Aardsma Ryan Wagner 15 Jared Hughes Jeff Allison Brian Anderson 16 David Aardsma Chad Billingsley Jeff Allison 17 Andrew Miller Landon Powell David Murphy 18 James Houser Jay Sborz Brad Snyder 19 Robert Lane Matt Murton Conor Jackson 20 Matt Brown Ryan Sweeney Chad Cordero 21 Landon Powell James Houser Matt Moses 22 Ryan Sweeney Paul Maholm David Aardsma 23 Carlos Quentin Kyle Bakker Brandon Wood 24 Tony Richie Craig Whitaker Chad Billingsley 25 Paul Maholm Jonathan Fulton Brad Sullivan 26 Aaron Hill Not available Brian Snyder 27 Craig Whitaker Not available Eric Duncan 28 Jonathan Fulton Not available Daric Barton 29 Conor Jackson Not available Carlos Quentin 30 Wes Littleton Not available Mitch Maier 2004 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Jeff Niemann Jeff Niemann Matt Bush 2 Jered Weaver Justin Verlander Justin Verlander 3 Wade Townsend Jered Weaver Phillip Humber 4 Stephen Drew Jeff Larish Jeff Niemann 5 Chris Nelson Nick Adenhart Mark Rogers 6 Nick Adenhart Stephen Drew Jeremy Sowers 7 Matt Bush Matt Bush Homer Bailey 8 Jeremy Sowers Wade Townsend Wade Townsend 9 Justin Verlander Jeremy Sowers Chris Nelson 10 Phillip Humber Greg Golson Thomas Diamond 11 Matt Durkin Phillip Humber Neil Walker 12 Justin Orenduff Homer Bailey Jered Weaver 13 Greg Golson Justin Orenduff Bill Bray 14 Thomas Diamond Chris Lambert Billy Butler 15 Andy Gale Michael Taylor Stephen Drew 16 Homer Bailey Huston Street David Purcey 17 Jeff Larish Micah Owings Scott Elbert 18 Jay Rainville Jay Rainville Josh Fields 19 Micah Owings Chuck Lofgren Chris Lambert 20 Michael Taylor Thomas Diamond Trevor Plouffe 21 Erik Davis Mark Rogers Greg Golson 22 Chris Lambert Andy Gale Glen Perkins 23 Eric Beattie Seth Smith Phillip Hughes 24 Chuck Lofgren Chris Nelson Landon Powell 25 Mark Rogers Phil Hughes Kyle Waldrop 26 Tyler Lumsden Eric Beattie Richie Robnett 27 Eric Patterson Eric Patterson Taylor Tankersly 28 Jeff Frazier Danny Putnam Blake DeWitt 29 Huston Street Scott Elbert Matt Campbell 30 Phil Hughes Kenn Kasparek Eric Hurley 2005 No. Sneak Preview Early Projection Actual 1 Justin Upton Justin Upton Justin Upton 2 Cameron Maybin Cameron Maybin Alex Gordon 3 Alex Gordon Alex Gordon Jeff Clement 4 Jeff Clement Mike Pelfrey Ryan Zimmerman 5 Tyler Green Luke Hochevar Ryan Braun 6 Wade Townsend Tyler Greene Ricky Romero 7 Luke Hochevar Jeff Clement Troy Tulowitzki 8 Mike Pelfrey Wade Townsend Wade Townsend 9 Stephen Head Troy Tulowitzki Mike Pelfrey 10 Troy Tulowitzki Ryan Zimmerman Cameron Maybin 11 John Mayberry, Jr. Stephen Head Andrew McCutchen 12 Mark McCormick John Mayberry, Jr. Jay Bruce 13 Craig Hansen Sean O'Sullivan Brandon Snyder 14 Ryan Zimmerman Mark McCormick Trevor Crowe 15 Ryan Mullins Justin Bristow Lance Broadway 16 Sean O'Sullivan Craig Hansen Chris Volstad 17 Ricky Romero Jordan Danks C.J. Henry 18 Travis Buck Zach Putnam Cesar Carrillo 19 Miers Quigley Taylor Teagarden John Mayberry, Jr. 20 Justin Bristow Travis Buck Mark Pawelek 21 Cliff Pennington Brian Bogusevic Cliff Pennington 22 Chris Volstad Chris Volstad Aaron Thompson 23 Stephen Kahn Andrew McCutchen Jacoby Ellsbury 24 Andrew McCutchen Daniel Carte Brian Bogusevic 25 Brad Clark Brett Jacobson Matt Garza 26 Jordan Danks Austin Jackson Craig Hansen 27 Zach Putnam Brandon Snyder Joey Devine 28 Brad Corley Henry Sanchez Colby Rasmus 29 Brian Bogusevic Cliff Pennington Jacob Marceaux 30 Jed Lowrie David Adams Tyler Greene I apologize for the funky coding. I tried to fix it several times but it didn't work. This is the best I could get it copying & pasting from an Excel file. The columns are somewhat lined up http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Anyway, I bring this up as BA has their own top prospect list out. I don't like including full lists of players from paid publications that offer subscriber services (I don't think this list usually makes it to their web-site), so you're going to have to go out and buy your own copy of BA. I can tell you that Drew Stubbs, not Andrew Miller, is ranked #1, which came as a surprise. I will provide their top 10: Drew Stubbs Andrew Miller Max Scherzer Jordan Walden Daniel Bard Matt Latos Wes Hodges Ian Kennedy Cody Johnson Evan Longoria Texas RHP Kyle McCulloch was ranked #16, although he won't appear that high on my top 30 list, which will be released in the next week or two. bow to the master of code tags. Actually, you just need to paste it into notepad and straighten it out first, then put it in the post. -ja002h

Now I really feel bad for questioning Prince. I hope all goes well with he and his pregnant wife. As for Drew, BA has a nice little Q&A with him available on their homepage: www.baseballamerica.com/t...9drew.html

Trust me, I'm more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. It just seems like a little case of "the boy who cried wolf" to me. And I too remember the story saying "personal reasons" and not "family health problem." Good catch Anders. Best wishes to Prince and his family.

The only reason Lee was so high in VORP was the fact he got near 700 PAs. Counting on that again (even if thats a good thing) isn't smart. The one very good thing Lee has done in his career has been to stay healthy. It's amazing to look at his seasons and see how much he has played over his career. For a guy that has used VORP extensively in many arguments to find a reason that is quite possibly his strongest attribute to discredit his VORP is hard to swallow. I agree that Lee is a league average LF, but a league average LF is still a pretty darn good hitter. I also agree that $8.5 million may be a little steep, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Melvin deal him if the right deal came along, but I'm not going to go out of my way to cut down his accomplishments from this past season.

Some people might feel Prince is just copping out on playing this fall but when somebody leaves for personal reasons I don't believe it's anybody's role to judge him if we aren't in tune to the situation. Especially somebody like Prince who has had some genuinely strong personal situations to deal with. You're absolutely right, but I have to admit, the same thing crossed my mind that crossed BrewCrewIn2004's. If there hadn't been a peep about him not wanting to participate in the league it wouldn't have even crossed my mind, but I guess the series of events from him hiring Scott Boras to trying to get out of playing in the league to this has me a little bit skeptical. But you're right, he has had to deal with quite a bit over the last few years, and whatever the reason is I hope he is able to resolve it.

I know what you're saying EDR. I know there are several people that constantly accuse others of being "anti-Moneyball," which has popped back up on the MLB forum, and Boyd's snide comments seem to be the typical ones that stem from the other side. But if indeed if all teams adopted this methodology then how would teams find the Latin talent? Or high school talent? Basically, if you can't quantify the performance of a player, you avoid them, right?

I'm sure you know how I feel about this EDR, to base all of your decisions solely on statistical evidence is, like you said, a shortsighted way to evaluate players. I believe Jed Lowrie was the highest rated hitter on the same list a year ago, which is ridiculous if you stack him up against Alex Gordon. That's not to say that Matt LaPorta isn't a fine hitter, because he is, and he may just be the best among those eligible for the '06 draft. I enjoy Boyd Nation's work, because it's obvious he does his homework and comes up with some interesting results. And without a doubt, lists are for fans. While I know almost everyone in the game reads Baseball America, I'm sure they don't make their personnel decision based off of how BA ranks players within each system. And actually I warn the same thing when reading BA's work (or anyone's for that matter). When we formulate our own opinions on which players we like and don't like, we usually do our own homework. We all have our own hunches, and there's key words we may react to. When I see people say "this player is good because BA says so" I'm tempted to warn people to fall into such traps. The information that BA produces should be used as a tool for fans just like statistical evidence should be used as a tool for baseball personnel. But back to Boyd's comments, while I do caution myself when reading top prospect lists, especially knowing that BA and most "old-school" scouts put projection as a premium over performance, I can't help but thinking about some top prospect lists that are proven. I ran across the Twins top 10 list last week, and the names on the list (and the subsequent 5 to follow) really stood out to me. They were in order: Michael Cuddyer, Michael Restovich, Cristian Guzman, Luis Riva, Matthew LeCroy, Ryan Mills, Jacque Jones, Doug Meintkiewicz, Corey Koskie, Mike Lincoln, Matt Kinney, Joe Mays, Brent Stentz, AJ Piezynski & Dan Perkins. Brent Stentz and Dan Perkins are the big duds on the list, while everyone else has seen substantial MLB playing time. I didn't look back, but I'm guessing the Twins finished fairly high in the overall organizational rankings that year, and that is one area that at least BA can go back and point to as a basis for their success. Boyd Nation's lists are nice, but where is his proof that these are the lists people should be looking at? If there is historical proof that the players listed typically are the ones that enjoy the most success, wonderful, but then again, there are quite a few names that would appear atop a top prospect list that BA would compile. Are the lists based on performance more accurate? I guess I see a mighty bold claim that these are the lists that we should be following, not to mention Mr. Nation's tone that seems to be mandatory among those that prefer production over projection. Until he backs his information up with historical results, his information is just as big of a tool to use as BA's top prospect lists. And since I believe amateur statistics shouldn't be taken so seriously, it could also be argued that his lists are to statheads what BA's list are to scout heads. He's not really doing anything different, although he claims to be.

I'll believe it when I see it KC. Don't get your hopes up http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

I'm sure they get permission ahead of the draft. I think there is a letter that just needs to be signed and submitted to the comissioiner's office. I see no reason why Jemile would decline, since the negotiations between he and the Brewers were very cordial.

Yes, the Brewers would need to receive Jemile's permission to draft him again, no matter when that would happen.

It's actually a pretty easy and generic thing to say right now, because the talent at the top favors the pitchers pretty heavily right now. There is no Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Rickie Weeks or Delmon Young. While a player can always emerge, there usually aren't too many surprising regarding the talent at the very top. As it should be, it's not so much as to what the Royals need, but what's available.