colbyjack

I'm going to share this, only because I don't want to sound like "I don't you so" later.. When I conducted my interview with the Upton family for Perfect Game, my wife peeked over my shoulder to see a picture of both Justin and B.J. Upton on a story of the two of them the summer B.J. was drafted (and was still unsigned at the time) from MLB.com talking about the two of them, particularly how Justin was wowing scouts at the 2002 Area Code Games. Now, I usually don't bring my wife into baseball discussion, and she certainly doesn't know a lick about the draft other than that she knows of my passion for it. Anyway, at the time, several months ago now, she claimed "he's going to be a Brewer," referring to the younger of the two brothers. She also added that it may not be now, meaning this year, but at some point down the road, but she does have some crazy woman-like prophetic powers. If, as Toby and DHonks project, the D-Backs take a pitcher, I think it's more likely that Justin Upton falls than Alex Gordon, since I'm guessing most teams won't be prepared to take Upton with the Royals and Mariners connected with Alex Gordon. So, while my mind says Cameron Maybin or Ryan Braun, my knowledge of not doubting my wife's uncanny powers say Justin Upton http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . If that doesn't jinx the pick, I don't know what does.

Sounds like the D-Backs are almost for-sure going with a pitcher for their pick, which pushes all the hitters down a notch. Is this enough to push Gordon down to the Brewers? I hope so. What makes you say this?

There's one other player I've brought up specifically in conversation with you DHonks. Although I do like Jared Hughes, and I know both he and his father would be pleased to be involved with the Brewers. bjkrautk nailed it.

It still says it for me, and I've been refreshing the site a few times this evening hoping their projection comes up before I go to bed.

I should add, that I already have a favorite for next year's draft, although I'm not sure if the Brewers will be in a position to take the guy since he could go very, very high. DHonks, I know you will, and probably already do, like the guy. Is that a big enough hint?

You're close DHonks, although it's not that hard to figure out. Despite rumors of the Brewers being interested in Romero, he's not one of the three I profiled. I think he's a lock for the Blue Jays at #6, but I doubt he goes before that. Zimmerman isn't the 3rd player either, since as I've noted before, I think he's a lock to go to Washington. Since we don't have a 2nd rounder, a couple of faves for the 3rd round pick include Rio Hondo JC RHP Kenny Maiques and California prep C Charlie Cutler. Jeremy Hellickson is as well if he somehow makes it to that selection, as is David Adams. Aaron Thompson, Trevor Bell, Ryan Mount, Reese Havens, Brian Matusz, Travis Wood and Jeff Lyman are a few other of my faves that could factor in rounds 3-5. All prep players, with the exception of Maiques.

I hope you're kidding DHonks, because usually I'm quite vocal about whom I believe should be the pick. Last year it was Sowers, who I wanted since 2001, when I felt he could have been our first round pick despite his insistance on attending college. 2001 was also the year in which I stated if there was any possible way Casey Kotchman fell that we HAD to take him (at the time, there didn't seem to be any chance Kotchman would fall, and this is why you see so many Kotchman jokes pointed in my direction, which I thoroughly enjoy). Past Sowers, I really liked Chris Nelson, and I made my frustration in the Rogers pick pretty well known, as much as I like his promise. 2003 was a no-brainer. It came down to Weeks and Young, basically whomever the D-Rays didn't take, and so far it appears as though both are living up to their expectations. However, I among several others were very fond of Adam Loewen, a player that many preferred over both Young and Weeks at the time. While he's starting to get his career back on track, it's a good thing he signed with the O's as a DFE before the 2003 took place. 2002 was the year of Scott Moore, whom I believe would not only fill a need at 3B (although I felt he should be tried at SS for as long as possible), but also had a very good, polished bat. Thankfully, the Brewers made the right pick in Fielder, whom I initially opposed until seeing him in person at the pre-draft workout at Miller Park. I know almost the entire 2002 draft angered everyone that followed here and on the chat rooms. As noted above, in 2001 I was all about Kotchman. I didn't expect him to fall, and with the Brewers seemingly in greater need for positional prospect, John VanBenschoten, Gabe Gross and Jake Gautreau were among my favorites. Another Southern 2B, Mike Wood, was rumored to be in the running for our pick, but I don't think many people were fond of that rumor. In 2000 I was rooting for Nady if he fell (which he did, but most people, including myself, didn't understand the full Boras implications at the time, and Nady hasn't come close to fulfilling expectations), Rocco Baldelli (who went to the D-Rays 7th overall IIRC) or Aaron Heilman. While David Krynzel still hasn't made it up to stay (I don't see him sticking with his recent callup), he still looks to be the best pick at the time we took him. Although, the 2000 draft is probably one of the most disappointing in recent memory. As for this year, while I have been a big fan of Romero, and liked him more than most even entering the season, I entered the season targeting Luke Hochevar and Tyler Greene with our first round pick. Hochevar's & Greene's affiliation with Scott Boras caused them to fall in my mind immediately upon finding out that they were indeed involved with the super-agent, while several players have emerged that I really like, including Romero, Ryan Zimmerman and Jay Bruce. I have always enjoyed Ryan Braun, although I still have some reservations about him. Hochevar had a great season, while Greene has slipped in the eyes of scouts a little bit. On top of that, both Katuluu and xisxisxis have sworn me to keep my mouth shut about my favorite prospect, knowing I'll jink the pick anyway (which looking at my track record probably is a good thing). This year there are so many players that I like, because I think this is really a strong draft year filled with good to great positional prospects, that I haven't really had to target on that one player. To be honest, Romero isn't even my favorite of players that could be at our pick. If there was any chance Ryan Zimmerman could slip past the Nationals, he would be my #1 (knowing Upton & Gordon won't fall). I haven't been more vocal about the pick recently because I know I'm going to be happy with it, unless the Brewers really surprise all of us. I have already written three stories for the three players that I feel are most likely to be selected by the Brewers, and have sent those stories to Brian who is poised to post one of those three stories when the pick is announced. So, I'll ask you, who do you think those three players are?

Are you prepared to not see a guy like Pelfrey or Hochevar sign until next spring? Both are Boras advisees, and both are going to take a lot to sign. Given the trends of how long it takes college pitchers to sign, much less those advised by Boras, we're not even going to see these players signed as Brewers for a long, long time. Personally, I'm prepared for that, and maybe you are too KC, but I think a lot of people would have a problem with that. Maybe not now, but they'll start sweating in August, then September, then before the end of the year, etc. I entered the spring with Hochevar as my favorite for the fifth overall pick, hoping he would fall that far. Without a doubt, it appears as though both Hochevar and Pelfrey will be available when we pick. Gord Ash is already on record stating that they probably won't pick a Boras player, particularly a pitcher, pointing out that the risk often isn't worth the reward. Not only does it take a long time to sign, but then you have to deal with arbitration each and every year, assuming such a player makes the big leagues, and when such a player reaches free agency you can almost be assured that they will not stay in town, unless the parent teams pays handsomely to make that happen. And there's no immediate pressure to fill "needs." That's not what the draft is about. As soon as the Brewers try to fill their future 3B or C need, the sooner they fail themselves. That doesn't mean that taking a 3B or a catcher in the first round is a bad idea, since there are a few players at those positions that fit for the 5th overall pick.

The Northwoods League's #1 prospect from last summer, Lance Broadway, has vaulted up draft boards according to BA's Draft Tracker, and is now being considered for a first-round pick, jumping up to 16th on BA's list: Texas Christian righthander Lance Broadway, considered a consensus supplemental or second-round talent three weeks ago, has surged into the middle of the first round for several reasons. First and foremost, Broadway finished a stellar season--15-1, 1.62, with 151 strikeouts and just 35 walks in 117 innings--with three quality starts against regional opponents. He tossed back-to-back shutouts against No. 1 Tulane (a four-hit, 10-strikeout complete-game performance on May 20) and Southern Mississippi (6 IP, 9 SO), then beat Stanford on Friday with a six-hitter, giving up one run and striking out seven. Broadway is efficient, commands his average fastball well and has one of the draft's best curveballs. Polished college righthanders with a plus pitch are hard to find this year, and Broadway's recent efforts vaulted him past Miami's Cesar Carrillo and Massachusetts' Matt Torra as the top righty not represented by Scott Boras on most draft boards. Broadway would be the 2nd #1 Northwoods League prospect to go in the first-round in consecutive years, as Thomas Diamond went in the first round to the Rangers a year ago. All the more reason to go check out the Mallard, Express, Woodchucks, etc. this summer. Ryan Zink, a former Brewer draftee, will be pitching for the Mallards again this summer (hint, hint). http://www.baseballamerica.com/images2005/lbroadway425325aw.jpg

From BA's Draft Tracker on Cameron Maybin: Clubs don?t doubt Maybin?s talent, but his reported asking price and the trend of drafting college players makes his draft position uncertain. I wouldn't give into his asking price. He's committed to Southern. Make him sweat first. He should sign for slot value.

Hey, I'm all for joining the D-Backs bandwagon for the day if it means hoping one of Upton or Gordon falls http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

I've thought of that too. Not a good time to be experiencing ezboard problems. Draft day is usually our busiest day of the year, and the boards have already been slow the past few days.

I also am expecting the Dbacks to draft a college pitcher. No insider info, and I'm not getting on the horn w/my insiders, since they aren't named Mike Rizzo. I just have a feeling they'd love a top starter who can jump to AA right now, and be slotted behind Ortiz, Webb, Vazquez, and Halsey come next July. If you're going to take a top pitcher, you're not going to see him at AA this year. Hochevar & Pelfrey both have pitched a ton of innings, and both will likely take a while to sign since they are advised by Boras. Even if they weren't advised by Boras they still would likely take a long time to sign, like Humber, Sowers & Verlander all did last year. I know someone else (molitorfan I think) mentioned on another thread how they were ready to adopt the D-Backs as their 2nd team to join you DHonks, but if they pass on Upton I would advise such a person to quickly change their mind. You don't get the chance to take a player of Upton's caliber very often, and to pass on him because of perceived need would be extremely foolish. I can see passing on Upton to take Gordon, but that's about it. They can always use their depth of positional prospects to trade for a proven pitcher.

This may sound crazy, but with the way Parra has been pitching recently, I'm really tempted to tune into the Stars game this evening in lieu of the Brewer broadcast. I guess I can always stay tuned into the game reports. Anyway, the new BA came out today, and there is a nice note on Ryan Anderson, the Little Unit, under their Indy ball coverage:

Colby (or anyone), how does Bruce's bat at this point compare to Daric Barton and Neil Walker's at the same stage? His bat is probably comparable to Barton's at a similar stage. While Neil Walker is a fine hitter, I believe he's going to have to stay behind the plate to be a good pro hitter (meaning, relative to position). Bruce is getting a lot of comparisons to Larry Walker, so that tells you what scouts think of his bat. Is there a chance the Brewers take him at 5? Sure. Read my draft preview, and you'll see he's one of the players I profiled in connection to the Brewers as a possibility. No workout information. It came and went I believe without anyone really knowing about it.

Yeah, that guy is throwing darts. He was trying to rationalize his picks a little too much.

Keep in mind that everyone at BA has brought up time and time again that no team is more secretive than the Brewers, so while they're projecting the pick to be either Braun or Tulo, that doesn't mean Maybin is out of the picture. Although I do think the Brewers would like to fill their 3B of the future void, and given the depth of 3B in this draft, you're probably not going to find a better year to do so.

Tulo plays in one of the largest parks in all of college baseball. Both he and Zimmerman hit 4 bombs with wood for Team USA last year, which tied for the team league.

According to BA, Washington taking Zimmerman is probably about as big of a lock as you're going to get. They reportedly brought Maybin in for a workout as well, but any team would be foolish not to have a backup plan. I agree, if Zimmerman is there, he makes too much sense, but unfortunately it doesn't sound as though he will be.

I would probably put Maybin 3rd last year as well, behind Weaver & Drew, and he could have been a strong candidate to go 1st overall given the signability issues.

Isn't it nice that we're not discussing a prep righty with the #5 pick? This year I just feel that everyone is going to be happy with whomever the Brewers pick. Like I've said before, Jack Z. and company are in a great position. We can wait and see who falls, if anyone, and if not, there should be at least 2-3 solid players to choose from, Braun included.

No, that one wasn't intended either http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

I'm happy to see the thread live on, despite the attempts of ezboard to wipe everything out. While I haven't contributed before, this has probably been my most favorite thread to follow. For what it's worth, I enjoyed a 6-pack of Riverwest Stein this evening while grilling some tasty italians and an ear of corn or two. I stopped after that hours ago, but I enjoy hearing the 14+ beer exploits of others. When you're about to stop, have another one (or three) for me!

You said it Toby. I think Weeks' defense at this point in time is just an easy excuse as to why he hasn't already been called up. The real reason he hasn't probably has more to do with the fact that Melvin is trying to deal Spivey before releasing him. Every GM in the league knows what Weeks is doing, and they know that at some point in time Spivey, even as a utility player, will be free on the open market within a few weeks (no pun intended). He'll be up in a matter of weeks, and I can't wait.

I brought this up the other day, but how much do you go through the motions with Junior Spivey hoping to trade him given the way Weeks is hitting? At this point in time, I'm becoming more comfortable with taking a marginal A-ball hitter for Spivey, if that, even if it means we pay most if not all of his remaining 2005 salary. My usual props towards the West Virginia middle infield and to Dana Eveland, who got his ERA under 3.00 again. Those three players probably are my favorite 3 players to follow. I can't believe Hendrickson gave up as many runs as he did giving up as few baserunners as he did. Take away the runs (which is of course easier said than done) and you have a very respectable line.