colbyjack

I am surprised that Fielder's deal was agreed upon prior to going through the arbitration process. The amount isn't all that surprising, it just seems that Boras clients tend to squeeze out as much as possible through this process (or any process when it comes down to money). Who knows, maybe they did, but still, it is a pleasant surprise.

I could see the Nationals being a player for Fielder next offseason, and I doubt the recent acquisition of Adam LaRoche will impede their interest. Mike Rizzo has a history with Scott Boras clients, and certainly wasn't afraid to give Jayson Werth the contract he did. And don't rule out the Yankees, who seem to pursue every big-named free agent. I do agree that the Cubs seem like too good of a fit.

There is some encouraging depth in the Brewers system, but more impact talent, albeit a long ways off. Sorry, I mistyped above. The above comment should have read: "There is some encouraging depth in the Brewers system, but more impact talent in the Pirates system, albeit a long ways off." And as I've also mentioned before, ranking prospects, and then ranking the organizations is somewhat difficult since it is almost completely a subjective conversation. After Callis made the comments that he did, and prior to the BA list coming out I grabbed BA's 2003 prospect handbook from my bookshelf, which IIRC is the earliest one I have. The Cardinals were ranked as something like the 24th best farm system at the time, yet they had guys like Dan Haren and Yadier Molina among the top 10, who, based on their success now would most likely significant alter how the systems are ranked in hindsight. It seems obvious that the Royals have the best system in baseball, but the same can be said for the Brewers in the late 80s. If guys like Moustakas, Hosmer and Myers don't pan out much like Billy Jo Robidoux, Joey Meyer and Glenn Braggs didn't, their #1 ranking won't mean a thing. That is why I think it is important to place some emphasis on a team's recent ability to develop talent. Without a doubt I agree that the Royals have the best system in baseball, but at the same time, they haven't had the best success in recent years turning talented baseball players into productive baseball players (such as Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar and Chris Lubanski). I do recognize the Brewers haven't done as good of a job developing pitchers, but at least some (Rogers and Jeffress, even if he's no longer in the system) have rebounded to reclaim previous expectations to a certain degree.

Just for comparisons sake, did anyone read the Pirates top prospect list? I will be interested to see where BA has them in the organizational rankings, but outside of the guys at the top (Jameson Taillon, Tony Sanchez and Stetson Allie) and two guys I don't know as much about (Luis Heredia and Starling Marte) there doesn't seem to be too much else to get excited about, and all of those guys minus Sanchez are years away from contributing. I like Taillon's chances to making it and enjoying success, but similar to my point much earlier about how the Brewers should be given the benefit of the doubt for developing talent to the big-leagues, the Pirates' track record of doing so with early picks, particularly pitchers, isn't that great. So this goes back to the argument of impact talent vs. depth. There is some encouraging depth in the Brewers system, but more impact talent, albeit a long ways off. If the Pirates aren't rated in the 20s, possibly towards the end with the Brewers, I will be a little suprised, and confused.

Since we're closer to the 2011 draft than the 2010 one, I figured it was time to un-stick the 2010 topics, and added those links to the first post of this thread. I will be sure to add the final draft order once the last potential compensatory pick related free agent signs, and also will be revising my mock draft at that time.

I've written before that both Bradley and Bubba Starling could fall due to their potential 2-sport careers, coupled with what Zach Lee got last year from the Dodgers when everyone thought he was a lock to attend LSU. Starling has made things more interesting by aligning himself with Boras. On the flip side, sometimes it is more appealing to teams to take such a player knowing they can spread their bonus over 5 years, making it less of an initial blow. That said, the Brewers have yet to make that big of a splash in the later rounds of the draft. They have made more modest ones like Gennett, Howell or even how they used to handle their DFE candidates. I'm not saying that is what you were suggesting, that the Brewers may hit the jackpot with someone like Bradley in the 3rd, but I'll believe a scenario like that when it happens based on the team's history. I too like Kelly (and Bradley) quite a bit, and he's one of the more projectable pitchers available in next year's draft. I wrote him (and Bradley) up here in my breakout of some of the more impressionable Aflac All-Americans, as well as here in my Dandy Dozen reports.

With Trevor Hoffman retiring, and Kevin Gregg signing with the Orioles, there are only six unsigned free agents that could effect the 2011 draft order. One of them, Carl Pavano, is expected to re-sign with the Twins, which would reduce the 'worst-case' scenario sandwich round to 29. Last year, the sandwich round lasted only 18 picks. Two years ago, 16. http://www.5tooltalk.com/...fadraftcompensation.html Bummer for the Brewers regarding Hoffman, but congratulations to him on his Hall of Fame career. I'm grateful he finished it with the Brewers.

Here is Rivera's scouting profile from the 2010 draft: http://brewersfandemonium...Selection-Signing-Thread He has a long way to go, but as the report indicates above, which has since been confirmed, he shows a very high aptitude defensively and picks up the game fairly quick. As the draft profile also mentions, there is promise at the plate but he needs to put on some muscle to be able to drive the ball with more authority more consistently. Somewhat similar to Alcides Escobar at a similar stage of his development, but with a much bigger, more projectable frame. Rivera is definitely a player that has been generating some buzz from within the Brewers organization recently, and is one of the bigger sleeper prospects to watch heading into the 2011 season.

I think that's why the team is loading up on some reclamation projects for the outfield, such as Brandon Boggs and Brandon Jones, as the OF would be the one area that is a little concerning when it comes to depth. Even then, guys like Schafer and Gindl (and even Komatsu) could be turned to if absolutely needed. Farris is at AAA for 2B, and Gamel could be plugged in on the corner IF and OF. Counsell may be the starter at SS by midseason depending on how Betancourt fares, Cruz is available as well at the position, while Kottaras, Rivera and Nieves are in line to replace and/or help out Lucroy during his first full professional season. Obviously if the team loses someone like Braun or Fielder it's going to hurt no matter how much talent you have in place to replace them. With any team, no matter how many resources and money they have, you need a little luck, such as good health, to go along with productivity. If you didn't read the chat, 2 small things stood out to me: The team is going to continue to use Gindl in CF to try and maximize his value, while also addressing the biggest team need in CF, while Komatsu may be the team's leadoff hitter of the future given his ability to get on-base.

patrickgpe, I was actually supporting your comments, with mine directed more towards BA/Tom Haudricourt. I don't think I have ever seen a BA list draw less interest. The minor leagues exist for one reason--to make the big club better. Very well, and simply stated DHonks.

Again, I disagree with the notion that the Brewers are lacking talent in the upper levels of the system. Rogers and Rivas provide some nice depth at AAA, with Scarpetta, Peralta and possibly even Heckathorn doing the same at AA. There is also potential help in the bullpen. Just take a peak at Toby's projections for next year's rosters. AAA Nashville and AA Huntsville have strong pitching staffs, and not just made up of castoffs and reclamation projects like Chase Wright: http://brewersfandemonium...of-next-season-s-rosters So, in addition to acquiring Greinke and Marcum this offseason, the Brewers have some encouraging options from within that they can turn to. And I grow more optimistic about Wisconsin's pitching staff every time I look at it. And who did the Brewers lose in their system from trades this offseason outside of Lawrie and Jeffress that effects the depth in the upper levels? Cain and Escobar had already graduated from prospect status, as did Gamel.

I expanded my top 50 prospect list to 100 yesterday: http://www.5tooltalk.com/...pects-top100-1-9-11.html

Player development and player selection are 2 completely different things. Every year players are brought into the system. Some are very talented and will succeed regardless of who's coaching them.. Others can develop if they are coached and used properly. The Brewers track record in developing guys from roster fillers to actual prospects with value just isn't very good. You mention Soto. Well he's been an All Star and he was picked in the 11th round. Heck the Brewers are benefiting from a guy the Cubs developed, Casey McGehee. What about Cain and Escobar, two big parts to acquire Greinke? Roque Mercedes and Cole Gillespie to acquire Felipe Lopez? Darren Ford and Steve Hammond for Ray Durham? I'll grant you that Lopez and Hammond aren't on the same level as Garza, but Garza isn't on the same level as Greinke, and Lopez and Durham were key acquisitions for the time at the time the Brewers got them. Plus, don't understate the importance of developing first-round picks. Just because Weeks, Fielder, Braun, etc. were selected early doesn't mean the importance of developing is lessened. And what about late-round scores such as Corey Hart, Jonathan Lucroy, John Axford and Zach Braddock? I would argue their track record developing prospects into players is very good.

We can only wish the Brewer player development were this successful. Huh? What have the Cubs developed in recent years, especially in relationship to the Brewers? Also, the timing of the comment is curious given the players the Brewers used to acquire Greinke & Marcum. Good acquisition for the Cubs. Garza is a guy a lot of people around here would have been plenty of happy to get before Greinke. Like the Greinke deal, the Cubs had to give up some good players to get him, and already had a solid rotation without him.

I should have re-phrased my comment from above in which I said that I would take two bats in the first round. I should have said that I would support taking two bats in the first round. You could make an argument for any combination. All I know that after spending a lot of premium picks on pitchers over the years, the Rays certainly wish they had an impact bat or two to turn to these days. It's not always so easy to say that finding replacement bats is easier, or cheaper. You need to do a good job developing all kinds of talent to succeed.

I would take two bats in the first round just because I feel as though you have a better bet to get an impact bat in round one, and it's easier to find arms, or at least have more luck with arms exploding, past the first round than you do with hitters. I'm also a big fan of Blake Swihart, Derek Fisher, Jackie Bradley, Jr. Bradley in particular could be in Milwaukee within 2 years, as his defense and intangibles aren't going to slow him down one bit. GT's Jed Bradley is one of my favorites among the pitchers that may be available at 12 or 15. It's hard to project the 2nd and 3rd rounds at this point, because so many players in that range could move one way or the other pretty significantly. Among some hitters, Daniel Camarena and Dan Vogelbach could be interesting prep first basemen. Vogelbach is the second coming of Prince Fielder, and I personally like Camarena's ability at the plate probably more than most. Prep infielder Sean Trent, TCU outfielder Jason Coats, St. John's SS Joe Panik and Virginia 3B Steven Proscia are also among some of my faves. Some college pitchers in that area include Adam Conley, Logan Verrett, Sam Stafford and Noe Ramirez. Philip Pfiefer, John Magliozzi, Bryan Brickhouse and John Curtiss are a handful of talented prep arms that could be in that range. If the Brewers get a sandwich pick should Hoffman sign elsewhere, that opens another discussion about a huge pool of players that currently project to go somewhere between #15 overall and the team's 2nd round pick. Locals that could factor into the early mix include two players from the Chicago area, Nick Burdi and Charlie Tilson, as well as Brendon Hayden from Twin Lakes.

TheCrew07, what if the Brewers get to and/or win the World Series in one of the next two seasons? The ultimate goal, for every team including the Rays, is to win it all. That window may have closed for the Rays, as they shouldn't just assume that because they are healthier from top to bottom gives them a better chance to rebound from all of the losses they suffered this offseason. The A's felt the same way a few years ago, loaded up on prospects and draft picks and still haven't come close to sniffing playoff success since. It's a lot more difficult to make the playoffs than many to most people think, and shouldn't be taken lightly. And I don't recall anyone saying that being in the bottom tier talent-wise is surprising. Some, myself included, are just challenging whether it is so obvious that the Brewers have the worst system in all of baseball.

In the latest AskBA, Jim Callis touches on questions about the Royals system and where it stands after the Greinke trade: http://www.baseballameric...ask-ba/2011/2611113.html We haven't begun putting the 2011 Top 100 together, but I think the Royals will at least tie the record. Hosmer, Myers, Moustakas, Lamb and Montgomery all ranked among my 25 best prospects when I did a personal Top 50 for the Handbook. Colon, Duffy, Dwyer and Odorizzi all will make my personal Top 100 and I expect them to make the consensus Baseball America list as well. Crow and Jeffress have a chance, but I think they both may fall short of the final Top 100. If you follow BA you'll know that Odorizzi was previously labelled as a fringe top-100 prospect, and now seems like a sure thing. Jeffress didn't even seem to be a blip on the top 100 list, and now takes the "fringe" tag from Odorizzi. I really don't mean to challenge Jim Callis this much, who I respect quite a bit and have carried several offline conversations with, but this does represent an inconsistency of reporting. What has changed between the end of the season and now that would have changed anything when it comes to prospect evaluation and ranking? Of course, Odorizzi going from the Brewers projected #1 prospect and the Royals #9 prospect is pretty indicative of the difference of systems, and lends support to just how bad the Brewers farm system is.

The 2011 draft crop stands to get a little stronger, as it has been learned that Brian Goodwin will be eligible for the 2011 draft. Here is a report I did on Brian Goodwin here on these forums a couple of years ago. He's long been a favorite of mine, and I'm pretty excited about his availability, and think he would be a good fit for the Brewers with one of their first-round picks (especially if they're looking for a relatively quick sign with the Covey compensatory selection). Miami-Dade's season (and many to most of the warm weather jucos) starts at the end of January, roughly 3 weeks before the beginning of D1 baseball.

If money is an issue, look for some on Craig's List or some other method. Due to the energy credit, a lot of people replaced furnaces in the past few years that didn't necessarily need to. You may even be able to call some heating/cooling contractors to see if they have any deals. I worked with a plumber a few years ago that gave me a great deal on a water heater when he bought a bunch of them (I guess way too many) at a really good price. Most contractors that I've dealt with seem to be connected to a certain brand. I have a Lennox high efficiency, no issues at all with it, although I wouldn't expect to after 2 years. If you're not aware, high efficiency furnaces vent out the side of your house, as opposed to the chimney. You can get a small energy credit for capping your chimney as long as nothing else is being exhausted out of it. I have used Droegkamp for about 10 years with very good service and prices. You could probably save some money by shopping around and buying the furnace on your own and hiring an independent plumber to install it. When you do get a new one, you may want to get in the habit of getting your furnace cleaned every 2-3 years. They usually suggest once a year, but that seems unnecessary tome. You can usually find a coupon in the paper/coupon fliers to have this done. Good luck.

My cousin, who has won some awards for his own home brewing efforts, is involved with a new website that focuses on craft brews from the Midwest. Check it out: http://www.midwestbeer.com/

I just want to point out that the Brewers open the 2011 season in Cincinnati. I plan on being there for the opener on Thursday (aside from games played in Japan, I think the Reds historically have always had the first game to open the season). Sorry I can't offer any advice about the city, I've only been there once before, but I think it will be a pretty exciting way to open the season given the expectations. Thanks rawbecht for the tip on the German beer hall. That looks to be a must stop.

Why? What does the past 5-7 years have anything to do with the Brewers' current farm system? I guess I could see the stance that the Brewers have done a good job developing talent, so they might get a little more out of this group of prospects than, say, the Pirates, but that has nothing to do with where the farm system currently stands and should have no impact on the ranking. You aren't ranking the organization, you're ranking the players within the organization. But they are ranking the organizations, as he said the Brewers have the worst system in all of baseball. And there isn't a formula to come up with those lists, as they are purely subjective. How a team does developing talent IMO should play a large part in ranking the systems talent-wise. Igor brought up a good example with the Braves. There have been some years where their system is lean on talent, but they still are given the benefit of the doubt because they historically have done a better job developing big-league players, even if the players in their system at any given time aren't necessarily impact players. I don't mean to bash BA, because I like their work and have been a long-time subscriber, but they do have their own biases, and those biases play into their subjective rankings. After all, if BP's Kevin Goldstein thinks the Royals went from having the best farm system in all of baseball to arguably the best farm system of all time due to the players acquired in the Greinke trade, obviously there was some good talent given up in Jeffress and Odorizzi. And it doesn't matter where someone ultimately views a player's future, such as Jeffress and Rogers as relievers, Lawrie as a LF, etc., the tools are what should have them ranked. Rogers will still be groomed as a starter (as far as we know at this point in time) and is one of a few very list of players that can reach triple digits. Remember when Callis had Nick Hagadone ranked so highly in the Red Sox system? Most had him pegged as a future reliever as well, but Callis didn't, and was a big reason why the Red Sox were ranked higher than where many to most may have put them (I believe two years ago). Daniel Bard was ranked pretty highly as well that same year, another pitcher that projected as a future reliever (which he is). At the time, that wasn't presented as big of a negative as it is/was with Rogers and Jeffress now. As others have noted, the system still has quite a few players that could contribute at the big-league level in the next 1-2 years, and that also should stand for something. The impact talent is absolutely lacking, but the Brewers should continue to procure talent from within to fill crucial spots on the roster, which is what the system should be doing. I agree that they should be among the worst, but again, there are still plenty of potential big-league contributors sprinkled in the mix, arguably more than a lot of other teams.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the simple fact that the Brewers have done a good job developing talent from within should stand for something. I don't know which teams 20-29 are, but I have a hard time believing many teams have done a better job developing talent in the last 5-7 years than the Brewers have. In addition, the BA staff does not have a Brewer homer. I'm guessing Callis still has the Red Sox in the top 5 despite the Gonzalez trade.

The only difference between a guy flaming out at AA/AAA or rookie ball is that perhaps you can fool someone into thinking they are a decent prospect in A-ball and include them in a trade for a major leaguer. Other than that there isn't much difference But that's a huge difference. Draft picks ultimately turn out to be valuable to the organization in so many ways, shapes and forms. The longer the prospect is successful, the the more value that player has to the organization, whether it be on performance, in trade, etc. The only question is whether there were a number of guys drafted shortly after them who go on to be solid major leaguers. The gauge of a draft is whether or not overall you did better, the same, or worse than most other teams. I know you use this for both the NFL and MLB to gauge a team's success drafting. I don't necessarily agree with the rationale, as you need to use the draft, regardless of what other teams are doing, to build a successful foundation for your organization. I could care less how the Brewers compare to other teams, the only thing that matters is the end result. If the end result isn't good, something needs to change. I harp on this quite a bit, and talk about it as selecting the right player. I often use this in reference to teams that don't take players due to their financial aspirations. I don't have a problem with the Pirates passing on B.J. Upton in 2002, or the Padres not taking Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander or Jeff Niemann in '04, but you had better make sure you take the right player when you do so. The draft is all about players, not teams, and each draft has individual talent. In a similar light, I don't have a problem with the Brewers taking players that were relative surprises where they were taken, such as Max Walla, Evan Frederickson or even Josh Murray. However, and again, you have to make sure you take the right players. The Brewers have had some late-round scores, but lately they've been missing on their early round "reaches." And just because the 2000 draft wasn't particularly fruitful (at least in the first round), that doesn't mean the selection of David Krynzel wasn't disappointing.